Mini 1122: Mafia.Exe Game Over


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Post Post #1375 (ISO) » Tue May 03, 2011 11:19 am

Post by Mute »

Llamarble wrote:
Nathan votes, no 2-scum quickhammer = Nathan confirmed town.

Wrong. The scum have a total of 2 votes. So a quickhammer will only happen if a townie votes for another townie.
All we rule out here is that Buttons and Nath are both town.
We rule out that you and I are both town by similar logic.

So Conspiracy has 2 50/50 chances to make, except
I have role information
that makes Buttons a bad lynch.
I'm a bad lynch too for less provable reasons (the setup isn't really complete without me, I would have had to perform a gamespanning evil plot, etc etc.)


AtE. >_>

Anyways, you're right. By that logic, it would make sense that if a townie votes a townie then it's game over, as both scum'd quick-lynch. Your lynch will go miles towards nailing the last scum.
Though now for the sake of having some semblance of discussion, do tell this "role information" you have.
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Post Post #1376 (ISO) » Tue May 03, 2011 11:20 am

Post by TheButtonmen »

Llamarble wrote:Whatever, just vote Buttons, I won't quickhammer, and we'll have proved I'm not scum with Nath. OK?


Mute wrote:No.


Llamarble wrote:But you supposedly think he's confirmed scum.
So why not?


Mute wrote:Because, why should I listen to you again?


Llamarble wrote:Because what I'm saying makes objective sense. If you believe somebody is confirmed scum, you should not be worried about voting them.


Mute wrote:But I also see you as confirmed scum, so there's no reason not to keep my vote right where it is.


Llamarble wrote:Well this way, if you lynch me and I flip scum you can get your buttons lynch tomorrow for sure.


You see Llama if he voted me then it would be to obvious that he and Nath are scum buddies when you didn't quickhammer me, so they are stuck at the moment as none of the townies are putting down any votes they can exploit.
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Post Post #1377 (ISO) » Tue May 03, 2011 11:49 am

Post by Llamarble »

Right, my goal was to eliminate llama+nath as a possible scumteam, thereby confirming me as town to Buttons.
Then Buttons could vote Mute with me, reducing the possibilities to me + Buttons or Nath + Mute.
Actually we can achieve the same thing if Buttons votes Mute and Nath doesn't hammer;
that would confirm Nath as town to Mute and force Mute to vote buttons or me interchangeably,
And after Mute's Buttonvote and my nonhammer it would come to the same thing.

So TBM, if you're feeling gamestaking-confident of me being town,
Putting your vote on Mute would reduce the possible scumteams to you & me vs Nath + Mute.
I suppose I could put a vote on Nath to accomplish the same thing as well, but if you do it I don't have to deal with any risk, hehe.
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Post Post #1378 (ISO) » Tue May 03, 2011 11:52 am

Post by Mute »

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Post Post #1379 (ISO) » Tue May 03, 2011 12:43 pm

Post by Llamarble »

Nathanael wrote:
Tox+Llama is the scumteam. I'll to eat my shoes if they aren't.

Heh
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Post Post #1380 (ISO) » Tue May 03, 2011 12:47 pm

Post by Mute »

Ya know what?

I'm going to get some popcorn.
I'll be back when CS gets in here and makes up his mind.
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Post Post #1381 (ISO) » Tue May 03, 2011 12:57 pm

Post by Llamarble »

Okay, I think Nath is scum off some more reading.
I think the thing to do now is just organize my Mute case and wait for Conspiracy.
Then if Conspiracy shows interest in voting someone other than Mute, I'll make my Nath vote and hopefully make it a decision between Nathmute and Llamabuttons.
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Post Post #1382 (ISO) » Tue May 03, 2011 6:35 pm

Post by Nathanael »

Mute, if you believe that I am town, please vote Buttons. Don't do it because it was llama to say so, do it because you believe me to be town.
As I already said, it is much better in all cases to lynch Buttons today, and it should be entirely obvious to you at this point that he is scum.

and people, please notice how clever TBM is just ignoring my last post. -.-
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Post Post #1383 (ISO) » Tue May 03, 2011 7:09 pm

Post by Llamarble »

COLLECTED CASE AGAINST MUTE:

Holistic stuff:
He has spent the entire game tunneling me. There's no evidence of him reconsidering or trying to understand what's going on.
He is not trying to figure the game out but rather to push my lynch based on anything that comes up.

Specific things that town don't do and/or scum usually do:
Lining up lynches & attacking soft town targets
Having me as his top suspect while being highly confident Krazy was fakeclaiming
This post shows the nightkills make a lot of sense if Mute is scum.
The same post goes over Mute being too sure of Krazyscum.

Voting Record:
Ant was on that abysmal D1 Neruzobvtown wagon (with Nath, heh)
After that Mute's on me in every single votecount, haha. (He voted and unvoted Krazy inbetween a pair)

Posts 84 up to and including 90 of DRK's ISO explain:
Mute thought there might be a jester (because he saw scummy behavior and knew bgg wasn't scum)
Mute wanted to keep bgg around for a bit and then lynch him later. (Very convenient for scum considering Xinetown was the d1 lynch alternate.)
Mute's inconsistent stance on bgg (HoS let's lynch d2 -> not a scum candidate)


I suppose I'll make similar posts for the reasons I'm town and Nath is scum.
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Post Post #1384 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2011 5:11 pm

Post by Llamarble »

Ugh, I lost my post I was writing. Starting over:
REASONS I'M TOWN:

Holistic:
I have done many things that could be spun as scummy (flippant voting, antagonism, etc) which scum would avoid for fear of lynch.
I do so because I am confident my towniness will become apparent if I just play to my wincon and try to lynch scum (also NK avoidance D1-3 heh).

I have produced significant original scumhunting content and have been transparent about my thoughtprocess while generating it.
I have cared significantly about situations that turned out to be a choice between lynching two townies.
(What scum would care whether we lynched bgg or Xine D1? If anything scumllama wants the townlynch he's not on to happen so he can call it a CW)
Same for Pappums vs Xine D3. Go read my posting there and tell me with a straight face it's not town trying to figure things out.

Setup:
Town would be underpowered in this setup were it just doc/masons vs RB and to make it worse a scum PRclaim would be very easily believed.
The RB would also be almost completely superfluous;
for it to ever be relevant the RB would need to target the doctor on a night where the doctor protected the killed guy.
Thus N1 the roleblocker would be useful 1/9 * 1/12 = 1% of the time. It gets better later, but not much.
Remember Grey claimed D1 in this game, which amped the odds up significantly, so don't go all counterexampley.
So I challenge everyone to recall the last mini normal you saw with an almost completely useless power role.

Roleclaim:
Here I clearly demonstrate the effect my tracker results had on my reads.
If I were scum I'd have had to be planning this the whole game AND gotten lucky on the setup for it to be viable.
Anyone seen a devious whole game PRclaimplan blasting a buddy to death along the way with NO GUARANTEE it would be even remotely helpful?

Krazy:
I, more than any other player excepting Grey, was responsible for Krazy's lynch D2.
When you're scum, you don't want your buddies lynched because that is how you lose.
Utterly trashing a buddy D2 _While_ pointing out scum might be bussing for towncred would be an abysmally low percentage play for scum.
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Post Post #1385 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2011 5:50 pm

Post by Mute »

=_=

Llama, I am sure it was asked before, but I want to ask it again.
I want you to answer this question as clearly, simply, and as condensed as possible. Layman's terms here is what I'm looking for.

Setup theories:
x VT's, 2 masons, 3 scum (1 RB, 1 goon, 1 unknown), 1 doctor.
or
x VT's, 2 masons, 3 scum (1 RB, 1 goon, 1 unknown), 1 doctor, 1 tracker.

Your argument for your claim is that town would be underpowered without a tracker.
My question is this:
why would town be underpowered if there were not a tracker, and by extension, if town is underpowered, how is scum overpowered if there is not a tracker or similar investigative role?

My two cents on this have already been said, but I'll sum up my reason your claim is a lie and you're scum for it. No, this won't be about how you're the RB, I already explained that.

Let's take the first instance as the setup. the RB and doc negate one another, leaving the rest as vanilla roles. The masons cannot recruit townies, and they basically serve to confirm to two players each other is town. So, RB is useless against them, as well as the other VT's. This I find to be balanced. Town can be hindered by scum, and town can defend itself with it's PR. an even 1:1 PR exchange.

With your example, the second setup theory, this is not the case at all.
The tracker only serves as a demi-cop, unable to detect alignment but instead if X acts during the night. A RB can negate the tracker, but that leaves the doctor to protect against the NK. A 2:1 exchange of PR's. Now, you say that without you, a claimed tracker, the town is underpowered, but from where I'm sitting, with your role-claim of tracker, town is either balanced with or over-powered to scum. For the town to be underpowered without you, there must be a scum role that can evade a tracker, or is immune from being tracked or bypassing doctor protections.
This worries me. If that is the case, say we have a setup of:
x VT's, 2 masons, 1 Doc, 1 tracker, 1 scumRB, 1 scum goon, 1 scum GF
then even then the GF would serve as a superfluous role. I can rule this out as thanks to the mass claim earlier and the lack of a counter claim to krazy, there is no cop in the setup and therefore no need for a scum-role that returns town when investigated.
So, the setup that comes to mind:
x VT's, 2 masons, 1 doc, 1 tracker, 1 scumRB, 1 goon, 1 hitman/assassin
this is a 2:2 exchange of PR's. Sure it's not balanced, as the doctor can be RB'd as well as ignored by the hitman, but the tracker serves as a counter to the hitman. This setup I cannot believe either, as it underpowers the doc.
Take the tracker out of the setup:
x VT's, 2 masons, 1 doc, 1 scumRB, 1 goon, 1 hitman/assassin
With this, you are correct, town is severely underpowered. The doctor can be RB'd and ignored, and there's nothing town can do about it. This is the error I see with your claim, aside from the earlier reasons. Unless you know for sure what the setup of the scumteam is, it's folly to claim town is underpowered without you. Let's see what happens without a tracker/similar role, and with 2 goons and a RB.
x VT's, 2 masons, 1 doc, 1 scumRB, 2 goons

a 1:1 exchange of PR's.

My point: Llama must have knowledge of the scumteam setup for him to claim that without a town investigative role, town is underpowered and scum is overpowered; the only way for this to be true, him having knowledge of the scum setup, is if he himself is scum.

Now, back to my question:
Llama:
why would town be underpowered if there were not a tracker, and by extension, if town is underpowered, how is scum overpowered if there is not a tracker or similar investigative role?
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Post Post #1386 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2011 5:56 pm

Post by Mute »

BTW:
an answer of "just 'cuz" or something similarly worded will not suffice. I need something descriptive, detailed, and yet still adhering to the K.I.S.S. mantra (keep it simple stupid).
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Post Post #1387 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2011 6:34 pm

Post by Llamarble »

10 VTs against 3 goons is heavily scum-favored, so town gets PRs to compensate.
A masonpair and a doc and 7 VTs vs 3 goons would be somewhat weaker than typical town power expectations on MS.
Also giving scum a roleblocker in that setup would be totally bizarre as explained in my above post.

The actual setup of doc + masonpair + tracker vs goon + RB + ? is very nice.
Tracker's value is enhanced by being able to catch the RB or the shooter and the RB now has 2 targets.
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Post Post #1388 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2011 7:20 pm

Post by Llamarble »

A couple relevant posts I've made against Nath:
Here I cover Nath's egregiously opportunistic "i'mma hammer llama" and his "llama+Mute likelier than tox+Mute."
Here I cover Nath's interaction with Krazy.
This covers some other points.
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Post Post #1389 (ISO) » Wed May 04, 2011 7:22 pm

Post by Llamarble »

Ball's in your court, mister Conspiracy.
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Post Post #1390 (ISO) » Thu May 05, 2011 2:30 am

Post by ConSpiracy »

Imma back.
Read every thing.
Expect a good post today.
If somebody has tools to fix my scumdar, pm me.
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Post Post #1391 (ISO) » Thu May 05, 2011 4:40 am

Post by Llamarble »

I realized last night before bed that although my hammer was obviously a bad decision,
there's no scummotive for it (assuming Buttons is my only plausible buddy) since the decision was between Nath/Tox and of the two Tox was quite convinced I was town.
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Post Post #1392 (ISO) » Thu May 05, 2011 8:39 am

Post by ConSpiracy »

So let's analyse...

Mute: Llam + Buttons
TBM: Mute + Nath
Nath: Llam + Buttons
Llam: Mute + Nath (did take long to figure it out)

Mute reasonings why only a Llam/Buttons scumteam makes sense are bull shit.
Llam's case of Mute reeks of a scum-tell I once read somewhere: Projecting scummy things you did yourself on others. Though he does have a point in NK analysis.
TBM still considering a Llam/Mute scumteam is odd.
Mute's defence on the NK analysis is bad.
Nath's post about TBM considering a Llam/Mute scumteam is right, but he is using it for a wrong cause. And that is not the only BS he makes about TBM.
Llam's quickhammer post is HORRIBLE.
TBM telling Llam why Mute doesn't vote is even worse and reeks as a scum convo to me.
Llam's charming into two scumteams: Mute + Nath/ Llam + Buttons is bad.
I still don't like Llam's "scum RB must be relevant" theory. Hasn't he ever heard of millers/GFs with no cops?
Mute has a point with his "how does Llam know it is 2goonRB case"
And there was no Nath/Tox decision. It was a Tox/Tox decision.

Notes:
I still don't think Mute+Nath can be a scumteam together.
Nath's scumread on Llam seems fake to me.
TBM is towniest in my eyes.
Llam is scummiest in my eyes.

I don't like how town has divided himself in two teams. I don't believe the scumteams can only have a Mute-Nath, Llam-Buttons. Especially since I don't think those are the teams.
All four of you, I know who you will vote when LyLo comes up. If I tell you who to vote, will you do that? the answer can significantly change my idea who to vote.

That is all at the moment. I will make a VCA tomorrow and hopefully have a vote up then.
If somebody has tools to fix my scumdar, pm me.
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Post Post #1393 (ISO) » Thu May 05, 2011 9:26 am

Post by Llamarble »

I am voting Mute.
If so instructed, I will vote Nath.
If it's a choice between lynching Buttons and lynching me, I will vote Buttons since though I think he's town he's not confirmed.
I would probably yell at you a lot and would seriously consider voting Nath anyway just to prove it's either Mute-Nath or me+Buttons.
I do think my reads are better than yours considering I have significantly more information than you (both my own alignment and my result on buttons).

If you're planning to lynch me, my vote can do no harm if I'm scum so you _must_ at least give me the opportunity to rule out two of the possible scumpairs by voting either Mute or Nath before considering a vote on me.

Conspiracy, if you are currently considering any scumteams other than:
Llama + TBM
Llama + Nath
Mute + TBM
Mute + Nath
You should not be. The other scumteams have had _days_ to quickhammer someone.

What about my case on Mute is a scummy thing I did myself?

I know there's an RB because Grey got blocked N1 & N2 and I got blocked last night.
I also know there's one goon. It seems reasonable the third mafia is a goon;
A rolecop would make me too powerful + a mason would've been shot sooner & Krazy shot DRK N1 so there's not a ninja.

I've never seen an investigation immune GF in a game with no investigative roles. It is at least a rare thing.
And a near-worthless RB would be even weirder.
At a _minimum_ you have to admit it would be highly unusual and thus believing me scum makes the setup less plausible.

There absolutely was a Nath/Tox decision to be made.

ConSpiracy wrote:
Hiraki wrote:Not very nice CS.

Wut?

So guys, do we want to give Mute the last vote?
Right now it will be:
Nath (3) - TBM, Llam, Xtox
Xtox (3) - CS, Hiraki, Nath
Guess we can't do a thing about it.

And I approve of the extension, easter is a busy time.

So while I'll agree my Tox hammer, which was not supposed to be a hammer, was a bad 4AM decision,
There was no scummotive for it unless you think I'm scum with Nath.

You are throwing out Mute+Nath team based on a single post when everything else about it makes sense.
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Post Post #1394 (ISO) » Thu May 05, 2011 9:35 am

Post by Llamarble »

*Buttons or Nath
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Post Post #1395 (ISO) » Thu May 05, 2011 10:01 am

Post by Nathanael »

to be honest, after Mute is showing no sign to vote for Buttons, who is a better lynch in all regards and who he has as an obvious scumread, I am starting to consider a Mute/Buttons team as quite possible again. I'd still probably lynch Llama over Mute, but I'm not sure anymore.


@ConS. I'd really like you to reconsider your read on Buttons. However, I will probably follow you if you choose to vote for Mute/Llama if you can show me your thought process. Right now I am a bit confused again in the Llama/Mute issue (which is why I would really, really, really prefer to lynch Buttons first); but since I'll have to decide sooner or later, maybe getting help from conf-town could be useful.
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Post Post #1396 (ISO) » Thu May 05, 2011 10:28 am

Post by Llamarble »

Conspiracy, before placing a vote please let whoever you were about to vote for vote someone. Then after hammer (can only happen if that person was town so no loss) or nonhammer we rule out half the possible teams.
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Post Post #1397 (ISO) » Thu May 05, 2011 1:04 pm

Post by Llamarble »

Hm, we actually only can rule out one team per crossvoting; I guess I was confused.
CS has less information than anyone here, but we need his vote to lynch scum.
I think the correct move here is for us to narrow it down to two pairs and then have CS choose between the pairs.
So I'll go first and eliminate the possibility of Mute + Buttons.

VOTE: Nathanael
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Post Post #1398 (ISO) » Thu May 05, 2011 1:05 pm

Post by Llamarble »

Now we wait awhile & see if Mute + Buttons hammer.

Buttons should by all means be voting Nath; Nath is confirmed scum to buttons.
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Post Post #1399 (ISO) » Thu May 05, 2011 1:23 pm

Post by Mute »

*sigh*
Llama, I would like to point out your sheer stupidity right now:
you're hoping to see if X + X quickhammer, costing the town the game. How the piss is this pro-town? In Lylo you don't just throw your vote around willy-nilly.
Also, just
HOW
does CS have less info than anyone here?
=_=

Guys can we just make this happen already?
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