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[imaginality]

@S&M re your reason for believing SS's guilty: That gets wifomy though doesn't it?
SS wouldn't fake a guilty on someone he didn't scum read
So a guilty on someone he didn't scum read would have extra town cred
So scum SS would have reason to do that.

And it doesn't change the fact that today is mis-elim and all-but-lose.

I'm not saying the guilty isn't plausible but I want to question and analyse more rather than just assume.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Debunks my theory, not whatever marci posted

[ssbm_Kyouko]

No matter what we elim S_S or Gamma today. I saw Marci suggest she feels better about limming me but there is 50-50 shot at scum in there

[imaginality]

I think town!mastina debunks that though but still I think we are in mlimlo so can we not rush this? I think now that auctions are done it's majority lim, not plurality.

I asked the mod in my PT and it's still day-end plurality today.

I like that you worried about this though - reads town.

[imaginality]

No matter what we elim S_S or Gamma today. I saw Marci suggest she feels better about limming me but there is 50-50 shot at scum in there

Agreed, and there could even be both scum in there if SS is bussing.

@town

if we elim wrong today be ready to slam votes on the other one at start of day tomorrow

[Smoke and Mirrors]

for me, its down to 2 of gamma/something_smart/ssbm_kyouko

ssbm_kyouko by far seems the safest as im having doubt between gamma/something_smart right now.

i feel like i might be being dumb rn t_t being in this position is so hard

I have no clue. SS seemed to think he got an inno on you and that’s why he died, so probably cop, because no one has claimed it..

im thinking deeply of this tho, why wouldn't distance have just straight up claim the inno on me then..? cop only 1 shot, he has no reason to hide his action from us.

What if Imaginality is the partner and not Kyouku? I believe SS and I believe the guilty.

Why would we vote anyone other than the one who’s guiltied?

Why didn’t scum!SS guilty Kyouku then? He wasn’t even sr Gamma?

I believe him and I think Gamma’s caught.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

No matter what we elim S_S or Gamma today. I saw Marci suggest she feels better about limming me but there is 50-50 shot at scum in there

Why in the fuck would we even consider limming SS?

[Gamma Emerald]

That’s definitely fake
But who’s the partner

This isn’t a townie response.

then what would be, huh?

I explained already.

A) SS had no reason to lie about you since you weren’t even on his radat and I told you what I would respond to a fake guilty and B) “that’s fake, who’s the partner”? wouldn’t be it.”

Game’s solved, it’s Kitty/you/and most likely Kyouku, since you and Kyouku had Imaginality as a serious cw to CB by only one vote.

the partner hunting idea come in from the fact that I don't entirely expect to get through this day alive so I'm moreso trying to figure things out for the roleblocker (unless there is none)

[Smoke and Mirrors]

No matter what we elim S_S or Gamma today. I saw Marci suggest she feels better about limming me but there is 50-50 shot at scum in there

Agreed, and there could even be both scum in there if SS is bussing.

@town

if we elim wrong today be ready to slam votes on the other one at start of day tomorrow

Why would he bus?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

So my notes were really thinking mastina was scum, so her flip kinda trashes what I had to say for the most part.

S_S, why did you choose to watch Mastina?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

That’s definitely fake
But who’s the partner

This isn’t a townie response.

then what would be, huh?

I explained already.

A) SS had no reason to lie about you since you weren’t even on his radat and I told you what I would respond to a fake guilty and B) “that’s fake, who’s the partner”? wouldn’t be it.”

Game’s solved, it’s Kitty/you/and most likely Kyouku, since you and Kyouku had Imaginality as a serious cw to CB by only one vote.

the partner hunting idea come in from the fact that I don't entirely expect to get through this day alive so I'm moreso trying to figure things out for the roleblocker (unless there is none)

You bid 499 on GF correct?

So how does rb affect SS’ result?

[marcistar]

What if Imaginality is the partner and not Kyouku? I believe SS and I believe the guilty.

i dont think that would be the case

Why would we vote anyone other than the one who’s guiltied?

Why didn’t scum!SS guilty Kyouku then? He wasn’t even sr Gamma?

ahh im not sure im so so scared i dont want us to vote wrong t_t
im in thinking too much mode

[imaginality]

On a different note, the 301 bid for hitman. I think there are two possible scenarios:

1. Gamma is scum and bid that much, and other scum has 300 or less remaining (otherwise I think they'd bid higher) and Gamma either didn't notice that people would notice the 499+301=800 or thought a "scum are framing me" excuse would work
2. Gamma is town and scum bid 301 to likely win it while framing Gamma

[Smoke and Mirrors]

So my notes were really thinking mastina was scum, so her flip kinda trashes what I had to say for the most part.

S_S, why did you choose to watch Mastina?

She claimed a jk on Marci and there was no kill yesterday.

Scum obviously wants to kill Marci and can’t if Mastina continues to jk her.

[Something_Smart]

Yes, why would scum kill us when one member of the team had us completely pocketed?

Oh, I didn't see ssbm's question before; I didn't have a good handle on who was likely to kill whom, and they seemed like a good kill across the board (likely town, mostly townread, strong players, unaccounted-for money).

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Actually, it looks like I’m wrong. Apparently scum has the kill all of the townies - one way or the other. I was telling Pooky in discord, I don’t think we win this, now I actually have hope.

Unfortunately due to the way plurality works, once it is 2:2 unless the 2 townies speedpile onto the scum before the scum speedpile onto a townie, the scum win the plurality by getting to the tie vote first. Then at night, if town oim scum, they still have a kill and its 1:1. Even with plurality in place I think today is still mlimlo unless Imaginality is town and still has his roleblock. Which for now should be kept private info

[imaginality]

Why would we vote anyone other than the one who’s guiltied?

Why didn’t scum!SS guilty Kyouku then? He wasn’t even sr Gamma?

1. Because if we vote wrong today we lose so we have to make sure we vote right not just auto-believe a claim!

2. Maybe thought more town would believe a Gamma guilty than an ssbm one?

[Something_Smart]

im thinking deeply of this tho, why wouldn't distance have just straight up claim the inno on me then..? cop only 1 shot, he has no reason to hide his action from us.

Well, it's possible that he didn't want scum to know he'd spent most of his money.

But yeah I'm not at all convinced that he really did have the cop; it was just the first thing that came to mind when I read how confident he was in you being town. It's a possibility, but not the only one.

[Something_Smart]

S_S, why did you choose to watch Mastina?

She was clearly town and (essentially) confirmed to have the tracker.

[imaginality]

I do lean towards believing SS, btw. I just hate the assumptions being made. Even S&M's assumption mastina's flip

confirms

marci as town is wrong (though I townread her anyway)

[Gamma Emerald]

You bid 499 on GF correct?

So how does rb affect SS’ result?

yes

I'm talking about rb because I'm hoping they can block the scum NK tonight

[Something_Smart]

1. Gamma is scum and bid that much, and other scum has 300 or less remaining (otherwise I think they'd bid higher) and Gamma either didn't notice that people would notice the 499+301=800 or thought a "scum are framing me" excuse would work

Oh yeah, that's a good point. Could have just been a "last day, better spend all my money" thing, considering I would expect him to preempt anyone else bringing it up if he were taking the frame angle.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

What if Imaginality is the partner and not Kyouku? I believe SS and I believe the guilty.

i dont think that would be the case

Why would we vote anyone other than the one who’s guiltied?

Why didn’t scum!SS guilty Kyouku then? He wasn’t even sr Gamma?

ahh im not sure im so so scared i dont want us to vote wrong t_t
im in thinking too much mode

I believe SS isn’t lying. Sure we can take a chance Kyouku is the buddy but why when we have an actual hard guilty on Gamma?

I believe SS, I don’t believe Gamma.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

S_S, why did you choose to watch Mastina?

She was clearly town and (essentially) confirmed to have the tracker.

You mean jk, we had the tracker.

[Something_Smart]

I just hate the assumptions being made

I do agree with this sentiment-- if you're trying to base logic on assumptions, you'd better understand that the logic is only as valid as the assumptions are.

That said, we should be taking some things on probability. All things considered, marci looks pretty likely to be town, so it's probably better to just accept the loss in the rare case where she isn't than to continue to worry about her.