Open 721: Pick Your Poison (Game Over)

[Mathdino]

I am wording this shittily and not elaborating on purpose my prehistoric pal. Please wait.

approx when will you be able to elaborate

[Sunshine13]

@tw

It’s weird. It goes from essentially locktown reading him - to the point of voting with math on one of oxy’s townreads instead of his top scumpick - and what looks like hardcore buddying to be perfectly honest for 100+ posts, then his 162nd post he goes “well, if I missed scum it’s probably math, but after sunshine” while also gushing about his play so far, though I’m uncertain if this is in the context of pintu asking him to think of ofrhz as town, and has appeared concerned regarding this since.

Link for reference.

So... not much progression at all, really.

I’m thinking math was playing with him for a bit, and then he realized this and is trying to back off a little. What I really want is for it to have been in the scum chat that one of his partners was like “uh, math is playing games with you bro, maybe step off the gas a bit?” and they’re frantically thinking how to make it look natural for Oxy to be slowly reversing from that.
—-
Pedit: salty sailor, lol. So to answer your question, I mean, like, well,

You’re not voting for any of your scumpicks, right now. Cool beans you’re being wagoned, but you’ve been pushing a tw ofrhz scumteam for effing ever, man. I appreciate the attention to detail in trying to piss me off with some “you’re an idiot, sunshine” posts, hoping to get me to respond like I did with UD, though. Love your work <3

Also the aforementioned time when you were voting one of your townreads because math was voting them. Let’s vote UD!

But why?

‘cause math and co are too! I take no responsibility for my reads, nosiree!

One more thing, what does this post mean if you’re not scumreading me? It looks to be referring to the wagon against you math quoted a few posts prior, but ofrhz isn’t on the wagon and you claim to be townreading me. Another player you have pushed as scum for the longest time is on it, as well as the person you are currently voting... so I’m confused.

So what do you mean by it being the bottom of your reads list?

[the worst]

Preferably after wagons start to consolidate.

Like I can say any time I am just highly iffy about people who've taken a live and let live approach to you here

[Sunshine13]

Everything after the pedit is @oxy btw

[Sunshine13]

In case it wasn’t obvious

[the worst]

Before I do Oxy (this weekend. Cross my fucking heart.) -- Math or anyone else, do you believe Oxy's read is more nuanced than 1501 describes?

I'm far from unbiased as he's my #1 lynch of choice today but I think I can pull my head out of my ass enough to take others' opinions on board if anyone would like me to consider further.

[Oxy]

@sunshine

it's basically the bottom of my reads list - ofrhz and + sunshine.

The bottom of my reads list would have been tw, ofrhz, skitter, draynth. so the wagon of tw, skitter, draynth, sunshine was the bottom of my reads list minus ofrhz and plus sunshine.

This post is literally saying i'm town reading you.

And yes, I'm still town reading math, but I'm not omniscient bro. And my read list had a lot of town reads, so I gave a nod to the possibility that I'm very wrong, and gave a list of who I think is most likely to deceive me. And those people were you and Math.

There is one read on my reads list that I am sheeping mathdino on right now, and that's nsg, and it doesn't even exist because he hasn't read her yet. You should be, too.

And yeah, I was sheeping the judgement of three of my town reads there, mate. Three. Not just lol follow the dinosaur.
A) I do actually think sheeping has a strong part to play in a good town game, and I think that is especially true for me.
B) I was low key doing it as a pouty arms folded "fine. /vote" response to their disagreement.

I didn't call you an idiot. I called you snide, and I am calling you condescending - "read his iso for the lulz" - and I really don't appreciate it.

[skitter30]

the behaviour is more likely to come from scum straight up

Is this trying to say that in an empiracal sense, you've found that this sort of read is more likely to come from scum than from town? Or that you just think that this sort of read is scummy?

and who says he's not the designated nullscumread from the entire scumteam

if i were scum with him he'd be the designated bus imo

Idk if he's a designated mislynch or if he's the designated bus. Either way, the gamestate indicates that scum's cool with it, which is why I don't like it right now.

--

I do think his reasons for tunneling in this game are super weird / often not really looking for actual scum motivations if that makes sense

His scumread on you feels more ... forced I guess is a good word. Like he's overstating the significance of things that I don't find to be that AI and using that to scumread you almost.

Yeah this is basically what I was trying to say here and what's bothering me about his tunnels/pushes.

--

Also, your scumreads at this point are me, ofrhz and... TW? Bearing in mind the last 10 pages remain unread, excepting your iso’d posts.

Oh, don't forget that he's scumreading me, even though he thinks I'm tunneling him the same way I did last time

(Which is an assessment I disagree with as well)

--

someone provide a shorthand of scum!oxy for me?

It's that I think you're buddying math; that your read on ofrhz feels kinda forced (ie I don't understand the reasons you were scumreading him there, and the posts you were citing as being scummy weren't scummy to me); you voted a townread cuz math did, with like no discussion whatsoever (this is the main thing I have a problem with); you're building a team out of how many times tw interacted with people and this sort of evidence is kinda ????? and so it feels like you're using circumstantial evidence to build pre-flip teamreads.

And last game, even though I was super tunneled, I was still capable of seeing some of his posts as being unlikely to come from scum even though I wouldn't let myself believe it. I haven't really seen *any* posts like that this game.

--

I really, really don't think UD is scum, even with daychat. His posts are nuanced, but like in a naive way? I just don't see them coming from newbscum.

Like pin's suggesting people are townreading him for effort. It's not that. It's just that I don't think his thoughts are faked or fabricated.

--

@tw: I like mindmeld with most of 1501 and it describes the problem I'm having with oxy's read progressions fairly well. (Except for maybe the following paragraph; not sure if I agree with that):

I’m thinking math was playing with him for a bit, and then he realized this and is trying to back off a little. What I really want is for it to have been in the scum chat that one of his partners was like “uh, math is playing games with you bro, maybe step off the gas a bit?” and they’re frantically thinking how to make it look natural for Oxy to be slowly reversing from that.

[Oxy]

As for why I'm voting draynth, who is not one of my top scum reads - I'm the leading wagon right now.
He might be scum, he isn't a town read, and I know I'm not scum. Maybe town here should just vote their top scum read, not compromise, and get lynched. Feel free to point me to an article explaining why that's the better strategy. In lieu of that, I'm playing the way I think is best.

[skitter30]

Why draynth and not scioness?

All three leading wagons I'm either scumreading (oxy) or would be OK compromising on (draynth, with scioness somewhere between draynth/oxy), which is weird.

[Sunshine13]

Well I don’t particularly think using your vote thus is town motivated, since voting is the only way we can get scum.

Also, in that instance, you were completely alleviating the responsibility of your vote to people you don’t know are town, my non-omniscient friend. In the end, you’re the one that gets judged for it, not them. Sheeping a few days in when flips and claims happen? Bit better, still not ideal imo. D1 sheeping with no N0? You don’t care where your vote is, because you’re not town.

Draynth’s an easy lynch. Lurked for most of the day, ain’t nobody going to tell you you’re wrong.

Pedit

@skitter

That last paragraph is a pipe dream. It’s how I hope it went down in scumchat.

[Oxy]

@skitter30 Because I think SS is town this game. I know I don't have a great track record of reading her, but I think she reacted to the early pressure similarly to how she reacted to my early pressure on her last game. I think the questions she's asking come from the same mentality of the ones she gave last game, and I think her more laid back demeanor is reminiscent of the part of D2 1859 where she had no pressure on her and was shit posting some.

So I'd rather Draynth who I was kinda maybe town reading for not following through on his promises. But, tbh, mathdino screaming that question, DOES ANYONE THINK ITS SCUMMY, has made me rethink the wifom, and I'm just calling it NAI. So then he's pretty null to me, and that's a better lynch than a town read.

[Oxy]

Also, in that instance, you were completely alleviating the responsibility of your vote to people you don’t know are town, my non-omniscient friend. In the end, you’re the one that gets judged for it, not them. Sheeping a few days in when flips and claims happen? Bit better, still not ideal imo. D1 sheeping with no N0? You don’t care where your vote is, because you’re not town.

Bro, my vote is fucking mine. I knew where it was, and I knew when I would be looking at the thread. And that vote wasn't going to be a part of a lynch unless I meant it to. I didn't exactly put him in danger of a lynch, did I?

[UglyDuck]

3) Math and TW as TRs - I do not think it is likely that a) TW and Math are both skum, or that b) TW and Math are both Town. But... specifically today, which is the relevant part at any given point, I would rather lynch elsewhere than risk that coin flip.

gun to head case one of us.
a summary is fine don't wallpost

Ugly while youre here

lol this was my summary - but I get your point. Gimme a few minutes, I will elaborate slightly.

[Mathdino]

the behaviour is more likely to come from scum straight up

Is this trying to say that in an empiracal sense, you've found that this sort of read is more likely to come from scum than from town? Or that you just think that this sort of read is scummy?

and who says he's not the designated nullscumread from the entire scumteam

if i were scum with him he'd be the designated bus imo

Idk if he's a designated mislynch or if he's the designated bus. Either way, the gamestate indicates that scum's cool with it, which is why I don't like it right now.

- implying i use any tells that don't empirically work
i'm not an armchair mafia philosopher lol
scum tends to get lazy around me. that is fact.

- go look at the last votecount in which there are 2 counterwagons to draynth and tell me what about the gamestate or the votecount implies to you that scum is totally on board with this

[Sunshine13]

Also, in that instance, you were completely alleviating the responsibility of your vote to people you don’t know are town, my non-omniscient friend. In the end, you’re the one that gets judged for it, not them. Sheeping a few days in when flips and claims happen? Bit better, still not ideal imo. D1 sheeping with no N0? You don’t care where your vote is, because you’re not town.

Bro, my vote is fucking mine. I knew where it was, and I knew when I would be looking at the thread. And that vote wasn't going to be a part of a lynch unless I meant it to. I didn't exactly put him in danger of a lynch, did I?

Calm your shit, Gerald. Your vote is your voice; if you’re going to be slapping votes on people because you have no opinions, or because you’re scared of getting lynched, or because you’re pouting, I’m going to think you don’t give a shit what it’s saying because you don’t give a shit who goes down as a result, regardless of whether or not your vote is causing lynches or not.

Also, tf is a universal null read going to tell us when it flips? That nobody likes lurkers, and scum are okay with losing a potential mislynch candidate for later. Stellar.

[skitter30]

@oxy: I don't think the things you're citing here are in any way similar to 1859. Like there she reacted to early pressure by basically getting into a 1v1 with you. She had opinions and was *stubborn* about them, and here she just seems kinda surface level. Like I really can't say what most of her thoughts/stances are offhand without like ISO-ing her even though she has a fairly significant number of posts. She just .... lacks conviction would be a good way to say it. Also she has pressure on her now so idk why you're comparing her behavior here to that part of d2, when she wasn't really being pressured.

Like I'm still waiting for that mindmeld to happen, and she just feels incredibly surface-level.

@md: I wasn't sure if you were saying that you had empircal evidence or not.

As for draynth, it's that *everyone* has him in their lynch/vig pools. I don't think he's done anything scummy. He hasn't been townie, sure, but 'not being town' != 'scummy' to me. And like, the fact that oxy is voting draynth over scioness here is sending up some red flags, cuz like draynth is the much easier lynch, and before I asked him about it, he seemed to be scumreading them equally (1375).

[Mathdino]

Scum tends to nullscumread scum
And then push someone completely different

[Oxy]

@sunshine My vote being my voice is exactly why I put my vote where I did. Just because your vote is monotonous, does not mean others have to use it that way.

You sure seem to be confident that Draynth will flip town... Why is that?

[Oxy]

@skitter Agree to disagree on the early game, I guess. I was noting how she went after so many people that commented on her entrance. It felt reminiscent of how she attacked every point I brought up against her.

She didn't really have any pressure on her in the early-mid portion of this game. Remember the post where she commented on not knowing how to play without pressure on her? That's the part of this game that I'm referencing.

[Mathdino]

Oxy please don't ask leading questions it's annoying
Skitter in what universe is Draynth an easier lynch when literally no one is defending scioness
Sunshine stop trying to convince people they're scum, i literally dont end up reading those posts
Y'all do some more useful analysis than interrogation and gotchas pls

[Oxy]

As for draynth, it's that *everyone* has him in their lynch/vig pools. I don't think he's done anything scummy. He hasn't been townie, sure, but 'not being town' != 'scummy' to me. And like, the fact that oxy is voting draynth over scioness here is sending up some red flags, cuz like draynth is the much easier lynch, and before I asked him about it, he seemed to be scumreading them equally (1375).

This is not true. That was a quickly put together synopsis of my reads, but even here I have draynth listed before Scioness. I gave a much larger read list not much earlier where I explained I was reading scioness more townie than draynth.

[ruru]

skitter, how are you reading TW?

[UglyDuck]

@ math - if you were to roll skum in this setup, what 3 roles would you pick for town?

[Mathdino]

@Past-me:

Go ahead and answer lol I don't have the energy

you got it, present-me

1. Pick the worst possible roles. Jailkeeper, tracker, Vig probably. No cop because I'm a natural cop target.
2. Insist through the whole game that there's an innocent child because any scumteam that chooses otherwise is idiotic.
3. Neverbus my buddies so tracker/jailkeeper don't fuck us over.
4. Shoot all the PRs, potentially mislynch the 3rd one by arguing that there must be an innocent child out there and jailkeeper is an easy fakeclaim.
5. Once it becomes clear that scum didn't take innocent child, argue I'm conftown because I make mechanically correct decisions.

1 bad vigshot and 2 mislynches puts us in 7p or 8p lylo. Win this.

But then I rolled town whoops

I don't think ugly is following the game very closely