Newbie 955 - Game over

[Hoopla]

MrSandman (2) Hoopla, RayFrost
AdumbroDeus (2) Adaham, LobsterCatapult
kingcod (3) MrSandman, AdumbroDeus, redtail896
(No vote) Me=Weird, kingcod
9 alive; 5 votes lynch.

Alright, I know I'm about to do the same thing I criticized Hoopla for, but discussion has been lagging the past few days (although, in my defense, discussion was happening at a brisker pace back then). Do we think we have the ability to come to some kind of consensus? Do we need more discussion? As I write this, we have just barely over 9 days left before we go to night.

I forgive you and gracefully accept the withdrawal your of suspicion of me. Love you.

[Me=Weird]

Noooo!!!!!!!!!! I was almost finished with a case on kingcod, and then I hit preview and lost it!!

[kingcod]

@Me=Weird -Allow me to resume "Pure as the driven snow"

Bad luck tho, I have made similar mistakes.

[Adaham]

Very sorry for the absence, people, been very busy in real life. I´ll be in Italy for the weekend and will follow up on my mobile, but will return monday evening (should be before the deadline in any case). I´ll try to post as much as possible before and after my leave.

For now, not really a great deal of new things has happened. kingcod is evolving as the main suspect for day 1, with AdumbroDeus and Hoopla looking in. I´ll give a summary of my thoughts on everybody in a short LoS.

1. kingcod - Seems to be on almost everybodies mind as one of the suspects. I have poked into him earlier and my suspicions haven´t been availed by his reactions. Also other people have made some cases that I won´t retell now, but that are interesting. To sum it up, with what little we have to go on on day 1, my gut still doesn´t like the way he seems to be trying to stay middle-of-the-road, always trying to feel for where the wind´s coming from, rather than hunting for wolves. The way he poses questions and posts in general shows that he knows quite well how the game is played, so I must doubt his honesty rather than his ability.

As he´s vote leader, his recent contributions have been mostly defensive. He mentioned 4 people that he´s kind of suspicious of, but nothing with meat on it. It´s interesting that he´s not having AdumbroDeus on his list, which could either point at packdom, or at an attempt to appear honest by not voting to safe your own neck. Or it could be an honest opinion. While not very insightful and elaborate, his list of suspects shows not the most direct signs of trying to safe himself by joining the next best bandwagon, so he gains a pluspoint for that.

2. AdumbroDeus - Who am I to talk after my long absence, but the way AdumbroDeus was leaning back to read (as he admitted himself) looks very much like active lurking. On one hand he thinks everything is going to slow, on the other hand he doesn´t do much to help moving the game forward faster. That´s hypocrisy in my book. He´s the grumpy guy sitting in the corner and every time somebody touches him the wrong way, he exerts a quite aggressive aura. His categorizations of players don´t really help and his repeated question for the top three is also not getting us anywhere, as it´s pretty obviously a race between AD and kingcod at the moment.

A bit like Hoopla he seems to be wanting the day to come to a conclusion, rather than pushing discussion once more. And on top of that, he´s currently voting for kingcod, who is most popular besides AD himself. He´s been on the kingcod thing from not the very beginning, but got there a little bit after my dispute with him earlier on. While it is a theory only, one could argue that he jumped on the train right around the time when it became clear that kingcod was going to stay amidst the main suspects on day 1 (which was pretty obvious at that time).

I´m also getting the feeling that he´s trying to lure me into switching my vote on to kingcod (considering he posts barely more than three lines of text, the fact he specifically directed this question to me is quite remarkable and meaningful). So to answer his question, no, I´m not quite convinced yet kingcod is the better lynch candidate than you (even though he´s close). You just are doing too well to keep yourself right up there. Your scumhunting seems reduced to some basic categorizations of people and voting to stay alive.

3. RayFrost - Posts only to avoid replacement, or so it seems to me. That´s either weak play or selfish play. In any case, I don´t like it. I honestly don´t get the whole case on Sandman, as he´s one of the players that seems more towny than most others in my view. As Ray admits, he´s basically parking his vote on Sandman as he´s not close to a lynch. More importantly, that means that he avoids taking a clear stance in the whole discussion surrounding kingcod and AD (or others). Not much to go on because he posts very little (even when he posts), but I don´t like his stance.

4. Hoopla - Becoming a bit jovial by all that unwanted attention for her helpdesk/moderation bits. I´m not going to rechew everything said upon her, but her main concern of late seems still rather to explain herself than to hunt scum. Her case on Sandman is a deadend and never really was much of a case anyway(I don´t see anything in those things she used against Sandman). Her recent discussions with redtail also leave her in a worse light (imho) than before.

I agree with redtail that I cannot find anything greatly suspicious in Sandman and think that she tried out an early bandwagon. While the bandwagon failed, she hasn´t done almost anything after that to rekindle discussion on him or on any other suspect, only trying to defend herself or trying to wrap up votes globally. That way, her vote seems parked in a very similar way to Rays vote. But if I read about an enormous amount of games studied, then I expect a bit more of scumhunting on day 1. This seems like she jump-started the race, and once everybody accelerated she pulled the handbreak and started watching the show from behind. Scummy behaviour in my book.

5. Redtail - As I said earlier, I didn´t think Sailor was necessarily scummy because of his entrance, but Redtail has been really showing a lot of great input. While there´s always the chance of a picture-perfect-vocal-wolf, I´m currently inclined to trust him more than anybody else. Honesty commands to admit that this is probably due to the fact that I like the way he notices things and draws conclusion, for I see a similarity between us in this respect and I tend to agree with him on many things. If he´s evil, I´ll have a hard time figuring him out, but for now he seems cleaner than almost anybody in my view.

6. LobsterCatapult - Not much to add what has been said earlier about him. Not high on my list. Posts a lot when he posts, doesn´t seem afraid of speaking his mind, even though his thoughts are sometimes a bit jumpy. Another one of the people I´m currently thinking of as innocents.

7. Mr Sandman - My third-most likely innocent. I like the way he goes about his scumhunting, he´s open and was far from showing scummy behaviour when being pressured by the votes of Hoopla and Ray. Not on my scumdar at the moment.

8. Me=Weird - You see, Valkyrie was starting to ring untrue with his/her constant complaining about the connection and postponing of a real contribution. Now Me=Weird is on probation, but I real hope we can still something substantial before this day ends. I know posts can get lost, but the only thing we can judge you by for now is one line suggesting you´re going to join the most popular bandwagon right now (even if you have a long post dedicated to it, I´m still arrogant enough to assume that most of your accusations would have been recycled material ). No judgement made yet, but the behaviour of this role throughout is still unsatisfying. Hope Me=Weird gets to playing the game a.s.a.p.

Obviously my top 2+2+1 are:

AD
kingcod

Hoopla
Rayfrost

Me=Weird

---

It would be great if we could get some more discussion on the latter three before the end of the day. Especially Rayfrost seems a bit distressing to me right now.

No vote change as of yet.

[redtail896]

I forgive you and gracefully accept the withdrawal your of suspicion of me. Love you.

Gee, thanks. I'm still suspicious of you though. Sorry.

Noooo!!!!!!!!!! I was almost finished with a case on kingcod, and then I hit preview and lost it!!

Were you going to vote for kingcod? If so, can you just give us a brief summary?

@kingcod: Do you plan to vote soon? We're 5.5 days away from deadline; who should we lynch?

And hey Adaham, good to see that somebody else has jumped back in, and glad to see that our suspicions broadly align. Not to be petty though; I'm still curious about your answer to my question:

@Adaham In regards to your comment that "Meager reason for a vote = scumtell"... How much do you think this applies on Day 1? Which votes currently out there (and maybe historically) do you think qualify under this criterion?

[Hoopla]

I forgive you and gracefully accept the withdrawal your of suspicion of me. Love you.

Gee, thanks. I'm still suspicious of you though. Sorry.

Tsk tsk. One day you will learn redtail that suspecting Hoopla is never a winning play.

Can someone voting kingcod explain the kingcod case in three lines or less please?

[kingcod]

@kingcod: Do you plan to vote soon? We're 5.5 days away from deadline; who should we lynch?

I think we should put some pressure on Hoopla.

This has been a difficult choice to make. As I suggested earlier this is a tough crowd to read (so well done everyone) and the main lynch contenders are not stacking up for me right now. As Adaham says 'we have little to go on on day 1".

Just before I talk about Hoopla I'll address Adaham's analysis - (yup sorry I will have to post a defence again since without it I look like a likely day one lynch, which would be a shame because I've still got lots of scumhunting to do!). My balanced approach has been an attempt to make sure we do a thorough scum hunt, respond to what the accused have to say, and keep our options open.

So now I will make a case for a day one lynch.

There are alternative play styles to the balanced style. Of course. One of these is to vote page 1, chip in with pearls of wisdom about how to play the game, the odd joke, what look like rallying calls for votes and thats about it. I'm talking about you Hoopla, and to a lesser extent RayFrost. For Ray this is a style I've seen before in another game (he was town and got lynched). Ray has also had more voting activity but is still suspicous. For Hoopla I don't see this pattern.

All Day 1 really is, is providing enough information to help us hit scum tomorrow

Hoopla plays down the significance of day one - lynch a townie? no biggie - plenty more where they came from.

This is a nice scum tactic - carry on with the 'less is more' approach and before we know it town is outnumbered or at best a 50/50 chance of losing by a misplaced vote. Remember - scum knows who we are. We don't know who are scum.

It isn't scummy to want a quicker, sharper game

.. or it is. Newbie games are paced slower to allow town to have a better chance to get it right.

Conciseness is a pro-town quality

Just as easily it can be a scum tactic. If Hoopla really was so knowledgeable about the game she should remind us that brevity is also a way for scum to hide.

I've done a lot of data-mining in the Mini Normal forum. I've catalogued 300+ games

"Trust me I'm an expert" This adds to the veneer of respectablility built up from earlier posts.

Hoopla is a good candidate for a day one lynch because:

1. She spends a lot of time grooming an image of trusted town
2. She has kept a vote on Sandman made on page one that most players have agreed is bunkum.
3. She wants to limit scum hunting through proper discourse in a newbie game with the fallacious opinion that less is more.

vote Hoopla

[RayFrost]

yeaaaahhh, responding to a prod, I'll post later today, sorry for the lack of any posting lately, been feeling a lack of energycombined with a distracting quantity of pain which doesn't do well for focusing on anything

[Me=Weird]

To hoopla: A less than 3 lines case on kingcod: Votes the most popular suspect when the wagon's hot, then when it loses momentum, unvotes when the wagon loses momentum, with an excuse of "I agree, we shouldn't get him when there are better lynch targets", or something along those lines. Satisfied?

[RayFrost]

All Day 1 really is, is providing enough information to help us hit scum tomorrow

Hoopla plays down the significance of day one - lynch a townie? no biggie - plenty more where they came from.

This is a nice scum tactic - carry on with the 'less is more' approach and before we know it town is outnumbered or at best a 50/50 chance of losing by a misplaced vote. Remember - scum knows who we are. We don't know who are scum.

Difference of opinion, not a scumtell. Actually, you don't even argue with hoopla's point. Her point was that

day one is for providing information

while your counter argument was

sacrificing townies is bad

. Both are correct, neither contradict.

It isn't scummy to want a quicker, sharper game

.. or it is. Newbie games are paced slower to allow town to have a better chance to get it right.

Actually... 3 week deadlines are considered more of a 'standard' from what I've seen. Enough time to give people good convos while short enough to prevent huge replace outs (heh, not working for the latter...). In a game with a lot of content,

there is typically a lynch long before deadline

. This doesn't mean it is necessarily good, but it does show that waiting for deadline is unnecessary sometimes. It's not scummy to want a game in which content is produced and a decision is made, which is what you'd be arguing here. You don't actually make a case as to why what hoopla said is scummy, by the way. You just say 'this could be scummy, omfg!' (to put it in simple terms)

Conciseness is a pro-town quality

Just as easily it can be a scum tactic. If Hoopla really was so knowledgeable about the game she should remind us that brevity is also a way for scum to hide.

Ummm... wrong. There is a difference between being concise and not saying anything. A concise person will have a high quantity of content in their posts even if they are short. A 'scum tactic' like what you are saying is where scum

do not say very much

, in which case there is low content.

I've done a lot of data-mining in the Mini Normal forum. I've catalogued 300+ games

"Trust me I'm an expert" This adds to the veneer of respectablility built up from earlier posts.

Hoopla is a good candidate for a day one lynch because:

1. She spends a lot of time grooming an image of trusted town
2. She has kept a vote on Sandman made on page one that most players have agreed is bunkum.
3. She wants to limit scum hunting through proper discourse in a newbie game with the fallacious opinion that less is more.

vote Hoopla

eeehhh, weak point about the 'veneer of respectability, could just as easily be saying she's got data without any reference to whether we should trust it.

point 1. you haven't actually shown how this is true

2. 'most' does not mean hoopla feels the same. Appeal to majority is noted.

3. It's not fallacious. Concision is pro-town, even if lack of content is scummy. The two are not the same.

vote has no real basis, this is merely ridin' coattails.

Now, having done that, I'll read through the thread and post all of my thoughts.

I just needed to get this out of the way first.

[RayFrost]

bah, got interrupted in the middle of reading by a looooong disconnection... >.< gotta start over.

[AdumbroDeus]

Before anybody says anything else about me,

I'm replacing out.

My access has been frustratingly limited cause I left my laptop cord at a friend's house and still haven't been able to get it back, thought I could keep up cause this game's so slow, but my access is so limited it doesn't matter.



Obviously I should have access again by the time this game is over so I'll debate philosophical merits in the post-game. Peace all and go town.

[Hoopla]

To hoopla: A less than 3 lines case on kingcod: Votes the most popular suspect when the wagon's hot, then when it loses momentum, unvotes when the wagon loses momentum, with an excuse of "I agree, we shouldn't get him when there are better lynch targets", or something along those lines. Satisfied?

Not really, that sounds like an awfully underwhelming premise. Most of us have to make compromises to make the Day 1 lynch, and we're not going anywhere. We've just had a player replace out which slows the game down even more.

I hope this is enough proof to showcase why 'we need more information!' tactics from towns usually fail, because it is inherently reliant on the same level of interest in the game, and this generally will wane if nothing new happens.

As soon as we get a new replacement, we're lynching Sandman or at a stretch kingcod, so we can test this bandwagon.

[redtail896]

As soon as we get a new replacement, we're lynching Sandman or at a stretch kingcod, so we can test this bandwagon.

I'm still unclear on why you're keeping the MrSandman wagon going. Do you think your original case still stands? Do you think 5 people will vote for MrSandman.

As for the kingcod case: he shifts his votes with the current trend. He easily backpedals when he comes under fire. He usually simply agrees with other logic and doesn't add his own. I understand saying that it rests on an underwhelming premise, and while I agree it's no smoking gun, I don't know what you expect from a Day 1 discussion. I do think that it's better than rolling a d9 though.

[Me=Weird]

Forgot to vote. Hope everyone is okay with my putting him at L-1.

Vote: kingcod

[Korejora]

Exemption replaces AdumbroDeus.

[Exemption]

Hey guys read half of the topic at the moment. Will finish soon.

Don't drop the hammer yet whatever you guys do.

[Exemption]

Right so my opinions.

Short posts are by far better (as long as they don't lose information)

@hoopla: I liked your first few posts. Nice spot on sandman. However you have stopped contributing as much now. I think this is probably because you are playing in a different game in which more is happening. I might be wrong though. A lynch would help this game.

However a Hoopla lynch would give us loads of information to work with. However a dead town Hoopla would be a bad thing.

@Kingcod: I'm not really sure on him. Gut read is newb town. He has some of the strangest opinions, his like post for instance. Conciseness is definitely not a scum tactic for instance. However I would be happy to lynch him for the fact that he doesn't help town much. Would not be my ideal choice though.

Lol I see Me= is up to his usual lack of time to post ;p

Hmmm my opinion varied on sandman as I real through it though, sometimes he towny other times he his scummy. Its more scummy at the start though than at the end.

yer well thats that for a start. feel free to ask me any questions

oh n I would probably have voted for AD if he was still here. I'll try to make up for his behaviour.

[kingcod]

hum. I'm not getting a good feeling now Exemption

(hey and welcome Exemption!)

AdumbroDeus always had a tinge of scum and Exemption's first post hasn't helped that, for the following reasons:

1. "a Hoopla lynch would give us loads of information to work with. However a dead town Hoopla would be a bad thing." How so? Do we hang on Hoopla's word? I don't doubt her skill, but I do doubt her town credentials. Are you giving her cover to go to work as scum?

2."oh n I would probably have voted for AD if he was still here. I'll try to make up for his behaviour" Why say this? Kind of a double bluff perhaps?

3. .... and lynch Kingcod because he doesn't help town much. Because I'm not voting with the herd? Because my opinions don't match yours? Because they are strange? ..... but not because I am scum?

@Hoopla - any chance of a response to any or my points for voting on you? Or is it not worth the effort as I am a lone voice?

Anyhow, lynch me if you think it will progress town's case, but please think carefully next time. There are very few tells this early in a game, but at this point I predict that you will find scum lurking amongst those voting on me or perhaps on Sandman. Also please note you are unlikely to find all scum voting in the same place.

Ffor reference feel free to check my play in other games - this isn't the first time I will have taken a bullet to help town win.

[Korejora]

There is around a day left until deadline.

[redtail896]

First of all, thanks for replacing in Exemption. Now, on to the analysis.

@hoopla: I liked your first few posts. Nice spot on sandman. However you have stopped contributing as much now. I think this is probably because you are playing in a different game in which more is happening. I might be wrong though. A lynch would help this game.

However a Hoopla lynch would give us loads of information to work with. However a dead town Hoopla would be a bad thing.

Something about this gives me a bad feeling. It seems a little too...wishy-washy? Like you're trying to play both sides. I understand being unsure, but you left me unclear whether you actually were suspicious of Hoopla. Also, since we're 1 day away from deadline, who is your ideal candidate here?

@Hoopla - any chance of a response to any or my points for voting on you? Or is it not worth the effort as I am a lone voice?

You're not a lone voice. I'm very suspicious of Hoopla, as are Adaham and (maybe kinda sort I don't know) Exemption. But I, at least, am more suspicious of you, and am generally dissatisfied with your responses. That doesn't mean I can't agree with you; in fact, I agree that Exemption's first post (well, first real post) is disconcerting. But I'm still suspicious of you and my vote stands.

MrSandman? We haven't seen you in about a week. Thoughts?

Rayfrost: it's been 4 days. What are the results of your reread?

[Me=Weird]

MrSandman? We haven't seen you in about a week. Thoughts?

Rayfrost: it's been 4 days. What are the results of your reread?

QFT. More thoughts later.

[redtail896]

MrSandman? We haven't seen you in about a week. Thoughts?

Rayfrost: it's been 4 days. What are the results of your reread?

QFT. More thoughts later.

Not to be rude, but deadline is midday tomorrow. Can we have your more thoughts now?

[LobsterCatapult]

i dont think im going to be around midday tomorrow since ill be at work. im sorry ill miss deadline if we dont lynch before this, but it cant be helped.

i really thought AD was scum, and i still think you could be too exemption. i dont like kingcod, yet i didnt like AD more, and i dont know about sandman. sandman, like exception said, started out looking scummier than he is now, i think this is because he got rhythm in the game not for being scum. excemption, do you think sandman is scum?

i...actually find myself agreeing with some of kingcods opinions, exception hasnt done much to persuade me he is town, or not scummy, and i dont get why kingcods opinions are just wierd.. exception are you going to give us a bit of detail?

i dont get why lynching hoopla would give us info, but a dead hoopla would be a bad thing? i mean. why bother lynching someone if itd be bad for town? info we can get through other means...like pressure or claiming or w/e not just by lynching @__@. this mentality in itself is....backward. id only vote/push for a lynch on hoopla or any other player, if i thought it was best for town. period.

exemption, do you think that hoopla is town?

i agree with redtail, he and adaham have suspecions, but they would lynch hoopla to help town, not for your reasons.

me=weird. i wish you'd post more. same goes for ray, id like your opinions. i was going to wait to post again till i saw something from me=weird.

exemption, like your predecessor, dont come across as town. im keeping my vote on you. kingcod may be at L-1, and it may help town to move the game along, however, i feel my vote is best placed here.

[Exemption]

Ok yer sorry for the wishy washyness. Probably because I'm not really sure who is scum.

So my position on Hoopla.

Read= Null (well Both)

Started of as being very towny with some good scum hunting on Sandman. However now she seems to be disinterested or lurking, which I can see as anti town.

If she was town she would be bad being dead because she is the IC and also of the way she was scum hunting earlier. We need players like that.

However if she was lynched there is loads we could find out. Like sandman is pretty much guaranteed town if she is scum.

I said that I would vote for myself because as I was reading the topic (not knowing who I was gonna replace) he seemed like the most scummy player. Just giving my honest opinion no more.

vote hoopla

There is not much time to creat a band wagon on hoopla but if enough people are willing to vote her then I am in.

We need a lynch though so if there is not enough people on the bandwagon by 9pm GMT I will join the kingcod wagon.