Open 662: Fire and Ice (Game Over)

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: Realeo

[Aristophanes]

FINALLY!!!

and I don't mean the game starting up, I mean a scum flip.

[Akarin]

That's it?

You'll see me shine as the days go on and I can VCA properly (and by "shine" I mean "contribute more")

Too hard to VCA off your buddy's flip?

[Aristophanes]

That's it?

You'll see me shine as the days go on and I can VCA properly (and by "shine" I mean "contribute more")

Too hard to VCA off your buddy's flip?

...no, I was at work lol

I'm on it now

[Aristophanes]

Judging by

• BK is so consisten scumreading havingfitz
  
• Aristophanes surprisingly also scumread havingfitz (How coincedental!)
  
• BK and Aristophanes never mentioned each other

I think Aristophanes is Ice Mafia

That's nowhere near enough to convince people if you actually believe I'm Ice.
Just fyi

[Aristophanes]

It's not the prettiest one I've ever done, but here is a coloured map of the VCs.
Sorry about the extra dud "[/color]" tags. I could get rid of them, but that's so much extra, unnecessary work!

Spoiler: D1 and Flips

Official Vote Count 1.1

Realeo (5)

:

Transcend

,

Culted

, Not_Mafia,

BK201

, havingfitz

Not_Mafia (1)

: Realeo

Akarin (1)

:

Gamma Emerald

SnarkySnowman

(1)

: Kmd4390

Not Voting (5)

- Joshz-slot,

nn30

, Akarin,

SnarkySnowman

, Aristophanes[/color]

Pagetop!

Official Vote Count 1.2

Gamma Emerald

(3)

:

Transcend

, havingfitz, Not_Mafia

Realeo (2)

:

Culted

,

BK201

BK201

(1)

: Joshz-slot

havingfitz (1)

:

Gamma Emerald

Not_Mafia (1)

: Realeo

SnarkySnowman

(1)

: Kmd4390

Not Voting (4)

-

nn30

, Akarin,

SnarkySnowman

, Aristophanes[/color]

Official Vote Count 1.4

nn30

(2)

:

Culted

,

Transcend

Gamma Emerald

(2)

: Not_Mafia, Akarin

Transcend

(2)

:

Gamma Emerald

,

SnarkySnowman

Akarin (1)

: Joshz-slot

Realeo (1)

:

BK201

SnarkySnowman

(1)

: Kmd4390

Not Voting (4)

-

nn30

, Aristophanes, Realeo, havingfitz[/color]

Also searching for a replacement for Aristophanes as they have failed to respond to their prod

[/color]

Kmd4390 replaces Kmd4390

[/color]

Aristophanes replaces Aristophanes

[/color]

Official Vote Count 1.5

nn30

(4)

:

Culted

,

Transcend

, Joshz-slot,

BK201

Transcend

(2)

:

Gamma Emerald

,

SnarkySnowman

Gamma Emerald

(2)

: Not_Mafia, Akarin

Culted

(1)

:

nn30

Realeo (1)

: Kmd4390

Not Voting (3)

- Realeo, havingfitz, Aristophanes[/color]

Official Vote Count 1.6

nn30

(4)

:

Culted

,

Transcend

, Joshz-slot,

BK201

Transcend

(3)

:

Gamma Emerald

,

SnarkySnowman

,

nn30

Joshz-slot (1)

: Akarin

Gamma Emerald

(1)

: Not_Mafia

Realeo (1)

: Kmd4390

Not Voting (3)

- Realeo, havingfitz, Aristophanes[/color]

Official Vote Count 1.7

nn30

(4)

:

Culted

, Joshz-slot,

BK201

, Not_Mafia

Gamma Emerald

(2)

:

Transcend

,

nn30

Transcend

(2)

:

Gamma Emerald

,

SnarkySnowman

Joshz-slot (1)

: Akarin

Realeo (1)

: Kmd4390

Not Voting (3)

- Realeo, havingfitz, Aristophanes[/color]

Official Vote Count 1.8

nn30

(4)

:

Culted

,

BK201

, Not_Mafia, Kmd4390

Akarin (2)

: Joshz-slot, havingfitz

Gamma Emerald

(2)

:

Transcend

,

nn30

Transcend

(2)

:

Gamma Emerald

,

SnarkySnowman

Joshz-slot (1)

: Akarin

Not Voting (2)

- Realeo, Aristophanes[/color]

Official Vote Count 1.9

nn30

(5)

:

Culted

, Not_Mafia, Kmd4390,

SnarkySnowman

,

Gamma Emerald

Gamma Emerald

(4)

:

Transcend

, Akarin,

nn30

, havingfitz

Akarin (2)

: Joshz-slot,

BK201

Transcend

(1)

: Realeo

Not Voting (1)

- Aristophanes[/color]

Official Vote Count 1.10

nn30

(5)

:

Culted

, Not_Mafia, Kmd4390,

SnarkySnowman

,

Gamma Emerald

Gamma Emerald

(4)

:

Transcend

, Akarin,

nn30

, havingfitz

Akarin (2)

: Joshz-slot,

BK201

Not Voting (2)

- Aristophanes, Realeo[/color]

Official Vote Count 1.11

[/color]

nn30

(7)

:

Culted

, Not_Mafia, Kmd4390,

SnarkySnowman

,

Gamma Emerald

,

BK201

,

Transcend

[/color]

BK201

(2)

: havingfitz,

nn30

Gamma Emerald

(1)

: Akarin

Akarin (1)

: Joshz-slot

Not Voting (2)

- Aristophanes, Realeo[/color]

The angry townsfolk took

nn30

from his house and dragged him to the town square, where, in the absence of a gallows, they strung him up from a particularly tall lamppost. Shame we can't all get on, isn't it?

nn30

, a [/color]

Vanilla Townie

, has been lynched

Night 1 begins now. You have (expired on 2016-12-21 17:04:20) to submit your acthavingfitzns[/color]

The next morning, the sun rose on the town and the townsfolk begun going about their business. Apparently, the mafia had not struck in the night.

There was

no nightkill

[/color]

Spoiler: D2 and Flips

Official Vote Count 2.1

BK201

(2)

- havingfitz, Joshz-slot

Akarin (2)

-

BK201

,

Transcend

Not Voting (8)

-

Gamma Emerald

, Kmd4390, Akarin,

SnarkySnowman

, Not_Mafia, Realeo,

Culted

, Aristophanes[/color]

Official Vote Count 2.2

SnarkySnowman

(2)

- Kmd4390, Joshz-slot

Kmd4390 (1)

-

Transcend

BK201

(1)

- havingfitz

Akarin (1)

-

BK201

Not Voting (7)

-

Gamma Emerald

, Akarin,

SnarkySnowman

, Not_Mafia,

Culted

, Aristophanes, Realeo[/color]

Don't steal my pagetops

Official Vote Count 2.3

BK201

(2)

- havingfitz,

Culted

SnarkySnowman

(2)

- Kmd4390, Joshz-slot

Gamma Emerald

(1)

- Realeo

Kmd4390 (1)

-

Transcend

Akarin (1)

-

BK201

Not Voting (5)

-

Gamma Emerald

, Akarin,

SnarkySnowman

, Not_Mafia, Aristophanes[/color]

havingfitz replaces havingfitz

Official Vote Count 2.4

BK201

(3)

-

Culted

, Aristophanes, Akarin

SnarkySnowman

(2)

- Kmd4390, Joshz-slot

Gamma Emerald

(1)

- Realeo

Kmd4390 (1)

-

Transcend

Akarin (1)

-

BK201

Not Voting (4)

-

Gamma Emerald

,

SnarkySnowman

, Not_Mafia, havingfitz[/color]

Searching for a replacement for Akarin

Official Vote Count 2.5

BK201

(4)

- havingfitz,

Culted

, Aristophanes, Akarin

Akarin (2)

-

BK201

,

Transcend

SnarkySnowman

(2)

- Kmd4390, Joshz-slot

Aristophanes (1)

- Realeo

Not Voting (3)

-

Gamma Emerald

,

SnarkySnowman

, Not_Mafia[/color]

Akarin replaces Akarin

[/color]

Official Vote Count 2.6

SnarkySnowman

(3)

- Kmd4390, Akarin, Joshz-slot

BK201

(3)

- havingfitz,

Culted

, Aristophanes

Akarin (1)

-

BK201

Aristophanes (1)

- Realeo

Not Voting (4)

-

Gamma Emerald

,

SnarkySnowman

, Not_Mafia,

Transcend

[/color]

Official Vote Count 2.7

SnarkySnowman

(5)

- Kmd4390, Akarin, Joshz-slot, Aristophanes, havingfitz

BK201

(1)

-

Culted

Transcend

(1)

-

Gamma Emerald

Gamma Emerald

(1)

-

Transcend

havingfitz (1)

-

BK201

Not Voting (2)

-

SnarkySnowman

, Not_Mafia, Realeo[/color]

Official Vote Count 2.8

[/color]

SnarkySnowman

(7)

- Kmd4390, Akarin, Joshz-slot, Aristophanes, havingfitz, Realeo, Not_Mafia[/color]

BK201

(1)

-

Culted

Transcend

(1)

-

Gamma Emerald

Gamma Emerald

(1)

-

Transcend

havingfitz (1)

-

BK201

Not Voting (1)

-

SnarkySnowman

[/color]

The townsfolk gathered outside the town hall with pitchforks and torches and varhavingfitzus other weapons.

SnarkySnowman

, surrounded by his own neighbours, was hit over the head with a baseball bat.

SnarkySnowman

, a [/color]

Vanilla Townie

, has been lynched

Night 2 begins now. You have (expired on 2017-01-02 09:55:02) to submit your acthavingfitzns[/color]

The sky was overcast next morning as the townsfolk awoke and began going about their business. But the peace was shattered by cries of shock as one townie came to

Culted

's house, which had been burnt to the ground in the night with it's owner trapped inside.

Culted

, a [/color]

Town Doctor

, has been burnt[/color]

Spoiler: D3 and Flips

Official Vote Count 3.1

Akarin (2)

- Kmd4390, Joshz-slot

Gamma Emerald

(2)

-

Transcend

, Not_Mafia

Transcend

(1)

- Akarin

BK201

(1)

- havingfitz

havingfitz (1)

-

BK201

Not Voting (3)

-

Gamma Emerald

, Realeo, Aristophanes[/color]

What up

Official Vote Count 3.2

Akarin (3)

- Joshz-slot,

BK201

, havingfitz

Transcend

(3)

- Realeo, Aristophanes,

Gamma Emerald

Realeo (2)

- Akarin,

Transcend

Gamma Emerald

(1)

- Not_Mafia

Aristophanes (1)

- Kmd4390

Not Voting (0)

[/color]

Official Vote Count 3.3

Transcend

(3)

- Realeo, Aristophanes,

Gamma Emerald

Akarin (2)

-

BK201

, havingfitz

Not_Mafia (1)

- Joshz-slot

havingfitz (1)

-

Transcend

Realeo (1)

- Akarin

Gamma Emerald

(1)

- Not_Mafia

Aristophanes (1)

- Kmd4390

Not Voting (0)

[/color]

Official Vote Count 3.4

Transcend

(4)

- Realeo, Aristophanes,

Gamma Emerald

,

BK201

Aristophanes (2)

- Kmd4390,

Transcend

BK201

(1)

- Joshz-slot

Akarin (1)

- havingfitz

Realeo (1)

- Akarin

Gamma Emerald

(1)

- Not_Mafia

Not Voting (0)

[/color]

Official Vote Count 3.5

[/color]

Transcend

(6)

- Realeo, Aristophanes,

Gamma Emerald

,

BK201

, havingfitz,

Transcend

Aristophanes (1)

- Kmd4390

Kmd4390 (1)

- Joshz-slot

Realeo (1)

- Akarin

Gamma Emerald

(1)

- Not_Mafia

Not Voting (0)

[color]

On the third evening, the bloodthirsty and fearful townspeople dragged

Transcend

from his home to the cemetery on the edge of town, where they threw him into a grave next to

SnarkySnowman

and piled the earth on top.

Transcend

, a [/color]

Vanilla Townie

, has been lynched

Night will begin once a replacement for Akarin has been found

Edit: Am now also searching for a replacement for Joshz-slot[/color]

Akarin replaces Akarin. Still searching for a replacement for the other slot.

[/color]

The sky was an evil shade the next morning, ominous and foreboding. And it was not long before someone came across the night's first casualty:

Gamma Emerald

had been found, locked into an ice cream freezer outside the cafe and left to freeze. And just when the townies had gotten over that shock, a scream was heard: it appeared

BK201

had been pushed into a large bonfire, burnt beyond recognithavingfitzn.

Gamma Emerald

, a [/color]

Vanilla Townie

, has been frozen

BK201

, an [/color]

Ice Mafia Goon

, has been burnt[/color]

[Not_Mafia]

You forgot to put yourself in blue and Realeo in red

[Kmd4390]

What is the point of that without the analysis?

[Aristophanes]

What is the point of that without the analysis?

Analysis to come!
But I put it here so others can analyse it as well. Duh! XD

[Kmd4390]

ok

[Realeo]

I like the idea of going for ice mafia for two reasons:
A) Eliminate one NK
B) It's easier with more info (BK's flip)

How confident are you with lylo? I am ready for 3-2 lylo if we want to hunt Ice Mafia.

Can you go into more detail why you don't think gamma was the failed NK? Is it because scum had to be shooting for each other? If so, who was still scumreading gamma and BK?

The idea of Gamma being NK target was coined by me

accidentally

It's not about the isistnece part. It's about they logic.

They logic is that "his insistence that Rory is town makes me think he might be scum who tried killing Rory"

My question was, why would scum!Josh does that if the analysis is True. It's like Josh is telling the another scum party to kill him because "I know who you kill."

1. Why I'm thinking the nk target is Gamma

2. WHY IS THERE NO WAGON ON GAMMA?

No. I don't sr Gamma. But Gammas was hot pursuit D1 and none D2? Something is going on...

But pushed by BK

It's not about the isistnece part. It's about they logic.

They logic is that "his insistence that Rory is town makes me think he might be scum who tried killing Rory"

My question was, why would scum!Josh does that if the analysis is True. It's like Josh is telling the another scum party to kill him because "I know who you kill."

1. Why I'm thinking the nk target is Gamma

2. WHY IS THERE NO WAGON ON GAMMA?

No. I don't sr Gamma. But Gammas was hot pursuit D1 and none D2? Something is going on...

Realeo,you're right about the difference between D1 and D2. You may have just cracked open the game. This would mean Gamma is town, and scum would know it too, so as scum you might drop Gamma know he's town and try to get the other faction lynched. Good work.

[1] Considering BK is scum, why would BK pushed at the actual NK target? BK demonstrated a straight game. I don't reckon WIFOM in play. I think he pushed Gamma because that would derail us from the actual NK target.

[2] If Bk pushed Gamma, BK losts the opportunity to push a lynch at him. THis means, BK quite townread Gamma. Why would scum kill a townread?

I know that my argument is a little bit assumptive, but with BK playing a

straightforward

game (ie.No WIFOM in view yet), I feel confindent with my assumption.

[Realeo]

Official Vote Count 2.8[/color]

SnarkySnowman (7)

- Kmd4390, Akarin, Joshz-slot, Aristophanes, havingfitz, Realeo, Not_Mafia

All 7 players on SnarkySnowman are alive...priceless.

Who would know SnarkySnowman will be the diabolical difference of alive and dead

[Kmd4390]

Me personally, I'm not confident at all. My reads have been the worst they've been in a long time. This game has been horrible. But I also don't trust scum to shoot each other and eliminating a team/kill is huge. And like I said, more info makes it easier and that's a decent crutch to use to be more sure of a scum lynch if we go for ice.

I can see scum BK giving the real failed NK because scum should want to lynch the other scum team. Whoever they shot, they knew to be town. If they can piggyback someone else's logic to "confirm" that player to be town in thread, they won't be lynching confirmed town from their PoV. I mean, it's not by any means a guarantee that gamma was the NK and I'm still in the mindset that we won't know who it was until postgame. But there is absolutely logic to the theory that it was gamma still. The way he tunneled havingfitz has me thinking it probably wasn't havingfitz, but other than that his flip doesn't give a whole lot of solid answers on that.

Your point 2 actually makes a lot of sense though. He should have been shooting for fire scum so that makes a lot of sense. And following that logic, along with the idea that he probably wouldn't help lynch confirmed town (Transcend), the target was probably Snark (doubt it) or a living player. So if we can nail down who it was, it's still huge. But I don't have a clue still.

[Realeo]

Judging by

• BK is so consisten scumreading havingfitz
  
• Aristophanes surprisingly also scumread havingfitz (How coincedental!)
  
• BK and Aristophanes never mentioned each other

I think Aristophanes is Ice Mafia

That's nowhere near enough to convince people if you actually believe I'm Ice.
Just fyi

An elaborated explanation why havingfitz is scum would really help me.

[havingfitz]

Also what's the logic here? He clearly knows transcend will follow through on his threat to self-hammer as town, and knows this is terrible for town. Almost as if he doesn't care about town's winning chances.

The quotes you list in support of this statement prove in no way that I "clearly know Transcend will follow through" on his self vote threat. Next game I'm in with him...sure. But not this time. So all you have done is produce a lot of post with no effect.

I haven't liked any of your predecessors so you'll do fine.

VOTE: Akarin

[havingfitz]

Here's where I currently stand btw:

Town - havingfitz
I think is town - Joshz, Realeo
Not sure - Aristophanes
I have my doubts - Kmd4390, Akarin, Not_Mafia

Not_Mafia read could be from the perception I have somehow come to that he is worthless and a distraction. In hindsight I wish I had supported any wagons that may have been on him earlier.

[Not_Mafia]

Why the omgus choice of the 3?

[Realeo]

@havingfitz: How does exactly Kmd is in "I have my doubts" I was expected on "Not Sure"

[Kmd4390]

Yeah that's kind of out of nowhere lol

V/LA for work from 2pm today until Thursday

(Again, Wednesday is my next day off, but will be busy with 3 kids in the house. Thursday is the same but I'd imagine I can find some time to catch up if needed by then)

[Realeo]

The more I think it, kmd/Kuroi seems plausible

[Aristophanes]

So, BK/Joshz, BK/Realeo, and BK/Fitz seem extremely unlikely.
This means Ice Mafia is in KMD, Akarin, and NM.

This is part one of many small analyses I'll make. Going to bed now though.

[havingfitz]

@ Not_Mafia...my vote on Akarin is not OMGUS. As I stated in my actual vote...I have suspected that slot most of the game and as you might not have noticed...I was voting Kurio most of yesterday. As was BK for that matter. So on that note...Kurio/Akarin slot would be a good candidate for FIRE MAFIA.

NM...Why are you voting Realeo?

@Realeo...I'm going to ignore Post 1767 because of 1769.

Also OBTW Realeo...you mention in Post 1743 that BK and Ari never mentioned each other. Why are you discounting Ari's vote on BK Day 2 which had him at L-3 for a good portion of the day and the only significant wagon prior to Snowman's to end the day.

At all...are we looking to finish off ICE MAFIA today or are we happy with either variety of mafia?

Cause I do not think Akarin is ICE MAFIA.

[Not_Mafia]

I am looking to lynch scum and would rather go with my best read than getting caught up in lynching a specific scum and lynching town

[Realeo]

Also OBTW Realeo...you mention in Post 1743 that BK and Ari never mentioned each other. Why are you discounting Ari's vote on BK Day 2 which had him at L-3 for a good portion of the day and the only significant wagon prior to Snowman's to end the day.

Because it's a naked vote.

[Realeo]

Mentioning each other requires element of communication. Communication is a two-way street. I don't see a remote two-way conversation.