Open 279 - Rusty Guillotine Mafia - Game Over!

[Equinox]

Status update: AlmasterGM, crypto, and RedCoyote are town. Fate and LuckayLuck are probably town. Maemuki is probably scum. Jury's out on Vigilante Ventriloquist until I read more posts from him as I go further.

To be honest, I'm very surprised that I've narrowed it down so much, which means I'm likely getting snowed somewhere. On the other hand, I'm quite confident in my reads: AlmasterGM and RedCoyote are town from Shadow Dancer's behaviors toward their wagons, crypto's been blindingly town, Fate is Fate and I've given my reasoning on that already, and LuckayLuck's done things that I feel are townish and for some reason I can't find them in my notes. Bleh.

My read on Jarti is weird. For most of Day 1, Jarti basically screamed scum, and I was ready to slap down a vote early. Later in the day, though, Jarti's posting improved and looked more town, so I have no idea what's up with that.

Equinox - where are you in your catchup? Usually you're a pretty hard working town, so I'm pretty anxious to hear from you. Any idea on completion date?

As embarrassed as I am to admit it, I've only just finished Day 1 and am now speeding through Day 2. I shouldn't give a completion date; I'm horrible with meeting deadlines. I am going to continue reading for the rest of the day, though, so hopefully I'll get reasonably far today.

To cut some time: You sounded certain on Day 1 and early Day 2 that one of Concission and RedCoyote had to be scum given wagoning shenanigans. I get the impression you think I'm town, and you're not voting RedCoyote. What changed?

[VP Baltar]

To cut some time: You sounded certain on Day 1 and early Day 2 that one of Concission and RedCoyote had to be scum given wagoning shenanigans. I get the impression you think I'm town, and you're not voting RedCoyote. What changed?

SD flipped scum.

tl;dr version: RC was pushing SD early on and stayed with it, so I'm willing to buy him as town given the current game state. Obviously you're town because SD secured your lynch at deadline.

[Fate]

We'd probably win if we lynched VV, Crypto, and Maemuki.


But that's only if RC and AGM actually READ the game without stupid goggles.

[RedCoyote]

@RC - What we need to do is calculate out exactly how many lynches we have left. I have a feeling this is partially going to have to be luck based given the delayed flips. I just got up so I'm kind of lazy atm, but maybe in a couple hours I will figure out how many times we can lynch and how many of those people listed we can afford to get rid of.

Assuming Equinox flips town, which I'm predicting will happen (and I'm just going to do this without regard for the likelihood of it happening):

N4

AlmasterGM

- NK
crypto - On Guillotine
Fate
Maemuki
LuckayLuck
Vigilante Ventriloquist
RedCoyote
VP Baltar

Equinox

D5

Fate - On Guillotine
Maemuki
LuckayLuck
Vigilante Ventriloquist
RedCoyote
VP Baltar

crypto

N5

Fate - On Guillotine

Maemuki

- NK
LuckayLuck
Vigilante Ventriloquist
RedCoyote
VP Baltar

crypto

D6

LuckayLuck - On Guillotine
Vigilante Ventriloquist
RedCoyote
VP Baltar

Fate

Okay, so, essentially we have to hit scum in the next three days? I believe that's right.

Either Fate > Mae > VV > crypto or Fate > crypto > Mae > VV seems like a safe bet. I may be willing to compromise on Mae first, but I still need to read over some more. I think with the deadline extension I can procrastinate a bit, whoever replaces crypto is going to be the key here though. I think I can get me, AGM, VV, and LL to go with with Fate first, but the last person is probably going to need to be either Equinox or crypto's replacement. I doubt Mae's replacement will want to go that route. VV's willingness to lynch Fate is a much better sign than Mae's reluctance to, and it's a significant part of the reason why I feel like Fate-Mae is the obvious pairing here.

[Equinox]

I'm done.

If everyone besides me, AlmasterGM, and RedCoyote got nuked between now and twilight, I wouldn't mind. Since that's probably not going to happen, Maemuki's the most likely of the rest to be scum. Identity of the third scum is in the air because I'm having a really hard time deciding which one of {Fate, LuckayLuck, Vigilante Ventriloquist, VP Baltar} it is. I'll read RedCoyote's post and double-check stuff later this afternoon.

I'd vote Maemuki now, but I have the feeling we should be lynching the buddy first before lynching Maemuki. That way, if I'm wrong about Maemuki, we'll have the flip to guide us to the other scum given connections. Having Maemuki flip scum tomorrow won't do as much good.

[VP Baltar]

I don't really follow your logic Equinox. You think Mae is most likely to be scum, but we should lynch elsewhere when we really only have one mislynch left....that doesn't sound like a very good plan. Explain.

[Fate]

Having Maemuki flip scum won't do as much good?


Are you fucking....
HIGH??


Jesus there's no hope for this town.

[Equinox]

Wait. We have only one mislynch left? I was under the impression we had 3 days.

Sigh.

Fate, this was what I was thinking before VP Baltar handed me the wrench:

We lynch Maemuki today and then the person we think is Maemuki's partner on Day 5. If Maemuki flips town, chances are we screwed up the succeeding lynch, too.

We lynch X today and then Maemuki on Day 5. If X flips town, we throw out partnership possibilities involving X, and Maemuki's neck is on the line. (Though if Maemuki is town, I suppose we're jolly well fucked anyway.) If X flips scum, we either lynch whoever is the buddy on Day 6 or it's good game. I was thinking this option to hedge bets and whatnot.

Maybe I'm high.

[Equinox]

Ran through the scenarios properly this time. Yeah, this plan is fail; VP Baltar's right. Scum on guillotine is still considered alive for the purposes of win condition.

Vote: Maemuki

This lynch should have happened ages ago.

[hitogoroshi]

Vote Count #62

Luckayluck and Vigilante Ventriloquist have been prodded. (Apologies for the delay on VV's prod.)

Still searching for replacements for Maemuki and crypto. I will allow them to reclaim their slots if they return before any replacements volunteer.

Fate: Vigilante Ventriloquist, RedCoyote, AlmasterGM (L-2)
Vigilante Ventriloquist: Fate, VP Baltar
Maemuki: Equinox

Not voting:

crypto,

Equinox

, Maemuki, LuckayLuck

On guillotine:

Equinox

There is currently no deadline. I will impose a new deadline when all slots are occupied.

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to end the day immediately.

With no new votes until deadline, Fate will be placed on guillotine.

[RedCoyote]

Wait. We have only one mislynch left? I was under the impression we had 3 days.

Scum on guillotine is still considered alive for the purposes of win condition.

Okay, I just read over the rules. I had thought this question was answered somewhere before, but I couldn't find it. I think you're right here, Equinox.

There will be 6 living people tomorrow with 1 of them on the guillotine. If that person isn't scum, then there were be 4 living people tomorrow with 1 on the guillotine. One of those two people must be scum. I calculated it right in my last post, I just put the wrong conclusion down. It's not three days; it's two days. Either this lynch has to be right, or the next lynch has to be right.

Eh, still kind of want to wait for the replacements before changing anything.

[VP Baltar]

Well, yeah, we shouldn't lynch until the replacements get in here and catch up. But we can't put it all on them or this is going to go too much down to the wire.

I'm not really sure how I feel about Maemuki...though I've been back and forth on that slot so many times this game it's ridiculous. You guys really don't see VV as trying to distance from SD late yesterday?

[Vigilante Ventriloquist]

Heh, didn't realize it had been so long since my last post.

I honestly have no idea at this point. As much as I didn't like Maemuki's posts, Jarti really seemed town to me towards the end of his stay. Fate pretty much has to be scum, with his SD interactions yetserday. You know what's terrible? A part of me is still telling me Equinox is scum. I know it doesn't make pretty much any sense logically, but I just can't shake the feeling.

It seems like I'm becoming more and more of a distraction. If I have to be lynched at some point, then so be it, I guess. I'll try not to be a waste of space until then.

[AlmasterGM]

prod dodge

actual post tomorrow

not that i have that much actual stuff to say.

[VP Baltar]

prod dodge

actual post tomorrow

not that i have that much actual stuff to say.

Good to see you're being consistent at least.

[Equinox]

Vigilante Ventriloquist, why would town try to rush the end of Day 3 when Shadow Dancer was on guillotine?

VP Baltar, I just feel stronger about Maemuki, and I'm not too sure of Vigilante Ventriloquist right now. He's holding on to a rather unpopular opinion when the evidence is plainly obvious; that doesn't sound like something scum would do when it's in their best interest to blend in.

[VP Baltar]

Vigilante Ventriloquist, why would town try to rush the end of Day 3 when Shadow Dancer was on guillotine?

VP Baltar, I just feel stronger about Maemuki, and I'm not too sure of Vigilante Ventriloquist right now. He's holding on to a rather unpopular opinion when the evidence is plainly obvious; that doesn't sound like something scum would do when it's in their best interest to blend in.

Yeah, it was kind of making me think too, but I was hoping for more pressure on him today. Ah well. I'm going to review mae/jarti this weekend in full detail to see if I'm inclined to lynch there.

[LuckayLuck]

prod acknowledgement

have nothing to say other than "isn't fate scum? really? you guys don't think he is? I mean I think he is but I'm starting to doubt myself because everyone's in crazymode"

[Fate]

HURRRRRRRRRRRRRR

DURRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

[Fate]

PUT ME AT L-1 YOU FUCK

IM DRUNK ENOUGH TO SELFHAMMER


FUCKIN DO IT


COME ON

[Fate]

AGM AND RC ARE BOTH TOWN.

THEYRE BOTH TUNNELED OUT THEIR ASS WITH STUPIDUITY.


EVEN AGM WHO KNOWS HOW MUCH OF A FUCKING SCUM NINJA I AM IS STUPID TO REALIZE "WAIT, IF FATE WAS SCUM WOULDNT HE HAVE ME FOOLED? WOULDNT HE

NOT

BE GETTIN LYNCHED RIGHT NOW? BUT THEN... 1WAAT IF I THINK FATE IS TOWN HES SCUM AND O_O?*MINSPLODE*


SO YEAH

MY LYNCH IS INEVITABLE.


THE NK TONIGHT WILL TELLUS PLENTY OF SHIT

AND I'LL LOR DOVER YOU CLOWNS TOMORROW AND DIRECT THE LYLO LYNCH.

NOW FUCKIN

DO IT

[VP Baltar]

@LL - you want to give that post another go in English this time?

[VP Baltar]

Ok, I did some rereading of Ythill and SD today. The things that stand out to me are:

1) Ythill was all over LuckayLuck like a cheap suit as long as he was alive. Like, worse than he was riding me even. He mildly pushed SD, but not nearly enough for SD to want him dead night 1 in my opinion. Luckay on the other hand would very likely want him dead. Put the two of them together on a scum team and you have ample reasoning for them to kill Ythill. I highly doubt anyone had a PR read on him.

2) SD doesn't really say much of anything about LL all game. While on his deathbed, SD places LL in the 'third scum what do I know?' category, which seems like a convenient place to put a buddy you haven't paid much attention to all game. They have some mild back and forth that doesn't seem to have much conviction behind it early on and then that's the end of that. The few times they interact seem forced to me.

Additionally, I feel like LL has dropped off the face of the earth as this game has gone on. Not that a lot of people haven't been lazy this game, because they have, but I felt like he was really into the game early on and trying hard. That's why I had a town read on him despite his reads and cases sucking so badly. He's been buddying up to Fate and I all game, as SD was doing too. I think this was a conscious ploy by the scum team to make it Fate+VP vs. RC+AGM. I don't like the suspicion that's been on me this game, but I can probably understand it given I've been kind of lazy and bitchy at times. So, I would think it's reasonable for people that don't have much experience with me to be suspicious over that. SD and LL weren't really at all. That's all WIFOM of course, but that's what my gut is saying.

I'd like LL dead today.

Unvote, Vote:LuckayLuck

[LuckayLuck]

To address case against Fate in English:

1) Fate is scum because last game day, in a game day in which the scenario of Shadow Dancer's alignment was paramount, Fate did not bring it up until the very last moment of the last game day. This led to a lynch that was, on hindsight (of knowing Shadow Dancer's alignment) extremely terrible.

2) Only reason I'm doubting myself is because Fate is pulling on everyone's heartstrings with his townie bluster. Look, I admit that he sounds like a townie; his play has been anything but though.



As far as other people I'd humor lynching, it'd be again going back to the Shaow Dancer events. Don't feel up to it at the moment as we have a lot of players not present, but

***

Vote Count #43

Shadow Dancer: RedCoyote, LuckayLuck, Jarti, AlmasterGM, Concission, Vigilante Ventrioloquist (Lynch!)

AlmasterGM: zoraster, VP Baltar, crypto, Shadow Dancer, Fate
Fate: GLadOS,

Vigilante Ventrioloquist

RedCoyote:

Fate

Not voting:

Concission

I'll say this much:

I

won't

lynch RedCoyote or AlmasterGM.



@ Fate: Do you really think Vigilante Ventriloquist is so scummy when attached to Shadow Dancer? I mean, VV hammered SD. I know this is a surface argument but on a day in which AlmasterGM was almost lynched, that was a pretty serious move.

[RedCoyote]

I'd like LL dead today.

That's a pretty ballsy move over what is effectively just a changing in playstyle and stroking a popular dichotomy. I mean, I don't think LL did much to deny the VPB+Fate / RC+AGM thing, but I wouldn't necessarily say he was the biggest perpetrator either. VPB, do you put any stock into the idea that, because LL's initial scumreads were so offbase, he may have taken that blow to his self-esteem a little hard?

---

@ Fate: Do you really think Vigilante Ventriloquist is so scummy when attached to Shadow Dancer? I mean, VV hammered SD. I know this is a surface argument but on a day in which AlmasterGM was almost lynched, that was a pretty serious move.

This is the hardest part I'm having to swallow myself. Both Jarti and VV were on that wagon, but VV hammered it. I just don't understand how this points to any sort of obvious connection between him and SD. I've been told that it's not the hammer but, rather, it's how VV and SD acted while he was on the guillotine. I didn't notice anything specific when I looked over SD's D3 posts. If anything it just pointed to Fate, especially this post. I just really need to go back over Fate and try again to show how strongly I feel about Fate's scum alignment here. I think I'm going to advertise this game in my signature for a little while.