NY 162: A Week at the Theatres (Game Over)

[Bacde]

Bodyguard?

konowa was a bg, read up

[Bacde]

The gunsmith would get a guility on:

Day-Vig, Bodyguard and the Mafia.

With 3 Goons and a Godfather thats 40% of investigations as false postivies, do you really think thats likely.

I could see a Godfather with 5 scum but not 4.

Also OS is your case that I am amazingly good and amazingly bad at the same time because that is what it seems to me.

@Bacde: How does that work as a team. Please do explain.

nope nope nope nope nope nope

nope

nope

nope

no no no no nope noe nope nope nope nope nopen no

NO

this post makes NO sense

yes you are technically using logic to back up your assertions but you are SO FOCUSED on tiny details that you are missing out on the bigger logic of the whole picture

how does it make MORE sense to have more scum if there is a GF rather than less?

that assertion alone is ridiculous and obviously scum-motivated

I guess there's no way we lynch anyone besides JS

[Oversoul]

Bodyguard?

konowa was a bg, read up

I realize that.
I don't think Bodyguards show up as false positives for gunsmiths.

The only notable exception other than Vigs, SKs, and Mafia are Cops.

[KingdomAces]

Bacde, yes I was actually angry at you. Spam posting is probably my biggest pet peeve in mafia, especially due to how often postcounts are stressed as a factor on activity. Spam posting completely ruins that statistic, yet no one actually pays attention to that part. I know I really should just deal with it, and I'm trying, but can't you really say that 13 posts in 48 minutes with no one else posting between them isn't excessive?

No, I haven't played with a Godfather before, and I never thought you were one. I thought that there was a good chance a Mafia Doctor existed in the setup because there were a few times that Zepher sounded like he knew that there was a vig in the setup, which is what the doctor would imply, even though in this case it's only use would be to counter the gunsmith.

Aside from my playstyle gripes, the only specific reason why I thought you were scum was because of your opening post.

Hey guys, so my role PM says that I am

Mafia

, and I intend on winning this game, so if you could point me to the nearest ML wagon I'd love to hop on and get this game finished

I still think that there is absolutely no town motivation for saying this, even as a joke. As scum, it can get people to think you're town because "There's no way scum would actually say that." The fact that you yourself eventually used that argument when no one else did made it worse for me. I didn't press it at the time because Smash told me that was normal for you, but I never stopped thinking about it.

Also if it wasn't a point of contention, if LyLo was me, Bacde and rofl, I would have lynched rofl due to the obvious setup. Now that it's been mentioned though, this is useless.

I think bodyguards are only negative for gunsmiths if they are the type that kill whoever attacks their target, which Konowa wasn't.

There are a LOT of town PR's in this game, so I wouldn't know about balance, but we do have a 50% successful lynch rate so far, so five full members is probably out of the question. The only other possibility would be traitor, which if there was one it would be the person who stated they were Mafia on the first page of the game.

For now though, I will back off on Bacde. I'll agree that a Jacob lynch would be optimal, but I'd want to wait until I actually had time to reread, and that is not now.

[KingdomAces]

Bacde, yes I was actually angry at you. Spam posting is probably my biggest pet peeve in mafia, especially due to how often postcounts are stressed as a factor on activity. Spam posting completely ruins that statistic, yet no one actually pays attention to that part. I know I really should just deal with it, and I'm trying, but can't you really say that 13 posts in 48 minutes with no one else posting between them isn't excessive?

No, I haven't played with a Godfather before, and I never thought you were one. I thought that there was a good chance a Mafia Doctor existed in the setup because there were a few times that Zepher sounded like he knew that there was a vig in the setup, which is what the doctor would imply, even though in this case it's only use would be to counter the gunsmith.

Aside from my playstyle gripes, the only specific reason why I thought you were scum was because of your opening post.

Hey guys, so my role PM says that I am

Mafia

, and I intend on winning this game, so if you could point me to the nearest ML wagon I'd love to hop on and get this game finished

I still think that there is absolutely no town motivation for saying this, even as a joke. As scum, it can get people to think you're town because "There's no way scum would actually say that." The fact that you yourself eventually used that argument when no one else did made it worse for me. I didn't press it at the time because Smash told me that was normal for you, but I never stopped thinking about it.

Also if it wasn't a point of contention, if LyLo was me, Bacde and rofl, I would have lynched rofl due to the obvious setup. Now that it's been mentioned though, this is useless.

I think bodyguards are only negative for gunsmiths if they are the type that kill whoever attacks their target, which Konowa wasn't.

There are a LOT of town PR's in this game, so I wouldn't know about balance, but we do have a 50% successful lynch rate so far, so five full members is probably out of the question. The only other possibility would be traitor, which if there was one it would be the person who stated they were Mafia on the first page of the game.

For now though, I will back off on Bacde. I'll agree that a Jacob lynch would be optimal, but I'd want to wait until I actually had time to reread, and that is not now.

[Bacde]

This post here:

Hey guys, so my role PM says that I am

Mafia

, and I intend on winning this game, so if you could point me to the nearest ML wagon I'd love to hop on and get this game finished

Was a parody of this post here:

Hi, everyone!

My role PM says that

I am a Paranoid Gun Owner

, and that if I get targeted with an action at Day or Night the player targeting me dies. I asked the mod whether this happened if the player who targeted me is Mafia, and he said everyone who uses an ability on me dies, even if they kill me with their action.

I think I'll probably get targeted by Town a lot more than Mafia, so I'm claiming now. (I'm an alt of a player like that.)

Anyway,

vote: TheTrollie

.

and this post here was just a joke using obviously-false logic:

whew I was afraid people might read into my claim

luckily, mafia ALWAYS lie and thus by saying I am mafia, if I were mafia I'd be lying thus I'd be town

logically, I am now confirmed town

So, keep talking guys but I'm gonna choose the lynch for today

HOWEVER I want to say that now it makes a lot more sense to me why you had a scumread on me on d1 that you never dropped. I guess to read me just look at my play this game, as opposed to my opening posts which I made for fun (and were not "town" or "scum" motivated, just fun motivated)

[JacobSavage]

The gunsmith would get a guility on:

Day-Vig, Bodyguard and the Mafia.

With 3 Goons and a Godfather thats 40% of investigations as false postivies, do you really think thats likely.

I could see a Godfather with 5 scum but not 4.

Also OS is your case that I am amazingly good and amazingly bad at the same time because that is what it seems to me.

@Bacde: How does that work as a team. Please do explain.

nope nope nope nope nope nope

nope

nope

nope

no no no no nope noe nope nope nope nope nopen no

NO

this post makes NO sense

yes you are technically using logic to back up your assertions but you are SO FOCUSED on tiny details that you are missing out on the bigger logic of the whole picture

how does it make MORE sense to have more scum if there is a GF rather than less?

that assertion alone is ridiculous and obviously scum-motivated

I guess there's no way we lynch anyone besides JS

I'll tell you how it makes sense: math.

I'm going to distill it into a table for you to make it easier:

[row][cell][/cell][header]GF[/header][header]No GF[/header][/row]
[row][header]4 scum[/header][cell]40%[/cell][cell]33%[/cell][/row]
[row][header]5 scum[/header][cell]33%[/cell][cell]28%[/cell][/row]

The percentage is the chance that a "has a gun" result is actually town.

@MOD: Would a gunsmith get a "has a gun" result on a bodyguard

[JacobSavage]

	GF	No GF
4 scum	40%	33%
5 scum	33%	28%

Tag fail.

[Dr Producer]

@MOD: Would a gunsmith get a "has a gun" result on a bodyguard

A gunsmith would result the result of "does not have a gun" on a bodyguard.

[Oversoul]

I knew that was a stretch

[Bacde]

	GF	No GF
4 scum	40%	33%
5 scum	33%	28%

Tag fail.

it looks like there is a higher chance of having a GF if there are 4 scum instead of 5

[Oversoul]

Ya I think Jacob sees that it is do or die and that's why he is trying anything possible to stay alive

I'll be back tomorrow, at like 3 pm est.
Probably will place a vote then

[JacobSavage]

The pecentage is the chance of a false positive.

Although now its kind of irrelevent, as I would always assume Bodyguards carry guns.

[Bacde]

why are you using the % of a false positive as a measure of the likelihood of that setup existing rather than looking at previous games and seeing either:

1) How many setups had 4 or 5 people and had a GF (using past data)

OR

2) Consider balance and think about whether its more balanced to place a GF w/ 4 scum or w/ 5 scum (balance intuition)

[JacobSavage]

Why? Because I believe part of balance is making sure you don't get too many false positives.

When there were two town roles givening them already and chucking a godfather on top of it then would make it very weak.

[Oversoul]

You're clinging to balance as the only hope to not get lynched today.
Jacob, you are the only one that makes sense at this point.

I am voting Jacob now. Sorry to Kingdom and to the town and Jacob if Jacob is town and gets quick hammered but I highly suspect that won't be the case.

You had a good run
VOTE: Jacob

[JacobSavage]

Out of interest, who are you going to lynch tommorrow when I flip town?

[Oversoul]

Which do you believe Jacob, 1 mafia or 2 mafia left alive?

[Bacde]

post to reaffirm OS

[Oversoul]

I don't understand that post?

[Oversoul]

To answer Jacob's question you mean?

[Bacde]

just showing you that I'm not a part of a quickhammer committee

[Oversoul]

Well I mean rofl would have to be on to make that even feasibly possible so that doesn't relaly prove anything right now

Jacob's reaction I think either proves that if there is 2 scum he would be one of them by saying that tomorrow bit or that he is the final in an appeal to emotion which I am admittedly a sucker for

[JacobSavage]

I'd say 1 to be honest.

[Oversoul]

yes you would