Mini 147: Warhammer 40,000 - Game Over!

[EnPaceRequiescat]

I am positively confused. So far the roles we have seen don't really look *that* complicated. More or less it seems like a normal set up with the theme added in (especially with townies in the game). Therefore I'm even more cautious of this role that gets more and more complex. Often it means that scum is trying to model a 'spotless' roleclaim.

But since it's a PM from the mod referring to last night, it seems more possible. Still, complex role interactions. alternating sk/roleblock, in mafia, seems more likely, but if what kleimar says is correct, it's not in character.

awaiting explanation,
-sign out-

[kleimar]

I am as confused as you are. I don't understand the reason why I am blocked, but I was. I doesn't seem in character to me, but perhaps there is some explanation for it. Unfortunately Ghazghkull is not very likely to claim and solve the mystery for us.

[warpdragon]

First it is likely that

Ghazghkull is the SK

. Chaos is the main opponent of the imperium and I think it is likely that it is the mafia. Ghazghkull could be a member of the mafia but isn't likely to be the godfather, unless it is an all ork mafia. It is however more likely that he works independent from the other scum as the orks are not closely allied with chaos or any other races. Besides it is unlikely to specifically mention one mafia member in a PM, but mentioning the SK is much more likely. That said. I consider it most likely that Ghazghkull is the SK. But it is by no means certain.

Unfortunately the role-blocker is scum. So it will be a disadvantage. In fact

Ghazghkull is a role blocker

. I assumed that he targeted me and by doing this for some reason the kill became a role block. (Perhaps role-blocks on even nights and kills on odd ones.)
I must say that I find it out of character for Ghazghkull to be a roleblocker, but

according to my PM last night

it was he who role blocked me.

Emphasis mine. Well, well, well. What do we have here? He must have tried to fit with the current "theres an SK" by saing that Ghazghkull is a SK. He said he was roleblocked (believable), and then suddenly said Ghazghkull was the RB when mathcam said:

Hey, I just noticed that in Dr. Seuss mafia, there's a discussion about Pooky being a vigilante, and he claims to have been a vig and made kills nights 1 and 2. So it's not infeasible that our mystery kill night one was from Pooky the vigilante.

He had his PM in quote two before he made the quote one, since it was at night. Therefore, you are lying- you would have known he was a RB when you said he was an SK. There is no SK. There is no RB. Only scum- you

Vote Kleimar

[SinisterOverlord]

+++Official Votecount, V2.6+++

Aelyn: 1 (inHimshallibe)
inHimshallibe: 1 (Aelyn)
mathcam: 1 (Maximumum)
kleimar: 1 (warpdragon)
Not Voting: 4 (mathcam, kleimar, The_Machine86, EnPaceRequiescat)

+++Transmission Ends+++

[Aelyn]

Hi everyone, I got a free couple minutes to pop in.

Firstly, I didn't realise I still had the vote on.

Unvote: inHim

Secondly, Warpdragon's logic seems sound to me, but I'm not sure - Yarrick's almost certainly around, and no-one's contested the claim. Maybe Kleimar got lucky with a missing-character claim, and maybe Warpdragon's logic is deliberately twisting things in a way I don't see, given as I don't have time to re-read the thread. I'll wait and see what happens, but for now:

FOS: Warpdragon and Kleimar

[inHimshallibe]

Hmmm... kleimar's claim appears to be crumbling, or he just doesn't have his facts straight. I'm not getting a good read into this situation.

My vote stays though; this is mainly because Aelyn seems vague to me in the previous post, especially when mentioning warpdragon. He first states the logic "seems sound" but then "isn't sure," and then in the next sentence construes that perhaps warpdragon's logic is now "twisting" a view. Plus, I also just don't feel like Aelyn's pro-town.

[inHimshallibe]

Hmmm... kleimar's claim appears to be crumbling, or he just doesn't have his facts straight. I'm not getting a good read into this situation.

My vote stays though; this is mainly because Aelyn seems vague to me in the previous post, especially when mentioning warpdragon. He first states the logic "seems sound" but then "isn't sure," and then in the next sentence construes that perhaps warpdragon's logic is now "twisting" a view. Plus, I also just don't feel like Aelyn's pro-town.

[Aelyn]

Hmmm... kleimar's claim appears to be crumbling, or he just doesn't have his facts straight. I'm not getting a good read into this situation.

My vote stays though; this is mainly because Aelyn seems vague to me in the previous post, especially when mentioning warpdragon. He first states the logic "seems sound" but then "isn't sure," and then in the next sentence construes that perhaps warpdragon's logic is now "twisting" a view. Plus, I also just don't feel like Aelyn's pro-town.

Let's have a look at that statement, shall we?

Hi everyone, I got a free couple minutes to pop in.

Firstly, I didn't realise I still had the vote on.

Unvote: inHim

Secondly, Warpdragon's logic seems sound to me

Shal I rephrase this to your liking? Warpdragon’s logic appears sound given the premises he has implicitly relied upon: that Ghazghkull’s night actions work the same way no matter who he’s targeting and when he does.

, but I'm not sure - Yarrick's almost certainly around, and no-one's contested the claim.

Perhaps you misunderstood the parsing, inHim. The “I’m not sure” is more relating to the ideas Warpdragon has assumed – he’s ignored the fact that it’s characterful for Ghazghkull to simply roleblock Yarrick instead of killing him. Or perhaps it’s an unmentioned benefit of Yarrick – in the game Yarrick’s known from standing up from crippling blows, which is represented by him having an even chance of standing up again whenever he dies.

Maybe Kleimar got lucky with a missing-character claim, and maybe Warpdragon's logic is deliberately twisting things in a way I don't see

This is simply me hedging my bets, in case Warpdragon’s suckering us. It’s also a reminder to myself, and everyone else, to not take everything at face value. Also, as I stated immediately following that…:

, given as I don't have time to re-read the thread. I'll wait and see what happens, but for now.

Basically, I only had a couple minutes. As the net here is slow loading, I didn’t have time to check that Warpdragon hadn’t simply deliberately left out a significant sentence, or was choosing what parts to quote and how to read it carefully while ignoring context.

Kind of how you did to my post, actually.

I’m still suspicious of Kleimar, and Warpdragon, and I’m now a tad more suspicious of you, given how you conveniently missed important parts of my post.

I’ve gotta go now. I’ll re-read the thread in a few hours, and come to a decision about who’s scummiest. The FOS’s on Warpdragon and Kleimar remain, and I’ll also

FOS: inHimshallibe

[mathcam]

Alright, I really need to spend some time figuring out if there's any way kleimar

isn't

full of crap. Warpdragon does a good job of poking holes in kleimar's claim and subsequent posts, and I was mildly suspicious of kleimar

before

any of that happened.

Cam

[Aelyn]

OK, I figured it's be a good idea to re-read Kleimar’s posts and find everything in favour of, and against, Kleimar's claim.

So here goes.

(All quotes are from Kleimar. I’m gonna crop posts as I see fit, to get irrelevant stuff out of the way.)

Post 1:

random vote: JDTAY

Aelyn, what tyranid's have weapons that need to be charged up? The first killer doesn't seem to be a tyranid as far as I can see. Also it is stated the creature is humanoid…

“The first killer doesn’t seem to be a tyranid” – this could be a hint that he knows the SK isn’t a Tyranid, or it could simply be speculating. It could be interpreted as both for or against his roleclaim.

Post 2:

…So it seems to me that it may indeed be a tyranid. But it can be any other race that have some characters of a larger size.

Again, this could be interpreted as him simply not wishing to seem to eager. However, I feel that at this point he’s uncertain about the SK’s identity – a mark against the claim. In his shoes, I’d have offered the possibility that an Ork might be the SK. I might even have explicitly mentioned Ghazghkull Thraka, although that may be a tad risky given that it would draw Ghazghkull’s attention.

Post 3:

Well two kills almost certainly imply two killing groups. Or less likely one killing group and a vigilance that is doing things that are considered very bad play.
With two killing groups we can expect a town that at least have some powerful roles as well.

This seems to imply that he’s almost certain there are two killing groups. I’m willing to count this post as a mark in favour of his claim.

Post 5:

I agree with Aelyn. It is not that difficult to make a believable roleclaim. But it also depends greatly on the creativity of our mod. If he had stuck with the most important imperial special characters we may be able to find a false claim.

This implies to me that Kleimar doesn’t have a comparatively fringe Imperial character. It also implies that he understands the risk of claiming such an important character – I’d call this a mark in favour.

There’re a few posts which are less involved, and then in post 13:

There are many possible reasons.

There could be a back-up doc. The SK could have a killing restriction. The mafia and SK could have targeted the same player. The SK didn't get in his night action in time.

And there are some other less likely possibilities. Far too many possibilities to rule out a SK just yet.

(Emphasis mine) Woah. This one is big. Note that, according to Kleimar’s claim, he knows exactly why Ghazghkull didn’t kill – because he did a different action on Kleimar instead. However, Kleimar doesn’t even mention the possibility that it’s a flavour-based reason, character interaction, or even that the SK could have a second night ability he chose to use instead. I don’t know about the rest of you, but in Kleimar’s shoes, I’d have at least slid it in there as evidence to back up a future roleclaim. I certainly wouldn’t have made that post while knowingly leaving out the truth. This is, to my mind, a HUGE strike against the claim.

He roleclaimed in post 17, but didn’t mention the roleblocking until post 23, and didn’t mention who roleblocked him until post 24. This seems like an unusual choice, too – I’d have mentioned that as soon as possible, by saying something like

I may as well roleclaim. I’m Commisar Yarrick. Each night I can investigate if someone’s Ghazghkull – I’m not sure if I pick up on other scum or not. Me and Ghazghkull certainly have entwined roles, though – he targeted me last night, and instead of dying, I got roleblocked.” Or something along those lines. If you know something out of the ordinary which seems a tad suspicious, why wait until you’re forced to reveal it instead of volunteering it? If you wait, it feels like you’re trying to wriggle out of a corner – which is exactly what I think you’re doing here.

I’m pretty well convinced, on the re-read, that you’re scum. Warpdragon’s post made me a tad suspicious that he may be deliberately misinterpreting things, but having re-read the thread in detail and pointed out the early discrepancies in your claim…

Un-FOS Warpdragon… for now

Vote: Kleimar

[Maximumum]

I was never totally comfortable with kleimar's claim. It seemed to grow and snowball the more we asked questions about it. The thing that disturbs me the most is that most of this role claim came out in bits and pieces after he was asked about investigations. I find it very hard to believe that he would have been given an investigative role for one character and that character can, in turn, block that one ability. If that is his role it would seem that he can't be killed by the SK because when targeted they are both blocked.
There was never any counter cop claim, but that could have been because one of the first victims was a cop and perhaps there was only one cop role.

I'm still suspicious of cam but

unvote: mathcam

.

As much as I hate putting a vote on a claimed cop, I just don't believe his claim.

vote: kleimar

[EnPaceRequiescat]

Personally, I'm not sure how much

I

would try to slip in in such an early analysis. Good for confirming later roleclaims (I've done that before, although I never had so much not-of-the-norm kind of stuff to reveal), but if it's something as complicated as what kleimar claims, then I'm not sure.

after some thougth, here's my conclusion:
apparently ghazghkull can't hurt kleimar? then kleimar probably should have slipped more info in. Unless he couldn't, because it was a fabricated role. Another semi-new point that I don't think anyone has mentioned yet.

However, it is customary to not reveal everything at once (like investigations) until totally needed. Again, I've never played in a game where the investigator had such complicated mechanisms involved, though. Is it wise to reveal all that at once?

anyhow, the role still seems way too farfetched for a game like this (I think I voiced this opinion before?)

fos: kleimar

, to give you time to explain more, if you can.

[The_Machine86]

I'm going to hold off a vote until Kleimar says something

[kleimar]

I am sorry but I have some connection problems. My browser shuts down as soon as I have finished more than a few lines. I will try again tomorrow morning.

[kleimar]

Well the attack seems mostly about me not giving full information. I however thought it possible that Ghazghkull was not aware of the fact that I was role-blocked by his action, but instead thought that I had doc protection. By saying that I was blocked and by whom I would give him this information and make it possible for him to block me again and again. I hope this explains why I didn't post this information all at once.

As for not giving many hints about my identity in the first posts. Well the scum have more information than the townies so they are the ones who will be able to understand hidden messages earlier than any other player. If I hinted that Ghazghkull was in the game and that the SK might be a role-blocker, who would be the first to notice. (In the second example I assume that Ghazghkull knew he role-blocked me which is by no means certain.)

As it is possible that I will be lynched before I can make a next post, I will give you my investigation results:
On night one I investigated mathcam and found him to work for the same cause as me.
On nigth two I investigated InHimShallibe and got a message that I was intercepted by Ghazghkull and that some fight occurred. At first I mistook it for a message that InHim was Ghazghkull (the reason for my vote on him at the beginning of the day), only after I reread the message did I see that in fact I was roleblocked.

[kleimar]

Well the attack seems mostly about me not giving full information. I however thought it possible that Ghazghkull was not aware of the fact that I was role-blocked by his action, but instead thought that I had doc protection. By saying that I was blocked and by whom I would give him this information and make it possible for him to block me again and again. I hope this explains why I didn't post this information all at once.

As for not giving many hints about my identity in the first posts. Well the scum have more information than the townies so they are the ones who will be able to understand hidden messages earlier than any other player. If I hinted that Ghazghkull was in the game and that the SK might be a role-blocker, who would be the first to notice. (In the second example I assume that Ghazghkull knew he role-blocked me which is by no means certain.)

As it is possible that I will be lynched before I can make a next post, I will give you my investigation results:
On night one I investigated mathcam and found him to work for the same cause as me.
On nigth two I investigated InHimShallibe and got a message that I was intercepted by Ghazghkull and that some fight occurred. At first I mistook it for a message that InHim was Ghazghkull (the reason for my vote on him at the beginning of the day), only after I reread the message did I see that in fact I was roleblocked.

[The_Machine86]

I really think that he is the cop...

FOS warpdragon... from what I can tell there is a SK, the Ghazghkull. And when he said...

Therefore, you are lying- you would have known he was a RB when you said he was an SK. There is no SK. There is no RB. Only scum- you.

Makes me wonder, if there is indeed an SK... well, those are some powerful words in disclaiming that there is one.

[warpdragon]

I'd say that the third quote in my accusatory post is pretty strong evidence that the 2nd kill N1 was due to the vigilante. I'm not the greatest play style analyst ever, but I'd think general tendencies (ie. killing N1) about a role would carry over from game to game. Its entirely possible that "The Throne" could emit a "white hot blast" because of its melta guns (I cant tell which) and it is certainly a "gargantuan, humanoid figure".

[EnPaceRequiescat]

Well the attack seems mostly about me not giving full information. I however thought it possible that Ghazghkull was not aware of the fact that I was role-blocked by his action, but instead thought that I had doc protection. By saying that I was blocked and by whom I would give him this information and make it possible for him to block me again and again. I hope this explains why I didn't post this information all at once.

Quick question (I never really got this): sk win if they're last one standing, right? I'm not sure how good repeated pinging of you would work the sk. And when there's probably still a doc around, I would not think you that big a target (if your role is as restricted as you say).

As for not giving many hints about my identity in the first posts. Well the scum have more information than the townies so they are the ones who will be able to understand hidden messages earlier than any other player. If I hinted that Ghazghkull was in the game and that the SK might be a role-blocker, who would be the first to notice. (In the second example I assume that Ghazghkull knew he role-blocked me which is by no means certain.)

I'd think a SK would notice first? And hinting at Ghazghkull can be a plausible theme-based inference. Again, the exact significance of the SK knowing is doubtful (he can't hurt you?).


Before my thoughts were that you are the sk.

The picture of Pooky's character, though, have me questioning whether or not there is a sk. Any more opinions?

[Aelyn]

The picture of Pooky's character, though, have me questioning whether or not there is a sk. Any more opinions?

Wait, I'm a little confused by this. How does the picture of the Inquisitor in his Throne make you wonder if there's an SK?

Bear in mind, the implication in the first-night death scene is that Azrael hid behind a bunch of ammo crates, which understandably exploded when they got hit by a shot of some sort. Hmm.

Would Pooky really use a vig kill N1 and not N2?

[EnPaceRequiescat]

well, he does slightly fit the description (the humanoid + gargantuan + no effect on the "behemoth").

and as for Pooky, I'm guessing it wouldn't be surprising for him to perform another hit on N2 (if he's really behind the night 1 death). It's possbile that he got killed before carrying out his own action.

[kleimar]

EnPace, you assume that the SK cannot kill me. It is quite possible that he can kill only on odd nights or that he has a certain chance of killing me. I simply don't know the mechanics.

As for the idea of the kill night one being the throne. The description fits, but the throne is by no means the only character, for which it does. It might be. But I find it strange for a vigilance to make a kill night one.

[warpdragon]

I'm not a great analyst of plastyles, but if he did a N1 kill as a vigilante in another game wouldnt you think that he would do that in this game also?

[EnPaceRequiescat]

well, we aren't sure if pooky

did

do that N1 kill.

hmmm... you're right about the mechanics. I'm just a bit skeptical of really complicated mechanics as of now (like the one is hypothesized about what happened to you last night). I'm willing to consider the odd/even night alternating powers though.

[mathcam]

Okay, I've finally caught up with notes on everything.

First, I think Aelyn did an excellent analysis in post 209, making most of the points that I had amassed in my reread.

Second, kleimar's defense to this was mediocre, but still better than I expected. The only reason I'm not voting him is because we suspect this player to be in the game, and no one has counter-claimed. Plus, I feel like there's enough information out there that we should really be able to work this out.

I would really like to know how likely it is that:
1) The second kill night 1 was made by Pooky. Someone familiar with Warhammer (i.e. Aelyn), please comment on this.
2) How likely is it, from the theme point of view, that Ghazhkull is a mafia along with a couple of other scum.

If they are both likely, I think the best explanation for the situation is that Ghazhkull is in the mafia group and has the extra ability of role-blocking. This would make Ghazhkull both a scum and a role-blocker, would make the whole "How does the Ghazhkull work?" thing make more sense, etc.

Take it away, Aelyn (and anyone else).

Cam