Large Normal 223 | New Beginnings | GAME OVER

[davesaz]

I crumbed my role a looooong fucking time ago. And come tomorrow I'll be able to prove what I am. So good luck.

Did you ever highlight this crumb?

Yes but it was Not at all convincing to me. Bunch of disconnected letters iirc.

[davesaz]

someone come in with some kind of conditional solve

if cliff booth really a loyal fruit vendor then x is scum and billy and bob are town

if cliff booth not really a loyal fruit vendor then y or z is happening etc etc

idc. I just want to see the first part done and if I do it it's meaningless now because I've been lynching townies all game

I think I said that rushing is a bad idea. Unless it's something I wrote on the ipad and never pressed send on?
Yes, we should line up our thoughts on this both ways it might go.

[davesaz]

Right, 4004. And I now have a 2 page ISO which for me is a heck of a lot of posts.

[davesaz]

Reminder from da rulz.

[davesaz]

No fruit here.

[davesaz]

I saw dead people. Well, dead person anyway.

Kop
Billy Pilgrim
Cliff Booth
Rick Dalton

Alonzo

Hectic
EeveeLution Army
Hopkirk no
Carcalilly
Garmr
davesaz no
profii no
bob
AaronFrost no
texcat no
Titus no

[davesaz]

I don't get the Titus part of that at all.

[davesaz]

In Normal games, traitors don't convert -- if my memory of the guidelines thread is correct.

As for the gobble kill, if scum thought the traitor would out them, they might want to eliminate the liability. Especially if they were looking good in terms of game position. Though with multiple quasi-investigatives seeming to be the setup style I think they'd likely be very sure they were going to get outed for that to have a higher priority.

I don't remember if gobble 'confirmed' profii in the neighborhood or if all we have to go on is profii saying he's there. Lack of a CC means it's probably true anyway even if it's not confirmed.

[davesaz]

I'm not sure what to think of Eevee. Some of that posting is facepalm bad, but is it scum trying to look bad in order to avoid any difficult stances?

[davesaz]

I don't like to be in the situation of (kinda) knowing someone has had a rough ride in RL recently, and not knowing whether to attribute a subpar performance to that or if they're just scum. Titus's lack of active solving is beginning to give me scumread vibes.

[davesaz]

For balance purposes, a traitor counts as 1/2 (at least the way I figure it). So 5 scum plus 1 traitor (5.5) would be a reasonable starting number with weaker town roles. 6 scum (total 6.5) balances better against stronger town roles. Neither of those data points takes possible scum roles into account, so a relatively strong town could pair against a slightly stronger 5 person scum, or a slightly less strong 6 scum.

From what is revealed we have relatively few vanilla. It might be worth asking if "Town Macho" would be complex for the purpose of a simple FV. Bob's claim to receive fruit is much weaker than Billy's. The 1v1 yesterday with JJD's flip required there to either be another FV or Cliff to be either simple or unmodified FV -- JJD didn't get fruit which meant simple by itself or loyal by itself wouldn't be possible. Cliff had already quasi-crumbed nea and Billy had already claimed vanilla so that vend is straightforward. Bob had not claimed pre-n3. Of course this whole paragraph depends on Cliff being town. Cliff scumflip doesn't cast much doubt on Billy.

There are quite a few potential confirmables in the setup, and a fair number of flipped investigatives too with more claimed.
JJD's role was a scum PR finder. This implies at least one, perhaps multiple goons to yield false negatives. Nonetheless it's a strong vs strong game unless the traitor was the only intended target for JJD. Existence of another FV is pretty much required, to trigger people claiming fruit which gives the disloyal FV a chance to smoke out a target.

Existence of so many motion related PRs indicates a possible ninja role. No motion results (went nowhere etc) can be false with a ninja, in case there are any motion related results that people are holding as clears.

I'm actually torn on Cliff. He's handling this day exactly the way he should, but it's the right way for either alignment. The setup needing a 2nd FV to make JJD's role work doesn't require that role to be a specific alignment, so that doesn't help at all.

[davesaz]

@Dave, I need you to help me through why Bob's claim gets less weight. As I remember, Cliff just asked everyone who got fruit. Bob said he did and Cliff then confirmed he had sent it. I dont see why that gets less weight.

scum!Bob could know he was Cliff's target if scum have a role like watcher or tracker, or even voyeur for that matter. Or he could guess he'd be the target as someone who hadn't claimed a role, since Cliff can only target simple. It's risky, but scumteam are in a very good place and even better if they get someone "confirmed".

We didn't even know for sure there was a FV in play when you initially claimed receiving it. Scum could still know from N1 results, granted, but the probability is much less than it is when they know who to examine N3.

[davesaz]

Titus is someone you never leave for last. I figure a lot of people know that but just to be sure it's out there.

[davesaz]

I'm a simple loyal fruit vendor. I sent fruit to jjd on n1, billy n2, and bob n3.

you could've proven your innocence if you gave one to me or Dave, you realize?

If he's simple as a modifier, he can't vend to anyone with a non-vanilla role. Neither of us would receive fruit in that case.
This fits in with thinking the role was useless in a role madness game.
I'm not sure about "Town Macho" because it's unclear from the role name by itself whether Macho is intended as a role or as a modifier. My guess is that it's intended as a role, and it doesn't matter now that the role is flipped...

For future reference to game designers, if it was intended as a modifier it should be "Macho Vanilla Town".

[davesaz]

Kop definitely needs to go at some point, I'm uneasy about him too.

[davesaz]

@MOD: V/LA until Sunday afternoon UTC-7

[davesaz]

Mod made an announcement that dave was aligned with town. Think it was at the start of the day. I assume that means his role is IC

Correct. I even made reference to it in a question if people caught my "Inexperience Challenged" references as IC crumbs.

[davesaz]

is anyone ever going to question the survivor miller claim? no? alright

It was debunked long ago, given it's not a legal Normal role.

[davesaz]

Agree with Hectic on massclaim.

[davesaz]

OH SHIT i misunderstood what garmrs role did

yeah he could be scum

I sense an aha coming. Consider Garmr's claimed targets.

I've been giving benefit of doubt because I expect near-perfection in PR targeting but don't know if that expectation is fair. Voyeurs

must

target slots who are expected to be targeted by others in order to be useful at all. In town hands, it can catch scum trying to roleblock/jailkeep, confirm whether a kill was by vig/sk or not, confirm an investigative/neighborizer/vendor/visitor targeted who they say they targeted, etc. In scum hands it detects doctors, jailkeeps, and the existence of roles like FV so that scum can effectively fakeclaim. Many other possible uses (basically one per active role) these are just a few. But the key is that the voyeur's target must be a plausible target for something other than the NK.

[davesaz]

Hmm, should I start making book on how many days the mod will take to post a vc and flip?

[davesaz]

Bottom of page 189. That's a lot of information from bob. Not sure where it's going just yet.

[davesaz]

Given how you reacted to the buddying from 'A' then other day (instant lockscum) I was getting surprised how strongly you townread me unless you assumed I was just memeing with my entire read on you.

The buddying from A was extremely artificial and had no good reasons. And there were times where I asked him to give me chancellor/or vote Ja for my presidency since he townreads me, and I'd see annoyance/reluctance from him but he had to do it because he "townread me".
I didn't think you were memeing, I just thought you were using R.

Code talk is prohibited.

[davesaz]

Hey all. A reminder of my replacement ethic when the game is too large to manage - I do not read everything, do not ask me to. The game is the size of a small novel, and layered with entrenched positions. My intent is to look at things with fresh eyes and go from there. I may read selections from the backlog at my discretion, but if there’s something specific I should look at, let me know.

Sup?

Have you received results of your predecessor's actions (if any) from the mod?

[davesaz]

Wow, this thing needs a kick.
I'm not exactly swimming in time, but gotta do something.

Hopkirk

may

be acting a little more organically in regard to Hectic (and perhaps vice versa) but it's been a long time coming and I'm leaning toward saying it's out of sheer necessity to have the read not appear artificial.

I would not expect town to ever say it's ok to be lynched at this stage. Mathematically it's getting close to the point where we can't afford mislynches. Cliff's belief that extra near-conftown were worth it makes sense, but I think that's the point where it cuts off. I think that the person who suggested it was misguided town, but I think it's time to take that kind of talk off the table.

Titus's statements to the effect that "VCA needs a scumflip to be strong" are at least partially

correct

but I find myself questioning whether town!Titus makes that distinction or if she does VCA anyway in spite of the lack of a scumflip to color it. I'm getting a feeling of too much excuse.

Rick's action claim is the correct thing to do.

I should just hit submit. With how work normally goes I'll get interrupted and forget about this.

[davesaz]

It's relatively easy to find an answer in Garmr's ISO. Multiple people asked that question back when Carcalilly revealed the ascetic.

[davesaz]

With the macho claim and the limit

I don't understand this part.

[davesaz]

Note to self.
Pine(Kop), Hectic, EeveeLution Army, Titus, Hopkirk, AaronFrost, texcat

[davesaz]

I didn't include Hectic's miller survivor claim.

That's a good thing to not include, as you can see by reading Normal Game.

What does the list tell you?

[davesaz]

In particular what does it tell you about scum?

[davesaz]

It's eerie how those two post around the same time of day a lot.
<looks at location fields>
Oh, um never mind.

[davesaz]

I'm just restraining myself from doing the obvious, in case the obvious is bait. We have so many clears and quasi-clears but little to show for it.
Maybe this is the one game I play where obvious scum are actually scum.
Well that's not quite true, there have been other games like that. But it's so rare, and there have been enough anti-town town.

[davesaz]

I feel like Titus and Pine have to both be scum in almost any team I can think of.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Pine

[davesaz]

@Garmr
The problem I'm still having is why you'd voyeur a mason at all.
Voyeur is a non-specific rolecop. If you want to know what roles exist in a game, you target people who you expect to be targeted.
Detecting that a kill exists is useless, and that's the only thing other than a doc who expects to target a mason.

Town

detecting a doc is useless. As town you don't need to know about the existence of one.

I think you have claimed your targets, but I saw pretty big gaps in reasoning on why you'd target them.

I would still put Garmr near the end. I see the overall balance as being at least kinda town motivated.

[davesaz]

Looks like we have a volunteer for tomorrow, if there is one.

[davesaz]

At this point it doesn't affect a lynch unless we have counted wrong.

[davesaz]

So much facepalm play by town pr.

LUV I was hard on you but you showed class in owning up to the issues. Just stick to the promise to mod only when you do have the time.

I should push hunches more. Ricks play was correct for scum, which is what I meant by that one comment. But I have a hard time attacking a soft claimed doc. Titus totally fit my scumtells for her but I let it slide because of honoring RL. In both cases the gut reaction should have overridden the canonical play.