Ugh, this ended up long again. I'm not doing a very good job of keeping to my "conciseness is pro-town" mantra this game. Consider the bolded parts my version of a tl;dr.
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@Pine:
I think you're just mad because I'm not falling for the prime mislynch target of the day and you were counting on me sheeping onto this wagon like the other ones.
Your "totes coaching" case is terribly weak, and
you didn't even respond to my point that I specifically avoided saying anything about DY's case on him.
Pine wrote:The coaching is in telling Peabody to be careful how he responds to the wagon, and make sure it's as Townie as possible. Saying what you did ruins the natural reaction we were all looking for.
^ That? I don't even count that.
Anyone who's not a complete moron knows to respond to a wagon on them carefully and as townily as possible as either alignment.
Your "coaching" case is complete, unabashed bullshit, and letting everyone know my read on a player and that I fully intend to defend that player if I think their reaction isn't scummy ... isn't scummy. As Freud said, sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
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But yeah, as Pine BRILLIANTLY PREDICTED
,
I still don't think Peabody is scum.
It just doesn't add up right.
If I stuck Peabody's iso #13 and #14 in a vacuum, hellz yeah I'd think he was scummy.
But the fact of the matter is, we have to look at the bigger picture.
If Peabody is scum, Trendall is more likely town than Peabody's scumbuddy, and I will absolutely eat my hat if Trendall is town.
There's just no way. I will accuse the mod of lying about the flip before I will believe a Town!Trendall flip.
But even regardless of Trendall's alignment,
I don't see any motivation for Scum!Peabody to unvote at that point that makes sense.
A smart Scum!Peabody probably would have bussed Scum!Trendall super hard because at that point Trendall's wagon looked pretty close to inevitable, and if he was going to not vote his buddy I would think any scum with a lick of sense would have avoided voting and then unvoting. Likewise, a smart Scum!Peabody probably would have kept his vote on a Town!Trendall and then lurked the rest of day and worried about washing his hands of the mislynch vote tomorrow (probably by pushing my mislynch next given that so many people seem to be at the very least okay with the idea).
This leaves the very obvious possibility that, maybe, Scum!Peabody just isn't very smart. And maybe that's a possibility, but I like to think I'm pretty good at reading people and I don't think he's an idiot, or at least not the kind of idiot that would vote/unvote a popular wagon and then give such a weak reason for doing so as scum.
I've got a strong gut feeling of, "it's such a lame reason it
must
be true" going on with that whole "I unvoted because my vote was anti-town" thing.
Next, we've got Pine.
If Peabody is scum, Pine is probably not scum with him.
Similarly, I will eat my hat if Pine isn't scum, but I'm a little less sure of him than I am of Trendall at the moment. Pine has not only sheeped on cases but spent pretty much the entire game so far tunnelling on Peabody for what were, until very recently, pretty weak reasons, to the point that it got distracting.
I get the feeling the only reason he even bothered FOSing me when he said little or nothing about me before that
(despite me making it very clear I suspected him)
was to try to ingratiate himself with the crowd of people who think I'd be a good second or third choice for a lynch
(most of whom I think are town, so it definitely makes sense that scum!Pine would try to get in their good graces).
Then, there's the fact of how quickly the Peabody wagon sprung up and the Trendall wagon dissipated.
This makes a lot more sense if Peabody is town than if he's scum. If he's scum, then I'd be willing to bet that both of his buddies are probably on his wagon bussing him, and considering there's no way Pine is one of his scumbuddies given his and Peabody's earlier interactions and I have townish reads on everyone else on the wagon except for DarthYoshi, that probably means several of my town reads are wrong.
This is going to sound incredibly cocky, and I apologize in advance for that. (side note: geez, I end up apologizing for my cockiness in almost every game I've ever played, here and offsite. It's becoming a trend. e.e) But,
if Peabody is scum then, as I see it, at
least
four of my reads are dead, flat-out wrong, and I'm just NOT willing to accept that I've gotten that bad at this game.
Also, one more thing.
Peabody dropped something I view as a pretty strong town-tell in the early pages of the game
, and it's part of the reason I'm willing to continue defending him now even when half the game thinks both of us are scum. I wasn't going to say anything about my find, because if I tell people I have a secret town-tell, they want me to tell them what it is before they'll believe me, but if everyone knows what it is, it ceases to be a town-tell. But it's there, I definitely saw it, and I'll share it and why it works in post-game if we win.
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I realize that, in all likelihood, no one is going to listen to a word I just said, at least not right now. Peabody will probably get mislynched, and if I'm actually on the right track I'll probably get NKed, or if I'm on the wrong track I'll probably get left alive to get mislynched Day 2 (and Trendall and Pine will lurk through the day and no one will particularly notice or care until it's too late). In that case, I ask one thing and one thing only:
if you're not willing to listen to me now, please for the love of whatever gods you believe (or don't) in, come back to this post when Peabody and/or I am dead. And then lynch Trendall and/or Pine at your earliest convenience.
/soapbox
I've had a town read on Peabody for most of the game, and even after re-reading him in iso after DarthYoshi's case on him came up I still think he's more likely town than scum (but this will depend a lot on how he responds to the sudden pressure on him). I'm also not at all fond of how ridiculously quickly this wagon built up when Trendall is far, far scummier in my opinion.
