Asshat Mole 2012 - Episode 2 (Don't Forget the Rules)

[Flameaxe]

I GOT IT, BRO. (I never really pay much attention in bioprocess anyway)

Challenge Two - Exemption Elimination

You guys have chosen

inspiratieloos

as the player most deserving of an exemption. So congratulations! You win

the chance at

an exemption!

For this challenge, the 11 remaining players will be given 10 boxes. Six of these boxes contain an exemption, four of them contain $10000. You may eliminate however many boxes from play that you wish. This can be done by simply posting '

(Your name) opens Box #

', where your name is...your name, and # is the box number from 1-10. As another reminder,

you do not need to open 9/10 boxes

for the challenge to be completed. If you are happy with the remaining odds, you may chose to stop eliminating boxes in the same manner.

Each player may only open one box maximum

.

When you are done eliminating boxes, inspiratieloos will be allowed to choose a box. This box will be the prize given to either inspiratieloos alone (exemption) or $10000. Good luck, team!

Hullo. Re: Bolded sections, If you open 9 boxes, the tenth is automatically given to inspire. Sorry that was not clear. As for each player only allowed to open one box...well that was kind of clear.

[inspiratieloos]

Uhm, I think you might want to restart the game then, because obviously it becomes: If I'm the mole open all but one, if I'm not the mole open none (with 11/12 chance of me not being the mole, the right course of action is pretty obvious)

The fact that they could open all boxes and leave me with nothing (and the mole presumably knowing what's what) was the only relevant part of it in the first place.

[animorpherv1]

If I'm the mole open all but one,

Um, no? The mole can only open 1. Non-moles can open one.

[inspiratieloos]

If I'm the mole and you open 9 boxes, I have to take the tenth, which means I have no chance to sabotage and giving 40% odds of getting money instead of 0%. If I'm not the mole and you don't open any box, the mole can't take out a money box, which increases the chance from 33%to 40%.

[Flameaxe]

Game carries on. To be frank, I don't see the first bold as all that unclear to lead to this anyway. It reads to me (and peg) that the game would end at 9/10 boxes opened, which really only leads to one outcome, the one I describe above. What that line says is that you can choose to end the game before that, if you feel the odds are in your favor, etc etc.

I don't see a reason for a restart.

[animorpherv1]

I was reading that as the mole opens all 9 boxes....

[inspiratieloos]

9/10: nine or ten, 9/10: nine out of ten, 9/10: nine to 10.

[JDodge]

keep goin

open more boxes

get that exemption out of play

[JDodge]

we've been given no reason to give any shits about the money, so that's not an excuse as a note

[inspiratieloos]

It doesn't really matter any more anyway, high chance that the mole has already picked, could have picked exemption for WIFOM, etc. etc.

[JDodge]

who gives a shit if the mole has picked, i don't want you getting a fucking exemption

[inspiratieloos]

Dude, you can't pick all ten boxes, as long as you're not the mole you can't do anything to change the chance of me getting an exemption.... Except promoting the picking of boxes I suppose.

[JDodge]

Dude, you can't pick all ten boxes, as long as you're not the mole you can't do anything to change the chance of me getting an exemption.... Except promoting the picking of boxes I suppose.

it does, if we open the last 2 exemptions then you don't get the exemption, thus we can change the chance of you getting an exemption

your point seems to be not knowing how math works

[Xalxe]

I have a counter-proposal. Inspie's not the mole and can open a box now.

[JasonWazza]

With even odds and only four boxes i see no reason to open a new box and here is why

We currently have a 50/50 chance to getting money.

a wrong move (or right) moves us to a 66/33 chance.

Had we had more boxes it would be ok to do so, but the fact that we are down to the last 4 and can't try to re-increase the odds (without entirely risking our money) i think it is better to stay 50/50 over trying for a 66/33 chance.

JasonWazza will not be opening a box (i need to do that right?)

[Xalxe]

Yes, but bolding is sexy.

And you are right.

[JDodge]

who gives a fuck about the money

[inspiratieloos]

Dude, you can't pick all ten boxes, as long as you're not the mole you can't do anything to change the chance of me getting an exemption.... Except promoting the picking of boxes I suppose.

it does, if we open the last 2 exemptions then you don't get the exemption, thus we can change the chance of you getting an exemption

your point seems to be not knowing how math works

Not really, because the chance that you open 2 exemptions is exactly the same as the chance that you open 2 money boxes.

I'm talking about a strategy here, as in: We open a box and if it contains A we do X and if it contains B we do Y. While opening the boxes you changed the odds at that moment, you've never changed the total odds. Except that one time you let the mole pick a box (which you probably did by letting everyone pick without a plan), assuming he knows what's where, because he made an informed decision.

@Jason, if you open a box there is a 50% chance that you increase your odds to 2/3 and a 50% chance to reduce your odds to 1/3, if you let me pick a box now there is a 100% chance that the odds are 2/4 (or 1/2). Guess what: 50%*2/3+50%*1/3=0.5=100%*2/4.

TL;DR the

only

thing that matters in this whole game is whether you let the mole pick a box or not (which you guys probably did).

[Blackberry]

Inspire has high chances of being the mole and losing the money for us. The mole knew this challenge was coming up so he wanted to be helpful ahead of time so he could sabotage it the best way. I say we pick boxes for him. As inspire has pointed out: either way the ODDS are 50/50 it just comes down to whether inspire is the mole. And since the mole knew this challenge was coming its very likely inspire is the mole and acted helpful in the beginning to get this role (and avoid suspicion).

[Xalxe]

Challenge Two - Exemption Elimination

Before the second challenge can begin, I will need you all to decide on a player you feel is most deserving of an exemption at this point (can be done in thread).

Other notes: I got off my ass and finished the logo on the first post. It may be an important part of the first two posts.

Is it majority vote?

You can always be cool and go unanimous anyway. DRAMA?

But yeah.

D3f, I'm pretty sure we need a unanimous vote, rather than a majority.

Also, I can't help thinking that inspir is being

too

un-mole-like. Letting everyone know he's in the game, helping people to find the game (albeit somewhat unsuccessfully), going for the exemption (which the Mole doesn't really need to do at game start)...

Art indicated 'yeah' to Xalxe's question. So it would appear to be a Majority Vote.

Vote: inspira

If you believe he is the Mole, why did you vote for him?

[JDodge]

picking boxes improves the odds or reduces the odds, but us picking is a 50/50 chance of either chance at better odds by getting an exemption out or worse odds by getting money (in which case we have another option to open, with a 66% shot at us bringing the odds back to 50)

[JDodge]

more specifically, it looks like this:

for every choice there are two possible outcomes - pick exemption or pick money

if pick exemption, there is no need to pick further unless we want to pick on the 33% chance of removing the exemption (which is probably not a good idea), meaning our base chance of removing the exemption is 50%

the chance of removing money is also 50, but the reasonable choice after that is to open another box on the 66% chance of increasing our odds back, meaning that on the assumption that opening another box is what we would do, the following is our overall chances if we decide to open another box:

50% chance of a lower chance of exemption
33.33% chance of nothing happening
16.66% chance of guaranteeing exemption

there is no reason to not open another box at this point in time

get

fucking

opening

[inspiratieloos]

You... Fail.
0.5*2/3+0.3333*1/2+0.1666*0=0.5

At least BB has a valid argument.

[JDodge]

there's not

there's an 83.33% chance of no or a positive effect
and a 16.66% chance of a negative effect

you're just generally wrong

anyone with half a brain can see it so w/e

open

more

fucking

boxes

[inspiratieloos]

Lets flip 2 coins, if both land on heads you give me €100, if not I'll give you €1. Look there is a 75% chance of a positive effect.
(Just for illustration purposes, in the boxes case the effect is zero, not negative)