Amnesiac Mafia - Pre-Game Stage! OOPS GAME OVER

[Human Destroyer]

HD, it's not necessarily true that either Ceph or I must be scum. I'd say it's fairly likely scum have some sort of blocking role. If there was no Rolestopper, that's why Ceph could have not received the Lender pass. I do, however, still think that the more likely case is that Ceph is scum and didn't receive the fakeclaim, so he had to claim not to have received it in case someone else had. If there really are three scum and we wrongly lynch Ceph, it's game over, so I don't want to rush into that.

Yes because scum would take the risk of possibly wasting their roleblocker on someone who will likely be rolestopped.


I mean maybe if they had the Rolestopper fakeclaim they might do it?

But...you said it yourself--it's highly unlikely three scum are in the rest of the pool so yeah. Plus I don't really think you're scum. Plus, there's lots of scum motivation of not claiming you got the Lender role.

[serrapaladin]

Well, the chance of hitting a useful role to block is pretty low, whereas with me they would have had about a 50% chance of preventing the town-confirming chain, so I wouldn't discount the possibility.

[Cephrir]

Well, I'm not 100% certain. But seeing as 3 mafia vs. 10 town is a pretty conventional standard and the game's mechanic seems to favor town, I don't think the game would be balanced unless this is mylo.

[Cephrir]

The mafia almost have to try roleblocking serra in theory. The chances that a living town player was a rolestopper last night was only 6/17 if we assume 3 mafia left. And if they succeed they probably win, and if they don't they're not looking too hot.

[Nachomamma8]

I gave Sven the power to do crazy things last night. Can you confirm?

I seriously fucking doubt scum have a blocking role AND a strongman, that's stupid.

I was a VT last night.

[Cephrir]

That's not stupid, have you seen how confirmable town is? Like the whole point of half these roles is to confirm themselves.

[Nachomamma8]

Today is some day that's definitely a decently large number, and the only instance we've had of a role failing is my failed voyeur of chesskid. Do you really think scum fucked up for that long?

[serrapaladin]

Lol Nacho, you motivated a VT...

There are a bunch of VT roles, and it's quite reasonable scum already tried blocking GiF yesterday, but failed, so I think a Roleblocker could make sense.

[Cephrir]

Hider- we don't know if this fails
Commuter- we don't know if this fails
Lender- we probably know if this fails but not certainly
Motivator- we only find out whether this failed if it didn't hit a VT
Rolestopper- we don't know if this fails
VTs + Vengeful- don't have night actions.

So basically, yes.

[serrapaladin]

Yes because scum would take the risk of possibly wasting their roleblocker on someone who will likely be rolestopped.

This actually worries me a bit. HD is trying pretty hard to argue that this implicates Ceph...

[Nachomamma8]

let him talk before speculation on the role, please. I'm fully aware with how it works.

[Vifam]

Eh there is a chance HD could be scum

[Nachomamma8]

vifam
do you want to step it up today and do cool things together?

[Vifam]

Yeah this is the only game I'm in, it's almost 12 though so I'm gonna go to bed


I think it might just be better to lynch today thought

[Nachomamma8]

i just need someone to make this game a little more entertaining while I do big things because i just can't muster up the motivation alone

[Human Destroyer]

Yes because scum would take the risk of possibly wasting their roleblocker on someone who will likely be rolestopped.

This actually worries me a bit. HD is trying pretty hard to argue that this implicates Ceph...

"He's showing people why his scumread is scummy!"

This is bad...how?

[serrapaladin]

You're pretty quick to discard the alternative without much thought. If scum has an RB, I was by far the best target, as both Ceph and I have explained.

It's not a great theory, as it has to assume an RB (Occam's razor and stuff), but this setup is quite townsided, so I wouldn't be surprised by some useful scum PR's. Without an RB, the Lender role is almost too powerful.

[Svenskt Stål]

VOTE: unvote

Dont have any motivation right now but my gut says HD.

[Human Destroyer]

You're pretty quick to discard the alternative without much thought. If scum has an RB, I was by far the best target, as both Ceph and I have explained.

It's not a great theory, as it has to assume an RB (Occam's razor and stuff), but this setup is quite townsided, so I wouldn't be surprised by some useful scum PR's. Without an RB, the Lender role is almost too powerful.

Then, tell me, where has this magical RB from the sky been before last night?
That's the most major flaw with your theory.

[Svenskt Stål]

I dont really get all the mechanics talk, its not my forte, but I think some of the lesser actions of the scum team might have been used/not used to strengthen claims. Like x says he will do action y to player z, someone confirms that player x did visit player z, but player x did not do action y but instead action q.

[Cephrir]

There are only 4 roles (Follower, Voyeur, Muckraker, Reporter) that find out if they failed and 2 (Lender, Motivator) that might find out depending on stuff. That's why I don't think it's implausible that we haven't seen evidence of the RB yet.

Sven: That's part of the reason I suspect a mafia tracker as well. I would not be surprised if we were up against Strongman/Tracker/RB or possibly Redirector/Goon.

[Svenskt Stål]

I havent been following everything, where are you leaning with regards to the lynch?

[Cephrir]

My preferences are as follows:
1.) HD
2.) Serra
3.) Jacob
4.) No Lynch

[Cephrir]

That said I like serra's play today. Going hard for me would have been the easy way out.

[Nachomamma8]

You're pretty quick to discard the alternative without much thought. If scum has an RB, I was by far the best target, as both Ceph and I have explained.

It's not a great theory, as it has to assume an RB (Occam's razor and stuff), but this setup is quite townsided, so I wouldn't be surprised by some useful scum PR's. Without an RB, the Lender role is almost too powerful.

Not really, no.

There are only 4 roles (Follower, Voyeur, Muckraker, Reporter) that find out if they failed and 2 (Lender, Motivator) that might find out depending on stuff. That's why I don't think it's implausible that we haven't seen evidence of the RB yet.

Sven: That's part of the reason I suspect a mafia tracker as well. I would not be surprised if we were up against Strongman/Tracker/RB or possibly Redirector/Goon.

That scumteam is horribly stacked.