Open 216 - Generic Reality Television Mafia! Day 2!

[ConfidAnon]

I will begin searching for replacements for our three no shows. If any of you know anyone who would be interested in jumping in a game real quick, let them know.

[imaginality]

Should we believe claims? And risk counterclaim by real cops?

It depends on the situation I think; when and why they claim. We should be somewhat wary becuase with two cops, I could see a scum claiming cop, knowing it would require both real cops to come forward to counterclaim them. That trade-off seems like it would be in the scum's favour.

Maybe hypocoping to make sure both cops dont target same person?

Hypocop doesn't help make sure both cops don't target same person. It just ensures the cops are able to provide their results without having to claim.

But this will help scum with targeting Tailor.

Yes, normal hypocop is a poor strategy as it helps the scum narrow down who the possible cops are too quickly. I think that applies to this set-up too. That said, I have an idea for a variant of it which might overcome the problem. I want to give it a bit more thought before suggesting it, though.

How much can we rely on cops investigation?

It depends on what we think the scum will choose to do:

If tailors always target a mafioso, the likelihood that a guilty result is accurate (assuming the cop is confirmed) is (n-1)/n, where n is the number of scum still alive. So, 2/3 with 3 scum, 1/2 with two scum, never with one scum. And an innocent result is always accurate.

If tailors always target a townie, the likelihood that an innocent result is accurate is (m-1)/m where m is the number of townies (including cops). E.g. 7/8 with 8 townies alive. And a guilty result is always accurate.

If tailors target at random, then the likelihood of a result (innocent or guilty) being accurate is (m+n-1)/(m+n). E.g. 10/11 with 11 players remaining.

Another point worth bearing in mind is that any night when we have two cop results on different players, at least one of those results must definitely be accurate.

[ConfidAnon]

Shattered Viewpoint replaces 12Keyblade.

Day 1, Vote Count 1:

2 Chnorek (Chronopie, imaginality)

1 Furcolow (Chnorek)
1 imaginality (Deer)
1 Chronopie (ksen)
1 ksen (Miyu)

Not Voting: Shattered Viewpoint, Cadda Tha Pink Squirrel, DoItRiley, Furcolow, mavsfan41, nopointinactingup

(Note: Red marks the current majority.)

[Shattered Viewpoint]

Hi -- I'm gonna have to read this whole, amazingly loooong thread.

Can we have a deadline extension so I can catch up??

[nopointinactingup]

Hey everyone,

How do you guys feel about setup?
Shoud we believe claims? And risk counterclaim by real cops?
Maybe hypocoping to make sure both cops dont target same person? But this will help scum with targeting Tailor.
How much can we relay on cops investigation?

- This's the 1st time I've ever played this setup so i don't have any particular feeling. One thing I've noticed is that as rounds pass by, the fewer people there are, the more chance that cops will get a false result. So I guess the setup is a bit biased towards the mafia.

- It depends on the situation really.

- hypocoping?

- Cops investigation, in my opinion, will play a vital part in scum-hunting. In fact, I think we should consider no-lynch day.

[Deer]

a no lynch today is a bad idea. what if mafia hits a cop tomorrow? why not have some discussion today so we can gain some information?

[Chronopie]

No lynch

, while it may sound good in theory, is terribad in practice. One (or more) of the MD threads has compared theory and practice on D1 NLs, and concluded that the info from a D1 flip > Discussion in D2 from NL.

If the scum agreed to No Kill/Frame as well, (basically giving the cops a free investigate), then NL would make some sense. However chance of that ~0%.

--

btw, I can't find a definition of hypocopping in the wiki or MD, can anyone link?

[Shattered Viewpoint]

{Geez, not even a chuckle from my first post? Wow. Tough crowd.}

@everyone: has anyone played with anyone else on the list here? I'm pretty sure I haven't played with any of you yet.

I have played with two people here.

Maybe hypocoping to make sure both cops dont target same person? But this will help scum with targeting Tailor.
How much can we relay on cops investigation?

I believe this is the first mention of "hypocopping" in this game. I can't find it

anywhere

. Please define your term.

Hypocop hypocop

math lesson

You seem to know what this term means. Please tell us newbies.


No lynch is never never (hardly ever) a good idea.

[Shattered Viewpoint]

Found it!

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7307

(Google is your friend.)

[Chronopie]

I agree with Yosarian2 (post 12)

anyone that 'claims' an innocent on one of the mafia (that wasn't 'framed' by their group action), is auto-ruled out as a cop.

Also with seol in post 18 has a very good point.

/no sign for hypocop.

[chnorek]

sory i couldnt explain hypocoping, i was sleeping (gmt+2).

agree with Chronopie about hypocoping. with 3 scum and tailor hypocoping wont work for sure.


@nopoint how could no-lynch on D1 benefit town?

[ConfidAnon]

XScorpion replaces Cadda Tha Pink Squirrel.

[XScorpion]

Hey guys.
...not much going on huh? Let's generate more discussion

Vote: Chnorek

because he has the most votes.

[ksen]

I don't mind trying the hypocop idea.

Any other takers?

[imaginality]

@ksen: why are you in favour of hypocop?

[XScorpion]

I don't really like the hypocop idea since it gives scum too much information. Cops should just give town reads on the people they investigate as innocent and scum reads on people they see as guilty.

[Shattered Viewpoint]

I don't really like the hypocop idea since it gives scum too much information. Cops should just give town reads on the people they investigate as innocent and scum reads on people they see as guilty.

But then, won't the scum just kill the cops? There has to be a better way.

[ConfidAnon]

Furcolow and mavsfan41 have failed to post in 72 hours and are being prodded. If they fail to respond within 24 hours, they will be replaced.

On a side note, I am thinking of calling this Replacement Mafia.

[imaginality]

Okay, so here is the suggestion for an alternative to hypocop that I alluded to earlier. I'm interested to hear what people think of this:

Everyone lists *one innocent result and one guilty result* tomorrow. Non-cops choose their targets using random.org, cops list their actual result and choose the other target using random.org.[1] Neither cop claims D2.

Doing this means the mafia are less likely to be able to narrow down the cops effectively than with normal hypocop, since both results that a player claims have to be impossible for the mafia to be sure that player is a townie.

If we mislynch today

, the mafia have at best a 12% chance of ruling out more than two townies if a townie dies overnight, and 60% of the time they won't be able to rule out more than one, which would give them only a 33% chance of hitting a cop the next night. If a cop dies N1, they can expect only about a 20% chance of hitting the other cop N2. If we lynch correctly today, the odds are even better for us.

Following this approach means that if a cop dies without having claiming, we will know that their actual result was one of their two claimed results. This is likely to be quite helpful, especially as numbers reduce and we are able to rule out one of the possibilities. It also gives us a fairly decent chance of going into D3 with both cops still alive.

By way of contrast, normal hypocop allows mafia to rule out at least three townies over 40% of the time. (compared to the 12% for the above strategy)

I can give all the maths behind this if you like. (Figuring out mafia odds beats doing real work. )



[1]It's possible it could be better if players list an innocent result on someone they think is pro-town, and a guilty on someone they suspect, rather than choosing purely at random. This would make it harder for the mafia to narrow down their suspects based on their behaviour (e.g. someone trying to get their guilty result lynched might be more likely to be cop).

[XScorpion]

I like this strategy.

[Deer]

Me too. I can't find any flaws, really, except I don't know if I totally agree with this:

[1]It's possible it could be better if players list an innocent result on someone they think is pro-town, and a guilty on someone they suspect, rather than choosing purely at random. This would make it harder for the mafia to narrow down their suspects based on their behaviour (e.g. someone trying to get their guilty result lynched might be more likely to be cop).

If there's someone who is blatantly town and someone who acts totally scummy, I wouldn't want lots of the same or similar cop results. Better to do it at random, if you ask me.

[mavsfan41]

my bad guys for not posting yet. I didn't realize the game had started.

[Miyu]

I really don't think hypocopping would work in this scenario. The only times I've seen it used were in games with multiple cops and each had a different sanity.. and that was usually four cops, in a village smaller than twelve.

Two cops in a village of twelve with three scum, yeah I don't see it working.

[XScorpion]

@Both of the above: What do you think of imaginality's suggestion instead?

[Chronopie]

Dual result Hypocopping would probably work in a smaller setup, and we also have to consider framing could skew any

actual

cop results. Over-reliance on the setup will probably result in a loss.

That said, the idea can still be helpful when one of the cops flips. But nothing will come of it today, as there's been no night actions yet.

Less Setup breaking, more scum hunting.