New York 146 Zach's Insane Mafia World (OVER)

[Kamrun]

We did choose to jailkeep RedFF N3. I'll have to go through our skype conversation again to figure out why, since I remember close to nothing about this game.

-Ank

[havingfitz]

Why the hell did you jailkeep the bodyguard who could save the cop? WTF? How does that even make a bit of sense? If I recall...you were supposed to block me or DV or some other VT....NS maybe. FFS.

UNVOTE:

Kamrun...why do you not deserve a vote for blocking the only thing keeping the cop alive?

[Ghostlin]

MoI: Night 1 is Camn (done by Con), Night 2 was Kamrun. I can declare N3 if you like, but it was successful.

Issues at this moment (from the Neighborhood, personal notes):

-One of Alice/Jason are lying probably about their alignment. I'm leaning towards Jason.
-Yoshi has confirmed NS, hf aren't serial killers. (Thor Night 3)
-Kamrun did jailkeep red. Was red protecting z?
-Still only one kill last night--was it a failed SK kill or is Yoshi lying?
-Odds of one of the following is still lying about their status: Thor, hf, NS, Snake, DV.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoI: Night 1 is Camn (done by Con), Night 2 was Kamrun. I can declare N3 if you like, but it was successful.

Ok, thanks. I just wanted confirmation going forward.

Yes, I really want more than "Looking at logs" for the reason why redFF of all people was Jailed.

And to prod along the pokey little puppy of the thread -

VOTE: Jason

[Ghostlin]

fYI: The neighborhood is full; I can't recruit unless either Kamrun or the person I recruited last night dies.

[Ghostlin]

Also, DY, would you be agreeable to investigate Red tomorrow night?

[DeasVail]

The question is: Why did scum kill muffin, considering likelihood (from their PoV) of him being watched/protected?

I'll most likely vote jason as soon as he posts.

[redFF]

I'd like to see some justification for the block..

[MagnaofIllusion]

The question is: Why did scum kill muffin, considering likelihood (from their PoV) of him

being watched

/protected?

I'll most likely vote jason

as soon as he posts.

Let's play a game ... it's called "What is completely wrong with the bolded?"

You can get free internet cookies if you can provide the correct (and rather obv) answer.

[redFF]

@Mod and players

I will be semi V/LA until monday the 26th, I'll still be around, but not as frequently as I usually am.

[DarthYoshi]

Also, DY, would you be agreeable to investigate Red tomorrow night?

Yes.

Also, V/LA for the weekend.

I'll be back Sunday evening or Monday.

[havingfitz]

OK...since the game is dragging I'm going to give a data dump on where I'm at with this game. Thoughts...questions...assumptions...whatever. No particular order...just a bit of rambling.

So we've lost all out data. That sucks...and IMO is a big boost to our anti-town elements (I say elements because I am of the opinion there are more than one; mafia team and sk). Has anyone been able to provide any cached pages for the mod or other players to have access to? Has everyone looked? I looked and there was nothing on my computers. I do have a spreadsheet with all the voting history from the start of the game if that would help anyone.

I have a crap memory (at least IMO). For the most part I remember those who I had suspicions towards but I do not recall most of the details (if any) of why I suspect certain players.

Fact: Ghostlin is a confirmed neighborizer and is therefore (IMO) town. I have never played in a game where the person doing the neighborizing was scum, therefore...for me...Ghostlin is town. Unless Ghostlin and his selected neighbor are all scum working together on a master gambit which I doubt is the case.

Assumptions: No one still alive is confirmed town.

I assume there is an SK. Iirc I assumed there was an SK even before DarthYoshi claimed FBI investigator but I can't recall why I assumed it. I know I was leaning town on DY before he claimed so therefore I am inclined to believe his claim. IMO his claim supports the existence of an SK, though the continued lack of a 2nd NK 3 nights in a row is causing me to rethink my SK assumption a bit. Verdict...I think DY is town but he could be scum. If he is scum, I think he is the sk.

One of Alice and Jason are probably lying. I do not think there is a tracker AND a watcher. That combined with the fact they have both at one time or another raised my suspicions. Of the two of them I am probably leaning towards Jason as being the fakeclaimer based on the fact he (iirc) claimed way early when he didn't need to. Though as I type this...if I recall...Alice claimed when she didn't have to at all. But Alice's circumstances were more believable so I go back to leaning towards hers being legit vs jasons. If they are both telling the truth I will be at a loss for words. I know we are still waiting to hear Jason's 2nd visitor from N1. How his D4 starts will probably determine whether I vote him or not.

Misc: Kamrun is someone I suspect. Especially given his block on the claimed bodyguard last night. His claim of jailkeeper would be a convenient claim for a roleblocker to make and the fact he was neighbored by Ghostlin means nothing.

reFF is someone I suspect. I seem to recall that his play yesterday was very questionable and odd. Given the fact he was JK'd last night (apparently) and that there was once again, only one NK, he could be the SK as well.

MOI....I started off suspecting him but his play has reverted to what I am use to seeing from him....and as I have only ever played with him when he was town...that leads me to think he is town. He claimed Doc as well, but that claim doesn't clear him IMO, his current play does.

Deasvail...I have suspected him the entire game and continue to.

SnakePlissken and Nobody Special are two players that have been quite and have gotten some suspicion their way. Snake's play seems to match the meta I have for him in my mind when he is town and I have leaned town on him most of the game. NS....perhaps a little less of a town read than Snake but I still come into D4 seeming to recall I had a town read on him.

Thor (aka Jon_h61) is someone I have been null towards this game. I'm probably leaning more town than scum with him and any move towards suspicion (at least if it was still Thor) would be based on PoE.

People I suspect to a degree enough that I would support a D4 wagon on them: Deasvail Kamrun (I think one or both of Kamrun and redFF could be scum...redFF gets a D4 pass IMO given he was JK'd). Probably Jason. I do not like the thought of lynching our confirmed watcher if he is telling the truth about being town. His flip however would seal how I view Alice. redFF

People I'm not inclined to vote ATT:

redFF

Alice DarthYoshi Snake and NS MOI Jon_h61

People who won't be getting my vote: Ghostlin Me

Does anyone recall what IAI's going away letter said to the presumed other anti-town entity? That could help explain last night's results....and could actually point suspicions back towards redFF. ????? I'm moving redFF from my no vote ATT category back into my I would support wagon category. I think at a minimum there is a one or the other situation with respect to Kamrun and redFF.

Jason...what have your results been each night?

[Zachrulez]

1st vote count of day 4:

JasonT1981 - 3 (DarthYoshi, Alicewondering, MagnaofIllusion)
redff - 1 (Jon_h61)

Not Voting: (JasonT1981, havingfitz, Kamrun, Ghostlin, Snakeplissken, DeasVail, Nobody Special, redFF)

With 12 alive it's 7 to lynch.

Day 4 will end no later than Wednesday, April 4th at 2pm CST.

[Kamrun]

Alright, I went into a really big amount of detail in the skype convo so I remember what ended up happening.

1. My top choices for blocking were Snake, Deas, Fitz, and RedFF. Jason's near obvious scum so there's no way they're going to have him make a kill at this point.
2. I'm having a hard time believing that both MoI and RedFF's roles are both in the game.
3. MoI was vehemently against the Palisade wagon, while RedFF coasted on it. 4 flips have happened since that lynch.
4. Both heads agree that RedFF and Jason are major scumreads, and RedFF is more likely to send in a kill.

VOTE: JasonT1981

[Kamrun]

-Ank

Sorry.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Fact: Ghostlin is a confirmed neighborizer and is therefore (IMO) town. I have never played in a game where the person doing the neighborizing was scum, therefore...for me...Ghostlin is town. Unless Ghostlin and his selected neighbor are all scum working together on a master gambit which I doubt is the case.

Terrible terrible logic right here. Off the top of my head as to Scum Neighborizors –

iPod Mafia
JasonT’s first TV Mafia (actually had both a Town and Scum Neighborizor)
Mina’s really already over Large Normal that got wiped by the Great Crash.
Storm of Swords Mafia

All these games have happened in the last year or so with scum neighborizors. There are probably tons others I’m not directly thinking of. So your limited personal experience is a poor reason to call Ghostlin Town.

SnakePlissken and Nobody Special are two players that have been quite and have gotten some suspicion their way. Snake's play seems to match the meta I have for him in my mind when he is town and I have leaned town on him most of the game. NS....perhaps a little less of a town read than Snake but I still come into D4 seeming to recall I had a town read on him.

So did you research Snake and NS scum meta to support these stance perchance?

[DeasVail]

MoI: I don't get the problem, unless you're saying Jason's town.

[Ghostlin]

Alright, I went into a really big amount of detail in the skype convo so I remember what ended up happening.

1. My top choices for blocking were Snake, Deas, Fitz, and RedFF. Jason's near obvious scum so there's no way they're going to have him make a kill at this point.
2. I'm having a hard time believing that both MoI and RedFF's roles are both in the game.
3. MoI was vehemently against the Palisade wagon, while RedFF coasted on it. 4 flips have happened since that lynch.
4. Both heads agree that RedFF and Jason are major scumreads, and RedFF is more likely to send in a kill.

VOTE: JasonT1981

Agree with this reasoning. No, Kam still checks out to town in my way of thinking. Still want DY to investigate Red tomorrow night.

[Ghostlin]

Misc: Kamrun is someone I suspect. Especially given his block on the claimed bodyguard last night. His claim of jailkeeper would be a convenient claim for a roleblocker to make and the fact he was neighbored by Ghostlin means nothing.

Do you believe Kamrun's a roleblocker, because if you do, your logic somewhat falls apart here unless we're in a muitiball.

[havingfitz]

@ MOI....IMO people base their opinion on personal experience. My personal experience is that scum aren't neighborizors. Could there be cases where they are? Sure. But I'm content to consider Ghostlin town for the time being.

As for Smake and NS...I don't do meta other than what my recollections of a player are. Kind of like how I'm inclined to consider you town ATM....based on my previous experiences playing with you as town.

@Ghostlin...on the one hand, Kamrun's logic is reasonable...but WTF would you keep the one player that was set to protect the cop? That doesn't make sense. If Kam hadn't kept red he [red] would either be dead or he would be a slam dunk for a lynching (unless of course you kept one of the killing factions...assuming there are two).

Speaking of that...what are people's thoughts on there being an SK? We've only had one kill each night but that could be explained/hypothesized for each case. We have an FBI agent which supports having an SK...if the FBI agent is telling the truth. If DY is in fact FBI....then knowing red was kept last night points a big incriminating finger at him [red].

Also Ghostlin...what are you talking about re: multiball? Which I have never played BTW. My point is what it is....a player claiming to be the town jailkeeper could just as easily be a scum roleblocker. So I do not see him as confirmed clear. If redFF is mafia then I would be more inclined to believe Kamrun.

How is my logic falling apart? Happy to be shown the error of my ways and move on to other suspects.

[Alicewondering]

Wait %u2026 you chose to track the person Muffin was supposed to confirm as Vanilla last night? Please explain your thought process there.

I actually didn't remember that Muffin was supposed to confirm Thor as Vanilla XP. If I did, I would have chosen someone else.

-Still only one kill last night--was it a failed SK kill or is Yoshi lying?

I actually looked back at the flavor of the kills. What do you (or everyone else who hasn't chimed in on this) think about the two different kill flavors?

Good catch, MOI.

I know we are still waiting to hear Jason's 2nd visitor from N1.

This. I forgot about this. Jason SHOULD claim his visitor from N1. There is no reason not to after a mass claim. Just his reluctance to claim it is rather telling though.

Does anyone recall what IAI's going away letter said to the presumed other anti-town entity?

I assumed it was actually meant to mislead town rather than anything else.

Kamrun, what do you think about redFF SK?

[Alicewondering]

Regarding a potential multiball situation, here are my hypotheses for what happened in some nights:

I hypothesize that "murder" is the SK flavor, while "shot dead" is the mafia flavor. That could make sense, I suppose.

camn Vanilla Townie murdered night 1: Somehow, mafia kill was blocked, whether it be through a jailkeep or a doctor.

Kamrun, MOI

, who did you target N1?
Baseline Vanilla Townie shot dead night 2: Baseline was uber town, so he seems like a good mafia target. Being tracker, I could very well be a threat to the SK, so it is possible that SK tried to kill me, but failed because of MOI's protection that night.
ZmuffinMan (Vanilla Cop) shot dead night 3. If Red = SK, and he was JKed, then that means his kill wouldn't have gone through. Muffin was an obvious scum-target.

[jon_h61]

I guess I need to post something, I'm still just a vote waiting to find a lead that I'll follow. This is a very slow moving game right now, but I'm guessing it is because everyone is still trying to piece together what happened pre-crash.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be LA from 1pm EDT today until Monday morning for my usual weekend family duties.

--

I actually didn't remember that Muffin was supposed to confirm Thor as Vanilla XP. If I did, I would have chosen someone else.

Tell me then – when did you send in your Night action choice? Was it pre or post-Great Crash?

I actually looked back at the flavor of the kills. What do you (or everyone else who hasn't chimed in on this) think about the two different kill flavors?

Could be meaningful if Normal games are forbidden from having individual kill flavors for Mafia team members, in that it says we have two discrete sources of kills (aka a Serial Killer). If there is not a direct prohibition to this it is not useful at all to determine whether a Serial Killer.

Kamrun, MOI, who did you target N1?

I targeted Deas Night 1 and if memory serves Kamrun targeted IAI both N1 and N2.

--

MoI: I don't get the problem, unless you're saying Jason's town.

That post reads to me as “Faked Town Concern”. I’ll explain for the non-scum in the audience –

Here again is what you originally posted –

The question is: Why did scum kill muffin, considering likelihood (from their PoV) of him being watched/protected?

I'll most likely vote jason as soon as he posts.

The first sentence in itself is basically fluff - you want to look like you are putting in 'Town effort' but there is nothing to be gained. It questions why the Cop with the proven ability to catch ANY scum (he was able to successfully catch a Mafia Goon so no Mafia was off limits and I suspect a Serial Killer would also be found in this manner) was killed at Night. So the reason he was killed is pretty clear - muffin was a threat to whatever remaining anti-Town factions we have. But additionally it provides the reason why said kill didn’t make sense is that scum would fear killing him with the “likelihood that he was being watched/protected”. The only reason the watched would make any sense from your perspective to be in that sentence is if

YOU

thought Jason was a Town Watcher. It seems pretty unlikely that the Mafia would fear being watched by their own member

Then you follow it up with an immediate “I’m voting for Jason as soon as he posts”. Clearly this says you think he is scum who needs to die and are only waiting (another ‘Look at me I’m totes Pro-Town’ fluff) until he gives whatever information that has been requested of him.

So back to back you’ve posted statements that logically come from conflicting points of view. Which is a pretty clear sign that your posting is artificial and calculated as opposed to being from a pure Townie perspective.

--

@ MOI....IMO people base their opinion on personal experience. My personal experience is that scum aren't neighborizors. Could there be cases where they are? Sure. But I'm content to consider Ghostlin town for the time being.

As for Smake and NS...I don't do meta other than what my recollections of a player are. Kind of like how I'm inclined to consider you town ATM....based on my previous experiences playing with you as town.

The bolded, in regards to my point, isn’t valid at all. Your ‘personal experience’ of never seeing a Scum Neighborizor and using it as the sole reason why you are calling Ghostlin Town reads to me as scum stretching to give Town reads (since they already know who isn't Mafia). I’ve given you 4 direct examples of games where Scum Neighborizors exist. Your response here is basically “Well I’ve never seen one so I’m just going to assume Ghostlin is Town.”

In regards to Snake and NS I feel the same way – you are giving Town reads based on half-assed meta (“I’ve only seen them as Town”) without any desire to see whether they play similarly as scum.

Both are completely lazy methods of read justification and say to me that you are fabricating your reads.

[havingfitz]

@MOI...kiss my arse. You find scum your way and I will find scum mine. Since you are such a big fan of not relying on personal experience feel free to meta me to your heart's content...you'll find I'm pretty consistent with not using meta. It's not lazy...it's I've got better things to do with my time. Kind of like your weekend thing.

Fabricating town reads

....that's hilarious. I'm saying based on my personal experience my reads are what they are. If Ghostlin turns out to be scum my opinion in future games will be adjusted accordingly.

I am on the road in a few minutes until tomorrow night so I'm from this point on on a

mini-v/LA

.