Mini 599: Rwandan Genocide - Game Over

[armlx]

Sorry Jathan, your set up is broken beyond belief.

No lynch 2x then mass claim of citizen/not citizen. Both nights troops are rallied and 2 Tutsi are revealed. Mass claim leaves us with 2 unfound Tutsi, based on numbers we proceed from there.

but what about if one of the leaders is killed?
also, doesn't the Tutsi Leader have a 1 shot disruption (IE will be able to stop a Tutsi from being revealed to a Hutu)?

This is why we claim AFTER 2 nights of rallying. The Leader is shooting in the dark.

but so are the ralliers

No, the ralliers know the other one will rally each night, and their ability doesn't target. It simply reveals a name of a scum to a random townsperson.

[roffman]

just wondering, do u think it is possible for the same tutsi to be revealed twice?

[armlx]

Meh, we could reveal the result tomorrow and lynch them to be sure it doesn't.

[dahill1]

No, the ralliers know the other one will rally each night, and their ability doesn't target. It simply reveals a name of a scum to a random townsperson.

i thought they could only rally twice in the game..
i just reread the roles, and it seems to me that the ralliers don't know each other.

[armlx]

Right. They both rally tomorrow after a NL, then both rally the next night after a NL or lynch of the revealed Tutsi, then we mass claim. We assure both investigations on top of the claim.

[dahill1]

Right. They both rally tomorrow after a NL, then both rally the next night after a NL or lynch of the revealed Tutsi, then we mass claim. We assure both investigations on top of the claim.

ok, but you realize we will probably only get one reveal after this. the Tutsi leader will use his ability one of the nights.

[roffman]

i think the current plan is no lynch today, 2 ralliers rally. tommorow person reveals. tutsi will counter reveal, lynch one, general kill the other, rally again, 2 more ppl die, everyone claims, we are left with potentially 8/7 alive depending on whether scum utilises kill, 2 scum left alive, after that it should be more or less easy, especially if no scum claim town power roles, just need to slaughter everyone who claimed vanilla townie. all agreed,

vote no lynch

[roffman]

Right. They both rally tomorrow after a NL, then both rally the next night after a NL or lynch of the revealed Tutsi, then we mass claim. We assure both investigations on top of the claim.

ok, but you realize we will probably only get one reveal after this. the Tutsi leader will use his ability one of the nights.

even if tutsi uses ability, it is only a 20% chance of it hitting the ralliers, and if it does and only one person claims, then either tutsi is being silent or throwing red herrings, either way we kill both the claimer and the target

[armlx]

The leader only chooses 1 person to RB, so if they choose not a leader or the receiver (2/3 chance) its all good.

[dahill1]

The leader only chooses 1 person to RB, so if they choose not a leader or the receiver (2/3 chance) its all good.

ooh i understand now. i didn't realize that the GF (aka tutsi leader) chose only 1 specific target to RB. i had just assumed he RB's all actions.
now that i think about it, that was kind of stupid on my part

[armlx]

Yeah, I read it like that the first time, but on the second read through to break the set up I saw it wasn't.

[roffman]

absolute worst case scenario after this is 1 tutsi dead, 1 general dead, 1 other townie dead, and 9 alive. given that we still have 3 lynches to hit a tutsi before we lose.

[armlx]

No, worst case is a little bit worse then that, but still good.

[roffman]

oh, and unless we kill the leader, only 2 tutsi will know who eachother are

[roffman]

No, worst case is a little bit worse then that, but still good.

what's the worst case then?

[armlx]

No, worst case is a little bit worse then that, but still good.

what's the worst case then?

Actually, I just realized its the same as what you said. 1 dead rally role, 1 investigated Tutsi, 1 RB left on the Tutsi leader, 9 others.

[roffman]

no, i think mine is worse. once the rallies are used, those roles are useless. however, if the general is still alive, we can just no lynch and let him kill people, guaranteed that we lowering the chances of hitting town.

[armlx]

General is a 1 shot kill. Rather have a 1 shot cop then a 1 shot vig.

[roffman]

oh yeah, misread it. thought it meant once the game actually started, not one shot. either way, i'd still like the general alive at that point over a rallier

[armlx]

oh yeah, misread it. thought it meant once the game actually started, not one shot. either way, i'd still like the general alive at that point over a rallier

Point is if one rallier dies tonight I'm not sure the other works the following. So if the Leader tries to kill tonight and hits a rallier we lose a cop result the next night and a townie, as opposed to a future vig kill and a townie. Cop shot > vig shot in a nightless game, and usually over all.

[roffman]

true. however, it is a moot point atm, and i think we should wait a bit and let everyone have their 2 cents and then vote no lynch. Personally, i think the game is pretty much cracked, as 6 townies Vs 3 scum in a nightless game isn't the most difficult proposition.

[armlx]

1/4th scum in nightless is even odds. The point is for it to end up 8/2/1 which is in town's favor.

[SleepyPanda]

I'm not sure how I feel about not lynching 2x. When the two leaders rally, a Tutsi will be revealed to a random Hutu, that means just one person will know who the Tutsi is, with no one to back up his claims? This seems like it'll still leave a lot of confusion.

So 4 people NEED to survive until day 3; the two rally leaders, and the two Hutus that have Tutsi revealed to them. Aren't the chances of Tutsi hitting one of the 4 mentioned the same odds we have of lynching a Tutsi currently?

What about the Tutsi leader, if he dies, that means they can't nightkill anymore, right? If so, isn't it extremely beneficial to town to lynch Tutsi as soon as possible?

[chaotic_diablo]

Wait, so the Tutsi Leader is a one-shot vig and one-shot RB.

The Hutu leader's can investigate and reveal a Tutsi role to a random Hutu, as in back to the Leader themselves?

The Tutsi Leader can NK and RB another Tutsi?

Am I getting this right?

[TDC]

So 4 people NEED to survive until day 3; the two rally leaders, and the two Hutus that have Tutsi revealed to them. Aren't the chances of Tutsi hitting one of the 4 mentioned the same odds we have of lynching a Tutsi currently?

What about the Tutsi leader, if he dies, that means they can't nightkill anymore, right? If so, isn't it extremely beneficial to town to lynch Tutsi as soon as possible?

Why should the first Hutu that has a Tutsi revealed to him wait for day 3 to claim?
The second sentence gives a good reason why he _should_ claim right away, doesn't it?