Iceman Modeth - Mini 688 (GAME OVER!!!)

[Xtoxm]

Well, that's proveable...

Unvote Vote BG

[Juls]

Hmmmm....I can see an endless circle here. Let's pretend for a minute you are a vigilante. It is my guess that mafia have a roleblocker being that we now have masons and a vigilante (assuming Xtoxm, RBT, and OP aren't lieing still). Then isn't the mafia just going to role block you?

And now if we pretend you aren't vigilante, aren't you just going to claim tomorrow that you tried to kill but was roleblocked. And we are stuck in an infinite circle of just "trusting" you.

I think if you are a vigilante it would have been smarter to just soft claim a power role. I am not convinced yet.

[bionicchop2]

If he would have claimed doctor I would have been more suspect since that is a more common scum claim. I haven't seen a vigilante fake claim yet, so for now I am going to buy it and

unvote

. Not sure why the claim at 4 votes, but meh. Quick claim seems to be the name of the game today.

Going back to my original

vote: pyro

. Will also look closer at BG before having a more critical look at the more active players.

VOTE COUNT:

G-Force - 2: curiouskarmadog, orangepenguin
PyroDwarf - 1: bionicchop2
Scheherezad - 1: Riceballtail
babygirl86 - 1: Xtoxm
orangepenguin - 3: G-Force, Juls, Erratus Apathos

Not voting: Rhinox, Scheherazade, PyroDwarf

7.

[G-Force]

Interesting...

I'm skeptical about the vig claim (I could, for example, see a SK claiming vig in this scenario), but I'm going to

Unvote

. If he's telling the truth, we don't want to lose him, and if he's lying scum, he's a much lower threat now that he's out in the open. Either way, he could prove useful to the town. @OP: Are you willing to kill by town consensus? If you are, it effectively gives us two lynches.

[Xtoxm]

No.

Bad G-Force.

Vig's should make their own choices.

[Scheherazade]

orangpenuin's claim relies on his ability to kill tonight. Now that he's claimed, isn't he essentially useless? No offence, orangepenguin, but you'll likely become the mafia blocker's favourite target, if there is one, and if there isn't, the mafia will just kill you, won't they? Either way, you'll be dead by the end of day two without having been able to use your ability night one.

The only scenario where you retain use is if the doctor protects you, or the threat of doctor's protection keeps the mafia from killing you, and there is no role blocker for the mafia.

Then why the rapid claim? Do you think you've done yourself or the town a great service?

@G-Force: That's an odd proposition. Won't that make the vigilante that much more vulnerable to manipulation by the mafia...? We get to lynch whom we suspect most and he gets to kill whom he suspects most. Is there something to it that I'm missing?

@bionicchop2: I'm not sure I understand your case against PyroDwarf. I notice that you said "Not sure what it all means right now." That's sort of how I feel looking at Pyro and at your case against him. Do you have any further thoughts? I didn't notice a reaction to Pyro's post, number 257.

[Xtoxm]

Mafia RB's are rare in Mini's. If he's a real vig, we should be ok...

[Scheherazade]

And if the mafia kills him? We lose a power role. The greatest good is that the mafia didn't try to kill any other power role we might have. Granted, with three claimed pro-town power roles, the mafia might not even be searching.

I don't know. I still feel that it's a blow for the town.

[Xtoxm]

If they kill him, they kill him. It's not that big a loss. It would stop us being worried he's a SK all game, too.

[G-Force]

@G-Force: That's an odd proposition. Won't that make the vigilante that much more vulnerable to manipulation by the mafia...? We get to lynch whom we suspect most and he gets to kill whom he suspects most. Is there something to it that I'm missing?

I figure that directing OP's kills is the best way to minimize our risks. If he really is a vig, then its a less than ideal setup, true, but he's still useful. If he is a SK fakeclaiming, and we give him free reign, he can kill anyone that's not confirmed and say "I thought he was scum."

[bionicchop2]

@bionicchop2: I'm not sure I understand your case against PyroDwarf. I notice that you said "Not sure what it all means right now." That's sort of how I feel looking at Pyro and at your case against him. Do you have any further thoughts? I didn't notice a reaction to Pyro's post, number 257.

He hasn't done any scum hunting.

[bionicchop2]

I figure that directing OP's kills is the best way to minimize our risks.

Directing his kill by a vote allows scum to have influence over his kill and also may talk him away from killing someone he suspects who might turn out to be scum. We would also have to find out if he was a 1-shot vig then decide if we want to use it now. By not directing him, we don't need to alert scum to if he has 1 shot or unlimited. Also, if scum has a blocker, they will likely let a shot go through if we vote for a town player to die, but block if scum is going to be shot. This could also get into WIFOM if they just block.

[orangepenguin]

orangpenuin's claim relies on his ability to kill tonight. Now that he's claimed, isn't he essentially useless? No offence, orangepenguin, but you'll likely become the mafia blocker's favourite target, if there is one, and if there isn't, the mafia will just kill you, won't they? Either way, you'll be dead by the end of day two without having been able to use your ability night one.

I only claimed today because my wagon was growing like mad, and I didn't want to be lynched. I have never been NK-ed in the (around) 15 games I have played so far, so maybe my luck will continue. The chances of mafia having a role blocker is low, so I am not too worried about that. I would imagine the doctor, if there is one, would protect me. After tomorrow, assuming I am not role blocked, will prove my claim. The mafia will try to kill me, but it would be smarter for them to kill someone who won't be protected anyways.


As for who I vig, I am going to base it on my own decisions, because, obviously, the mafia will try to influence who I kill. I was in another game, and the mafia pretty much directed the vig's choice, because the vig trusted them. But I will allow some town input, and I wouldn't kill an obviously pro-town alligned players (Xtoxm, for example). At this point, I don't know who to vig. As been mentioned, I haven't scum hunted, to a degree, so yeah, I need to ensure I make the right decision.

I expected some of you to be skeptical. I didn't want to claim today, and I am sure the Mason group didn't want to yet either. I hope none of the other power roles claim though, unless they absolutely have to (like if they were L-1) like I had to.

[Xtoxm]

Good post.

BG bandwagon, anyone?

[Scheherazade]

Grounds of not posting much, even since she got internet back?

[Xtoxm]

Since when do we needs grounds to bandwagon?

[Scheherazade]

@Xtoxm: I didn't know that you, too, love wagon.

@orangepenguin: Okay, your post makes sense, even if I don't agree with you entirely.

@Juls: Are you still voting to lynch someone who could be vigilante? Do you want to lynch him today?

[Juls]

No. I wanted to wait and see what the general consensus was by some of the more experienced players. All these claims are making my head spin. It sounds like people in general believe him or at least want to give him the benefit of the doubt for now so I will too for now

Unvote

. I don't really know who to put my vote on right now though.

[Xtoxm]

I've already told you, you don't have to think about it.

[PyroDwarf]

I'm not sure about OP's claim. Every one seems pretty willing to accept it. He was only at 4 votes. Why claim such a high profile role so quickly? He said his wagon was growing quickly, but several people hadn't even posted.
Does any one else think that scum may have been his wagon?

[orangepenguin]

4 can grow to 7 very quickly. I wasn't going to risk being lynched. Xtoxm had 4 or 5 votes on him when he claimed. Yes, I probably could've waited, but had I been lynched, it wouldn't be good for the town, so I'd rather risk putting my own neck out on the line for the night then the day. At least this way, we wouldn't mislynch a powerrole, and now have a shot at lynching actual scum. We have 3 confirmed, if you believe the mason claims, and my claim. We now have a 1/4 shot at finding scum, instead of a 1/6 had I not claimed. And going back to my first point, had the 4 on me been town, the scum could've jumped on the wagon and lynch me very quickly. My strategy day 1 was to lay low, as to not to draw attention to myself from the scum, so I wouldn't be nightkilled, but to still give my input, and to try to vig scum. Now that I am outed as a vig, I obviously can't lay low, cause the scum can see me. So I guess I'll just be more open about who I think is town and who is scum.

[Erratus Apathos]

Unvote

[Rhinox]

Wow. Busy weekend. sorry for not keeping up - the other games I played in, nobody posted on the weekend. I do have a couple comments...

First, the time is past for this, but I still do not like this suggestion...

Well, having an empty role slot isn't helping town any.

Look at it this way.

We will be killing a 0% contributer.

We have about a 1/4 chance of hitting scum, which is very good. We have a 1/2 chance of hitting a VT. It's meh, on Day One. We have about a 1/4 chance of hitting a pro-town power-role. Now, that's the bad option, but where's the fun if there's no downside? I like these odds.

Infact, the odds are even better when you consider 2 of about 3 or 4 total power roles are already removed by me and RBT's claim.

We learn absolutely nothing from a policy lynch on an inactive during D1, regardless of the role. Its suggestions like this that make me think you're lying about your claim...

Bio, welcome to the game. Regarding the little exchange between Gforce, orange, bio, and CKD, I find myself siding with Bio. Here's how I interpret the exchange: G-force attacked orange for making fluff posts with no content, and called him a lurker. Orange said how can I be lurking, I've makde just as many posts as you. Think of all players having a "pro-town meter". Gforce's argument comes from the idea that posting content fills your pro-town meter, while making lots of posts with no content does not. Orange's rebuttle stems from the idea that #of posts fills your pro-town meter, so since he and Gforce had made the same ammount of posts, that makes them equally pro-town (based on that criteria, that Gforce attacked him on). Bio simply stated he agreed with Gforces ideaology - that content >> # of posts, and CKD argued back that content =/= town.

My analysis is that bio was unfairly attacked and misrepresented by CKD. while it is true that content=/=town, what I think bio was trying to say is that content=protown, not content=not protown (proabably anti town), and that # of posts does not matter in anyway whatsoever. it is also true that protown=/=town just as not protown=/=scum - at least not as a rule. However, I feel that bio's criticism of orange's defense was a legitamite argument, and bio was unfairly attacked by CKD. I'm still working out what exactly this means...

========================================================================

Orange's claim as a vig so early seems suspect to me. Considering Sk's don't win often anyways (or so I've heard), why not try something crazy like claim vig on D1. it doesn't make sense for him to claim vig if he's just mafia, because he'd never be able to kill anyone to prove his role. Either way (sk or vig), the mafia will try to make killing orange a priority. If we do have a doc, the claim of xtorm and rbt gave the mafia better odds at finding him/her (unless, of course, xtorm and rbt are lying).

What I don't like is the cycle of early claiming that has begun. It makes me wonder what types of games you all have played that makes you all so worried about getting quick bandwagon lynched during D1. Although this is only my 3rd game, I have not seen anyone get lynched simply as a result of a bandwagon. I have always seen players been given the opportunity to defend against their accusations, and make claims

when appropriate

. I'm not buying into the paranoia of scum jumping on when a player gets to L-3 or L-2 to hurry up and lynch a town player. Its just not going to happen. For example, orange, didn't you yourself say this when babygirl expressed concerns about sche being at L-2??

because if you put someone at l-2, if scum arent already voting for the person, they could easily come along and place the final 2 votes.

True, but if they were to do that without good reason as to why the voted them, then they'd be easy to catch, making the mislynch very stupid and obvious on there part.

But now, when you're the one being bandwagoned:

4 can grow to 7 very quickly. I wasn't going to risk being lynched.

Xtoxm had 4 or 5 votes on him when he claimed. Yes, I probably could've waited, but had I been lynched, it wouldn't be good for the town, so I'd rather risk putting my own neck out on the line for the night then the day. At least this way, we wouldn't mislynch a powerrole, and now have a shot at lynching actual scum. We have 3 confirmed, if you believe the mason claims, and my claim. We now have a 1/4 shot at finding scum, instead of a 1/6 had I not claimed.

And going back to my first point, had the 4 on me been town, the scum could've jumped on the wagon and lynch me very quickly.

My strategy day 1 was to lay low, as to not to draw attention to myself from the scum, so I wouldn't be nightkilled, but to still give my input, and to try to vig scum. Now that I am outed as a vig, I obviously can't lay low, cause the scum can see me. So I guess I'll just be more open about who I think is town and who is scum.

note the parts in bold. Tell me how that is not EXACTLY the same thing you told babygirl would be "stupid and obvious on their part" for the scum to do. if this is not a glaring inconsistency, I don't know what is. Care to elaborate any before I vote you?

[bionicchop2]

Thumbs up for Rhino understanding the concept of what I was getting at (the meter thing is a bit of a stretch, but overall you have my point down).

I also agree with Rhino's point about the SK/Vig. Having it out in the open gives the town an advantage since we can monitor the kills and hold OP responsible if they are questionable intheir targets.

I disagree about the policy lynching on D1. If there is any time to policy lynch, it would be on day 1, but not until after other discussions have occurred. While a lynch of a lurker may not directly reveal new information (though you may catch scum), it does serve a purpose. If scum is in a game where someone lurking is lynched, they would be forced to remain active and post often enough to avoid the same results.

[G-Force]

No. I wanted to wait and see what the general consensus was by some of the more experienced players. All these claims are making my head spin. It sounds like people in general believe him or at least want to give him the benefit of the doubt for now so I will too for now

Unvote

. I don't really know who to put my vote on right now though.

Does anyone else find this post scummy? "I waited to see if the bandwagon was going to fall apart before deciding to jump off."

FOS: Juls

I'll do a re-read of her to see if I want to follow that up with a vote.