ASOIAF: Test of Faith Mafia (Game Over!)

[Hinduragi]

8 people. If there are 4 scum, then everyone except me and maybe one person is cult. Fucking lol. Screw this game.

[Hinduragi]

For the record, CR is one of Magua/Spyrex for anyone who would like to lynch me now. I'd be down for letting scum win after looking at those numbers. Someone I've been "sheeping" is obviously fucking cult and manipulating this.

Unvote

So, mafia, you guys want to win? I really don't give a fuck and the cult can suck a dick for all I care.

[Hinduragi]

It could be Nexus but I REALLY REALLY doubt it so he isn't a good shot. Hell, maybe even Espeonage. Hey Empking, if you want to live, better speak up.

[Empking]

Espeonage is cult leader. 100%.

[Nexus]

Cult Leader with kills? Really?

[Thor665]

@Nexus - you hopped on that one quick - nothing else was worth commenting on? Clearly you're reading along.

[Nexus]

My opinions on people haven't changed since the last time I posted. I don't think Espeonage is Cult Recruiter. It'd have been dumb of him to out himself as a SK if he was, imo.

[Hinduragi]

Espeonage is cult leader. 100%.

How do you know?

[Hinduragi]

I'm asking because you were clearly wrong about Benmage.

[Magua]

@SpyreX:

Nothing.

My dilemma is which of you, Hinduragi, outside-chance Espeonage is the recruiter.

Mechanics is telling me its Hinduragi.
Play is telling me its SpyreX.

[Hinduragi]

I really don't trust anyone except Empking right now, to be honest, so I'm not reading that much into other people's posts.

[Empking]

I'm asking because you were clearly wrong about Benmage.

1. He copied SpyreX with his claim but got it wrong.
2. A three-shot SK, really?

[Hinduragi]

So him lying means he has to be CR and not a recruit?

[Empking]

So him lying means he has to be CR and not a recruit?

Y

[Hinduragi]

....Why can't he be a recruit?

[Magua]

Given that Espeonage has been onsite and posting, I am content to wait for his answers on his role / why he shot LB.

[Empking]

....Why can't he be a recruit?

Becausde scum recruiting a three-shot vig is ridiculiously swingy.

[SpyreX]

Here's the one thing that gives me pause with Esp:

N1, one kill.
N2, one kill.
N3, one kill.
D4, one kill.
N4, one kill.
N5, two kills.

Even being generous and going "MAYBE BILBO DOUBLE BILBOD HIM" That doesn't explain N3 unless he can trade out a NK for a DK. Which could be a parallel to SaintK maybe but raises the question of why in the hell would you hamstring yourself with the "Only more kills if I kill cult guyz" (although in retrospect that did paint a pretty good "I'm not a NK choice") which is something.

Even moreso, if you had limited shots, why the christ would you waste one on LB at that point instead of lurkin 4 endgame.

So, if Esp is a SK like he says, limited shots doesn't make any sense. Its 'normal' or something else is going on.

So, lets look at the flipside: Esp as a cult recruiter. For this to work there'd have to be some form of "if you cult and fail get a NK" OR "if you cult and succeed you get a NK instead of a cult" AND "one Day-vig" (probably before lylo I'd hope).

The one thing I'm seriously throwing out because ooba-rage if it were true would be "if you cult and fail get a NK in addition to your recruit".

I'm leaving aside Esp-vig that got recruited because 1.) PR balance doesn't make sense at start with two vigs. 2.) That would put it 6/1 3.) Him being recruited and keeping his ability AND using it on LB means cult thought LB was scum (lols) and opted to not use it on me who from their standpoint is either scum or town and REGARDLESS a threat that needed to go.

Lets look at how that would have played out:

Cult fail get a NK + Dayvig:

N1, one kill. (no recruiting)
N2, one kill. (recruit attempt - successful AGM)
N3, one kill. (recruit attempt - successful Hindu/Magua/Thor (probably Thor))
D4, one kill. (Used Dayvig)
N4, one kill. (recruit attempt - failed Nightkill) (cult knows one scum)
N5, two kills.

Theoretically this fits but that still means cult got some serious juice.

Cult success means NK instead of cult + Dayvig:

N1, one kill. (no recruiting)
N2, one kill. (attempt failed)
N3, one kill. (attempt failed)
D4, one kill. (Used Dayvig)
N4, one kill (recruit successful)
N5, two kills.

This is fail because AGM WAS recruited. Unless it started out with 2. (I'll get to that).

So, there's the other side of this: the cult inability to recruit until N2. Every fiber of my being says that means there is some hijinks instead of your plain ol "cult recruits someone each night". I could see:

1.) Cult + minion
2.) Odd Night Culter + Even Night Culter
3.) X-shot culter usable whenever (vomit).

#1 makes the "NK if you're awesome" theory work with AGM being a start AND would mean only Esp + CR work. That seems like a nice thing though.
#2 could work in any scenario (NK if you're awesome see above) (NK if you suck see screwed because that means ESP cult recruiter + other Cult Recruiter + a recruit (Thor) AND it means Nexus is still -possible- CR.)
#3 I dont even know. It just means Thor and LLocke are not cult recruiters).

Now, if Esp IS SK #1 and #2 are there it just means the pool is even smaller.

I think I'm just talking around in circles now trying to parse this junk out and, ultimately, its moot.

The important thing is:

If Esp IS SK AND is telling the truth I think its a boner sandwich right now.
If Esp IS SK AND is lying about his shots there's a shot in the dark maybe:

Lynch Emp (scum -1)
2 scum going into night. 7 alive.

Esp kills Hindu
Scum kill Magua/Nexus

If one of those kills is CR AND the other isn't scum (I think all other scenarios are pretty much borked except for a perfect storm of bad cult):

1T / 1SK / 2S / 2Variable (Town/Cult)

We lynch scum (Locke probably) (scum -1)

1 scum going into night. 5 alive.

Esp kills remainder of Magua/Nexus
Scum kills Esp or Thor depending on being saucy.

3 alive:

Me / Scum / SK dancing party I pick the winner unless they do something REALLY stupid.
Me / Scum / Cult dancing party lynch scum cult draw.

....

God I do all that and I just had a revelation:

If Esp IS a SK AND is lying about his shots AND we hit the CR tomorrow and put that SpyreX is CR tomfoolery to rest then party time. End game is either a draw (if cult is good) possibly a town win (if cult is bad) OR prisoner dilemna.

At most there can be three cult today too (3 scum + me + esp is 5 unrec). So hot dogs.

The maiden will lead us to the promised land young bucks.

Of course if Esp is CR or is telling the truth pork chop sandwiches.

[Hinduragi]

Given that Espeonage has been onsite and posting, I am content to wait for his answers on his role / why he shot LB.

If I was actually an SK who claimed just a few pages ago, I'd be giving more to this game. When I out my role and alignment, I post more to contribute as much as I can. If I was third party self-aligned, I'd definitely be out here looking useful.

I will wait but his active lurking at this point isn't helping.

[Hinduragi]

Fuck it. I'm dying anyways. Might as well go out in the same reckless style I've played with.

Vote: Espeonage

[Locke Lamora]

If Esp is telling the truth, he's basically screwed unless events play out in a very specific fashion AND somebody decides to let him win, so doing nothing at all is not helping him a great deal. I felt like the claim was a bit too eager, but I can't think of another combination of events that makes more sense for the kills.

[Empking]

I just realized I wasn't voting Esp.

Vote: Esp

[Magua]

If I was actually an SK who claimed just a few pages ago, I'd be giving more to this game. When I out my role and alignment, I post more to contribute as much as I can. If I was third party self-aligned, I'd definitely be out here looking useful.

This.

Hey, Locke! You're going to get lynched tomorrow. Thoughts?

[Locke Lamora]

We're screwed.

[Magua]

Good enough for me!