Open 333 : Carbon-14 - Game ended

[Mist7676]

I got a Scum result on DonJosh.

Vote:DonJosh

[DonJosh]

I got a Scum result on DonJosh.

Vote:DonJosh

Um... what?

[saulres]

Mist, are you saying that as a seer you investigated DonJosh and got a scum result? Meaning this game has one werewolf and one mafia instead of two of one?

That -- doesn't make sense.

[saulres]

Just did quick ISOs of DonJosh and Cobbler, looking for their reads on Mist and Xalxe. References to Mist are pretty identical, so that's clearly a take on her playstyle and not her scumminess (since we know she's town).

References to Xalxe are quite different. DonJosh tends to be more "Xalxe is town town town" while Cobbler's more "Xalxe is scum scum scummier". So we've either got DonJosh as scum trying to say his partner looks good, while townie Cobbler's reading him well, or we've got townie DonJosh reading him poorly and scum Cobbler distancing.

I suggest Mist read through their ISOs and do what I'm going to do next time I can go through them more carefully, which is look at their reads on Whiskers and kondi (and me, but Mist still needs to consider that I might be scum so she can't use me the same way I'm doing). If DonJosh is off most of the time then he's just bad at giving reads and it's not a tell, but if he's solid on almost everyone else and just weak on Xalxe, that's a sold scumtell in my book.

If Cobbler's reads are mostly very accurate, that's a problem, because scum know exactly what everyone is so it'd be a bunch of WIFOM. So I'm hoping to get something solid from analyzing DonJosh.

[Mist7676]

Ok. UNVOTE:

I was checking to see if saulres jumps on the lynch.

[Cobblerfone]

If we pursue a lynch today, we have a 25% chance of catching scum and winning, and a 75% chance of losing the game altogether.
If we No Lynch today, we have a 33% chance of winning and only a 66% chance of losing, plus we can do more analysis based on the NK.
A No Lynch is the only logical thing to do.

Not with the confirmed Seer. It's exactly the same, except Mist is a safety valve of sorts. How convenient of you to not realize that.

I've got to learn to reread during the night. Expect something tomorrow.

[DonJosh]

If we pursue a lynch today, we have a 25% chance of catching scum and winning, and a 75% chance of losing the game altogether.
If we No Lynch today, we have a 33% chance of winning and only a 66% chance of losing, plus we can do more analysis based on the NK.
A No Lynch is the only logical thing to do.

Not with the confirmed Seer. It's exactly the same, except Mist is a safety valve of sorts. How convenient of you to not realize that.

I've got to learn to reread during the night. Expect something tomorrow.

Right. Forgot about the seer.
That makes it 33% win today, and a whole 50% tomorrow.

[DonJosh]

Disregard my last post. Mist is dead tonight, so it's still 33% tomorrow.

[DonJosh]

Derp. So we should lynch today. God I feel like an idiot.
UNVOTE:

[Cobblerfone]

UNVOTE: Mist7676
VOTE: No Lynch

I suggest Mist for investigation.

Xalxe sounds good I guess.

Still would prefer Mist, though

I'm finding Xalxe's sudden disappearance scummy beyond [earth].

Actually, scratch that. Since a potential advantage is clearing someone, I want one of the more active players investigated.

And Whiskers going along with this plan, an enhancing it, makes me think he's town.

Let's investigate Xalxe.

I had my doubts about Saulres after yesterday, but I'm glad I ISO'd them. DonJosh is scum. It isn't until he's set to be investigated that he decides Xalxe is extremely scummy. While Saulres was actually the one to suggest Xalxe be investigated. This is good enough for me:

VOTE: DonJosh

[Cobblerfone]

Wait no, I think it was Mist.

Still, Don looks worse.

[saulres]

I'm going to think on this, because I don't want a mislynch today. We can nolynch and go through this whole exercise tomorrow, just one player down.

I do lean towards DonJosh being scum, as I've said before, but I want to feel more solid before voting, which I may still do today.

As to the numbers above, here are the accurate ones. "Guessing" refers to "consulting a random number generator with no regard for what was posted."

If we lynch today, we win or lose, period. The 2 non-Mist townies have a 50% chance of guessing right, Mist has a 33% chance.

If we don't lynch today, there are 2 possibilities.

1) Mist is NKed. That gives both townies a 50% chance of guessing right.
2) Someone other than Mist is NKed. That give Mist, and only Mist, a 50% chance of guessing right (because the other townie will know who the scum is, and the scum and the other townie will immediately vote for each other).
(There's actually a third option, no one is night killed and we repeat today, but then we're faced with the same situation as the current one until something changes.)

Those odds suggest we go for a no lynch to remove the 33% chance tomorrow, at the risk of potentially putting the entire game into Mist's hands, depending on who's NKed. So that's something else we need to decide on. I'd actually like to hear if Mist is willing to have the entire game put into her hands, because if she's not, we should just lynch today.

[saulres]

DonJosh, do you have a case against Cobbler?

And Cobbler,

Wait no, I think it was Mist.

What do you think was Mist? I don't follow.

[saulres]

Thought I might look through Xalxe's posts looking for clues as to who his partner is and came up with this doozy (bold mine):

Oh no, I've been caught. Whatever shall I do.

(Yes, scum)

Completely un-fucking-necessary and he's trying to hide away a minor scumslip (which I would have ignored, it's usually the mafia, in most games) by mocking us and making bad jokes.

He admitted to being scum earlier, when I voted him and didn't give a reason. Again, completely unnecessary, just trying to make me feel bad or something because I shouldn't vote him.

You keep pushing Mist. Mist hasn't been scummy, only inactive. DonJosh has been far worse. You have a town-read on him, which is fucking broken.

Explain it to me then. Show, don't just tell.

DonJosh is scum? PROVE IT. I have yet to see it. SHOW ME conclusive evidence and we'll talk.

But for now, I'm okay with where my vote is, thought if you want me to move it, I might consider it.

And yes, I AM trying to make you feel bad. You should be ashamed for attempting to kill a townie like me.

[Mist7676]

Do not under any circumstances leave the entire game in my hands. I may be good at guessing the Final 3 but I'm not always 100% sure.

I'm very bad at playing so don't leave it with me.

I also think it's DonJosh and since I don't want the game in my hands tommrow.

Vote:DonJosh

[saulres]

Thanks for that Mist.

So this is where we stand. We're going to lynch today so the scum can't put the whole game in Mist's hands. We have DonJosh at L-1 and me leaning towards thinking it's him.

I'm going to do more research because I still don't want to mislynch and lose, and I might be able to find something against Cobbler, or something to exonerate DonJosh. To that end, I'd still like to see if DonJosh can put together a case against Cobbler, or can provide a reasonable defense.

DonJosh? If you're town, now's the time to prove it!

[Cobblerfone]

In post 360, Cobblerfone wrote:
Wait no, I think it was Mist.

What do you think was Mist? I don't follow.

I think it was Mist that suggested Xalxe to be investigated instead of you, but you were more willing than DonJosh anyway.

[saulres]

Here's a good one too, convincing me more to vote for DonJosh over Cobblerfone, from a confirmed townie who's played an excellent game here.

Yeah. I'm not even fighting against your questions. My point here is that Xalxe or DonJosh are all cuddly together, saying that the other is so awesome, both reading Cobblerfone as Neutral/Null, for instance, when in fact Cobblerfone has been more useful to the town than either one of them.

I've done enough research on my own at this point that I'm willing to hammer DonJosh. However, in the interest of giving town the best possible chance, I want to see DonJosh's defense and his arguments, if any, why Cobbler's really the scum.

Gonna stop doing my own research at this point until I hear back from him.

[Cobblerfone]

I'm just noting that Saulres is confirmed town and DonJosh is confirmed scum.

[saulres]

How do you figure?

I understand why you think I'm confirmed town. But I missed where DonJosh was confirmed scum.

[Cobblerfone]

You and Mist are confirmed town. I'm town, DonJosh is scum.

[saulres]

LOL.

Okay, now look at it from

my

POV, and from

Mist's

POV. What confirms you as town?

[Cobblerfone]

From your POV, nothing.

But I was talking from what I know.

[Otolia]

1st votecount of Day 3 :

DonJosh (2) - Cobblerfone, Mist7676

Not Voting (2) : saulres, DonJosh

[DonJosh]

I'm just noting that Saulres is confirmed town and DonJosh is confirmed scum.

How is saulres confirmed town? He's my top scumspect, actually.