Open 120 - Rebels in the Palace - Game Over! before 756


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Post Post #362 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2009 4:44 pm

Post by sekinj »

Vote Count 11

(# of votes against) Voted Player - by Voter(s)

(2) TonyMontana - by Corvuus, Qanqan

(0) Corvuus
(1) Empking - by hohum
(1) Numberfourteen - by Empking
(0) ortolan
(1) Qanqan - by ortolan
(0) Trumpet of Doom
(1) zwetschenwasser - by Trumpet of Doom

Five (5) votes to Lynch.


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Post Post #363 (ISO) » Sun Mar 15, 2009 9:20 pm

Post by zwetschenwasser »

Do we need any more number crunching in this game?
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Post Post #364 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 12:35 am

Post by ortolan »

Qanqan (354) wrote:To get another random lynch like Empking did. Maybe there is a reason why in Empkings random lynch, everyone jumped to get lynching, but for Tony's, no one wants to go ahead and lynch (which would possibly suggest that the king is one of the first few to be lynched in his roll (Corv, Trumpet, TM)).
Tony's rolls weren't for random lynching and he never said they were. They were to determine who the king was. Again, it only really makes sense as satire.
Qanqan (354) wrote:I'm starting to get a little suspicios of you, ortolan, to be honest. Quite a lot of these arguments you have given are riddled with logical fallicies, and whenever you get a hole in your argument, you ignore it and attack in another angle in the hopes I wouldn't notice. They all sound a bit like scumtactics to me. And, considering I'm relatively new to mafia (on this forum, at least), you would have probably guessed I wouldn't have the knoledge and experience to pick up on them, thus making me an easy target. So,
Fos: ortolan
(No, this isn't omgus)
You need to be specific here. Rather than just saying "I do believe you are spouting logical fallacies holes in your arguments" and "I assure you, this isn't OMGUS" you need to provide some justification as to why these statements are true.

Corvuus, what do you think of Qanqan's behaviour?
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Post Post #365 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 12:36 am

Post by ortolan »

sorry, "I do believe you are spouting logical fallacies
and have
holes in your arguments".
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Post Post #366 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 4:56 am

Post by Corvuus »

sorry, lots of stuff came up.

re-reading and post in a bit.

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Post Post #367 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 5:08 am

Post by Empking »

I think Hohum's vanishing act seems king-like to me.
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Post Post #368 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 5:46 am

Post by Corvuus »

orotolan:

I don't understand your play since you are

1. blatantly defending another player (TM)
2. Blatantly saying things which shouldn't be said unless you are advising scum.
3. apparently this is all based on your belief that scum couldn't have verified each other, and thus there is no buddying to worry about and you think the fact that you blatantly buddy must somehow mean that you are rebel and so is TM since guard/king wouldn't be so obvious??

i.e. you and TM's actions are suspicious, yet your 'defense' is that it is so BLATANT and 'stupid' for scum to do that it is not suspicious at all.

I couldn't careless if we lynch Zwet today, but I find it INCREDIBLY ironic that a defense for Zwet is as simple as "posting nonsense 1 liners, blah blah, joke, blah, crap" is so BLATANTLY scummy that he can't possible be scum since scum wouldn't do that.

and yet, the argument for TM and yourself Oro is pretty much exactly the same, yet it is ok when you and TM do it?

So explain to me why should I accept your version when it is possible that TM is king, you (oro) are guard; TM did something crazy/weird/scummy as King, you as guard have to help him so you 'blatantly' do so and rely on the fact that it is so 'blatant' scummy that you won't be lynched for it since it is 'too stupid for scum' to do.

In the end, the original 'reasons' for going after TM aren't that important and don't even have to be right. His response/reaction to it, is important and I will vote and pressure him more simply because of his post #11 (will post point on zwet later, go look at someone else and stop looking at me (paraphrased).

He could have been 'more townie' looking if he just posted his view of Zwet in isolation. Instead, he chose to make his 'random/satire/whatever' post, comment on it, get called on it, and THEN he goes after Zwet. Why attempt to scumhunt 'then' and not 'earlier' and if his point (which you say) was to clear someone (joke or not), it 'cleared' Zwet, yet he found Zwet the easiest target to go after to remove attention from himself?? Yet you find this all ironclad reason to believe that he is rebel to the point of defending him? If this was a 'normal game', would you still do this?

----------------

As for how scum could verify each other, yes, it could be through RVS, words, comments, etc. Guards all know who the king is so they can use that. It may create false positives and other problems for them internally but there are only 2 guards left and a King. The guards know the king, and through interaction without even 'key' words, they may know each other. For you to claim that guards have NO idea who each other are, I think is false since my biggest problem with right now is that scum appear to not be trying to check/find each other... implying that they have already found each other.

If I had a certain point or thing to look at, then we would have already lynched them. Of course, we may be scrutinizing the king right now, and the guards see each other's reactions. Either way, I think I am valid to assume so simply because I can see how people react when I do so.

------------------

Trumpet, I didn't read any of your other games. I read you this game only. Maybe it is my assumption but based on your words/personality, I think I have a read on you and that you are town. This may change, but as it is right 'now', I won't agree to your lynched, but neither will I defend you.

In terms of my scum/anti-town ranking; TM, Oro, (14/hohum inactive/replaced is somewhere in the middle here until I get a response from him) Zwet, Emp.

FoS Zwet
with you for more 'useful' posting/read from Zwet but I want more responses from TM/Oro.

Q, i'm neutral-leaning townie on but time will tell.

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Post Post #369 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 6:37 am

Post by sekinj »

Mod Notes: veerus replaces hohum

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Post Post #370 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 11:09 am

Post by zwetschenwasser »

Welcome, veerus. The only thing I don't like about Corvuus' last post is that by talking about different ways scum can talk it looks like he's giving a signal himself.
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Post Post #371 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 11:56 am

Post by Corvuus »

really?

I'm tempted to lynch you unless you can explain exactly what you mean Zwet.

First: What signal am I giving? or what are you reading/interpreting that you think i am giving a signal? Who am I giving it to? i.e. who do you think is scum, etc. more you say the better.
Second: 'different ways scum can talk'; what does this mean?
Third: It is an open setup so we all have the same information EXCEPT Guards have the name of the King written in. Guards can look at each other in whatever way they choose. It doesn't have to be something completely obvious nor does it mean guards 100% *know* each other or anything. They may merely suspect that they know who is a guard, may have false positives, or other problems in 'talking' to each other but I see no reason to assume that guards have NO IDEA at all who each other are. I doubt until a lynch and flip will they 100% know, but they could have a 75-80% certainty that this person should be a guard, based on words/interaction that they take meaning in, etc..

--------

To elaborate more:

Oro asked me to 'prove' that guards know each other. I could say "prove that they don't" or I could say that they already know or that they are right now testing/examining each other and doing it (what I think at least) in an incredibly stupid way.

I.e. All guards know who the King is. King acts scummy/anti-town. A guard (or more) will defend King. King is 'safe'/unlikely to be lynched if played 'right'. Guards see defense of King, all guards know who the king is. Chance of false positives since maybe rebels will defend the king 'by accident' and various other situations, but hey, there are ALOT of possibilities and variations that scum could try or have tried just to see if someone is a guard by response. I think it would be foolish to assume that they have no idea/clue at all.

I'll leave that possibility as it for now but I'm perfectly willing to pressure/bandwagon someone just to see what happens and threaten lynch if it gets me a response. There are no nightkills in this game, so unless a majority thinks i'm crazy/scum, etc. and I risk being lynched, there is no reason for me not to be blatantly belligerent in getting responses/reactions and I think it is my optimum move.

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Post Post #372 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 12:01 pm

Post by veerus »

Hi guys, I'll read through the thread tonight.
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
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Post Post #373 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 5:48 pm

Post by veerus »

I'm not really following Trumpet's numbers. But they work.. It's just like in poker. Our odds of hitting a guard/king in the next two random lynches are 1-((5/8)*(4/7)) = 65%. By the same math, odds of us hitting a guard/king in the first 4 lynches were 1 - ((8/12)*(7/11)*(6/10)*(5/9)) = 86%

I suppose 65% isn't that bad...

But if I was going by play.. I'd say that zwet and TonyMontana are the most likely guards/kings as they seem to be derailing the town the most (though in zwet's case, he's always pretty useless so I'd rather lynch TM first)
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
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Post Post #374 (ISO) » Mon Mar 16, 2009 11:52 pm

Post by ortolan »

Corvuus (368) wrote:1. blatantly defending another player (TM)
Well, I am pointing out that Qanqan is incorrect (either deliberately or apparently ignorantly) in suggesting that Tony's roll was to determine who to lynch. He said it was to find the king. It's a clear error of fact.
Corvuus (368) wrote:2. Blatantly saying things which shouldn't be said unless you are advising scum.
What are these?
Corvuus (368) wrote:3. apparently this is all based on your belief that scum couldn't have verified each other, and thus there is no buddying to worry about and you think the fact that you blatantly buddy must somehow mean that you are rebel and so is TM since guard/king wouldn't be so obvious??
I'm not saying scum haven't verified one another, ironically at this point I'm feeling increasingly strongly that the king knows who one of his guards (at least) is. That doesn't mean no-one else has picked up on it, though. What I object to is your position in 342 that "WELL YOU DONT' KNOW, they might have found some AMAZINGLY CLEVER way of cross-confirming each other while the townies are oblivious to it." Again I ask you to describe any way this could actually be done in practice e.g.; or in fact I will go you one better. Do you think random voting the king would be a good way to subtly telegraph your role as a guard? Do you think breadcrumbing something strange about the king would be a good way to subtly telegraph your role as a guard? If not how do you suggest, they are going to do so with no risk of being caught?
Corvuus (368) wrote:i.e. you and TM's actions are suspicious, yet your 'defense' is that it is so BLATANT and 'stupid' for scum to do that it is not suspicious at all.
How are
my
actions suspicious? We've already seen yourself and Qanqan's justification for TM's actions being suspicious. I think it's poor, but you don't need to go there again. Just tell me why
I'm
scummy.
Corvuus (368) wrote: I couldn't careless if we lynch Zwet today, but I find it INCREDIBLY ironic that a defense for Zwet is as simple as "posting nonsense 1 liners, blah blah, joke, blah, crap" is so BLATANTLY scummy that he can't possible be scum since scum wouldn't do that.

and yet, the argument for TM and yourself Oro is pretty much exactly the same, yet it is ok when you and TM do it?
I don't understand what you are arguing here. TonyMontana is attacking zwet. You are saying you find zwet scummy. Yet you find TM scummy also???? And someone in all of this is apparently defending zwet- it's not me though. Who are you talking about?
Corvuus (342) wrote:At this point, I consider it unlikely that you (ortolan) are guard trying to help them (odds, meta, etc.) but how do you think it will look for you if they DO flip guard?
Funny that you didn't express any problems with me doing this to you in 292 and 298.

Or Qanqan doing it in 307:
Qanqan (307) wrote:I am feeling some pro-town vibe from Corvuus, like everyone else is I'm guessing.
How would
we
look if you flipped guard? :) In fact, in your response post 305, you deliberately avoid placing any suspicion on us after we say how townie you're looking. Your targets are hohum, then zwet/Empking/TM. And your most townie is Trumpet of Doom. When questioned you give no good reason for why. Nevertheless you fail to mention two people who've just nominated you as their most townie. This is interesting.

Please tell me what you think of Qanqan also, you didn't answer this question in your last post.
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Post Post #375 (ISO) » Tue Mar 17, 2009 12:06 am

Post by TonyMontana »

veerus wrote:I'm not really following Trumpet's numbers. But they work.. It's just like in poker. Our odds of hitting a guard/king in the next two random lynches are 1-((5/8)*(4/7)) = 65%. By the same math, odds of us hitting a guard/king in the first 4 lynches were 1 - ((8/12)*(7/11)*(6/10)*(5/9)) = 86%
And given we barely pulled it through with 86% you wanna go ahead with the 65%, then?
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Post Post #376 (ISO) » Tue Mar 17, 2009 10:39 am

Post by zwetschenwasser »

Corvuus, it's just something that bothers me. It looks like you're directing the king/guard to act a certain way to defend your master, by your capitalizing of words and other verbiage. Tony, it doesn't help to criticize something we already did.
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Post Post #377 (ISO) » Tue Mar 17, 2009 1:11 pm

Post by veerus »

TonyMontana wrote:
veerus wrote:I'm not really following Trumpet's numbers. But they work.. It's just like in poker. Our odds of hitting a guard/king in the next two random lynches are 1-((5/8)*(4/7)) = 65%. By the same math, odds of us hitting a guard/king in the first 4 lynches were 1 - ((8/12)*(7/11)*(6/10)*(5/9)) = 86%
And given we barely pulled it through with 86% you wanna go ahead with the 65%, then?
Barely? 86% pretty much expected we'd get 1 guard. 65% is not quite the slam dunk, but since we started playing the numbers, it kind of makes sense to finish the same way. Odds are still on our side it seems.
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
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Post Post #378 (ISO) » Tue Mar 17, 2009 4:27 pm

Post by sekinj »

Vote Count 12

(# of votes against) Voted Player - by Voter(s)

(2) TonyMontana - by Corvuus, Qanqan

(0) Corvuus
(1) Empking - by veerus
(1) veerus - by Empking
(0) ortolan
(1) Qanqan - by ortolan
(0) Trumpet of Doom
(1) zwetschenwasser - by Trumpet of Doom

Five (5) votes to Lynch.


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Post Post #379 (ISO) » Wed Mar 18, 2009 12:18 am

Post by TonyMontana »

veerus wrote:Barely? 86% pretty much expected we'd get 1 guard. 65% is not quite the slam dunk, but since we started playing the numbers, it kind of makes sense to finish the same way. Odds are still on our side it seems.
Sure, and if we land those 65% with a guard kill, we're down to 60%. Cap two more and it's 50/50. Did I hear "game-breaking" uttered? [face_palm]
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Post Post #380 (ISO) » Wed Mar 18, 2009 12:54 am

Post by TonyMontana »

2 random lynches prob:

Kill king (win): 25%
Kill rebels (lose): 36%
Kill 1 guard: 32%
Kill 2 guards: 4%

Percent lost due to dropping out of high school: 3% (attribute to pro town outcomes)
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Post Post #381 (ISO) » Wed Mar 18, 2009 12:56 am

Post by TonyMontana »

Vote: zwet

For trying to hard to look innocent, and trying to hard to look active.
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Post Post #382 (ISO) » Wed Mar 18, 2009 11:10 am

Post by zwetschenwasser »

I'm not trying hard to look active, I AM active. Seriously, I was just nominated for the title "Cricket with Restless Leg Syndrome"
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Post Post #383 (ISO) » Wed Mar 18, 2009 1:56 pm

Post by Corvuus »

oro:
Answering for another player I consider defending another player. TM can go after Q himself and make his defense and posts on his own. If he FAILS to do so, then that is information/read. Why? Because if he doesn't defend against Q but just goes after Zwet instead of trying to defend himself at all then that is scummy to me, and hey, wow, look at that, It is EXACTLY what he is doing. Ignoring Q, and going after Zwet. Why? Oh, maybe because YOU are defending him. And he is moving on to talk about lynch probability but NOT Q at all. Why? etc. etc.

So yes, I find it suspicious of both of you.

--------------
Corvuus (368) wrote:2. Blatantly saying things which shouldn't be said unless you are advising scum.
What are these?

Oro: It is obvious. Read your post again and think about it. To say more is just giving out info.

--------------------
Corvuus (368) wrote:3. apparently this is all based on your belief that scum couldn't have verified each other, and thus there is no buddying to worry about and you think the fact that you blatantly buddy must somehow mean that you are rebel and so is TM since guard/king wouldn't be so obvious??
I'm not saying scum haven't verified one another, ironically at this point I'm feeling increasingly strongly that the king knows who one of his guards (at least) is. That doesn't mean no-one else has picked up on it, though. What I object to is your position in 342 that "WELL YOU DONT' KNOW, they might have found some AMAZINGLY CLEVER way of cross-confirming each other while the townies are oblivious to it." Again I ask you to describe any way this could actually be done in practice e.g.; or in fact I will go you one better. Do you think random voting the king would be a good way to subtly telegraph your role as a guard? Do you think breadcrumbing something strange about the king would be a good way to subtly telegraph your role as a guard? If not how do you suggest, they are going to do so with no risk of being caught?

Oro: If you think you know who a guard is then say it. Otherwise, your post is quite stupid since you said to 'me' before to prove that they have not confirmed/know each other at all and now you say that you think they have so who is it and what was said. The rest, I don't know how much to say since I didn't say that they did a AMAZINGLY CLEVER WAY of confirming each other but that it could be REALLY stupid but obvious to them and not to us. If they did RVS vote the king, then that is really stupid. If it is a breadcrumb that is strange, then it is findable upon re-read and will end up being really stupid. So what is your read and your suggestion?


-------------------------
Corvuus (368) wrote:i.e. you and TM's actions are suspicious, yet your 'defense' is that it is so BLATANT and 'stupid' for scum to do that it is not suspicious at all.
How are
my
actions suspicious? We've already seen yourself and Qanqan's justification for TM's actions being suspicious. I think it's poor, but you don't need to go there again. Just tell me why
I'm
scummy.

Oro: I did. Heck, you ignoring it is scummy in itself but maybe that is just how you play. If you don't find yourself defending/buddying with TM suspicious at all, then what do you think is scummy?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Corvuus (368) wrote: I couldn't careless if we lynch Zwet today, but I find it INCREDIBLY ironic that a defense for Zwet is as simple as "posting nonsense 1 liners, blah blah, joke, blah, crap" is so BLATANTLY scummy that he can't possible be scum since scum wouldn't do that.

and yet, the argument for TM and yourself Oro is pretty much exactly the same, yet it is ok when you and TM do it?
I don't understand what you are arguing here. TonyMontana is attacking zwet. You are saying you find zwet scummy. Yet you find TM scummy also???? And someone in all of this is apparently defending zwet- it's not me though. Who are you talking about?

Oro: Since this will answer your other points as well. I will tell you my meta or what I think and I mentioned this in my previous post.

First off, several players say I am 'most townie'. I DO find this suspicious. Either they think so, or they are guards just 'saying so' to buddy me or get my voting to be along with them or to mislynch me upon their flip.

How do I determine this? I decided to be AGGRESSIVE and EXTREME and see what people say about me then. I go after different players ( i will come to everyone in due time) to get a reaction out of them *AND* for the players who said "Corvuus is so townie", I will get a read off of them when they think I've gone 'less townie', etc.. I don't trust them or you 100% at all for 'saying i am most townie' and I actually trust you (oro) least since

1. You said you thought I was most townie in your post #15
2. Q said someone else (EMPKing) and you said you thought me instead in your post #16.

I could have just said "yay, i am most townie, i will just sit back and watch people die and hope that town gets it right". Instead, I interpret that my best optimum play is to USE this to my advantage in getting reads/info out of people and I can also test reads on people who said "corv is most townie", especially if they are guards and I do something that they don't like. Just because I don't explicitly mention you (since i would say your post would make you my biggest supporter back then oro) doesn't mean I didn't see what was going on, didn't like it and what I think about it.

I don't believe any of you who 'voted me most townie' mean you will stick with me 100% all the way through, but scum may not know that and heck if scum are in it and I go after a guard, then they will change their reaction and response as well. Whether you agree with me or not, "if corvuus is most townie, and he votes someone, then others vote with him, etc. etc", I can get reactions out of those who didn't 'pick me' and of those 'who did pick me'. I get information and reads and all I have to do is go after someone extremely and see how people respond.

I've chosen TM for this. You can argue whether I should have gone after someone else, but frankly, it didn't matter. He happened to say something and it was after I was 'said to be townie' and I decided to choose this path (I realized I would be almost impossible to lynch since I wouldn't self-vote). If you think I am town (as you stated) and you aren't scum and have NO info on TM's alignment, then why not wagon him for information/reads? Instead, your action defends him and he ignores it. Why? He has nothing further to say about Q or me but goes after Zwet? Why? He has nothing to say about Q (while you do) and still goes after Zwet. WHY?

I have no problem with seeing Zwet and TM as scummy and as buddies, and heck, for all I know TM may be King, Zwet and You (oro) are his guards and you are busing a guard to verify the King and playing it out that way.

Your play is scummy and you didn't answer or respond about it at all.

----------

If you didn't get it from my above points/post, as a Rebel, i play a solo-hand. I could have chosen to say that the ones who said I am town are 'suspicious' but I chose my way to do things and test things out and I am fine with it since hey, look at that, my 'biggest supporter' of me being town now finds me scummy, what a great reversal. I won't worry about you flipping guard and me getting mislynched based on that.

I gave a reason for why I thought Trumpet was townie. You can disagree with me, i couldn't careless. My reason was more detailed than yours or Q's so I find it scummy that you say "it is interesting" when your case is worse. Hypocrite much?

Q said he has pro-town vibe from me, and as I said above and before, I will get responses/reactions out of him as the game progresses. I see him as neutral since his play isn't horribly scummy to me but he also named me most townie and I don't know why yet (genuine or manipulation) so as I said, neutral.

But hey, if we want reads on mine, TM and Q's alignment, then maybe we can go ahead and lynch you Oro and find out :).

Corvuus
P.S. you didn't answer any of my points in your post. please try.
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Post Post #384 (ISO) » Wed Mar 18, 2009 2:14 pm

Post by Corvuus »

zwetschenwasser wrote:Corvuus, it's just something that bothers me. It looks like you're directing the king/guard to act a certain way to defend your master, by your capitalizing of words and other verbiage. Tony, it doesn't help to criticize something we already did.
I'm keeping my vote on TM until TM and Oro answer my latest post in a decent way but then I will be voting you Zwet for this response and
FoS
for now. Lynching TM first, Zwet second (like Veerus said) is fine with me.

If it isn't obvious, saying "to defend your master", etc. you accuse me of being guard.

What did I say that bothered you, what was directed by 'capitalizing of words and other verbiage'. Otherwise, your post is a bunch of crap.

---------------------------------------------

Veerus, do you have comments on the person you replaced or points brought up against your player slot? I don't think you said anything about it.

Thanks,

Corvuus
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Post Post #385 (ISO) » Wed Mar 18, 2009 3:51 pm

Post by veerus »

There isn't really much to say. #14 was barely active and hohum zeroed in on a single player with what seemed to be an out-of-game agenda. Was there something specific you wanted me to look at?
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
-Fight Club
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Post Post #386 (ISO) » Wed Mar 18, 2009 8:17 pm

Post by Qanqan »

ortolan wrote:
Oh, also, I didn't ignore any of your previous questions that I'm aware of. Which are you talking about?
Beginning of 356.
ortolan wrote:Tony's rolls weren't for random lynching and he never said they were. They were to determine who the king was. Again, it only really makes sense as satire.
He never said they weren't, and that's how they looked to me. There is more than one way to read people, you know.
ortolan wrote:You need to be specific here. Rather than just saying "I do believe you are spouting logical fallacies holes in your arguments" and "I assure you, this isn't OMGUS" you need to provide some justification as to why these statements are true.
I pointed out the fallicies as I was going along, with justification. You constalntly put in your interperetations of how I had supposedly interpereted the situation and tried to pass them off as mine, in the hopes I would attack them.
ortolan wrote:sorry, "I do believe you are spouting logical fallacies
and have
holes in your arguments".
Wow, that's a little hypocritical. You can't tell me I need to back my claims that you are using logical fallicies (which I had done to a reasonable extent) and then make the claims yourself with no justification (and no, 'it was humour' is not a valid excuse).
My name is not Quanqan or Qangan~

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