Shell Game (Day 6)

[wolfbae]

Gut townread I had on firebagel last night looking pretty good. Maybe I don't totally suck at this game.

[wolfbae]

Sometimes the players doing fuck all do in fact get scum role PMs, though. And I don't really subscribe to Dragons being scum for trying. It feels like he has his own perspective on the game he wants to get out there. Not confident but it does feel like he's solving. (and I don't particularly buy the notion that he'd feel pressed given he was not particularly scumread out of the inventors). I was wary of how he had posts seemingly tying cakez/morph together last night though because those felt like they could come from scum looking to influence attention toward certain slots.

Obviously experience can't really speak to it, but I thought it was bizarre that ActionDan's perspective was that scum had to also be an inventor, but that somehow it was only town who would figure out/intuit the setup, or that sunflower is town for posting a meme(?) after crumbing. I thought at the time maybe it was town who hadn't thought things through but the logic really is glaringly poor.

[Firebagel]

I don't think Dragons needs to feel personally under pressure at the current moment to feel pressured to action. If the team is like Brian/Dragons/Cakez/Gypyx/Firebringer they have no thread control and Dragons is the best set up to endgame. And that's not well set up at all, hence feeling the need to look like he's being useful and not someone who's gonna casually get yeeted for low activity.

[wolfbae]

VOTE: Dunnstral

I am willing to collect pelts outside the inventor hood, though, if there is doubt and uncertainty about alignments in there (and admittedly I'm not fully confident because like how can you be confident on the alignment of someone not playing the game). Having reread this and feeling mostly okay about the majority of that other hood, I am fully content with voting here. I think his play is aimed at not makig waves but doesn't truly show scumhunting intent. The vote on Brian was quite weak and can easily be a bus (statistically in large games scum bus far more often than not on Day 1 scum elims).


My take on the mechanics of the inventor neighborhood, which I gave to the chat, was this: The inventor roles are more or less useless. The likelihood you gather enough investigations to have usable data while only sending the inventions to town is quite slim and takes a long time. This probably is more or less by design. The roles are there primarily as an indicator that 1 scum exists in the neighborhood since the setup mirrors traditional dethy. However, given enough time, it is possible to mechanically solve a dethy, and I imagine the restriction on the neighborhood was placed in as a safeguard to prevent that exact thing from happening and encourage people to actually try to solve the group through social reads rather than mechanics.

Even if we assume the worst-case scenario of "everyone in the hood dies if scum is alive in it past Night X", I'm not sure that's a calamitous outcome for the overall game and I'd probably take that trade if people are more comfortable hunting outside.

[wolfbae]

I don't think Dragons needs to feel personally under pressure at the current moment to feel pressured to action. If the team is like Brian/Dragons/Cakez/Gypyx/Firebringer they have no thread control and Dragons is the best set up to endgame. And that's not well set up at all, hence feeling the need to look like he's being useful and not someone who's gonna casually get yeeted for low activity.

Firebringer is almost certainly town, you're a bit too wrapped up in your pet theory about what scum are/aren't doing and it's distorting your view of the game.

[Dunnstral]

I think his play is aimed at not makig waves but doesn't truly show scumhunting intent.

This is super vague and untrue.

The vote on Brian was quite weak and can easily be a bus (statistically in large games scum bus far more often than not on Day 1 scum elims).

Can you explain how my vote is different from Spiffeh, morph, or marci's vote?

I voted for Brian because their vote on SirCakez was super lazy and didn't really make sense from town, plus they were a nonentity in discussions but still present. How is that weak?

[Dunnstral]

Why are you willing to vote outside of the hood when we are on a time limit?

[wolfbae]

Can you explain how my vote is different from Spiffeh, morph, or marci's vote?

Spiffeh spent significant parts of Day 1 casing Brian Skies and calling for his death. It's not really comparable at all to someone who voted him once and didn't really push the wagon. It's not impossible for scum to hard bus on Day 1 but I'm not really willing to consider him as mafia toDay given the vigor with which he pursued that read. morph isn't impossible as a bus vote but haven't tracked their progression in detail, not super interested in pushing them either given the claim is probably self-resolving. (I thought it was bullshit when I first saw it, but apparently not). I townread marci independently of her posts on Brian. Looking it over she defended Brian a significant amount but I don't necessarily see that as damning, I think the way her thoughts evolve on Brian feel believable, like she has genuine uncertainty over his alignment. nitially hinks him towny but is swayed by the spiffeh case, starts to have doubts later. Being incorrect doesn't inherently mean scum and I can look at her reasoning and believe it came from a town-aligned player.

I'm evaluating the 6 person neighborhood and your gameplay is the one I have the least reason to townread.

[wolfbae]

Why are you willing to vote outside of the hood when we are on a time limit?

I just expressed that: even if it means all the town in the hood die I don't think it's the worst outcome in the world if we catch the scum outside the hood, and it's useful information regardless to get my takes on the rest of the game out.

[wolfbae]

If the scum in your grouping

isn't

you (and admittedly assuming one is a bit of a logical leap), then who is it?

[Dunnstral]

I think it would be Firebringer or Sircakez. Though for SirCakez he was being pushed by Brian yesterday which is the reason Brian got voted.

You are absolutely wrong about everyone dying in that hood being ok. Also I think that is really unlikely

[Dunnstral]

I like 4107 though you do have a thought process here. You were being super vague so it looked like you didn't know.

[Dunnstral]

I don't know how you are looking at my posts and thinking I am avoiding making waves though. I am giving all my opinions.

[Lukewarm]

The non-reactions and the reaction-reactions to my wolfbae posts are low-key demoralizing ngl.

I saw someone mention my handling of Brian and cakez wagons was of interest to one of the hoods. This is roughly my thoughts on the two as they played out

-I voted cakez because he thread dipped after the pooky thing. I think I started the wagon? Could be wrong.

-Saw a couple people vote Brian, which prompted me to read his iso. I thought it was bad. I was still scum reading cakez more, but I had the thought that the wagon on Cakez seemed less likely to be useful in that moment because he was still VLA, so joined up on the brian wagon.

-The Cakez came back, and his wagon started dissipating, I saw my strongest town read (Notty) posting repeatedly about how scummy he thought Cakez was. I was about even on Brian and Cakez at that point, so figured I might as well work with notty to keep the wagons dueling. Both as a Team Work Makes The Dream Work, and also because dueling wagons on my top two choices seemed good anyways. Notty left me on read about it but after I followed up with it, we both voted cakez

-Started having shimmers of thinking that cakez could actually be town. Not enough to *really* swing my read him, but enough to actually prefer Brian between the two of them, so I went back to Brian.

---

I also saw a post about Dunn's read progression on me following my morph post, and I did want to comment that that is par for the course with how dunn has tried to read me across multiple games. The first properly formatted and annotated post I make swings me into town.

Funny enough, I was literally talking about Dunn using this to read me, but without saying it was him lol, when I made this post:

For example Dunn's level of engagement and scumhunting this game has felt beyond what I've seen him pull off as scum in the past.

Does them being bad faith make him scum? I feel like Dunn does this as either alignment

I kind of felt like both parts of how he talked about you did not make sense to me, but was curious if there was a history there.

There are people who I think use bad reasons to town read me, but keep use that same reason repeatedly, so I stopped balking when I see it. So was kinda checking if that was the case here. But it does not sound like it.

[Dunnstral]

Have I been wrong though? I don't recall

[Dunnstral]

When I see you put in a lot of effort in a post and theory craft it makes me t hink you are town

[wolfbae]

The non-reactions and the reaction-reactions to my wolfbae posts are low-key demoralizing ngl.

That's because it's an atrocious read and its premise was very quickly invalidated. You would know this if you were actually reading the game thread and cared about solving.

[wolfbae]

I wasn't even casing you (merely intimating you look quite scummy if cakez is town) so dumping a full explainer on your progression is interesting, to say the least.

[Lukewarm]

Have I been wrong though? I don't recall

When I see you put in a lot of effort in a post and theory craft it makes me t hink you are town

I am pretty sure that you (and Bell) used the same reason to incorrectly town read me in the scum game that I ended up having to rep out of (ffery took my slot, lld was my partner, but dont remember the exact game)

I made a big effort post to push STD, and I gained a lot of town reads from it.

[Lukewarm]

I wasn't even casing you (merely intimating you look quite scummy if cakez is town) so dumping a full explainer on your progression is interesting, to say the least.

Never said I was cased, I just saw it said that one of the hoods was talking about it over night so figured I would comment.

I have an incessant need to be understood.

[Dunnstral]

Looks like Lukewarm is capable of wall posting as mafia

[wolfbae]

You clearly are responding to things I have said but somehow have not noticed that I am using completely different tone and vernacular compared to when I entered the game and complaining no one is engaging you on your case. You're either purely skimming the game and being embarrassingly lazy or you are not actually interested in solving the game and are skimming to simply get up to speed but not actually thinking about anything that is being posted at all. If it's the former I suggest you actually start trying to play the game, if it's the latter you'll get got eventually.

[Lukewarm]

VLA until Monday

Yeah, I have been mostly skimming throughout the day.

I noticed you switched up your approach. My statement was not that it was demoralizing because people did not sheep me.

It felt like I was literally ignored (before you made the change) and then I got a "yeah, that's a silly goofy thing that Luke does" when it was finally addressed.

That had a demoralizing effect on me, unrelated to you then taking off your persona.

Because I am on vla, I am not able to properly interrogate or push, so when I did find time to sit down before bed, I used that time to expound on things that only I could that I had seen through out the day, namely my own process and my history dunn

[Sunflower]

my reason to townread luke was better

[Sunflower]

also i can't speak for everyone but i ignored you because i knew the point was very quickly going to become irrelevant