Micro 813 - Game Over

[OkaPoka]

man i don't even understand genuine reads anymore

how do you guys even sort whether someone sounds genuine, to me genuine is something i say when im too lazy to explain deeper and i just have a gut feeling that they are town

[GuiltyLion]

I don't particularly like this from Otter. Everything else seemed great up until here, but then I try to imagine what motivation you could have for casting doubt onto GL when you've already agreed that you two share a similar writing style and tone? It seems like you're trying to cast doubt on GL subtley and then backtracking on it. Real talk ? Seems like you're worried about what happens after the Invisibility flip since GL seems to be the only one that really has you as an option in the back of their mind still.

also

I kinda felt this way at first, but I think it does make sense in the context of everything else Otter posted. like if Otter is town here then they're likely struggling with the same thing I am where you have scum!Invis, mayybe scum!Maf, but then kind of a void where third scum fits in, and so I would expect me to be in their suspect pool especially since we were both off the Korina wagon. And the point about my attitude shift on "tone" while also clarifying that he may be misreading/taking my first post too literally feels a little too nuanced for most scumplay - I feel scum is more likely to either push it or not bring it up at all, rather than try to do the "here's what I have a problem with but also here's a town!explanation for it" line that Otter went with.

[GuiltyLion]

how do you guys even sort whether someone sounds genuine, to me genuine is something i say when im too lazy to explain deeper and i just have a gut feeling that they are town

genuine for me mostly points at "it's hard for me to imagine that this person posted this while knowing that their point/argument is wrong/bullshit/fake"

the tricky thing is - like I said earlier - good scum will find ways to make genuine arguments that still push what they want to push

like the thing is with my 449, if Otter

knows

that I'm town then he knows everything I've posted has been exactly how I've felt, for a fact. So I feel like it'd be harder for him to describe my posts as "guarded" or "careful" because I think someone reading my posts with the prior knowledge that I'm town wouldn't be inclined see them as particularly composed, they would rather probably be biased to perceive them as more extemporaneous (which they are)

[GuiltyLion]

it's why you always have to be careful with examining someone else's townreads - scum!me is money at posting townreads which sound nice & genuine & game-solvey because I can drum up a lot of plausible reasons for why I think someone who I know is town is town

scumreads are nearly always going to be easier to spot as being contrived/bullshitty

[OkaPoka]

you are town right? there is no way scum you would be saying the things you are saying. I don't know why but I'm getting the impression that you are trying to make me doubt you.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm town, I'm just tired/slightly inebriated and going off on side tangent/rants about mafia in the abstract

when I'm self-metaing about how I play as scum I'm not like trying to make a big point about this particular game I'm just trying to use examples to say why "genuine" is loosely associated with towniness but not always

maybe a better example is MafMen's TR on manatee - like I said in 97, if scum!MafMen and town!Manatee then it can be a "genuine" case for town!Manatee that's still coming from scum.

[OkaPoka]

im tired and apathetic and paranoid in this game

i feel like scum is just pumping bullshit and i cant tell who is the bullshitter anymore. its all wifom. nothing is making sense, nobody is playing the way i feel like they should be playing if they were town or scum.

[GuiltyLion]

personally i'm mostly just waiting for Invisibility to get lynched and firing out random side takes in the hopes that it spins off something else AI in the meantime

i feel Otter's posts were pretty good, first impression is that I feel better about him which makes Manatee probably another scum which helps explain game slowing down the past few days

I'm kinda hoping it's just Invis/Maf/Manatee and we (you, Anti, me) are spinning our wheels because the scumteam isn't trying

is there anything to be gleaned from Manatee pseudo-replacing out then joining back in

Manatee what was your thought process there? why did you request replace out originally? and while 445 is funny it's also extremely bogus if you're actually town and that's the best you can do

[GuiltyLion]

like here's the narrative of the Invis/Maf/Manatee team

Manatee comes under fire early and Maf decides to defend him, gets heat for this and commits to it rather than backing down

Invis plays a loosey-goosey game and plays a large part in securing a Korina mislynch, Maf jumps on when he feels enough time has passed where he can convincingly join the wagon

Maf takes the "Invis is scum bussing" angle to put some distance between him and Invis and hopefully dissuade the idea of them being paired, with the added benefit that on Korina townflip it gives him a reason to back off Invisibility on D2

town/thread consensus somewhat quickly pivots hard against Invisibility, scumteam slightly caught off guard by this and don't know what to do

Maf doesn't want to vote Invis cause he knows between his flak that he's taken and Manatee not playing, they're going to lose if Invis goes down

Invis doesn't want to post much because he doesn't want to give associatives/dig his whole further

Manatee gives up and replaces out, then comes back because Kublai can't replace the slot and feels bad for abandoning

someone tell me where I'm wrong here or why this isn't what happened

[GuiltyLion]

EBWOP - dig his hole** further

[GuiltyLion]

and oka shade on anti is incredibly blech

here's scum trying to maybe jump in to the one biggest potential crack in the Anti/Oath/GL/sort-of-Oka townbloc that is mostly impenetrable

w/ extra shade at Oka & myself in his other posts to maybe see if anyone else will bite there

[GuiltyLion]

-I agree with Anti that Invis is going to be a lylo liability. I don't like the initial vote on Manatee, though the vote on Korina seems fine. D2, he gives some reads with no explanation. There's nothing offensive to the current gamestate in it so this would be a really easy list to throw up as scum. I'd say Invis!scum means Maf!scum and Oka!town based on his reads and who he ends up voting.
- Mafmen is a strong scumread. There are some posts that feel fake to me (the reactions to the Korina hammer come to mind. When I get more time later tonight I'll come back to this thought). It continues to bother me how hesitant he is with his scumreads. When he does finally come up with some reads, he gives {Invis, Korina, Oka} based entirely on PoE and ends up voting Korina D1 and Oka D2, still based on PoE. Sixteen pages in and there's still no substance to this read other than he thinks the argument between Oka and Anti is contrived (so why not scumread Anti as well? because it's not popular to do so?) So, in a scumteam of Maf and Invis, both are scumreading each other while never voting each other, and they both end up voting Korina D1 and Oka D2. Lynching either of these peeps should give us some good info.
- Manatee actually feels scummiest to me. He's done literally nothing of substance except complain about the early wagon on himself, townread Oath and Oka for no real reason, and vote me on gut. Also, the claim that he and Maf could never be SvS is unsubstantiated and suspicious. However, I don't think lynching this slot is very helpful at the moment.

rereading all of this again and I feel it's all pretty much spot on and a rather succinct way of putting the problems with each of those three slots

[OkaPoka]

I think we are going to need to see if manateedude makes a big post or not before we pass further judgement onto him. Manateedude being scum points to mafmen being scum, but mafmen can also be scum while manateedude is town so mafmen is the safer lynch imo/

[GuiltyLion]

also explained by Maf/Invis/Manatee team: Invis going from "I see the scumreads on manatee" in 47 to "he's lynchbait" in 67

honestly if you reread the entire first 3-4 pages of the game under the lens of Maf/Invis/Manatee the whole thing pretty much makes sense

I think we've got it here ladies and gentlemen, let's move onwards with the Invis lynch

[LuckyOtter]

@Oath: GL summed it up pretty well but I'll just add that I was following up on a thought from my reads. I was nullreading GL and wanted to explain my hangup on a mostly townread slot. Regardless of how Invis flips I'm going to have to tease apart GL and Manatee and so I'm sharing my thought process on GL.

And to answer you're question, it is entirely possible that GL is scum but I don't find it very plausible atm. In otherwords he's a townlean for me. Possible partners would be in the so-called townbloc, but I don't want to have to explore that idea unless I really have to. Occam's razor and not feeding into paranoia and whatnot.
--
OK so Invisibility showed up to defend himself a little bit, but still hasn't done a lot to explain his reads on Oka, and nothing to explain his reads on Maf or me. He's complaining that he just seems to fit into a narrative, but that's exactly how he portrays Oka (with the exception of the business with Anti). He throws Mafmen into his scumlist again without explaining why and without pursuing a vote there (this is the associative that keeps popping up for you, Invis).
--
Welcome back, Manatee.

VOTE: Invisibility

[ManateeDude]

Umm... I replaced because I was dealing with this..

http://www.blankmediagames.com/phpbb/vi ... 17&t=86660

[ManateeDude]

I can see MM TRing me for a pocket. It has worked before when I was town.

VOTE: MM

[Antihero]

someone tell me where I'm wrong here or why this isn't what happened

bc, like korina, they're bumbling and/or make awful posts and you're mentally imposing a scum agenda on bad (or nonexistent) posting

[Antihero]

ok yeah recent posting still doesn't get invis a ticket to lylo

VOTE: invisibility

[Antihero]

someone tell me where I'm wrong here or why this isn't what happened

my working theory: [invis, oka, manatee]

me+mafmen are designated fall guys after invis bus

things like manatee popping up out of nowhere to defend oka, invis' random throwaway blackstar vote, and invis listing manatee as lynchbait makes sense to me w this

[Antihero]

I think we are going to need to see if manateedude makes a big post or not before we pass further judgement onto him. Manateedude being scum points to mafmen being scum, but mafmen can also be scum while manateedude is town so mafmen is the safer lynch imo/

so does this

[GuiltyLion]

Yah Anti I can see that. I guess I'm just townreading Oka in isolation so I'm putting less stock in Invis/Manatee/Oka overall. But it's definitely a potential alternate world that deserves serious consideration.

I'm thinking Manatee is the best lynch if/when Invis flips scum. MafMen has already set himself up not to vote there. Will be interesting to see if Oka will join on.

[ManateeDude]

Why Do I feel like antihero is scum?

[Antihero]

is it.... because i called you scum?

[ManateeDude]

is it.... because i called you scum?

Yes im bad but not that bad.