Mini 739 ~ Mafia Jailbreak, Game Over

[iamausername]

it is deadline day guys. VOTE

More specifically, vote for RedCoyote.

[bionicchop2]

it is deadline day guys. VOTE

More specifically, vote for RedCoyote.

Maybe if we get him to L

+

3 we can coax a claim out of him. That is if it is convenient for him and after he gets the opinions of everybody again and they super-confirm they want to vote for him.

[bionicchop2]

it is deadline day guys. VOTE

We have 30 hours and 16 minutes from this post. It is 7:44 PM EST on the 25th right now. Deadline is 11 PM EST on the 26th.

7:44 + 16 minutes = 8:00 PM
11:00 PM - 8:00 PM = 3 hours
Add 24 for an additional day -> 27 hours + 16 minutes.

~ Vi

[popsofctown]

What?
I thought OGML said he'd be back at the end of the day the day after mardi gras to vote just before the deadline. And they call it fat tuesday. Maybe i'm off.

RC for Lynchident

[bionicchop2]

7:44 + 16 minutes = 8:00 PM
11:00 PM - 8:00 PM = 3 hours
Add 24 for an additional day -> 27 hours + 16 minutes.

~ Vi

I somehow re-added back in 3 hours for west coast time!

[Vi]

Vote Count:

RedCoyote (L-2) ~ Huntress, bionicchop2, Rishi, iamausername, popsofctown

Rhinox (L-4) ~ Jahudo, OhGodMyLife, CF Riot
popsofctown (L-4) ~ SpyreX, Moriarty147, RedCoyote
OhGodMyLife (L-6) ~ Rhinox

Minimum (L-7)

[size=0]bionicchop2 - 0 | Huntress - 1 | iamausername - 0 - PROD1 11 PROD2 3 | Jahudo - 0 | CF Riot - 1 | Moriarty147 - 0 | OhGodMyLife - 1 - PROD1 18 PROD2 4 | popsofctown - 0 | RedCoyote - 0 | Rhinox - 1 | Rishi - 0 | SpyreX - 0 PROD1 10[/size]

Final Deadline: Thursday, Feb 26 2009

(This is your last day!)

-----

I'm doing considerably better now... although I'm still tired (hence why I'm not waiting until 11 for this vote count). Thanks for the well-wishes, Jahudo.

[Jahudo]

If the vote situation doesn't change in the next 12 hours or so I think RC should claim so we have enough time to analyze and respond.

Once again I like Rhino > pops > RC for a lynch.

[Huntress]

Ok, I think I pulled everything relevant.

So, lets break it down:

Why RC is scum via 191:

1.) Because of rolefishing in 108.
2.) Assuming that others were assuming there wasn't an SK.
3.) Talk of role setup in 126.
4.) Buddying up with you.
5.) Starting a discussion on self-voting then leaving.
6.) Constant SK discussion this early in the game.

Am I missing any?

So, sans the fact that (keep in mind I am not rereading to make 100% sure) minus 4 and 5 (which, really, are filler compared to the other issues) multiple people had commented and voted for him based on this at that point I'll give you there was some pre-case on him.

This begs the question: Why was it the summation of something Rhinox said (that wasn't even an indictment of scum from Rhinox) that you voted after

and not your own case

?

But, yes, I will concede it is there.

You've rather minimised the case there but that's the bare bones of it. It was also more to do with the

way

he tried to justify what he was doing, and claiming others were responsible for some of his actions. One example of this is the extract from his 465 quoted below. As for the vote, I usually put a vote at or near the bottom of the post. Or at least after all the comments relating to the person I'm voting for. What is so strange about that?

So you've said I'm your #2. Anything at all in writing yet? On CFR or I? Even baseline suspicions?

No, I'm still in the information gathering stage. I was waiting for your replies to my questions.

So, lets have a few postulates.

1.) You believe RC is scum (hence your vote).
2.) You said that there are two scenarios:
a.) RC is bussing pops (i.e. they are both scum).
b.) RC is "pretending" to bus pops (i.e. pops is town.)
3.) You said the former is more likely (2.a.).
4.) You have shown no real suspicion of pops as independently being scum.

Now, keep in mind I do believe both you and pops to be scummy - and I wouldn't be surprised one whit if you were scum together. So, like I said in that post: when RC turns up town (like I think he is), then pops is, of course, not going to be a subject of pushing.

If this is wrong, it really lies on #4. Show me somewhere, anywhere, where you've shown suspicion of pops on his own and I'll have to rethink this. Of course, I'd also like to see actual suspicion on the other people you've said you are suspicious of (sans RC, who we covered).

Have I missed anything else?

What is your point here? You know perfectly well that I haven't given any details of my suspicions of Pops yet, apart from the fact that he is not one of my top two suspects, so what are you trying to prove with this?

It's unfortunate that Rishi, Huntress, and username have really put this game on the back burner, because it forces me into a very awkward position.

It's basically forcing me to put all my chips on Rhinox, a person who I do think is scum. Rhinox has claimed multiple times that he doesn't see me as scum, so I think he'd be hardpressed to vote me at L-2 if pops is going to be at L-1 on Thursday (assuming CF Riot, Jahudo, and OGML's opinions have not changed, and given that Rishi, Huntress, and username are all wild cards).

That being said, I'm putting the farm on the pops wagon. As you can tell, I'm foregoing the claim I promised I would make, mainly because, and I agree with pops on this point, neither Huntress nor Rishi have made their positions clear like bionic, Jahudo, Spy, or CF Riot.

A few things wrong with this. First is the baseless claim that I and others have "put this game on the back burner". Then the claim that this is "forcing" him to rely on Rhinox, despite the fact he thinks Rhinox is scum. And then the claim that I have not made my position clear. What is not clear about saying that I'm "fine with my vote on RC"?

Why would you bother to post this and not reference pops at all?

I was replying to CF Riot's question. Pops didn't come into it.

[SpyreX]

You've rather minimised the case there but that's the bare bones of it. It was also more to do with the way he tried to justify what he was doing, and claiming others were responsible for some of his actions. One example of this is the extract from his 465 quoted below. As for the vote, I usually put a vote at or near the bottom of the post. Or at least after all the comments relating to the person I'm voting for. What is so strange about that?

Let me know what I missed.

As for 465 being part of the case you voted on before it happened... well.

Well, wow. For whatever reason I thought they were two separate posts (your case and the quote of rhinox followed by your vote). So, lord, I still dont understand why you quoted rhinox as a summary of your case when, really, it wasn't but disregard my other statement on grounds of illiteracy.

No, I'm still in the information gathering stage. I was waiting for your replies to my questions.

Well, fat stack of good that does with one day before the lynch. I really dont like the fact you dont have "anything" on anyone besides RC. But, what is done is done.

What is your point here? You know perfectly well that I haven't given any details of my suspicions of Pops yet, apart from the fact that he is not one of my top two suspects, so what are you trying to prove with this?

To be perfectly clear: you have not, at all, given suspicion of any player besides RC. Your sidehand suspicion of pops has always been held hand-in-hand with RC being scum.

Most everything you've said about RC is parts of the case pushed by other people. Aside from that you've latched on and said almost nothing today.

That, of course, is why I would be happy with your lynch. Pops more though.

[RedCoyote]

If the vote situation doesn't change in the next 12 hours or so I think RC should claim so we have enough time to analyze and respond.

So it appears.

Well, as some of you have undoubtedly suspected, I am the

Townie Jailer

(My God, now it all makes sense). My, ahem, "breadcrumbing" may have began to spiral out of control somewhere around, oh, the third or fourth page? XD

The formal claim would've likely came earlier had it not been for a couple of specific, strange happenings.

1)

Rhinox's early claim, which I think this town took far too lightly. Granted, given that some of those who were voting me (but not all) were under the impression that I was scum, but even if I had claimed what the townies who were voting me might have suspected, a vanilla townie, it still puts the scum at a greater advantage to know that piece of information. It's mainly for this reason that I tried considerably hard to find ways not to have to claim.

1a)

username's awkward shift from this,

You ask people to claim at L-1 as a last resort to save themselves from a lynch. If they claim vanilla, then they give you no reason not to go ahead with the lynch, so they should be hammered immediately. You don't want to then go and wagon someone else to a claim, because that could lead to a power role being outed completely unnecessarily.

to this,

More specifically, vote for RedCoyote.

which gave me somewhat of a shock. Certainly if there is any silver lining to my claim for day one, this contradiction would likely be it.

1b)

pops' awkward shift from this,

My take on the premature claim is that we probably do need to lynch Rhinox. I think Rhinox has been scummy. The original misread and horribly crappy and desperate coverup is lynch reason enough, and the vanilla claim means we really ought to decide whether Rhinox is scum or not. Based on my own analysis of setup possibilities, a suspicious vanilla townie is useless in night strategy

to this,

As i said earlier, the lynching of Rhinox is a theory point that i was open to discussion with. BC has a convincing explanation of how i still need to feel Rhinox is somewhat scummy to justify his lynch. Right now, i'm not sure he is.

which just gave me more evidence to the fact that pops' voting patterns have been generally weak, baseless, and easily changed with the tides of the game. Post 348 can only arguably be interpreted as "feeling for a theory", it seems much more sure than he makes it seem in post 381.

1c)

Huntress, username, and Rishi both generally being more lurky than I would've hoped. This can be contrasted to OGML, who, although lurky as well, made his stance clear on both pops v RC and Rhinox v RC. I contend this cannot be said for the three aforementioned players.

2)

The schism in the Rhinox/pops wagons not contained in my wagon. Because I got the impression that both Spyrex and Moriarty would both, if pressed to the wall, vote Rhinox, and because if Jahudo, CF Riot, and OGML would, if pressed to the wall, vote pops, this left both wagons theoretically at L-1. Given that I was only certain that bionic and pops made it clear they only wanted to vote me, and knowing that Rhinox would very likely not vote himself, this still left (and still does frankly, I still am not sure how Rhinox feels about pops) a considerable amount of options to be considered as the actual lynch. This is only further compounded by 1a, leading me to believe that username may have been in favor of a policy lynch on Rhinox to keep a power role from being revealed.

---

"Here's a story about a bunch of guys that spilled salt and then made a big deal about it. On an unrelated note, vote:pops", paraphrase.

No, we disagree again. This comment is just complete misrepresentation pops.

Why does [pops'] post bother me so much in reading?

1.) The concern over a single vote placed, under the misnomer of "I'm just trying to start discussion."
2.) The callout on huntress raises a flag in the statement "I dunno if you're town or scum". Thats one of those obvious apparents to a town that a scum, in my opinion, uses to try and "blend".
3.) The snipe at Korts. Even if you disagree with Korts, what is the pro-town motive for poking and

creating fluff

?

Speaking of fluff, the next few posts are just that.

Fluff - based around the #3 above. Even in his contentish post: again he posts another jibe at the end (another nice little tidbit of cognitive dissonance... who has posted they hate the "nonsense" yet keeps doing it?)

This has tapered off some in the last couple posts, but

again the last two posts were more fluff

- and the last AGAIN is only directed towards the riddle itself.

So, yea, my vote can sit here for a good long while.

(emphasis added).

Again, pops, it's not so much whether you think this is a tell or not, because frankly I think that fluff, alone, is completely null.

What made it stick out with you pops, is not only do you not acknowledge these accusations, you make nine more posts, a majority of which is unarguable fluff, and Spy has to bring you up again, before you consider responding to it.

And that's a strawman, i've been saying you're scummy by meta

Although I don't take Spy's stance on meta, I do take the stance that you shouldn't judge a player by a one game meta in virtually every circumstance I can come up with.

a forced bizarre insert in another post was not enough justification for you to start carrying on like you've been against me all thread long.

How is it bizarre? I'm still not even convinced you know the reason why I suspected you, although I made it about a clear as I could in said post.

You were whining about how the thread is only about you and Rhinox. That doesn't acquit you of any suspicion.

Certainly not, but it seems to me, without taking the time to do a proper count, that a great majority of your posts have either been about one of us, or talking with another player about one of us.

I wanted to have my position known in case others felt the same.

username and CFRiot are both against policy lynching over vanilla claims. That's the way i understood it.

After re-reading CF Riot's post, I admit I was mistaken. I had forgot he told you that that was a bad position, so as far as he goes that's dropped.

But username is a completely different story,

You ask people to claim at L-1 as a last resort to save themselves from a lynch. If they claim vanilla, then they give you no reason not to go ahead with the lynch, so they should be hammered immediately. You don't want to then go and wagon someone else to a claim, because that could lead to a power role being outed completely unnecessarily.

because he said this.

If you flip town, and i doubt you will, i'm calling you town tightwad.

XD

Like I told you, I have much more fun as scum. Now

that's

a meta you can take to the bank!

---

First is the baseless claim that I and others have "put this game on the back burner".

Do you contend you've been as active in this game as you think is appropriate? Do you contend that Rishi and username have, in your opinion, as well?

What is not clear about saying that I'm "fine with my vote on RC"?

It has mostly to do with the suspicions I have that you are possibly delibrately fencesitting on the question of pops' alignment.

I was replying to CF Riot's question. Pops didn't come into it.

Did you not think I was interested in your opinion when I asked for you and Rishi to give a more concrete stance (e.g. bionic, Jahudo, CF Riot, Me, or even OGML)?

[RedCoyote]

unvote, vote: Rhinox

[OhGodMyLife]

Just got out of the car after a grueling 23 straight hours, and hey look a claim from RC that makes perfect sense. Can we get this Rhinox lynch going for reals now?

More later after I've read.

[Rishi]

Still here. Have to ponder the claim. Will be able to check in again before deadline. I am willing to switch my vote to avoid a No Lynch.

[bionicchop2]

I cc that claim.

[OhGodMyLife]

...I somehow don't think bio thought that through before ccing. What about this setup exactly suggests that duplicate roles aren't possible?

[bionicchop2]

One catch is we may have multiple jailers since nothing indicates the role is exclusive. RC phrased it like it was, when he said:

the

Townie Jailer

The role is

a

townie jailer technically.

Either way, my vote isn't changing. If I had a few days before deadline, I would have taken more time to consider countering vs. not countering which is why more pressure should have been applied earlier to get that claim. None of my secondary suspects have any votes on them, so my vote will only move if I am the only person online at deadline and we need 1 more vote.

[bionicchop2]

...I somehow don't think bio thought that through before ccing. What about this setup exactly suggests that duplicate roles aren't possible?

It is possible as I say in my post right after yours, but RC is playing like scum and I don't believe the claim. Why did he mention breadcrumbing, but never actually identify any breadcrumbs?

[bionicchop2]

My instinct is telling me that RC is a mafia RB, since that would make Jailer a fairly safe claim. He can easily be confirmed as blocking somebody.

Also, I have been surprised he hasn't been pushed to L-1 yet except for a brief period before CF Riot replaced in. I thought if he was town, mafia would jump on the case harder (I don't think there are 3+ scum voting for him). Even as mafia, it seems like somebody would be thinking it was time to bus when he was at L-2. A mafia PR is not going to get bussed unless it is a last resort though, which would support him being a mafia RB.

As town, I would see the jailer making a claim at first request - especially as a town who seems to be asserting we have certain roles in the game. There is a decent probability of a watcher or doctor for the town which could protect a jailer claim and let them do their work (part of why I claimed). The claim would have given ample time for everybody else to find a decent lynch option. Hell, I think I would have claimed at the first L-1 way earlier in the day in this setup.

[popsofctown]

It is called mafia jailbreak...

I believe bionic's claim, because i think he's town. I don't believe RC's claim. It's way too late. A jailer wouldn't be so reluctant to claim, because it's not a powerful role. Can't roleblock without protecting, can't protect without roleblocking.

I still favor RC lynch. If he's not a jailer, we have another one, and it's not like jailer is the end-all be-all role. However, in light of the claim, i'm willing to switch to Rhinox, who as i've said, i have a slight town read on but look darkly upon because he's claimed vanilla, for the lynch.

[Jahudo]

My, ahem, "breadcrumbing" may have began to spiral out of control somewhere around, oh, the third or fourth page? XD

Where?

I don't think it's a big deal that he said "The Jailkeeper" instead of "A Jailkeeper". This is semi-open and the sample roles are for everyone to see. They clearly say "You are a town such-and-such". There could be 2 jailkeepers and it's probably worth it to test his claim, which will be hard but I think we've got time to lynch him later if it's still a good idea.

I still want to lynch Rhinox the scum.

[RedCoyote]

Either way, my vote isn't changing. If I had a few days before deadline, I would have taken more time to consider countering vs. not countering

No one here made the decision to reveal your role except you, so any attempt to pass the buck that you may or may not have been insinuating strikes no chord with me, and shouldn't with anyone else, given the reasons why my claim was rightfully delayed.

There is a decent probability of a watcher or doctor for the town which could protect a jailer claim and let them do their work

Funny, when I talked about role probabilities, I was labelled as outguessing the mod. I'll have to see where these statements lead you, bionic.

---

I don't believe RC's claim.

Well pops, I won't expect you to regardless of what my claim was. You put way too much stock into that brilliant one-game meta of yours. XD

---

Where?

Lest you think I am starting some big player-Mod WIFOM, there is a perfectly good reason why we should, why every player should, assume there is an SK before we end this day, or any day, until proven otherwise:

night actions

.

There's no reason why we should be naive about the situation. I think it's very safe to say that it's probable there is an SK, and every townie should play like there is another scum out there.

I don't want to push this situation much further

, but suffice to say

I think some people

(certainly I)

would treat the game differently if there are 2 killing parties as opposed to 1.

(emphasis added).

[bionicchop2]

Either way, my vote isn't changing. If I had a few days before deadline, I would have taken more time to consider countering vs. not countering

No one here made the decision to reveal your role except you, so any attempt to pass the buck that you may or may not have been insinuating strikes no chord with me, and shouldn't with anyone else, given the reasons why my claim was rightfully delayed.

I may have made the same decision to reveal regardless. The decision was mine, but I would have appreciated more time. My deciding factor was I did not anybody to overvalue your claimed role when contrasting it against your play during the day - which I find very scummy obviously. I have only seen the delayed claim (where a claim request was denied) once. That person was scum, so there is a precedent for scum to act how you did.

As for 'rightfully delayed', your 2nd reason listed for delaying the claim occurred after you had already delayed and prior to your actual claim.

There is a decent probability of a watcher or doctor for the town which could protect a jailer claim and let them do their work

Funny, when I talked about role probabilities, I was labelled as outguessing the mod. I'll have to see where these statements lead you, bionic.

Outguessing the mod is along the lines of "if we have X role, then we have Y role for sure". I am simply being optimistic that one of the 2 alternate protective roles (outside of jailer) listed as possible, we have 1. I also wanted to at least state the possibility to ward scum from killing me. Juicy WIFOM tidbits for them to consider at night which could also possibly prevent me from being roleblocked (beware the watcher!). If I have a visitor and the person I tried to jail ended up dead, then we have snared a roleblocker.

[SpyreX]

Well, huh.

I really doubt that there are actually TWO jailers in this setup (although I wouldn't put it 100% past Vi).

Funny thing is, I knew RC was going to claim a PR, and I more likely than not expected it to be jailer. However...

Now I dont know what to think. If RC flips town Bio is going up the creek so it makes very little sense for that 1-1 trade. It does make sense in reverse though - a 1-1 is, in most cases, worth it for the town.

Well, hells bells, I was as wrong as you can be about RC I guess.

Unvote, Vote: RedCoyote

I'll check back in but it all but has to be one of these two today.

[Rhinox]

Well I believe Bio's CC - no reason for scum to counter just to get to myslynch a jailer. I also don't like how OGML immediately jumped in suggesting 2 jailers... I guess its theoretically possible, but its not a role I would expect more than 1 of. I think its a more powerful role than pops is making it out to be.

I think spy's vote puts RC at L-1. If there are no objections, I'll place the hammer vote. I have an hour before I might not have access until after deadline, so I'll hammer by 3:45 EST (GMT -5:00) unless people are begging me to wait, or somebody else hammers first.

[iamausername]

1a)

username's awkward shift from this,

You ask people to claim at L-1 as a last resort to save themselves from a lynch. If they claim vanilla, then they give you no reason not to go ahead with the lynch, so they should be hammered immediately. You don't want to then go and wagon someone else to a claim, because that could lead to a power role being outed completely unnecessarily.

to this,

More specifically, vote for RedCoyote.

which gave me somewhat of a shock. Certainly if there is any silver lining to my claim for day one, this contradiction would likely be it.

Except Rhinox was not asked to claim at L-1, he was at L-3 and claimed totally unprovoked. Which makes his lynch a better choice than it would have been without the claim, but not absolutely the only correct choice. Which I said quite clearly, in the very next paragraph of the post that you took that quote from. I don't know how you missed that. I also don't know why it would be at all shocking that I am advocating your lynch when I haven't stopped voting you since I made that vote on page 9. And you accuse

pops

of not paying attention.

Just got out of the car after a grueling 23 straight hours, and hey look a claim from RC that makes perfect sense. Can we get this Rhinox lynch going for reals now?

Weren't you voting Rhinox over RC purely because you thought he was a scum power role, but that both were scum? What happened to that?

If there are no objections, I'll place the hammer vote.

No objections here.