Newbie 1889: Ice Cream (Game Over)

[Skygazer]

Anyone who votes Sky before people get on board with the night action plan are either playing poorly or are scum.

wanna take a wild guess at which one i am?

[volxen]

OK... Sky just self-hammered herself. The five people voting for Sky are: Volxen, NotNova, Ceejay, Reundo, and Sky.

If Sky flips scum, I will target

xwing

tonight. If Sky is scum, I still believe the scumteam is either Sky/xwing or Sky/NotNova, with the former being more likely than the latter.

[CheekyTeeky]

Oh...if sky self-hammered I'm pretty sure that's a scumclaim.

[xwing]

OK... Sky just self-hammered herself. The five people voting for Sky are: Volxen, NotNova, Ceejay, Reundo, and Sky.

If Sky flips scum, I will target

xwing

tonight. If Sky is scum, I still believe the scumteam is either Sky/xwing or Sky/NotNova, with the former being more likely than the latter.

you're wrong about me, but i'll wait and see what action scum will do..
if notnova is scum, i've been hoodwinked bad..but let's see..

[volxen]

OK... Sky just self-hammered herself. The five people voting for Sky are: Volxen, NotNova, Ceejay, Reundo, and Sky.

If Sky flips scum, I will target

xwing

tonight. If Sky is scum, I still believe the scumteam is either Sky/xwing or Sky/NotNova, with the former being more likely than the latter.

you're wrong about me, but i'll wait and see what action scum will do..
if notnova is scum, i've been hoodwinked bad..but let's see..

Who do you think is Sky's scum partner?

[volxen]

Actually, I would like anyone who pops into the thread before the mod locks it to share who they think Sky's potential scum partner is so we have as much information going into day 3 as possible.

[xwing]

hmmm i'd still think it's ceej, and my belief is we're in C2..
what were the chances that on D1 we would out both PRs..
scum!ceej knew you were likely to jail him so asked partner!sky to submit kill..
also explains why supposed doc!ceej still alive..
cuz if we're on A2, safer play will be to sure kill doc and block JK to ensure one PR kill..but WIFOM..
cuz your scenario A seems plausible as well..

if we're on A2, i really am not sure who to point out..
by gut alone my skin is breaking into hives with CT..just too towny..
but really though, the rest are town for me other than ceej really..sorry im not much help..i need to read ISOs but cant do that until later this evening..

[volxen]

hmmm i'd still think it's ceej, and my belief is we're in C2..
what were the chances that on D1 we would out both PRs..
scum!ceej knew you were likely to jail him so asked partner!sky to submit kill..
also explains why supposed doc!ceej still alive..
cuz if we're on A2, safer play will be to sure kill doc and block JK to ensure one PR kill..but WIFOM..
cuz your scenario A seems plausible as well..

if we're on A2, i really am not sure who to point out..
by gut alone my skin is breaking into hives with CT..just too towny..
but really though, the rest are town for me other than ceej really..sorry im not much help..i need to read ISOs but cant do that until later this evening..

So basically if Sky flips mafia goon you think her partner is Ceej, and if she flips mafia roleblocker you think her partner is CT?

[Reundo]

It would be a bit weird for scum!sky to give herself no outs at all since she'd know she'd be the JK target once volxen claimed his save (unless she tried to kill volxen but somehow didn't roleblock ceejay, which doesn't make any sense at all), but then again the fact she was the one pushing the "lynch the JK target no matter what" angle the hardest and she just so happened to be the JK target as well is too coincidental for my tastes.

Theory situation;

Scum Sky is the roleblocker.
He targets the Doc.
His partner goes for the kill on the JKer.
No kill happens.
If I was Sky, I'd play the day about like they did - preparing to help lynch my buddy to look town.


Why do you find that scenario so unlikely and feel that Sky's play suggests town alignment?

I literally never said that her play suggests town alignment. I even said that her pushing the "lynch JK target no matter what" angle while also being the JK target herself was too coincidental, which suggests I thought she leans scum overall.

My top picks for scum are {Thor, ceejay}. xwing is a very strong tr for me, and I don't really see an xwing/sky pairing at all. NotNova and CheekyTeeky are solid trs as well -- NotNova is a bit less solid for me but I really don't think NotNova's the answer here either.

[volxen]

Also in case I do die tonight, I just want to go on record saying that I do

NOT

think any of these scumteam combinations are likely at all:

Sky/CT
Sky/Thor

Because either of those scumteam combinations would mean that my wagon was all-town, as the four people on my wagon were NotNova, xwing, Ceejay, and Reundo. I find it extremely unlikely that the four-person wagon against me was an all-town wagon.

Sky/Ceejay is possible, but I think it's probably not the case because remember that Horror went out of his way to vote for UC on day 1 when he wrote his "catch up" post:

I'm reading the game through right now and I'll be commenting on my thoughts as I go in a stream of consciousness dialogue style. I'm almost certainly going to be rehashing some things were already covered and explained, but as mafia is a game largely based on reactions, I believe in being as transparent as possible regarding what I'm thinking as I read the thread.

- UC's 16 really confuses me. The vote and unvote is purely semantic, and his entire intro to the game is "I want to vote for Thor because he scares me but I don't want to actually apply pressure to him right now."
- I like Thor's early push for an RVS wagon. While I personally am not great at RVS analysis, being able to get an early wagon on someone allows us to gauge the overall gamestate and test reactions, thereby allowing us to move out of RVS and into the game at hand.
- In the same breath, I dislike Thor's comment about claiming that you don't want to lynch someone on page 1 is in any way AI [alignment indicative]. Yes, you want to place a vote on the person you would like to be lynched

eventually

, but there's definitely nothing wrong with saying that you don't want to lynch someone right this second when the game is a few hours old. ***Slight interjection as I'm about halfway through the thread - this is one of the aforementioned "hashed to death" issues in this game and further discussion of it would likely be inconsequential at this point in the game, but that was my first thought when I read this post.***
- Volxen gets town points for 21

Reundo can confirm we are in fact, not scum partners.

This reads as potentially buddying to me.
- I'm really not a fan of xwing's 27. The reasoning for hopping on Thor's wagon seem very forced, even going so far as to admit it's a sheep of Reundo and RC's case.
- (Quick side note, I actually really appreciate that this game appears to be more content driven without the spamposting that is the meta on most other parts of the site.)
- 41 looks like xwing trying to drum up reasoning for being on the wagon after being called out for their initially weak vote. I also don't like that they admit they would be voting elsewhere except that they wanted to put Thor at L-1. I'm a fan of early wagons, but when you're on page 2 I feel that there's nothing you would get from an L-1 vote that you wouldn't get from L-2, so intentionally joining the wagon is suspicious to me.

Looking at the wagon again, unlike RCE, I think it lost momentum over time and don't see any particular reason to suspect him.

I disagree with this. The wagon was still at L-1 at this point with at least 3 slots (mine, UC, and the one currently being replaced) without a single serious post in the game. I don't know how you can properly judge the wagon with over 1/3 of the game inactive.

Your second point is semantics. Yes that is exactly what a conversation is, yes you are swaying player A's vote in both examples. That's manipulation if it pushes your agenda.

Pointing out here that town have an agenda as well - their agenda is to lynch scum. Scum is more likely to intentionally use misinformation to get town to mislynch, but that doesn't mean that a misguided townie can't do the same thing unintentionally. The best way to sort these actions is to sort

how

they're conversing, and you learn a lot more about those interactions after a flip.
- xwing's 90 feels genuine to me, as if they genuinely realize they made a mistake hopping on Thor's wagon without much explanation. Whether it's remorseful town or backtracking scum is to be determined.
- Initially thor/RC is reading as tvt.

what kind of pressure do you expect me to put on UC? have you read my rock solid case on him? (hmm maybe not yet but you will later..continue reading til the later pages).. i leaned scum on him on what..page 2..on why..his first post..do you think he will be pressured if i put my vote on him now? do you think others will be convinced and follow suit? honestly?
now it's more like im waiting for him to speak/address my question..when he comes back then i can engage with him more..

The thing is, it's honestly a pretty suspicious thing for you to not be voting for your strongest scumread at the moment. There's no such thing as a pressureless vote, and it's advantageous for town to use their vote with this knowledge in mind. Will you voting for UC cause people to suddenly drop everything and lolwagon him? Probably not. But your decision to pressure one of the inactive slots would at the very least be consistent with some of the reads you've posted so far, and it has the potential to get other players to look at the slot more in depth.

Frankly though, if you're town aren't you basically game throwing right now and being a jerk to all your fellow town team by not bothering to read posts to help catch a scum member or figure out a town member?

In xwing's defense, they have stated that this is their 2nd game on the site, and it's already far more in depth and requires a lot more attention than I would say is standard for a newbie game. Even I've had to resort to some skimming to help get through my readthrough - I don't think you necessarily have to read and absorb every word of a game to be able to play decently.

HEY YAY I'M CAUGHT UP ON THE THREAD.

I'm probably going to be doing some ISO reads and other things tomorrow to help me sort my thoughts on the game as a whole, but for right now

UNVOTE:
VOTE: UC Voyager

I'm okay pushing this button and seeing what comes out. There are some interesting associatives with xwing that I want to explore as well, so I would be good with a wagon on either right now.

[Reundo]

Also in case I do die tonight, I just want to go on record saying that I do

NOT

think any of these scumteam combinations are likely at all:

Sky/CT
Sky/Thor

Because either of those scumteam combinations would mean that my wagon was all-town, as the four people on my wagon were NotNova, xwing, Ceejay, and Reundo. I find it extremely unlikely that the four-person wagon against me was an all-town wagon.

I don't think it's that unlikely that the wagon on you was all town. It would be a bit strange, yes, but to completely write off CT and Thor based on the VC of a single wagon is a bit pre-mature.

[xwing]

hmmm i'd still think it's ceej, and my belief is we're in C2..
what were the chances that on D1 we would out both PRs..
scum!ceej knew you were likely to jail him so asked partner!sky to submit kill..
also explains why supposed doc!ceej still alive..
cuz if we're on A2, safer play will be to sure kill doc and block JK to ensure one PR kill..but WIFOM..
cuz your scenario A seems plausible as well..

if we're on A2, i really am not sure who to point out..
by gut alone my skin is breaking into hives with CT..just too towny..
but really though, the rest are town for me other than ceej really..sorry im not much help..i need to read ISOs but cant do that until later this evening..

So basically if Sky flips mafia goon you think her partner is Ceej, and if she flips mafia roleblocker you think her partner is CT?

half correct..
so if sky flips goon, my top partner is ceej..
if sky flips RB, im gonna go with thor by PoE..he's the one i cant read..

notnova, reundo and CT are strong town..
im just not sure why my gut is wrenching at CT but objectively i find her town..

noted on your thoughts re horror posts and "all-town" wagon..

[NotNova]

I've been preparing to move out of town for uni again, so I haven't had too much time to think about what's been happening in the game.

That said, xwing's most likely to be scum in my eyes. They've been conveniently going along with the stream for the majority of the game and the interactions between Sky and xwing in hindsight look a little weird. I've been super wary of ceejay as well considering, but I'm unsure of the viability of a possible fakeclaim — it's super hard for me to assess its theoretical benefits and viability.

Again, I'm really sure about either of these reads and I haven't given them all too much thought, but I'll try to reread and give a more solid take whenever D3 rolls around. There are still a lot of interactions from D1 I have to consider that are hars to assess considering how drawn-out the entire day was.

I realize none of this is super helpful and I want to apologize — the end of D1 and all of D2 have been really confusing and chaotic for me and I've lost a fair bit of confidence in my play as a result. I'll try to make more of an effort to clear things up for myself, for now it's hard for me to know what to think.

[volxen]

These are my final thoughts that I want to leave everyone with in case I'm not around for day 3:

- If Sky flips scum (99.99% chance of that happening with the self-hammer),

I will target

xwing

tonight

. On the 00.01% chance she self-hammered as town, then I will go with my gut regarding who I target.

- As far as I am concerned,

Sky flipping scum means that CT and Thor are both confirmed town

. I just don't think it's plausible that the wagon against me on day 1 was an all-town wagon, considering how close I came to being lynched. Yes, I feel that strongly about this.

This means there are really four possible scumteams. Here is how I would rank them from most likely to least likely:

1. Sky/xwing
2. Sky/NotNova
3. Sky/Ceejay*
4. Sky/Reundo**

*If Sky flips mafia roleblocker, we can completely clear Ceejay as confirmed doctor as that would prove that there is a doctor in this setup, and no one has counter-claimed Ceejay on being doctor. Any doctor counter-claim on day 3 would be

HIGHLY

suspect, because the real doctor should have already counter-claimed if CJ is in fact lying about being doctor.

**This is possible, but I would think that if the scumteam is Sky/Reundo, then Reundo rather than Sky would have attempted to nightkill me on night 1, considering that I listed Reundo as a townread on day 1, whereas I listed Sky as a nullread:

@RCEnigma,

I’m not seeing what is so grounded about NotNova’s case against me. He really brought up two valid points against me:

1) That I didn’t have an early game reads list
2) That I had a period of inactivity

And those two things are equally applicable to all of the other lurker slots: Ceejay[UC], Sky[Horror], and Angel. But it’s as if he is holding me to a different standard than everyone else, because he has chosen to ignore the other lurker slots rather than taking the more equitable approach of presenting cases against all four of us.

If his theory is that it is very likely that one or even both members of the scumteam are among the lurkers, then how is it possibly the most logical approach to tunnel on one out of those four slots and completely ignore the other three? Even if he suspects me the most, should he not have made an effort to engage and question/pressure the other three lurker slots? Admittedly in the case of Angel this would be impossible since that slot has not checked in, but he has had ample opportunities to start seriously engaging/questioning/pressuring the Sky[Horror] and CeeJay[UC] slots. Especially in the case of Ceejay, who has been UC’s replacement for a while now, yet he has made no effort engage, question, or pressure him. In 260, he basically says that the best usage of his limited time to is death tunnel on my slot and ignore all of the other lurker slots because he doesn’t have an unlimited amount of time to devote to this game (as if any of us do).

For example, in 70 he asks me for a readslist. Why has he not asked the same of the Sky[Horror] and Ceejay[UC] slots? This is one of his two major points against me, yet he is unwilling to be equally critical of their slots for not having early game readslists.

His lynch pool also seems to be {Volxen, Volxen, Volxen, and more Volxen}. I haven’t seen him list the name of anyone else that he would seriously consider lynching. And we are on day 1 of a nine-player game that has two scum slots. And I seriously doubt anyone has uncovered the exact scum team, so at this point in time wouldn’t it be reasonable to expect NotNova to have at least 3 serious scumreads anyways? The only two people he has mentioned as scumreads are myself and xwing, and in 223, he said that xwing is “far below Volxen” on his list of scumreads, so I’m not even sure at this point how serious of a scumread xwing is for him.

Meanwhile, while it did come late, I did clearly list four scumreads in 258. To be more specific, this is how I am currently sorting everyone:

Town: {RCEnigma,

Reundo

, Thor}. Out of these three I feel the most confident about RC being town, but I really suspect that Reundo and Thor are both town as well. If either Reundo or Thor are scum they are doing an incredibly good job of covering up their agenda, because nothing in their interactions (with each other as well as with everyone else) or individual ISO’s stands out to me as being likely to be scum motivated.

Null: {

Sky[Horror]

}. This slot would be a scumread for me if Horror hadn’t made that catch-up post in 155, which was a fairly decent catch-up post.

I still think it’s possible that the Sky[Horror] slot could be scum

, but I think scum is much more likely to be residing among {NotNova, xwing, Ceejay[UC], and Angel}. For now the Sky[Horror] slot is null until I see more content from Sky.

Scum: {NotNova, xwing, Ceejay[UC], and Angel}. I already talked about these four slots in 258.

Ironically, even though he does have a lot more content than I did in the beginning of the game, I am currently taking a much more holistic and open-minded approach to this game than he is. He is insistent on death tunneling me, whereas I have shared a total of four scumreads, any of whom I would be OK with lynching. To be perfectly clear, that means my lynch pool is {NotNova, xwing, Ceejay[UC], and Angel}. I wouldn’t be adamantly opposed to a Sky[Horror] lynch, but I believe that any of my four scumreads would be a better lynch.

One of my biggest concerns regarding NotNova is that if he is in fact town, he is setting himself up to look unnecessarily scummy with my mislynch (if I am lynched on day 1) going into day 2. Let me put it this way:

Scenario 1:
A = NotNova death tunnels Volxen
B = NotNova ignores the other lurker slots (Sky[Horror], Ceejay[UC], and Angel)
C = Volxen is mislynched day 1
D = scumteam has a much easier time scumpainting NotNova on day 2

A+B+C=D

If I am mislynched on day 1, NotNova is undoubtedly going to take heat for my mislynch, because it is a wagon that he has started, and he has been very forcefully pushing for me to be lynched today. Xwing has also tunneled on me to some extent lately, but no one else on my wagon has been death tunneling me the way NotNova has been. He has been death tunneling me and ignoring the other lurker slots, period. So if I am mislynched and flip town, it’s not exactly going to be hard for the scumteam to start making the argument that NotNova was pushing a scum agenda with my mislynch (and possibly push for NotNova own mislynch on day 2). They could make similar arguments to what I have been making – that he has been highly inconsistent in his push against me while completely ignoring the other lurker slots. The difference is that at that point I would be confirmed town, so the point about him being inconsistent becomes even more valid. And his whole theory that scum is likely to be among the lurkers won’t be a valid defense for him to fall back on, because of his singular focus on only one out of the four lurker slots (and the one with the most content out of the four to boot).

Scenario 2:

A= NotNova equally focuses on all four lurker slots (Volxen, Sky[Horror], Ceejay[UC], and Angel)
B = Volxen happens to be one out of the four lurker slots that is chosen to be lynched
C= Volxen is mislynched day 1
D= scumteam has a much harder time scumpainting NotNova on day 2

A+B+C=D

If this

were

the case, this would be the much better scenario for NotNova going into day 2, because it’s going to be more difficult for the scumteam to scumpaint paint him (and push for his mislynch on day 2) if he were equally pressuring all four of (Volxen, Sky[Horror], Ceejay[UC], and Angel) and I just happened to be the one that was lynched. He could defend himself by falling back on his theory that scum is likely to be among the lurkers (Volxen, Sky[Horror], Ceejay[UC], and Angel). It then becomes harder for the scumteam to suggest that NotNova was pushing a scum agenda, because they have to attack his entire premise (that scum are more likely to be among the lurkers) in order to do that.

The problem is that scenario 1 is the current reality. His lynch pool should in theory be {Volxen, xwing, Sky[horror], Ceejay[UC], and Angel}: all of the lurkers plus xwing, since xwing is apparently still a scumread for him. But the only person he has any interest in lynching is me.

Either he has an incredibly narrow-minded and short-sighted town game for day 1 (death tunnel one suspect and ignore all of the other lurker slots) or he is simply scum. If he is town, I would encourage him to start taking a more holistic and open-minded approach to this game so that his death tunneling of me cannot be used against him by the scumteam. Because believe it or not, the most important thing to me is that town wins this game. Of course, I don’t want to be mislynched, but what would be worse than my mislynch is if my mislynch is followed by NotNova himself getting mislynched on day 2 because he inadvertently makes himself look scummy with how hard he death tunneled on me to the exclusion of all else on day 1.

Seriously @NotNova, you need to start taking a more holistic and open-minded view of the game, and you need to start doing that now. Yes, I get it I am your top suspect, but you are aware that there are two scum slots in this game, and you are also not 100% confident of your scumread of me. At this point in the game you should, at a minimum, have 3 serious scumreads, and you should be willing to vote for any of them.

It's possible they just forgot about this and figured that it didn't matter which of Reundo or Sky put the kill through. Still, Reundo is a very observant and analytical player, so I don't think he would have forgotten that I listed him as a townread and Sky as a nullread, and the logical play would be for my townread (Reundo) to try to kill me rather than my nullread (Sky). Especially since I even said here that I thought Sky could be scum despite listing her as a nullread at the time.

[Thor665]

I agree that CT is pretty objectively town.
I don't dislike the theory that Horror wouldn't bus like he did on CJ, but frankly CJ isn't being lynched tomorrow anyway barring claiming a protect on other than Volxen so it is relatively a meaningless realization for me.
I dodn't think Reundo makes a lot of sense as a scumpartner unless Sky does flip roleblocker - at that stage Reundo is in the running for me because of him being very mindful to put Sky on L-1 to help the self hammer.

[Thor665]

Anyone who votes Sky before people get on board with the night action plan are either playing poorly or are scum.

wanna take a wild guess at which one i am?

I should also probably say you played this right, so good work for your teammate.
Your're kind of being caught out by a slow mod though

[Skygazer]

yeah that was kind of unfortunate :p

[MarioManiac4]

Votecount 2.1

Skygazer (5) - volxen, NotNova, ceejayvinoya, Reundo, Skygazer
ceejayvinoya (2) - CheekyTeeky, xwing

Not Voting (1)- Thor665

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2018-09-30 03:35:17).

[MarioManiac4]

Skygazer,

Mafia Goon,

was lynched on Day 2!

Night 2 begins now and ends in (expired on 2018-09-27 12:10:58). Please send in any night actions before then.

[MarioManiac4]

NotNova,

Vanilla Townie,

was killed on Night 2!

[MarioManiac4]

Votecount 3.0

Not Voting (6)- xwing, CheekyTeeky, volxen, Reundo, ceejayvinoya, Thor665

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2018-10-04 12:26:17).

[Thor665]

I'd like to hear who was jailed.

@Mod - I am a HUGE ice cream pick fan

[Thor665]

Thor665

(4) -

horrordude0215

, Reundo, RCEnigma, xwing

NotNova

(1) -

volxen

RCEnigma (1) -

Thor665

xwing (1) -

NotNova

Not Voting (2) -

Haylen

,

Ceejay

Ceejay

(4) -

Thor665

,

horrordude0215

, xwing,

volxen

Thor665

(1) - Reundo

volxen

(1) -

NotNova

Not Voting (3) -

Haylen

, RCEnigma,

ceejayvinoya

volxen

(4) - NotNova,

ceejayvinoya

, xwing, Reundo

ceejayvinoya

(2) -

Thor665

,

volxen

angel7399

(1) - RCEnigma

Not Voting (2) -

Haylen

,

Skygazer

Haylen

(5) - Reundo, xwing, NotNova,

ceejayvinoya

,

Skygazer

ceejayvinoya

(2) -

Thor665

,

volxen

NotNova

(1) -

Haylen

Not Voting (1) - CheekyTeeky

Skygazer

(5) -

volxen

,

NotNova

,

ceejayvinoya

, Reundo,

Skygazer

Ceejay

(2) - CheekyTeeky, xwing

Not Voting (1)-

Thor665

[Thor665]

Reundo really feels like a logistically likely to me scum due to wagon positioning across the board.
Xwing and Ceejay are also suspect.

Not feeling totally confident on Reundo due to thinking he's just a prickly sort who let himself play b;ind this game - maybe I'm wrong and my initial scumread is accurate, but that's where I'm at with that slot.
Still kind of like the logic clearing Ceejay due to the Horror bus - and in any case, as long as scum wants to play the "theory roleblock" game I'm content to play that.

Pretty much want to flip xwing today unless he was jailed in which case we can "theory" clear him for endgame with Ceejay. (if people are confused by this please ask and I'll walk through it on the presumption I'm dead prior to endgame). If xwing was jailed I'd say it's a debate between RCE and Reundo, I'd probably opt to flip Reundo since I feel less confident there.

[xwing]

hi thor..asking for enlightenment please..need to be sure i understand what you're saying..
volxen mentioned that he jailed me, but let's wait for confirmation from him..

if we're in setup A where we have mafia RB, jailing RB!xwing doesn't mean anything coz i can simply block volxen and still do a night kill..

if we're on setup C im virtually cleared, and i will lynch ceej..prob is we dont know which setup we are in..

do you guys think we're likely in setup A2 more than C2?
im starting to think we're in A2, and im starting to believe ceej claim coz of horror/sky votes..but the thought of being in C2 is still bugging me so bad..

horror did put UC/ceej to L-1, and sky put ceej to L-1 as well..could be a bus, but i felt the intent (at least from sky) to really lynch ceej was real..too much for a bus (but WIFOM??)..that's why im leaning on believing ceej..

im not sure who to think as scum now..leaning on CT/thor..
CT being one of sky's strong town reads (other one is reundo)..
thor being just unreadable for me..

im fine if town would want to flip me to gain info on my alignment and possible associations..but for the record im town..i will go with this only if we can ensure we can catch the last scum after my lynch by PoE..

how many times can town afford a mislynch at this stage, assuming nightly kills?