Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: No lynch

[Eragon]

why did you think you might die is my question here

[Jingle]

the mime is now literally always a legitimate threat in this game specifically because you all lynched lane - we're absolutely not just no lynching until endgame. I want the hands of town's win chances in consensus and information driven by votes/wagons, not one town killing power. and you're completely ignoring advantage of a vig claim w/ watcher protect is a conftown. and 50% of instant loss is also 50% of instant win if we lynch the other mafia first

Vig has a 2/9 shot of hitting mafia, a 1/9 shot of hitting mime, and a 1/9 shot of hitting watcher.
Mafia have a 1/8 shot of hitting vig, a 1/8 shot of hitting watcher and a 1/8 shot of hitting mime.
Lynch has a 2/8 shot of hitting mafia, a 1/8 shot of literally losing the game outright, and a 4/10 shot of outing town power. Which we need. To deal with the mime.

No Lynch is clearly superior today.

[GuiltyLion]

@Eragon because I'm historically a threat to scum and my low activity play means I'd be a low information kill to the town with decent chance of being PR

[RockyHorror]

I'm not upset about the night kills as well, but I also was surprised to see Thor live through the night with how hard he was pushing lane over anyone else.

this feels like vig-fishing and empty shade - do you think Thor is lane's mime partner, yes or no?

The vig fishing wasn't intended, though I do see why the post pinged you that way. To answer your question, I'm thinking it's certainly a possibility, though I admit there's a fair bit of WIFOM as to whether a mime would bus as hard as Thor did.

Jingle no one elected you town leader

vig being deduced with no guaranteed watch protect is pretty clearly worst case scenario, objectively. vig claiming with watcher protect is far better. so you can disagree with the utility of a vig claim but nothing I said is wrong at all

Yeah, but posting No. Is literally the least letters I have to type to convey the message: "This is an objectively terrible idea and the vig shouldn't claim until I have a chance to explain why."

I agree with this. Vig claim would be horrible right now.

[Jingle]

The night 1 kill was pretty much always going to be one of {GL, me, Thor, A50} because of player hype.

[Jingle]

For clarity, I'm not saying we're better than everyone else. I'm saying we have reputations as being particularly scary town players (deserved or not) and current site meta is "Shoot people who are good at town early."

[RockyHorror]

With one mime down and that win condition now posing a serious threat to everyone else in the game, wouldn't both vig and mafia be mime shooting?

[Jingle]

We do still have to come to a consensus over the three possibilities Watcher wise.

Watcher outs if they have useful information.
Watcher hypoclaim.
Watcher holds cards close to chest regardless and we pray for mafia to miss.

I oppose option three, personally and endorse option 2, but it is theoretically a valid course of action. Very high risk, possibly very high reward. If we commit to one of the courses, everyone needs to agree to abide by it.

Otherwise, we should no lynch until mime or vig dies. Watcher outs guilties on mafia immediately after tonight, because tonight is the only night where there is likely to be such an obvious vig/scum split on the kill. Watcher outs guilties on mime if the vig dies. Boring game, but it should go fast considering there's little to talk about during the day and KMD supports ending nights early with unanimous agreement. Also, I'd like to request that scum plan their choices of kills and RBs during the day so we can have as short a nightphase as possible, just for the sake of town player's sanities.

[Jingle]

If we go with my plan, mafia won't be mime shooting, they'll be watcher shooting. The hilarious thing though is that mime/PR/mafia all play to be bad nightkills, so telling the difference between them is notoriously hard, increasing the chance that mafia accidentally kill the mime.

[Eragon]

I agree with no lynching

[Sesq]

ok i forgot about this game for like ... i dont know how many days. if i cant even remember to open this game when its in my pinned tabs i dont deserve to take up a player slot.

replace me out fella

[Sesq]

and im sorry for being low-effort

[FA_Q2]

^you are dead.....

[FA_Q2]

Eragon, why have Thor as a strong townread when he pushed so hard on lane?

because i dont feel he starts off the game pretty much scumreading 4-5 different people within the first page as scum.


i dont feel really confident at all rn, but even his push on lane felt natural

The constant push on Lane makes it look like the other mime slot. And scumreading half the game is a good idea for mime.

[FA_Q2]

i slept peacefully

well honestly both mime reads/scum reads for me are gone, so im actually happy with those Night kills.

... wtf is this.

Since when does town say they are happy that 2 town slots were killed?

[FA_Q2]

4. mime rb's vig and we find the mime.
5. mafia and mime dont do anything and vigi can shoot

the good sides

6. mafia knowing who the vig is gives them a lot of insight on who may or may not be shot. IOW, a terrible idea all around.

I am good with a no lynch today. Not so good with voting atm as simply ending the day without the interaction to give the vig a decent idea of who to shoot is wasting our one tool.

[Eragon]

i slept peacefully

well honestly both mime reads/scum reads for me are gone, so im actually happy with those Night kills.

... wtf is this.

Since when does town say they are happy that 2 town slots were killed?

when they're my 2 strongest scumreads and them both dying gives me clarity of thought(in a sense)

[Thor665]

We do still have to come to a consensus over the three possibilities Watcher wise.

Watcher outs if they have useful information.
Watcher hypoclaim.
Watcher holds cards close to chest regardless and we pray for mafia to miss.

I oppose option three, personally and endorse option 2, but it is theoretically a valid course of action. Very high risk, possibly very high reward. If we commit to one of the courses, everyone needs to agree to abide by it.

The theory benefit of choosing option 2 over option 1 is that, if Mafia kill the Watcher we still get info if they have useful info.
The reality negative of option 2 over option 1 is it increases the ability of the Mafia to locate the Watcher regardless of the Watcher having useful info.
Wouldn't that make #1 the better option hands down? The only benefit requires the info to be useful to begin with, yeah?
What am I missing.

I'd advocate doing a faux vote where we can at least provide info on who we would lynch today if we were to lynch.

I'd probably be looking to lynch FA_Q today - I think lynching on the wagon makes immense sense and think any Vig and Mafia shots targeted at the wagon would benefit town.

[RockyHorror]

Got a good laugh out of that, sesq. Thank you.

Also good with a no lynch today as well. No one should out anything at this point.

[Thor665]

Got a good laugh out of that, sesq. Thank you.

Also good with a no lynch today as well. No one should out anything at this point.

What if I was a Watcher and had a result - why would you oppose outing that today exactly?

[RockyHorror]

Got a good laugh out of that, sesq. Thank you.

Also good with a no lynch today as well. No one should out anything (aside from a guilty) at this point.

*sigh* EBWOP

[RockyHorror]

I don't like hypoing right now. It gives way too much information to mafia for pretty little reward as an inno at this point only confirms someone as not being a mime.

[RockyHorror]

I think lynching on the wagon makes immense sense

and think any Vig and Mafia shots targeted at the wagon would benefit town.

I agree with the second half of this, but wouldn't lynching on wagon in theory be the most likely way to hit the other mime?

[Thor665]

If you read the sentences before that one wherein I state my intent to discuss who I would hypothetically lynch today then maybe you'd disagree with it less.
Considering I didn't vote...just saying, reading is tech