Shell Game (Day 7)

[Shello and Goodbye]

I don't really like oblivion's take here at all

[Spiffeh]

Me neither

[Shello and Goodbye]

So, it has a few reads with how yesterday went down it wants to discuss. It took time to see how the experience wagon developed and was a little confused.

From the Mason claims, can it ask something? Why did Experience's death feel inevitable upon its re-read? Like, there was obstensibly a counter wagon, but it felt like the whole time it was a waiting room for Experience's death. Do you disagree with this take from it? Because it has a follow up observation about this, if it is felt to be accurate.

Additionally, from Marci, can you explain to it what your view of the deathy is in terms of your reads on the other slots?

Also like : experience's slot was wildly scumread and being pushed by a lot of loud people, and was town. I'm not convince it was 'inevitable' for a lot of thr day, but scum had basically no reason to object to this, and it went through

I don't see how that implies sunflower town at all. At best you can say maybe they're both town and scum didn't care, but i don't think experience flipping town *means* sunflower is town at all

[Shello and Goodbye]

Also like if sunflower is scum, how would yesterday have looked different

[wolfbae]

I woke up with the opinion that the dethy is increasingly deleterious to the gamestate in that it prevents meaningful pressure on most of the playerlist, where a majority of the scum reside. Folks can post words all they like but it's easy to take stances without a threat of elimination attached.

All that is to say I'm ready to move when other people are and don't have much more for the day. unless people have specific questions.

[wolfbae]

Also just from personal experience, if sunflower is mafia, a lot of the people resisting are going to be town. Statistically, that is already true, so I don't know that it says anything meaningful about Sunflower's alignment. (I still think it's possible they are mafia for other reasons). Just keep it in mind if that is the case and don't go hunting to punish people because that probably gets you burned.

[wolfbae]

There's just zero depth of thought to anything you are posting.

Can you explain when you came to this conclusion? From what I recall you were basically cheering me on regarding my Sunflower case Day 2 despite disagreeing with it and you were praising me for my Brian push Day 1.

I understand at the end of Day 2 I was fairly absent, but Day 3 literally started midnight my time and I've been working ever since I've gotten up this morning so have only been able to pop in to the thread here and there. Your complaints about my WIM and having zero depth don't really jive with how you treated me on Day 2.

Was it really the one post you called wolfy?

Ok now I'm gone for real

wolfbae I would like a response to this.

No I had doubts overnight and then tabled them, but seeing that post resurfaced them, so I decided to take a swipe at you

[Save The Dragons]

STD has me as his third lowest read despite town reading (?) me throughout the game

im not super confident about my scumreads/order tbh so i'm not really pushing them until i figure it out better

i suppose i was townreading earlier, though i think i binned you early and stopped paying so much attention to you. 22 or however many is a lot of people to focus on.

i feel a lot of your play this day has been performative including this post just now. the "one. you get one day" looks really planned. the post wolfbae called out as "wolfy" i independently thought was scummy. but im not really confident which is why i wanted to interact with you a little bit.

All of Day 2 people were content to let me unsuccessfully push Sunflower when Experience was an easy redirect and mis-elimination and barely mentioned me whatsoever. I come into toDay doing basically the same thing and there's just a lot more resistance to listening to me or accepting me as Town in general because of a ton of (imo) bad faith arguments?

i discussed this a little with Hermit Crab earlier but i think there was a misconception that "everyone" or nearly everyone was fine with sunflower and experience and we just did experience first because that seemed more likely. That is not true. my choice yesterday in the hood was experience maybe > nobody else. This sudden "wait, i thought we were all aligned with sunflower?" isn't solely a product of people changing their minds (although maybe that's part of it) but simply because a few people have been advocating experience, then sunflower and the rest just wanted experience or were unsure.

[Hermit Crab]

Peta what’s your reads on Dann, Penguin, and firebagel

[wolfbae]

Peta what’s your reads on Dann, Penguin, and firebagel

Dann I think is town, I don't feel like he'd be as much of a curmudgeon as has been as mafia because it doesn't really endear him to most people, I think he's been progressing through ideas in a way tha shows he's really thinking about the game, his take about sunflower/klick being TvT was at least mine from the outside perspective of the game. I thought him getting paranoid of morph was believable in the way he did it as well as the finish where he went "it was probably a mistake to do this". I think when there's a big vocal town player scum are likely to play around them in certain ways and him doing what he did just makes him an enemy at no real gain.

Penguin is like the absolute slightest of townleans off tone and a few things he's said - the bit where he had the "i've thought gypyx was scum for a while becaue of the large normal" is the type of read that

generally

comes more often from town. It's the type of read

I'd

fake as mafia but he's not me. grain of salt, he's not an easy read a lot of the time and hasn't done anything that makes him obvious town yet.

Firebagel no clue, had as mildly +town Night 1 hence the invention but play since then has not inspired a lot of confidence. My thought on pushing STD yesterday was "why would scum do this" but that's really flimsy


This is all really rough off the top of the dome stuff, I haven't tried thinking about how players stack up with each other and looking at big picture stuff, so these are like, 50% confidence at best. If I were to get dayvigged immediately I wouldn't want them sheeped because I haven't put a lot of thought into them.

[Hermit Crab]

Who are you scumreading? I know you e been side eyeing Dunn, spiffs, and Firebringer.

[Hermit Crab]

Also if you don’t mind could you speak to how you think scum would play around a loud town player? In the way that you don’t think Dann is

[Spiffeh]

i feel a lot of your play this day has been performative including this post just now. the "one. you get one day" looks really planned.

Fair enough, because I did catch up, noticed the swath of players scum reading/shading me out of nowhere, and thought that post would be a a fun way to cheekily address that shift!

I then proceeded to explain exactly why I felt the change in the overall view of me felt convenient and sketchy. Do you believe my concerns are unfounded/fabricated?

[wolfbae]

Who are you scumreading? I know you e been side eyeing Dunn, spiffs, and Firebringer.

I genuinely haven't thought about that. I don't think I've suspected Dunn for quite some time, I said that read was cope on D2. Spiffeh I hip-checked because I needed to see more from him if he was town but I'm not really pushing him over it. Firebringer I honestly have no idea on anymore.

I think Luke has potential to be scum but I would give him a chance to actually catch mafia and if he doesn't I would yeet him but that's just like my 2 cents

A lot of how I view the game is going to hinge on Sunflower's alignment, which is where I want to vote today.

Also if you don’t mind could you speak to how you think scum would play around a loud town player? In the way that you don’t think Dann is

In general the formula for that thing is either pocket them or outright avoid them until you NK them. Say nice things, back up their reads, stay in their good graces etc, or just don't talk about them much at all. This varies depending on circumstances and player personality, but most of the time scum players are not willing to directly oppose someone who is vocal and town. I admittedly don't know how Dann plays as scum, my one reference point for him was a game years ago where he clearly didn't have the motivation, but I don't have reason to suspect he's a player who goes against the grain in the hope it will get him townread.

I think in general from an uninformed perspective it's a lot easier to be distrustful of vocal town or someone like marci, where scum are usually going to just TMI those reads and see them only as obvious town

[wolfbae]

me: omg notty please wok with me

notty: okay what are your reads

me: buhhh duhhh guhhh i dunno

[Shello and Goodbye]

I kinda want to townbin peta i think

[Dannflor]

i got shaken on that a tiny bit yesterday

hi can you talk about this

[Hermit Crab]

I have more interesting pool to pursue than sunflower wagon resisters. There like 1 scum at most in there anyway regardless of Sunflower’s alignment.

I just know that this thief role is scum and the pool is literally within non-fullclaimed so

[Sunflower]

i think there's 1 scum in spiffeh/luke/dunn. not really sure who, y'all can figure that out. leaning towards only 1 at this moment but there's been times where i've thought it was 2

why that PoE specifically?

i think they all fall in a similar category to me of meeting the criteria of:

1) has put a decent amount of effort and work into making themselves look good and have a strong position in the game
2) has generally scumsided, particularly assuming brian was bussed which i think is a fairly safe assumption at this point
3) hasn't done anything that is clearing or is especially unlikely of a route for scum to take

i think it's sort of a gamestate read thing but it feels to me like scum are not entirely lacking control in the game. i overcorrected overnight, swinging from "maybe we live in the easy game world" to "we live in the very hard game world" after seeing experience flip, but i think i've settled back to somewhere in the middle. i don't think scum is just in the nullscum slots that everyone would blast through with vig shots if they could because that's never the full answer

[Dannflor]

man I just want to eliminate Cakez

I understand we don't want to right now because mechanical reasons blah blah blah

but I don't believe that guy believes a word he says

[Save The Dragons]

i feel a lot of your play this day has been performative including this post just now. the "one. you get one day" looks really planned.

Fair enough, because I did catch up, noticed the swath of players scum reading/shading me out of nowhere, and thought that post would be a a fun way to cheekily address that shift!

I then proceeded to explain exactly why I felt the change in the overall view of me felt convenient and sketchy. Do you believe my concerns are unfounded/fabricated?

i don't think that's particularly AI

i mean you could be frustrated by the swath as either scum or town

i feel like saying "half the town has noticed my play is scummy!" is a little bit of a weird flex and doesn't address the meat of the issue. Either tackling "is my play actually scummy?" or "are these players mislead and these other people are mafia latching on? (or visa versa)" seems a little more productive than calling it out.

[Sunflower]

i think i like skitter's response on her read on me

i mean i don't really like it that much

but i think it feels like what town!her would think here

[PenguinPower]

I kinda want to townbin peta i think

as you should

[Sunflower]

i got shaken on that a tiny bit yesterday

hi can you talk about this

i don't remember why exactly it just felt like the lighting changed a bit and for a moment it felt plausible to me that you would take this route as scum, and that my read was potentially being biased by the defense against morph + my own scumread of morph

i don't think there was a specific post or anything it was just a thinking about the game overall thing

then i thought about it more and decided that it didn't make sense

[Sunflower]

at this exact moment between the three of spiffeh/luke/dunn i lean towards dunn