mystery box of silver 10. (done)

[Almost50]

DO NOT EXECUTE OUTSIDE THE CONF GROUP UNLESS YOU DENY BASIC MATH OR ARE TRYING TO LOSE THE GAME

I explained the MATHS for you before. It's 33.33% shot in the group and 50% outside if we are using total randomness.

But my question isn't even about that anymore. I want to give the "other" 3P group a good chance to win too, so THAT is why I am considering leaving ddl alive to be D4's elimination.

Your vote is noted though.

ddl (1): sb
shelly/Chemist (0):

Not voting (): MM, mastina, Titus, Nero, Norwee, Bell, Math, S_S, jjh, Pickaxe, Ds, TGP, Taylor, shelly, Chemist, ddl

See how courteous and graceful I am? Even SCUM get to speak their minds in my court.

But I';; even go one step further and say this:

I am more interested in the

theoretical

correct play advice from S_S, mastina & jjh

precisely. Those will have a bit more weight than the other votes.

[superbowl9]

Uhhhh you DID NOT explain that math to me, you explained to me in PT that if you make a read assumption than you have a minorly better chance to hit scum outside the conf block. You might want to check because i believe youve left me out of something

[Bell]

I vote for chemist.

[Almost50]

Agreed that we have an easy DDL elim tomorrow so it makes sense to go within PP/jjh, unless you majorly townread them A50 in which case go DDL.

I already explained I do TR them both, jjh more so. Gamma

shaded

the Ascetic claim, saying it reminded him of what HE did as scum before. That was TOTALLY UNNEEDED shade on a Scum p, and would have been best left unsaid.

Pickaxe was damn too early on Gamma's wagon and stayed the course. It could be, but is unlikely to be an early bus.

[MathBlade]

The math seems wrong but right?

If you’re making the assumption there has to be at least one scum between Shelly and Chemist it works

But then you’re literally assuming what you’re trying to prove.

That is like me doing a list of A50 and going look “100% chance of scum”

That’s not how math works lmao.

#Math can’t shut up

[Almost50]

ddl (1): sb
Chemist (1): Bell,
shelly (0):



Not voting (): MM, mastina, Titus, Nero, Norwee, Math, S_S, jjh, Pickaxe, Ds, TGP, Taylor, shelly, Chemist, ddl

[superbowl9]

So explain this to me real quick. Let’s for some reason say you can assume with 100% certainty the scum distribution is 3-1 in large-confirmed groups. You’re telling me you get to narrow down the big pool to 3/6 because you have townreads but the small group stays at 33% no matter what?? YOU’RE NOT USING CORRECT MATH.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I'm more of an social studies kinda guy. I don't know anything about math tbh.

[MathBlade]

ddl (1): sb
Chemist (1): Bell,
shelly (0):



Not voting (): MM, mastina, Titus, Nero, Norwee, Math, S_S, jjh, Pickaxe, Ds, TGP, Taylor, shelly, Chemist, ddl

Apparently I don’t get a vote either
(Overdramatic comedic tone)
*sniffles*

Fine! Guess I will take my posts and go home. (I am home. Well shit.)

[NorwegianboyEE]

ddl (1): sb
Chemist (1): Bell,
shelly (0):



Not voting (): MM, mastina, Titus, Nero, Norwee, Math, S_S, jjh, Pickaxe, Ds, TGP, Taylor, shelly, Chemist, ddl

Apparently I don’t get a vote either
(Overdramatic comedic tone)
*sniffles*

Fine! Guess I will take my posts and go home. (I am home. Well shit.)

Comedy isn't your strong point is it?

[superbowl9]

When you do math you put in no assumptions or reads. If you want to put in assumptions or reads then you’ve just told us you have a clear DDL elim. If you’re worried about 3P stuff shoot PP. It’s VERY easy and if you fuck this up you WILL be pulling a mastina

[MathBlade]

ddl (1): sb
Chemist (1): Bell,
shelly (0):



Not voting (): MM, mastina, Titus, Nero, Norwee, Math, S_S, jjh, Pickaxe, Ds, TGP, Taylor, shelly, Chemist, ddl

Apparently I don’t get a vote either
(Overdramatic comedic tone)
*sniffles*

Fine! Guess I will take my posts and go home. (I am home. Well shit.)

Comedy isn't your strong point is it?

Not really. That’s why I wanted to make sure people didn’t think it was serious considering my prior serious arguments of the 3Ps hogging the game.

[Almost50]

The math seems wrong but right?

If you’re making the assumption there has to be at least one scum between Shelly and Chemist it works

But then you’re literally assuming what you’re trying to prove.

That is like me doing a list of A50 and going look “100% chance of scum”

That’s not how math works lmao.

#Math can’t shut up

Actually I was making the assumption 3 scums are in Chemist/shelly/Taylor/TGP/DS/Pickaxe, and I now realize my mistake was to count Pickaxe towards BOTH groups (the 3 mod provided and the 6 outside), but he is still by far the weakest DR (if I even could call him a SR), so recalculating it becomes a 100% shot on ddl or a 60% on shelly/Chemist, which is still misleading because I am calling them both utterly confident reads and I am not shooting Taylor/TGP/DS today.

So, it's a choice between (what I personally perceive as) a 100% shot on ddl, or a 75% shot on shelly/Chemist, and the reason I want to take the risk is to secure tomorrow's elimination on the highest of all probability to flip Scum, so that we could keep our allies in the game rather than make their win con harder and possibly a bit more divergent from ours.

It a political move as a well as logical one to me.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Ok, my suggestion is shoot Shelly.
I agree on the premise of securing DDL as an more guaranteed scum elimination for tommorow.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Tbh i'm fine with Chemist too, but Shelly is more dangerous if scum.

[Almost50]

I'm more of an social studies kinda guy. I don't know anything about math tbh.

Is that "Math" McConaughey or Math-U Perry??

[Almost50]

ddl (1): sb
Chemist (1): Bell,
shelly (0):



Not voting (): MM, mastina, Titus, Nero, Norwee, Math, S_S, jjh, Pickaxe, Ds, TGP, Taylor, shelly, Chemist, ddl

Apparently I don’t get a vote either
(Overdramatic comedic tone)
*sniffles*

Fine! Guess I will take my posts and go home. (I am home. Well shit.)

Isn't "Math" short of your handle?

[MathBlade]

I mean yes. If you assume you’re right you’re right.

If I assume 3 scum are your hood at the onset then I get a 100% chance if there being scum in your hood.

It’s circular logic.

If I assume I am the moderator there is a 100% chance of me being the moderator.

Wrong assumptions can lead to false conclusions.

That’s why as superbowl said you don’t assume.

Imho there’s still plenty of ways to get Titus’s hood their wincon.

[Almost50]

When you do math you put in no assumptions or reads. If you want to put in assumptions or reads then you’ve just told us you have a clear DDL elim. If you’re worried about 3P stuff shoot PP. It’s VERY easy and if you fuck this up you WILL be pulling a mastina

Why would I be bloody shooting someone I bloody TOWN READ?

[MathBlade]

ddl (1): sb
Chemist (1): Bell,
shelly (0):



Not voting (): MM, mastina, Titus, Nero, Norwee, Math, S_S, jjh, Pickaxe, Ds, TGP, Taylor, shelly, Chemist, ddl

Apparently I don’t get a vote either
(Overdramatic comedic tone)
*sniffles*

Fine! Guess I will take my posts and go home. (I am home. Well shit.)

Isn't "Math" short of your handle?

(I had voted for DDL execution before that post. )

[MathBlade]

When you do math you put in no assumptions or reads. If you want to put in assumptions or reads then you’ve just told us you have a clear DDL elim. If you’re worried about 3P stuff shoot PP. It’s VERY easy and if you fuck this up you WILL be pulling a mastina

Why would I be bloody shooting someone I bloody TOWN READ?

You wouldn’t but that doesn’t make you right.

You’re putting in the assumption you’re right to justify percentages.

Math is done without reads even if you’d never shoot there.

[superbowl9]

The math seems wrong but right?

If you’re making the assumption there has to be at least one scum between Shelly and Chemist it works

But then you’re literally assuming what you’re trying to prove.

That is like me doing a list of A50 and going look “100% chance of scum”

That’s not how math works lmao.

#Math can’t shut up

Actually I was making the assumption 3 scums are in Chemist/shelly/Taylor/TGP/DS/Pickaxe, and I now realize my mistake was to count Pickaxe towards BOTH groups (the 3 mod provided and the 6 outside), but he is still by far the weakest DR (if I even could call him a SR), so recalculating it becomes a 100% shot on ddl or a 60% on shelly/Chemist, which is still misleading because I am calling them both utterly confident reads and I am not shooting Taylor/TGP/DS today.

So, it's a choice between (what I personally perceive as) a 100% shot on ddl, or a 75% shot on shelly/Chemist, and the reason I want to take the risk is to secure tomorrow's elimination on the highest of all probability to flip Scum, so that we could keep our allies in the game rather than make their win con harder and possibly a bit more divergent from ours.

It a political move as a well as logical one to me.

The whole point of math is that you can’t trust reads. If you shoot outside the conf 3 and hit I will have no complaints. If you miss I am officially pressing the mute button on dumb PT ideas because so far every single one has worked out poorly. I have to pull everyones teeth just to stop trying to make fancy 5head plays

[MathBlade]

I'm more of an social studies kinda guy. I don't know anything about math tbh.

Is that "Math" McConaughey or Math-U Perry??

Alright Alright Alright I guess we’re doing this then lol. (I pick McConaughey I get a nice car ad out of it)

[superbowl9]

When you do math you put in no assumptions or reads. If you want to put in assumptions or reads then you’ve just told us you have a clear DDL elim. If you’re worried about 3P stuff shoot PP. It’s VERY easy and if you fuck this up you WILL be pulling a mastina

Why would I be bloody shooting someone I bloody TOWN READ?

PT info but if you don’t care about that just shoot DDL is what i’ve been telling you

[Almost50]

If I assume 3 scum are your hood at the onset then I get a 100% chance if there being scum in your hood.

On what grounds? I mean, I gave you the premises of my assumptions, so don't argue using a "random" assumption. I want one supported ny evidence for you to make it.