Mafia 31: African - Game over!

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I'm relying on the word of a Mafia COP who had no reason to lie to us.

You've still haven't presented a single logical reason for why Olio would lie to us about investigating you, Why would he throw his life away like that? If he never investigated you why would he claim to have? He clearly already had information about MMCL so why would he have to make up something about you? Why lie and put your life on the line when you don't have to?

Myopia gets guilty/nonguilty results, the Mafia Cop got role information about what the person did, apparently he got the idea that you were scum.

[Yaw]

Vote Count:

vikingfan (1): PookyTheMagicalBear
Dranko20 (1): Otaku376

Not Voting: Assasin, big_kahunia, CoolBot, Dranko20, Maximumum, MMCL, Myopia, Quailman, Uraj45, vikingfan

If there's anyone you want me to prod, let me know.

[Myopia]

Anyone want to way in on vikingfans point about an insane cops results on someone with investigative immunity?

Ill admit I assumed that a cop would receive a result filtered through the cops sanity on a godfather (ie an insane cop would receive a guilty and a sane cop an innocent).

Anyone know how this has been treated in past games?

I agree with pooky's point (and indeed stated it myself earlier) that it does seem odd that olio would lie about vikingsfan to gain just one more day.

I also agree that 2 3 person scum groups is more likely than 4 person scum groups. Although of course that is still uncertain.

However I think we also need to take into account the fact that:
- olio was close to lynch and rather desperate;
- the reasons for his bandwagon essentially came down to his attacks on vikinsfan - a claim that did not include a reason for vikingsfan to be guilty was likely just going to lead to a lynch anyway;
- we simply just dont know who olio investigated day 1;
- personally (and this is very subjective) if I was scum with a mafia cop role I dont think I would pick vikingsfan day 1.

Lastly as a game balance issue I just think it more likely that either both godfathers would have investigative immunity or neither would.

In summary, pooky has made some good points. Frankly the town probably can afford to miss a lynch at this point if we have a reasonably suspicion that vikingsfan is guilty.

Personally though I previously made the mistake of overvauling the changes of talitha having an investigative immunity and argued for the wrong lynch. Im just not that keen about lynching someone who I received an innocent result on based on the testimony of a dead mafia.

Accordingly Id rather move through the list of uninvestigated people and come back to vikingsfan first if we still cant find our remaining mafia.

Lastly while I think any cultists at this point will certainly be trying to keep the mafia alive to maximise their chances at winning I have an innocent on pooky as well and think it unlikely he is cult.

[big_kahunia]

Why would Olio lie to us about whether you are scum or not? he is the LAST member of his family which means that getting by one day is NOT going to help his cause since he would be lynched the next day if you are shown to be innocent.

Basically, we can’t take any of olio’s results are valid. He could be making up stuff or telling the truth. No way to tell. So the best thing to do is drop it. In the cases of MMCL and Max, olio appears to have told the truth.

Coolbot, why do you think we have mafia groups of 4 each? I know there were four different roles, but I agree w/ Pooky on the 1 godfather, 1 ability and 1 goon set up. We shouldn’t limit ourselves though.

The fact is, though, he found me GUILTY. That rules out being a godfather. Look at his results

Not really. Since, Myopia is insane, I would expect him to find the godfather as “guilty”.

I think at this stage we lynch out of the list of those who havent been investigated. I can confirm an innocent each night (or find our last scum) and the scum cant kill enough confirmed innocents to survive unless they can neturalise the doc.

The sole downside to this plan of course is if our last scum is/are investigative immune.

That is a possible downside, but with one godfather, we’ll have some innocents.

Not if you can clear out the cultists in the process-we haven't nailed any of them yet.

Cultish mechanics varied greatly from mod to mod, since no one cult set-up is engraved in stone. Some games have the cult recruits returning to the town side after the recruiters die. Others where the recruits are their own group. It’s hard to say what to look for.

For what it’s worth, I think MMCL is innocent, no question.

[MMCL]

That's cos I am innocent.

Reading up now, and making notes.... scum could you please lift some signs in the time Im reading...

[Maximumum]

Who then do you think we should lynch at this point?

I don't think olio would have risked giving the town a false quilty investigation that would have only bought him a day if we had lynched on his investigation claim. Especially if he was the last of his "tribe" as has been speculated. If everyone had believed olio and vikingfan went down and was found to be innocent then olio would have died today, no questions asked. I think he was handing us a rival scum as a way to make himself look innocent.
A vikingfan lynch would also tell us once and for all whether the insane cop claim is true as well. I know I'm the only one who even doubts that claim but like I said before, it hasn't been proven... whether the guy the claim is helping (vikingfan) says it has or not.
In short, I think we should lynch vikingfan.

vote: vikingfan

[CoolBot]

Remember, olio started his attack against vikingfan by twisting the words of a cop. Clearly, he though that'd be enough to pull one over on the town. Not until the town turned on him did he tell us his about his his investigation on vikingfan. Considering olio didn't even bother giving his complete results, why should we believe the ones he did give us?

As for number of mafia, why are so many so quick to assume the best case? And if there is only one scum left, we have time and can wait on viking until it becomes clear that we only have one scum.

[vikingfan]

Not really. Since, Myopia is insane, I would expect him to find the godfather as “guilty”.

We know that now. But ask yourself this: if Myopia had investigated the godfather day one, it would have been innocent. Remember, if we had lynched the godfather day one on Myopia's investigation that the godfather was guilty-that would have made him a sane cop, which we all know he isn't. So he must be innocent.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Frankly there's no reason for Olio to commit suicide by saying VKfan is guilty if VKfan is innocent, it would've been much better for him to just reveal his actual investigations and pass off as a cop or a backup than to lepton when he's most probably the only member of his family left.

[Yaw]

MMCL is taking the weekend in Manchester.

Also, pick up the pace a bit, people. I know it's Easter weekend, and I'm going to be lenient because of it, but I expect

some

posting...

[vikingfan]

I notice much of your theory rests on the thinking that he was the last one of his party. What if he wasn't? We don't know.

[Assasin]

I don't know but I dislike Pooky's playstytle and the way he's defending his case. I believe that Vikingfan is innocent and that MMCL is innocent so

Vote Pooky The Magical bear

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

My theory rests on the high probability that he was the last of his family, and it's also the best we have to go on at this point.

Assasin, you make no sense, I've been investigated by Myopia and gotten the same result as Vkfan, how can you believe Vk to be innocent but me to be guilty?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I don't know but I dislike Pooky's playstytle and the way he's defending his case

Assasin, what part of my playstyle and case defense do you not like? Is it because I've been posting actively this day unlike you? Is it because my arguments have logic in them that scares you? Is it because I put forth my suspicions with well founded reasoning and issue rebuttals when others question me? Is it because when someone believes there's something wrong with my case that I take the time to write a response to them?

Is it because I post in a way that makes logical coherent sense?

Assasin, instead of accusing me in broad generalities, why don't you just quote what part of my posts today seems scummy to you and state some logical reasoning why it seems scummy?

[big_kahunia]

Alive:

Claimed:

Maximumum
MMCL – cloth weaver
Myopia – cop
vikingfan – orange seller

Unclaimed:

Assasin
big_kahunia (Replacing nonny (Replacing NanookTheWolf))
CoolBot
Dranko20
Otaku376
PookyTheMagicalBear (Replacing Quagmire)
Quailman
Uraj45

Dead:

Climbed the Ladder of Death:
PeaceBringer, Potter (Townie), killed Night 1
Leonidas, English Settler (Townie), killed Night 1

Mastermind of Sin, Akuapem Infiltrator (Mafia), lynched Day 1

AndrewS, Linguist (Role Enabler), killed Night 2

Talitha, Fanti Asafo Infiltrator (Mafia), killed Night 2
Maximus, Christian Missionary (Cult Leader), lynched Day 2

Narninian, Healer's Apprentice (Doctor), killed Night 3
Internet Stranger, Fetish Priest (Cop), killed Night 3

mathcam, Fanti Asafo Elite Warrior (Mafia Roleblocker), lynched Day 3
Coron, Akuapem Leader (Mafia Godfather), lynched Day 4

big_kahunia, Wood Carver (Townie), killed Night 5
Locus Cosecant, Fetish Priest (Cop), killed Night 5

olio, Akuapem Spy (Mafia Cop), lynched Day 5

4) I like the vikingfan bandwagon. I think IS is definitely pointing to having found him out as scum. IS is smart enough to realize he may not have been fully sane, and in that case, he would try to make the random bandwagon-of-the-day be vikingfan to test his sanity, but also realized that a better lynch target may come along (and one did, in the name of MastermindOfSin).

Since we definitely have one Fanti Asafo left (unless Yaw made a mafia of two and unbalanced) and Cam was against vikingfan, I’d have to say that vikingfan is most likely not a scum. Vikingfan could be a member Akuapeum if there are indeed four people per mafia. But I tend to think that we have mafias of three.
I looked Cam since he was the only Fanti Asafo lynched and I wanted to see if I could find the last Fanti Asafo. With Tally being night-killed, we don’t have tons of information from a possible bandwagon reactions.

Right after Myopia revealed his result of Cam, Danko votes him.
Then after Quagmire votes Myopia, Danko writes:

FoS: Mathcam

. I still think Myopia is scum, but if he's innocent, then we'll have someone to look at tomorrow...Just wanted to point that out.

This looks like someone who knows his scum buddy is in trouble and wants to save his butt.
He later posts:

I'd ready to vote for you mathcam, if you don't roleclaim, because thinking about it more and more, the more likely you are to be scum, and if your not, I got my eyes on you Myopia.

In my opinion, there are several people in this town that are way less scummy then cam, but I wanna hear a claim.

I’m guessing he meant “way more” scummy than Cam. He is still trying to save Cam while putting suspicion on Myopia.
Cam later fos Danko, but I think it’s in an attempt to distance himself from scum since Cam knows his ship is sinking fast.

mathcam (9): MMCL, Coron, Uraj45, olio, CoolBot, Assasin, big_kahunia, Maximumum, vikingfan
Myopia (2): Otaku376, Quagmire

Here is part of the final vote count. The only ones alive now that didn’t vote Cam are: nonny/NTW/big_kahunia,

Danko

, Myopia, Otaku376, Quag/Pooky, and Quailman.

Danko20 never voted Tally, a Fanti Asafo. He did random vote Cam. Sometimes at the start of the game when I’m scum, I like to vote one of my scum buddies. His vote was bolded btw.

random Vote: Cam cause i like his hat in his sig.

If I had to peg anyone as scum, it would be Danko.

vote: Danko

btw: Myopia would please type your investigatives on this page. Thanks.

[Myopia]

night 1 - talitha - innocent
night 2 - mathcam - innocent
night 3 - quagmire (pooky) - guilty
night 4 - vikingsfan - guilty
night 5 - nonny (big kahuna) - guilty
night 6 - otaku - guilty

i might have vikingsfan and nonny round the wrong way

[Myopia]

Big kahunias analysis seems reasonable to me.

vote dranko

[big_kahunia]

It's d

r

anko. oops, sorry about that dranko.

[vikingfan]

I don't know but I dislike Pooky's playstytle and the way he's defending his case

Assasin, what part of my playstyle and case defense do you not like? Is it because I've been posting actively this day unlike you? Is it because my arguments have logic in them that scares you? Is it because I put forth my suspicions with well founded reasoning and issue rebuttals when others question me? Is it because when someone believes there's something wrong with my case that I take the time to write a response to them?

Is it because I post in a way that makes logical coherent sense?

Assasin, instead of accusing me in broad generalities, why don't you just quote what part of my posts today seems scummy to you and state some logical reasoning why it seems scummy?

Don't forget the possibility of cultist, though for now, I'm inclined to put the label of misguided pro-town player on you. Metagaming is always a bad play-we tried figuring out Maximus and couldn't do it.

I can buy that line of reasoning outlined above against Dranko.

Vote Dranko

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

the possibility of cultist? I was investigated AFTER the cult leader was killed, don't throw random crap like that at me if you're going to base your entire case for living on the validity of Myopia's investigation.

It's quite possible that Yaw gave the Mafia Godfathers a choice between nightkill immunity and nightinvestigation immunity.

And still noone has given me a logical reason why Olio would lepton and half the town isn't posting.

[big_kahunia]

Well, we don't know if the game started with one or two cultists. I'm leaning towards one though. Do you think Myopia's results are not valuable, Pooky?

still no one^ has given me a logical reason why Olio would lepton

lepton?

I do agree that we need some more participation, but it is Easter weekend, so people may be out and about.

^ = separated words.

[Otaku376]

well, perhaps I am putting too much merit into both Myopia's investigation and the incident with vk's claim. Plus my dranko wagon is finally coming along.

[Dranko20]

I am going to have to agree with you all, after reading that analyasist, I'd have to say that I am looking the scummiest by far, but I'm sorry to disappoint you are by saying that I am far from it. Screw it, I'm just going to claim because I don't think

that

s going to convince anyone so here it is.

I am the Ashanti Translator, I am a townie, but with a drawback similar to AndrewS, if I die, then all Ashanti roles cannot function properly.

[Myopia]

Im not sure what to make of this.

I figured the absolute worst we could do is force the doc to claim. Your making out something far worse. If your right then it would appear that both the doc and I (and any other ashanti roles) will no longer work.

My initial reaction though is that the claim is crap because:

- the town is ashanti - the pro-town players seems overwhelmingly ashanti (at least the roles revealed to date) making your death early an absolute catastrophe which seems unlikely (in fact I find it difficult to believe as a matter of game balance that a mod would tie a large number of roles into the survival of just one);

- andrewS's function appeared to also deal with ashanti albiet the "government" roles which implies cross-over which seems unlikely;

- andrewS's role was simply "linguist" - if there were two of you I would have thought the name would reflect that.

My vote stays until you can explan the above and what you mean by "ashanti roles".

[big_kahunia]

I say Dranko's claim is BS. Cam, scum, claimed a similar role. Myopia's points are good.

Lynch the scum!!!