Mini Normal 2002: The Thaw OVERRRRRRRRR

[Gamma Emerald]

@Cheetory, Hiraki, Implosion, Gamma: Which way do you want to go? You're the players I think are doing the best and the overall strongest, and I'd like to work with you. I think lynching MOI is negative EV for today (as my wife would say), because even if I think there's a 60% chance he's scum, the scum will STILL end up shooting him if we're wrong.

That's not how I feel about myself. I got into I childish fight with Saudade and while I have townreads that I trust I have minimal assurance in my scumreads. I'm not really arguing to lynch MOI, in fact I gave a townread on him which hasn't really changed. If I had to pick a direction to go besides Erika, Hoopla is probably what I'd pick, their posting kinda feels empty to me.

[implosion]

Yeah that stefan case is actually pretty good. I think 383 is the thing I was initially townreading him for, mostly off tone. But looking at it more closely it's the kind of thing that can be genuine from scum who has no idea how to react to the flavor wagon.

I feel like there might have been more. But yeah I'm rereading his stuff and his opening post feels bleh and his initial nullread on flavor is bleh and there's not a whole lot there.

VOTE: StefanB

[implosion]

Honest question Implosion – aside from really weak players are there any players who can’t fake things they do as Town as scum?

"Can't" is sort of the wrong word. If you dig deep enough it's all about probabilities, i.e. given a post there's a certain probability that the player in question would have made that post as town and as scum. Sometimes very good players, particularly good town players, will do things that they just aren't especially likely to do as scum. To contrast, those players' scum play probably usually consists of doing things that they do frequently as either town or scum. It's not necessarily that they

can't

do the things that they "more frequently" do as town; it's that they're less likely to be able to do them consistently in a way that people that know them well won't realize are off.

This is one of those paragraphs that has about a 50% chance of making sense so lmk if it doesn't at all.

[implosion]

But yeah I'm happy to go in the stefan direction now. I'd still be fine with hoopla. Flavor's reaction to the stefan case throws me for a little bit of a loop. I don't think he'd do that if stefan is scum with him, but I also don't think he'd go out of his way to defend stefan-town if he's scum. I especially don't think he makes that post if they're both scum, but that's sort of conjecture about his meta and I'm sure he'll say that he would.

[StefanB]

Okay, $20 bet, MOI, Flavor Leaf, StefanB. That's my money, that's where it's at.

Please do consider alternatives. Okay your flavorread is indepent of me beeing scum.

Yeah that stefan case is actually pretty good. I think 383 is the thing I was initially townreading him for, mostly off tone. But looking at it more closely it's the kind of thing that can be genuine from

a player

who has no idea how to react to

Flavor.

I bolded what has really happened. I have said everythink I can say to my defence until I am at L-1. Mostly the people are sheeping Grey at the moment. I would probably considering doing this myself if the case sounds belivable. I don't think it does, read my Posts 582 and 598 at last. You can still call he scum caught for the wrong reason, but please don't say the case has merrit.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla: You should sheep whatever we decide. Not lynching you is the only positive EV you have with the way you play day 1s. I think you're town because of voodoo, but even that's a weak read, and Stefan complaining why he's being wagoned while you get a pass is scumplaining, but also you look like an easy target because you are playing like an easy target.

I probably will once things get serious and the new realistic lynch choices become more clear. At the moment it feels like we're still waiting for the dust to settle from the Flavor wagon dissipating.

Hoopla, when did Flavor vanish from this list?

I agreed with the logic that the way Flavor's wagon stalled out with no counterwagons, it was likely he was town. Given I only ever had him at neutral-ish when I wanted to lynch him, this was enough to tip things in his favour.

[StefanB]

Cheetory:

Gamma
============
implosion, COA
============
GI
============
Erika, Stefan, Hoopla, Saudade, Hiraki
============
Prism
============
MOI, Flavor

Cult:

I'm gut scumreading Hoopla but apparently there's meta there that I don't know, waiting to hear from MoI on that. I prefer MoI as a wagon anyways.

Erica:

And then Stefan and Hoopla are like my only null reads

Flavour:

There is 100% scum in Hoopla, Cheetory, Implosion. I’m leaning more on the former two, as I see Implosion as a mislynchable player.

Gamma:

If I had to pick a direction to go besides Erika, Hoopla is probably what I'd pick, their posting kinda feels empty to me.

Hiraki votes Hoopla

Implosion:

543 from Hoopla feels really, really ridiculously pockety. I don't like any of her posts on the last page really. If a wagon pops up on her I'll join it, although I'd still rather lynch flavor if we can swing it especially since he's already claimed.

MoI:

Cult- Hoopla is a very skilled player and all her early game posts are well within her range as both Town or scum. So scum reading that is a big miss in my book.

Saudade:
After a townread on Hoopla was stated by Flavor:

Well that's a read I completely cant relate with

Grey:

You get a free pass to day 2, but you know that comes with a "your neck is on the chopping block very quickly if you don't produce" in the rider clause.

Prism hasn't mentioned Hoopla once.

Okay the whole freaking game is not townreading her (execpt perhabs Prism, and I give you that the last 3 quotes aren't that strong, but okay.

[Saudade]

Can't believe Flavor isnt getting lynched today, sigh

[Saudade]

I go afk for a couple of days and the wagon vanishes quite so easily eh..

[StefanB]

Btw: I would prefer to not only having only sheepers on the waggon easier.
If you want to sheep Grey this is the wrong waggon to do so.
Have a good reason if you are on it would be good for you.

I also don't think that Greys case is good enough to sheep here. It is so that I believe he believes it, so he is not scum for it.
But at the moment players are sheeping Greys personality not his case.
Since I want to have fun with it and get somethink out of it, can those voting me state please why they believe I am scum, so we can find the scum on the weagon easier, thanks.

[StefanB]

Btw my prediction for today is actually an Implosion-lynch.

[StefanB]

We have 3 votes that come without any reason or just sheeping Grey.
Now assume I am town, anyone wants to talk about, who of Cheetory, Magna or Implosion is scum?

[Cheetory6]

hello i have a pile of three players which one is the scum?
can someone figure it out for me?

[ie: why are you unable to come up with an opinion on it yourself?]

[Cheetory6]

I go afk for a couple of days and the wagon vanishes quite so easily eh..

you sound really genuinely bummed about it.

[StefanB]

Or do you think that Greys case was so good that 2 townies just jump and say jepp?

Implosion-analysis from his last post starting:

But yeah I'm happy to go in the stefan direction now. I'd still be fine with hoopla. Flavor's reaction to the stefan case throws me for a little bit of a loop. I don't think he'd do that if stefan is scum with him, but I also don't think he'd go out of his way to defend stefan-town if he's scum. I especially don't think he makes that post if they're both scum, but that's sort of conjecture about his meta and I'm sure he'll say that he would.

I am pushing Hoopla at the moment, there is my case. Interesting, that he is fine with voting me, but at the same time saying my case has merrit.
The interesting thing is that he states her clear that no matter what, Flavor is town.

I'll look at the stephen stuff more closely tonight. But at a glance meh.

Keely townread becomes slightly stronger in past couple pages.

Yeah that stefan case is actually pretty good. I think 383 is the thing I was initially townreading him for, mostly off tone. But looking at it more closely it's the kind of thing that can be genuine from scum who has no idea how to react to the flavor wagon.

I feel like there might have been more. But yeah I'm rereading his stuff and his opening post feels bleh and his initial nullread on flavor is bleh and there's not a whole lot there.

Is an interesting disonance, this is actialy the reason I exspect Implosion to be the lynch.

Okay I am not going to his whole ISO, I like that he gives reads and has some very strong ones.

But why does he aggree with Hooplas point about "Let's lynch semi-random on day 1, because town can't get a scum lynched and has a high chance to lynch without a claim."

If I look further back it looks better, I have to say and MoI is not easy to find as scum, I assume that same of Cheet.

[StefanB]

Cheet I am working on it, want to be next?

[StefanB]

PS Since you are there want to give me a case, I could use to practice to destroy it.

[Cheetory6]

wasnt townreading you and grey seemed confident about you being scum.
im sure thats what you wanted to hear right?
S:

[Cheetory6]

but at the same time saying my case has merrit.

i dont see where implo did this?

[StefanB]

Nope I wanted somethink more personal to know if you are town, or just sheeping scum.
So you just sheeped without a case and without a posible thought?
Man you must trust Grey, and yourself so little...
I am just preparing for somethink that I think could posible happen.

[Cheetory6]

grey seems town so far and i am indeed not very confident in my own ability to parse things in this game right now.
(:

[StefanB]

At the moment I am voting Hoopla, I have made the strongest case here, so this is strange.
Beeing vote after I made the first post I really liked this game, and then beeing agreed by the voter is interesting.

Cheet: I agree that Grey seems town, I agree that I, too would like to have stronger reads. I am very interested if Greys push alone for a case that I consider not very strong, gives him the votes he need.

[StefanB]

MoI: This is difficult, but its either him or Cheet to analyse that.
(Having him and Grey on the waggon makes the situation actually more weird)

First of, the fact that MoI doesn't seem to remember games where he dies day 1 is funny.

And wasn't there a scumtell, that 3rd person on the waggon is scum?

His sheeping is somethink that I am actually can see.

But MoI how often do you actually sheep as town? I know you and Grey did claim "massons" at the beginning. (I don't think anyone believed that masonclaim, it had not enough wolfpower behind it)

(Okay the fact that after MoI votes me the fact that Implosion the guy he just unvotes is the next vote is funny)

My problem is MoIs poinds make sense, I often want to nod and just say MoI is town.

Why has the waggon so townielocking people on it, which such weak reasons.
I want to either say: yes, I screwed up or go after the scum on it, with rightous vengeance...
So I probably have to wait what happens to the waggon next.

[StefanB]

Cheet: Actually forget it, I have read the game, reread his ISO a few times, and know that my heart wouldn't be in it.
I don't see him as scum.
I still think his sheep here is not the best move.
If you want to lynch me, have your own reason, will make the game easier, but okay I can perhaps live with your sheep.

[Cheetory6]

do you think im actively trying to lynch you right now?