1025 Tarot Mafia (Over!)

[Ythill]

I don't know if it matters. I just know that target/success is the information I'm hoping to use. I'm starting to think the person who played Strength isn't going to admit it. Too bad SC is dead. Does anyone else have the ability to determine who played a card?

Did the Priestess protect from kills, cards, or both?

[Prox]

Scum have their own cards. Alliance =/= power.

[Ythill]

I'm tired of waiting for Strength to claim. In case it's not obvious, I played the Empress last night which was a mass card-block limited by gender. This should explain my inside information about the Emperor, which I correctly assumed to be very similar.

I'm going to get on with finding the scumz. If you dont like me listing myself and Yth-confirmed DTM in green, then do your own analysis...

Reckoner (1): Capn

Ani

(1):

UK

Switz (4): MacavityLock, Mitsuru,

Ythill

,

Ani

MacavityLock (1): Switz
Mitsuru (1):

StrangerCoug

Jarti (1): Kise

StrangerCoug

(1): Jarti

UK

(1): xRECKONERx

Not Voting (1):

DTMaster

DTM

and MacavityLock prodded!

Here's the early Switz wagon. I'd attacked both Mac and Switz but was focusing on Mac pretty hard. Either his vote or Mitsu's could be scum redirection if Switz is town. It's too early for UK to take the bait.

Reckoner (1): Capn

Ani

(1):

UK

Switz (2): MacavityLock,

Ythill

MacavityLock (1): Switz
Jarti (3): Kise,

StrangerCoug

,

Ani

StrangerCoug

(1):

DTMaster

UK

(2): xRECKONERx, Jarti

Not Voting (1): Mitsuru

Capn prodded

The Switz mini-wagon has fallen apart but there's no clear alternative. Interesting that Mitsu unvoted without revoting and with no good reason, though she claims to still be suspicious of Switz later. Also, note that Jarti is under a little pressure and makes a cocky switch from SC-town to UK-scum. Distance much? UK is already leaning towards Switz.

Reckoner (1): Capn
Switz (5): MacavityLock,

Ythill

, Reck,

UK

, Jarti
Jarti (3): Kise,

StrangerCoug

,

Ani

StrangerCoug

(1):

DTMaster

Not Voting (2): Mitsuru, Switz

UK makes the switch and Jarti immediately follows her. The field has norrowed. Yet still nobody is biting on that 2/3 town wagon. Nor are they landing on the town-v-town SC-DTM thing that 's been sitting there for awhile. This makes it pretty clear that at least one of Jarti/Kise is mafia. Note that Switz removed his vote as pressure was building on him, earning himself some delicious townie-brownies.

Reckoner (1): Capn
Switz (3): MacavityLock,

MO

, Jarti
Jarti (3): Kise,

StrangerCoug

,

Socrates

Ythill

(1):

DTMaster

Magnus_Orion

(2): Switz,

Ythill

Not Voting (2): Reck, Mitsuru

Ani

and Capn are prodded.

Switz wagon is falling apart and

still no votes added to Jarti

. DTM has moved over to another town-wagon that nobody is interested in. The Switz vote on UK looked legit, as did Reck's unvote of UK shortly before the VC. Note that this VC and the previous UK votes gave scum a big hint that their buddy was on a very short list of potential lynches.

Reckoner (1): Capn
Switz (1): MacavityLock,
Jarti (2): Kise,

StrangerCoug

Ythill

(1):

DTMaster

DTMaster

(1): Jarti
MacavityLock (3):

Socrates

, Switz,

Ythill

StrangerCoug

(1):

Magnus

Not Voting (2): Reck, Mitsuru

Ani

and Capn are prodded.

Holy crap, look how long Capn has been parked on non-topic Reck. He doesn't have enough curiosity for one townie even though there's two of him. The votes have spread out considerably and still nobody is trying to rally the crumbling Jarti wagon. Remember, scum know that one of their own is in danger. Scum who moved their votes either jumped on Mac or tried to start something new. Switz and Jarti each did one of those things.

Switz (1): MacavityLock,
Jarti (2): Kise,

StrangerCoug

Ythill

(1):

DTMaster

MacavityLock (2):

Socrates

, Switz

Magnus_Orion

(4): xRECKx,

Ythill

, Jarti, Prox
Kise (1):

Magnus

Not Voting (1): Mitsuru

Mitsuru is prodded.

A very telling VC. Reck is town. At least one of Jarti/Prox is scum and my money is on Prox because he's been parked on Reck forever and suddenly wakes up to follow him onto and obviously doomed scumbag. Also, look at how MO moved over to his second-slot once the writing was on the wall. Classic distancing that implicates Kise.

Jarti (1): Kise

Ythill

(1):

DTMaster

MacavityLock (1):

Socrates

Magnus_Orion

(7): xRECKx,

Ythill

, Jarti, Prox, Switz, MacavityLock,

StrangerCoug

Kise (1):

Magnus

Not Voting (1): Mitsuru

Mitsuru is getting replaced during the night

Hmmmm... Mac and Switz interrupt their OMGUS circle-jerk to vote doomed MO back-to-back? Very odd, but I should probably read it in context before I jump to conclusions. Seems to me it was

very

close to deadline which would excuse their behavior.

Findings

Most likley scum are Prox and one of Jarti/Kise. Mac and shotty look a little dirty. Switz and Reck are town. I intend to read some isos before lynching anyone, but there's no harm in marking my suspicions with a...

VOTE: Prox

[MacavityLock]

@mod

, please prod Switz and Kise.

[Prox]

Um...no.

Now, again, would you like me to allow you two lynches today?

[Ythill]

Will the card allow us to see the first cardflip before we decide on the second lynch? Will it require double voting or are they consecutive or some other mechanic?

[Prox]

At the end of the day, the second highest wagon will die, too.

[Prox]

Also, the Reckoner wagon was due to inactivity on my (his, too?) part.

[Ythill]

Burning that card before LYLO sounds like a good idea so, yes, I think you should play it today. Though we should get others' opinions before you actually do.

We'll need to be careful with our smaller wagons but with one scum and only two town dead, the numbers seem to be in our favor. Even if the main lynch wagon is 100% town, scum only have a 2:2 plurality for the second lynch. Man, I wish shotty would have had a little more patience. His card plus yours would have been a good combo.

Inactivity isn't a good excuse.

[Prox]

It's more of an explanation than an excuse. But whatever you say.

I'm trying to get back INTO this mafia, but its hard.

[Ythill]

Do we have a math geek in this game? I'd like to see the percentage chance of lynching scum with Prox's card versus without it, assuming random lynches.

Worst case scenario if the card is played seems to be a 4:2 MYLO on D4 which isn't too bad. By way of comparison, WCS without the card is 5:3 LYLO on D5 which is exactly where we'd be if we no lynched in the aforementioned D4 MYLO. Playing the card gives us the added benefit of options @ MYLO, whereas refraining from playing the card gives us more info @ LYLO. The number of allowable mislynches doesn't change. So, basically, this choice comes down to options + speed versus info + time.

I may be withdrawing my support.

[dramonic]

Today's Card: The Star

Macavity (1): Jarti
Prox (1): Ythill

Not Voting (7): DMSIS, xRECKx, Prox, Switz, MacavityLock, Kise, DTM

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch
Deadline is the 5th

Switz and Kise prodded

I chose the star above the other because it sounds more poetic, just an fyi.

[MacavityLock]

Do we have a math geek in this game? I'd like to see the percentage chance of lynching scum with Prox's card versus without it, assuming random lynches.

Ooh, ooh, me me!

I ran 3 scenarios, under entirely random lynches. Feel free to check my math or assumptions.

Scenario 1: 2 Maf, 1 SK, 6 Town

No Double Lynch

• Kill Maf: 22.2%
• Kill SK: 11.1%
• Kill town: 66.7%

Double Lynch

• Kill 2 Maf: 2.8%
• Kill 1 Maf & SK: 5.6%
• Kill SK, 1 town: 16.7%
• Kill 1 Maf, 1 town: 33.3%
• Kill 2 town: 41.7%

Scenario 2: 1 Maf, 1 SK, 7 Town

No Double Lynch

• Kill Maf: 11.1%
• Kill SK: 11.1%
• Kill town: 77.8%

Double Lynch

• Kill Maf & SK: 2.8%
• Kill SK, 1 town: 19.4%
• Kill Maf, 1 town: 19.4%
• Kill 2 town: 58.3%

Scenario 3: 2 Maf, 7 Town

No Double Lynch

• Kill Maf: 22.2%
• Kill town: 77.8%

Double Lynch

• Kill 2 Maf: 2.8%
• Kill 1 Maf, 1 town: 38.9%
• Kill 2 town: 58.3%

Of course, our lynches are unlikely to be random.

If we do in fact have a SK, and we double mislynch, and both kills hit town, we're left with either 2 Town, 2 Maf, 1 SK - Town loses, Kingmaker, or 3 Town, 1 Maf, 1 SK - 2 LYLOs in a row at best. This suggests that we should most definitely

not

be double lynching.

Then again, if we do have a SK, I think the probabilities based on uniform random lynches above are completely wrong. The SK is almost certain to be Jarti, and we would almost certainly use one lynch on him. I'm not exactly sure what the best way to compute probabilities for that scenario would be. It heavily depends on the assumptions, most important question being: Do we assume that Jarti is almost certain to

not

be Maf?

----

Hey Jarti, explain the differences between your claimed role PM, the example role PM, and NS's gender claim. Also, an explanation of why you're voting me would be nice.

[drmyshottyizsik]

ok so what we do is we deside on a lynch, then we get a few people to vote it, then everyone else votes no lynch and it's like we lynched only one pereson

[MacavityLock]

Shotty, he hasn't used it yet, we're discussing if he should. Pay better attention.

[Prox]

How do you guys do that? The probability thing.

[drmyshottyizsik]

I know mac, but really thay serves no town purposes, how does that help town?

[xRECKONERx]

ok so what we do is we deside on a lynch, then we get a few people to vote it, then everyone else votes no lynch and it's like we lynched only one pereson

I dislike you.

[Prox]

He's trying...I think.

You are trying, right?

[xRECKONERx]

Dram, I really question your sanity as a mod if you allowed someone whose signature is "The VI has arrived" to replace into one of your games.
Darling... arghghghghghghgh why would you do this to meeeeeeeeee?

[MacavityLock]

How do you guys do that? The probability thing.

Magic. Actually, just math. I'm a grad student in applied math (basically), so I know this stuff pretty well. And this is actually a pretty simple use of discrete probabilities, and it just boils down to multiplying the right numbers together. There's much more complicated stuff to do, such as, given evidence we've seen so far, what are the probabilities that we're in setup A vs setup B, for example. But it's almost certainly not worth it to examine here (yet, if ever).

I know mac, but really thay serves no town purposes, how does that help town?

I don't understand what this means. At all.

[MacavityLock]

EBWOP: That second quote of course should be attributed to Shotty. Sorry about that, Prox.

[Prox]

You know, I've noted this for a while.

Also, its arived.

MCL...what? When did I say that? I'm a bit better at spelling and grammar than that, for starters.

PREVIEW: Oh lol.

[drmyshottyizsik]

I am (for once), making perfect sense. This card how no town benifits, unless scum out number town, but then it's game over, or if it's lylo, but then town automaticly wins

[drmyshottyizsik]

Reck you mispelled my sig ((