Newbie 2005 [Game Over!]

[Aloratom]

I'm hoping that will answer my questions.

[votato]

what about that interaction looks wrong? dont forget, half the interaction is you

[Aloratom]

About 632? I'm asking about what you said you were going to address regarding Italiano & egix. For a long time you said they were scummy together and individually, then it looked like you reacted the together part and were going to explain it. What happened there? What did you see or not see?

I wasn't half of that. I was half of trying to get that info out of you.

[votato]

why does it matter now? i can try to look back and see what i thought was scummy, but i dont see how itll help since i was wrong and if im scum id just make something up now

[Aloratom]

why does it matter now? i can try to look back and see what i thought was scummy, but i dont see how itll help since i was wrong and if im scum id just make something up now

1) it helps me figure out if you were just ducking the question

2) it helps me see what you saw in a scum!egix

Both of those things are relevant to my analysis in deciding between the two of you.

Yes, if you are scum, you're just going to make something up, but you would've made something up then also.

[AaronFrost]

Vote Count 4.01

Vote Count

Aloratom [0]:

votato [0]:

Egix96 [0]:

Not Voting [3]:

Aloratom, votato, Egix96

With 3 in play, it takes 2 votes to lynch.

Day 4 ends in (expired on 2020-06-16 20:00:00)

Notes

-

[Egix96]

VOTE: Not Known 15
This by a slight margin.

Why?

Piis's posting in response to NK doesn't read to me as someone who thinks they've been caught as scum - i.e. I think that if he were scum he would seem more flustered/panicked due to having a guilty conscience.

As for NK, I think that him pushing for a quicklynch on piis could be scum trying to take the easy way out of Day 1, which for some people is the hardest day to get through.

Egix, what did you mean by "due to having a guilty conscience?"

Because scum know that any accusations made against them are true, whereas if someone is town and is accused of being scum then they know it's either incorrect or a lie. It's a psychological thing.

i mean i wish i were scum

Don't we all...

I thought nothing of it before, but this seems odd now.

That was just a passive-aggressive way of me saying I didn't believe him.

Egix, what did you mean by votato playing fancy? I think I know, but I want to be sure.

Stating that Midari was locktown when she actually wasn't, which, if votato is town, was an attempt to trick scum into shooting her.
The fact that Midari still died, despite the ploy being fairly obvious, makes me think votato is scum pretending to gambit, perhaps to give himself cover for not dying in the night.

why would i die in the night? you just said you find me scummy. scum wants to kill townie players. if anything its mildly suspicious that alora is still alive.

That was since the nightkill though. Remember, my reads were these before:

The way I see it is, if the last scum isn't [NK15], it's probably just Midari, since I've been underwhelmed with her posting Today, I'm fairly confident that Alora is town, and though I disliked votato on Day 1, I think he looks a fair amount better from associations with Snow.

i wanted a winnable lylo. town!midari would have been an asset. thats why scum wound up killing her.

but scum!her would have probably won

Hm, how so?

[votato]

egix why does the night kill implicate me? and midari would have probably won as scum due to being hard to read.

[Egix96]

egix why does the night kill implicate me? and midari would have probably won as scum due to being hard to read.

I just think that Alora is smart enough not to shoot Midari there?

[votato]

but im not smart enough not to?

[Egix96]

but im not smart enough not to?

The difference is that you're the one who wanted it to happen. So if Alora is scum then he was playing right into your hands, whereas if you did it then it's just self-serving.

[votato]

scum!me kills alora here. the most widely townread player.

[Aloratom]

Votato, looking at Midari and your interactions, it's difficult to believe that she was your next in line after NotKnown, that you "were really unsure" of her. I think this is your only interaction with her:

Votato isn't scum. If they are its a very bad showing and quite a gambit as I feel they semi want to be lynched today.

definitely dont want to be lynched today... what gives you that impression?

And this is what you had to say about Egix yesterday, which is indicative of your read of him all game:

this seems like a pure wifom argument. although i think NK is clearly snowblaze's partner, it could be that NK was just pocketed. I'm willing to lynch egix today, egix is still also scummy. I suspect that if we lynch egix today, and he flips town, that i die tonight. in that case i humbly submit that tomorrow is a NK lynch.

So at that point, it looks like you were thinking it was NotKnown and then if not NotKnown, Egix, speculating that if Egix was lynched and flipped Town, NotKnown would kill you. Nothing about Midari at all.

Then later on you said something about Egix being slightly clear after you reviewed Snowblaze's ISO, but you didn't explain that. Nothing in your posting indicated that Midari was a scum read for you, let alone someone you were "really unsure about."

So it's one thing to plant that WTF moment at the end of the day yesterday, and it's another to open today saying, "scum played right into my hands by killing the player I led them to," and then defend it saying, "if I were scum I would have killed alora."

[Aloratom]

VOTE: Snowblaze

Why did you not declare intent before doing this?

Choo chooo my votes gonna go on egix. But I like to hear first

How so? I'm bemused that you would side with the person who tunnelled the tracker.

this seems like a pure wifom argument. although i think NK is clearly snowblaze's partner, it could be that NK was just pocketed. I'm willing to lynch egix today, egix is still also scummy. I suspect that if we lynch egix today, and he flips town, that i die tonight. in that case i humbly submit that tomorrow is a NK lynch.

I'm going to post this entire quote, because I think it also gives possible motive for a scum!egix to kill Midari.

[Aloratom]

I will say that Snow and Egix aren't the same alignment.

How did you progress from this to your current stance?

How they were acting though they could have been pushing distance from each other to make it look like there wasn't buddying going on to the degree

I'm pressuming that "they" is meant to be "you two" i.e. Egix & Snowblaze.

Still, I'm intrigued as to why you're passing off those interactions as distancing rather than re-evaluating on Alora/votato - why are those two not the scum, in your mind?

This one too.

[votato]

Votato, looking at Midari and your interactions, it's difficult to believe that she was your next in line after NotKnown, that you "were really unsure" of her. I think this is your only interaction with her:

Votato isn't scum. If they are its a very bad showing and quite a gambit as I feel they semi want to be lynched today.

definitely dont want to be lynched today... what gives you that impression?

And this is what you had to say about Egix yesterday, which is indicative of your read of him all game:

this seems like a pure wifom argument. although i think NK is clearly snowblaze's partner, it could be that NK was just pocketed. I'm willing to lynch egix today, egix is still also scummy. I suspect that if we lynch egix today, and he flips town, that i die tonight. in that case i humbly submit that tomorrow is a NK lynch.

So at that point, it looks like you were thinking it was NotKnown and then if not NotKnown, Egix, speculating that if Egix was lynched and flipped Town, NotKnown would kill you. Nothing about Midari at all.

Then later on you said something about Egix being slightly clear after you reviewed Snowblaze's ISO, but you didn't explain that. Nothing in your posting indicated that Midari was a scum read for you, let alone someone you were "really unsure about."

So it's one thing to plant that WTF moment at the end of the day yesterday, and it's another to open today saying, "scum played right into my hands by killing the player I led them to," and then defend it saying, "if I were scum I would have killed alora."

youre right that i didnt post much about midari. i was having trouble sorting the slot, so didnt have much to say. my lack of words indicates that i didnt have strong opinions, or i would have shared them. not a lot of posts really stood out to me there. i didnt scumread midari, midari was a null read. midari doesnt seem to have been locktown by any stretch, i dont see the motivation for that kill. you were the obvious kill choice, and the fact that you are still here somewhat suggests that you are scum.

[votato]

hello?

[Egix96]

We should probably think about voting soon.
I'm still leaning towards voting Votato unless something major comes up.

[votato]

hmm please dont do so yet. if im gonna lose i at least want to have the right solve.

[votato]

why do you think tom is town?

[Egix96]

why do you think tom is town?

The simple answer is that I think that his associatives with Snow are a bit better than yours, and that the Midari kill comes from you more likely than from him. I'm going to give the game another once-over before I vote anyway.

i wanted a winnable lylo. town!midari would have been an asset. thats why scum wound up killing her. but scum!her would have probably won, and so I'm happy to compromise and have a clearer picture of the game. (sorry midari <3). But actually the real reason midari died is that she was the second most obvious town. and the most obviously town player was in fact scum.

case coming tomorrow.

I'm pretty sure that this best explains the night kill and alora's play all game. and it also explains the special treatment snowblaze gave to alora by constantly stating scumreads but never hard pushing.

Btw, this is what I was implying when I said "something major".

[Aloratom]

The thing about Midari is still bothersome.

[Egix96]

Speaking of which, I'm fairly comfortable with my vote where it is: Aloratom has yet to post anything relevant to solving the game.

And others.

If Alora were scum with Snow, I imagine he would have been a bit more cautious re: their interactions, and thus not lazily only written two words here. A more complete response would have been something to the effect of "Some other people haven't posted anything game-solving yet either" as suggested by 122.

I'm still not sure about the whole scum tell thing with pi. I'd say Egix, Beansi and Homura seem slightly Townie so far. But there's not much to go on yet.

Can you explain the first two of those?

Egix's 60 is a good post slowing NotKnown down -- I think scum would be okay with a fast lynch. Beansi seems genuinely confused/intrigued about the whole scum tell read on pi and is reserving judgment I think.

But presumably scum wouldn't be okay with a fast lynch on their partner, so your town lean on Egix would be conditional on pi also being town?

I don't know where you get that. Opposing a turbo lynch is just good Town play unless there's a mechanical reason to do it.

The disagreement here feels slightly not s/s?

I'm also unsure why aloratom has three votes at this stage. Why exactly is this? Going back to reread.

What’s your current read on Aloratom, then?

I'm actually not sure why Snow would ask this... it's not as if Beansi's feelings would have been anything other than null or slight town.

Also not sure I like the above post. I agree with the reasoning behind it, but going from "wait, why is this guy being wagoned?" to "actually, he seems really suspicious, I'm joining the wagon" as soon as I ask you about it is suspicious imo.

Possibly opportunistic push on Beansi in order to justify moving on from Alora wagon?

I'm also unsure why aloratom has three votes at this stage. Why exactly is this? Going back to reread.

It sounds like your current read on me didn't really develop organically.

Alora also started suspecting Beansi, so it's not impossible that this was the scumteam taking an opportunity to prevent an Alora lynch.

@Aloratom, if you’re suspicious of Beansí, why aren’t you voting for her?

This also seems to support the above notion - I can imagine this being a "hey dude, this is a prime mislynch opportunity right here, why not use your vote?"

i dont like how almost all of snowblaze's posts are fluff or iioa. shes actively lurking.

As much as this could be +town for votato, I don't think this comment is particularly nuanced/unlikely to be distancing. Especially when it could easily have been spurred on by this:

3. I'm not lurking. Lurking implies I'm not posting, which I am.

So the main point of analysis is that the Aloratom wagon reached an intent to hammer so quickly and then decreased so quickly. There’s probably something I can deduce from this... gobbledygook jumped on the wagon without much reasoning, but it’s Beansì’s vote I really don’t like. She still hasn’t provided an explanation for how quickly she went from not getting the reasoning behind the wagon to jumping on it.

There’s some other things I don’t like from her, as well: the immediate claim not to be wagoning anyone after putting Aloratom on L-1, calling gobbledygook’s reasoning a “fairytale” which it clearly wasn’t, and then that very OMGUS-y vote on gobbledygook.

I agree with some but not all of the arguments against Aloratom. Fluff-posting in itself is slightly suspicious, but it really depends on the player, and in some cases it’s NAI. I’ll need to do some meta research to see whether it’s AI in this instance. Not sure I like the using a previous game as justification for this one, though: all games are different and treating them as the same won’t help you to solve this one.

The main reason for my lessened suspicion of Aloratom is the sheer speed with which the wagon built up. I feel like if he were scum there would have been a lot more resistance as his partner tried to defend him.

The problem with this argument is that it is no longer relevant, as although the Alora wagon was started by scum, it was developed by town. Possible partner defence agenda?

I... struggle to believe that NK or Beansì could be distancing themselves from Aloratom. Unless they were genuinely prepared to lynch their scum partner this early on (and... **why would anyone do that? Would it really be worth the town cred to sacrifice your partner that early on?**) they would have looked incredibly suspicious by jumping off the wagon at the last second.

The fact that that’s exactly what gobbledygook did is making me slightly worried, but on the other hand I can definitely understand the thought processes that led them to do that: two people individually suspicious who can’t be partners, which one do you vote for?

If Alora is scum then she was doing that herself! Pretty brazen if so.

VOTE: italianoVD. did not like that catch up. this slot has not gotten any townier

This post still doesn't sit well with me.

@ItalianoVD, I'm not really sure why you're suspecting me. I put a pressure vote on someone who had posted but not contributed, and left it there when they didn't start contributing. That being said, I get your reason for suspecting votato even less, so...

Elaborate on why votato is suspicious, please.

Also, not sure why you're town reading people purely for not doing anything suspicious. It makes more sense to have these people as null unless they've been actually acting towny. Which of the people on your list of non-suspicious people would you say have been actively towny as opposed to not scummy?

"Please explain why you suspect this person who I am totally not scum with"?

ah i see the confusion. it arises from me being a dumbass. we should lynch inside the people on homura's wagon, and also inside the people homura scumread. not the people pi scumread, that would be silly.

im still a dumbass. the people on the lynchwagon and the people Homura scumread. third time is the charm?

Do scum really forget that Hom was NKed rather than lynched though... probably just genuine mixup and thus not worth reading into? Eh...

im still a dumbass. the people on the lynchwagon and the people Homura scumread. third time is the charm?

That actually makes sense. Checking through Homura’s ISO, that would be piisirrational and Aloratom.

I’m annoyed that I can’t get a proper read on pi - whenever I’m convinced they’re scum they do something towny and whenever I start to think they’re town they do something scummy.

As for Aloratom, I’m fairly null, possibly with a slight scum lean. This is increased by the possible associatives with pi. An Aloratom/pi team actually makes a lot of sense.

uh i think it includes NK as well.

I looked through the ISO again, and couldn't find anything that clearly implied Homura scumread NK15.

I think the confusion here arose from NK15 being part of the "people on the lynchwagon" criterion.

snowblaze, i also defended pi. why am i not scum?

I'm willing to admit that this may be a not-s/s line of questioning?

snowblaze, i also defended pi. why am i not scum?

You didn't defend pi as strongly as Aloratom did, and also you've given me independent reasons to believe you're town, which Aloratom hasn't so much.

Urrgh I wish I could tell whether Snow was lying or not here.

much as I hate to agree with my top scumread, I do agree with pi's perspective that they would have moved to NK15 in this position.

Why would you hate to agree with your top scum read? Is it because it forces you to find someone else who is scummy?

I'm aware that I commented on this one before, but that second sentence in particular... feels kinda risky to be saying to a partner.

Votato I love you. In my heart you are always scum. But your town.

This is funny because I understand it.

You understood the feeling perhaps, but did you necessarily feel the same way? Because that doesn't seem to be your stance any more.

@Aloratom I'll also ask you this, what do you think of the two people who I'm focusing on more today (Snowblaze and NK15)? Do you think they're town or scum and why?

I still scum read NotKnown because of his Day 1 play principally. I'm getting a gut feeling that Snowblaze may be scum, but I can't point to anything yet.

If Alora is scum, he read my mind here. Simple as.

although i think snow is less scummy, i think snow might be more likely to flip scum and also more likely to give us good associations.

How can I be less scummy but also more likely to flip scum? That makes no sense.

Pi is still my preferred lynch, but I’ll switch to NK15 to prevent a no lynch if I must. I won’t lynch myself, naturally, and I’d prefer it if no-one else lynched me.

Possible case of distancing gone wrong? (In the sense of votato's comment being ill-thought-out?)

182/261. Gonna have a break for refreshments and then finish this.

[Egix96]

The thing about Midari is still bothersome.

In 648 you mean? The asset thing?

[Aloratom]

The thing about Midari is still bothersome.

In 648 you mean? The asset thing?

I don't completely understand the the thinking there.

If it hadn't been for votato's entrance, I likely would have attributed Midari's night kill more to you than to him.