TM2020 - Large Theme - Gay Mafia IV: TOWN WIN

[davesaz]

EBWOP 1st sentence, wrote that on an ipad but realized the shorthand won't make sense.

Even vs odd is not something I

ever

think about (any alignment), WTF are you going on about?

[davesaz]

Another explanation is one of the doc hood is scum, gambled on a 50/50 on the save, and lost.
That begs the question why not just shoot a 3rd townie who is outside the 2 being doc'd?

Shooting in the docs risks a guilty. So does trying to shoot anyone but me.
I'm wifoming my ass off here because scum don't know who it's safe to kill, nor which of them is safe to make it.

[Ankamius]

I am here acknowledging daystart and will have more later.

Expect walls.

(Ftr I agree that dave should out his actions, I value the ability to sort him more accurately over the mechanical value of his LMS at this point)

[Ankamius]

Danns game ended, so I am the last person on my team still alive in a game.

Dann has said he'd have more of an impact in the game.

[davesaz]

There is nothing to sort -- I'm unquestionably town.
I mean it exactly that way. Nothing confirmed here, not especially obvious even. But still, logically it is not something that can be questioned.
I would have expected you to treat the remaining member of my hood the same.
I'm the closest thing this game has to being a cop.
Like just, really? The role is confirmed, and you just don't fuck with the role ever.

[davesaz]

A50 / Ank / vote remove->vig
It makes mechanical sense for scum to be in this group.
I successfully scumread A50 in a game where we were scum together Gotta be honest, I don't remember what I'm thinking this game.
Ank's posting, especially yesterday's, is so full of OMGUS and drama that I'd be hard pressed to tell what the real reads are.
I have much work to do, to figure out these two.

EP / FL doc->lightning
If there were scum in this group it would be weird. If a save goes awry that would tell the town in the hood that their
neighbor is scum. Furthermore scum can't really activate a LMS lightning rod without killing themselves, and lack of activating
would also be a red flag.
On top of that, I independently town read both FL and EP.

FB (not in a group)
Scum removing anyone from the Commuter / venge hood is a dice roll. It activates the venge and prevents the commute from being used as a 2nd doc.
It's entirely possible that scum wanted the hood gone early when the probability of getting 2 town is higher.
Frankly, we got lucky with nomnom's venge choice. I could see that going a lot of different directions.
FB is independently scummy to me, regardless of the hood roles.

Kuribo / Panthaleon RB
We already got one scum from this hood. Someone made a big point about the chances of 2 scum, early in the game. I don't remember
if that was arguing in favor of the possibility of 2 scum or if it was arguing against that.
I think Kuribo is genuine and is a strong TR for me.
Panthaleon has been extremely sketchy to me. I don't remember a single concrete read coming from this direction

DEB / Gammagooey -- CEO's, weird stuff??
One of the CEO's flipped 3p. Symmetry begs for there to be scum in this group.
I have made no secret of my scumread on DEB.
Gammagooey is one of my weakest TR, partly because DEB being useless and partly because Gamma just feels off.
Hypothetically if I didn't commute then this would tip the scales toward DEB scum, almost regardless of everything else.

[Gammagooey]

Hey EP, can you paraphrase the post with FL asking for Maria's vote on Ank in your QT for me? (ask the mod before posting it if you're worried about it being too close to exact or anything like that)

Given that Maria flipped scum I think it's worth looking into a little more

[davesaz]

I said I think we need your vote on Ank, Maria

Not Panth or FB.

2 separate posts. I didn’t look at it like that, but I guess I see why he’d call it out like that.

This is correct.

I interpreted this as meaning that FL's post in the hood was:

I think we need your vote on Ank, Maria

Followed by a separate post saying

Not Panth or FB.

I said that I think FL just put a comma instead of 'or' in the first post, and it's

probably

not a slip.
If we got to a point that there had to be scum in the EP/FL hood this would definitely point to FL. But I think it does not point to FL right now because I strongly doubt there is scum in that hood at all.

You're welcome to interpret it differently.

[EspressoPatronum]

Hey EP, can you paraphrase the post with FL asking for Maria's vote on Ank in your QT for me? (ask the mod before posting it if you're worried about it being too close to exact or anything like that)

Given that Maria flipped scum I think it's worth looking into a little more

For sure. I bolded it in FL's recap:

I said

I think we need your vote on Ank, Maria.

Not Panth or FB.

2 separate posts. I didn’t look at it like that, but I guess I see why he’d call it out like that.

The first sentence is the one I was worried about. I added a period to it in the quoted 5961 for greater accuracy.

For added context, MariaR looked like she was positioning to move off of Ank at the time. That's why the timing is so weird.

[davesaz]

Very interested in discussion relating to 6780.
Subtle reminder that it's possible to make strong points with few posts...

[EspressoPatronum]

As mentioned above, I got the vibe that MariaR was looking to get off the Ank wagon. These are the relevant posts that came minutes before FL's post in my hood.

Spoiler:

This is scummy of you and subtle discrediting

I’m talking about you. Not anyone else. Unless other people are pushing the slip then I’d have to see who. Talking about you though. Good try champ.

Dw FL we finally agree on something for once. We both think the other player is scum and we're not voting each other.

However, I think pushing ank for a 'slip' is weka. When you can ya know, push her for other things.

I'm pushing her because everytime she gets pushed she puts up this AtE defeatist thing. Like even day 1, she did it and said she was getting BoP'd. Everytime she gets suspected she mentions town is going to lose. Is that townie to you?

It’s not towny, but I can see where she’s coming from with part of considering I literally did the same thing yet I’m not getting pushed for it. I think Ank is hiding behind the EC msgs atm.

Maria showing up to help Firebringer after he showed up to help Ank.

I have never purposely not entered a thread or entered a thread at a certain time. The fact you’re pulling at straws with reasoning like this when you tried to use this same logic to discredit me on the DV lynch is super funny.

@Nomnom - Maria’s afraid of A50 Vig shot

Yes, this is why I’m voting Ank to give A50 the vig shot!

mariar of all people thinks I need to hide behind EC

I feel like you just ran away when I tried to actively engage you for once. The other times you did engage me I had you as town. Now that I don't it's? Also, are you saying scum you doesn't hide behind EC?

I read this as MariaR looking for an excuse to "TR" Ank again. Kind of like an, 'engage with me and I'll TR you."

'I'd be on anyone who actively disagrees with me and throw useless shade cause my points mean nothing'

Srsly. How are you people townreading this? Ik getting a FL wagon won't work, but like come on now.
pedit: Crazy thought let's lynch FL?

Possibility of this being an attempted soft bus. MariaR leading a scum!FL lynch would buy her a ton of town cred.

Although this post came 2 mins after, it's still part of her subtle backtracking on Ank.

Spoiler:

mariar of all people thinks I need to hide behind EC

I feel like you just ran away when I tried to actively engage you for once. The other times you did engage me I had you as town. Now that I don't it's? Also, are you saying scum you doesn't hide behind EC?

what?

when did this happen?

When I first voted you a bit ago.
pedit: Yeah Ank it's cool and we get a free ML if we lynch in the lighting rod hood

[EspressoPatronum]

I said I think we need your vote on Ank, Maria

Not Panth or FB.

2 separate posts. I didn’t look at it like that, but I guess I see why he’d call it out like that.

This is correct.

I interpreted this as meaning that FL's post in the hood was:

I think we need your vote on Ank, Maria

Followed by a separate post saying

Not Panth or FB.

I said that I think FL just put a comma instead of 'or' in the first post, and it's

probably

not a slip.
If we got to a point that there had to be scum in the EP/FL hood this would definitely point to FL. But I think it does not point to FL right now because I strongly doubt there is scum in that hood at all.

You're welcome to interpret it differently.

I went through all of his posts in my hood. Almost all of them used either a / or proper comma use to distinguish between people. Mind you, most of the game has been just him and me, so he hasn't had to direct a comment at someone in a long time. When Elements was alive, he made a post directing separate points at Elements and me. In that post, he ended the respective sentence with ", Elements." And ", EP."

There was one example of FL saying X, Y, Z with no proper punctuation. This adds some support to his claim that he intended to put panth in the list of Ank, Maria, panth, but then changed it after.

Add in the fact that (1) gobble is scumreading FL, (2) the doctors are still somehow alive, despite being the optimal targets, and (3) the strange MariaR pivot onto FL mentioned in the spoilers posts above.

[EspressoPatronum]

See below - several bolded examples of FL saying XYZ, name....

and these are just the first two pages of his ISO.

He does it more than or equal to @name to address people. He almost always uses name/name/name for listing names. He very rarely used name, name, name.

This game also started yesterday, Dave

. Pushing me for not coming out of the gate blazing...

Would you like me to come out blazing?

I’m not trying to mislynch Sod Volpe, though, Nomnom

.

viewtopic.php?f=100&t=60967

Found it, GIF.

It was 2015, holy shit

By FL, om, and now even MariaR.
Hers was the most surprising because she knows how much of a lazy fuck I am to make a post like that.

This isn't even close to true. The one game I've seen from you (the one I modded) you tryharded in. Sure, I know you're personally lazy but I didn't know how that translates. I think you're just getting annoyed because you're not getting the easy townreads that you expected to get.

I fight with RC, because I don’t let him town coast.

And I kill off NSG when she’s my traitor partner.

Actually, I think most of the time I play with NSG, I end up killing her regardless of my alignment.

Also, Maria, are you Elena?

Speak your truth, Dave,

don’t see it as bragging, it’s a part of you. It is you.

GIF’s never getting night killed, Ank.

He controls a commuter neighborhood with RC/NSG clout.

Also I think that style of scumplay is actually kind of disproportionately effective because people just haven't learned how to counter it

People just don’t move past the mechanical way of playing Mafia and don’t see it like a spectrum. :shrug:

The majority of my scum games there is generally zero actual reason for me to ever be Mafia, even when I am, and mechanical by the book players physically can’t understand why I win the games I do.

I feel like I probably have one of the, if not the, highest scum win rate from players who have had more than 7 scum games on site.

Not using mechanical play, and playing socially is a counter, kind of, but then you gotta play the game. I’m all about scum and town alike making the moves.

I have an extremely flashy vanilla scum play, kind of like the BooneyToonz games in general.

I am by the book, 100%. It’s just not the book the so called “elite” players are reading, because I find it completely outdated.

I’m gonna mainstream Mafia, guys.

Bet.

You’re my new apprentice, Chennisden.

Welcome to the Boon Babes.

Fark was the best NK for FL/nomnom and a below average NK to a team outiside of nomnom/FL that should be more worried about Ank the paragon reaching the conclusion that it's a lot of TvTs.

Comment on this, Ankamius

, please.

Because we talked earlier about something similar.

[/quote]

[EspressoPatronum]

Very interested in discussion relating to 6780.
Subtle reminder that it's possible to make strong points with few posts...

What sort of discussion are you looking for regarding 6780? I didn't see any new material + most of your points are effectively, "it's a dice roll" or "we'll have to wait to see."

[Almost50]

Geez! I said -in my hood- that I won't be pushing FL because it's harder to lynch him and the game would turn toxic if he was seriously pushed. That is why I wanted to push DEB over FL today although I am actually more confident FL is Scum.

I am now being forced to take a solid stance and out that if I ever got the Vig shot I was going to shoot FL myself. That's how confident I am he is Scum.

One of the main reasons I already outed: He is still alive. More: He is in the Doctors hood which had already lost a member on D1, and any Scum worth 2 grains of salt would want to remove that ASAP, and with the Commuters gone that's

the one

NK option Scum have if FL/EP were both Town.

Then there is the weird FoS by FL on Maria. He even voted her at one point but there was no real danger for the wagon to grow on her and he never once did push her for real.

Both FL & Maria were protecting DEB as if he was their only child. Yet again, Maria outright TR'd DEB while FL used his elusive ways of distraction, pretending to go along with a SR and magically finding a way to defuse the wagon and/or redirect discussion. Even when he did vote DEB he did that.

FL was so worried nom would venge him. He only voted her when she declared she didn't intend to take him out. It was like he didn't expect her to aim for Maria. Even if she decided to venge DEB it would have still netted Scum a Town kill (in nom) which was much better than lynching DEB outright.

FK's opening of the day was so scummy (that IS what triggered my slow clapping post). It's as if I had seen this movie before. I had foreseen everything he said today, including his indirect defence of DEB (reread his posts of today).

For those unfamiliar with FL's Scum play (and even for those who know him but may have overlooked some details) this looks very much like him in New Beginnings (Rick Dalton is FL).

His play around Maria is similar to his play around both me and ben in Mini Normal 2102 (Morality/Pretentious are both FL)

Also this game he was Scum with me (and dave) and I thought dave may want to take another look on any (or all) of them to remind him of Scum!FL's play and tactics.

Maria gave you the solve "in your face" after she got venged, stating we should lynch FL/DEB. Of course, almost every Town player will think it's WIFOM and reverse psychology dictates you get a little bit of your subconsciousness AGAINST the lynch of either of them because of it, which was EXACTLY the purpose of that post. (Why would SCUM who HAVE BEEN VENGED and know they're flipping soon ever post THAT?)

FL's "flip flopping" on me is NOT GENUINE. It's an attempt to replicate his TOWN play around me. However, he never ONCE tried to approach me in a way that looked like he's trying to sort me for real. Hell, he opened today stating I was a SR for him, then when I posted he immediately responded in a way that shows he's not convinced of that declared SR on me.

A50, ugh.

That’s the scummiest post I’ve ever seen, now’s not the time. I’m already waffling on your pancakes

Is this how you (dear reader) would responding to someone you had just stated as one if only 3 slots in your solve?

Panth, Dave, A50 is where I’m at.

There's so much more I could say about why this is SCUM!FLAVOR LEAF, but it would require me to go dig his ISO for more details.

Oh, and his positioning on the Creature wagon too. NOT the fact he voted Creature (although that come into play shortly) but the timing and him being the L-1 (separated by 3 others from Maria on the wagon).

As for the vote itself, you gotta ask yourself why Creature but not DEB? What has DEV done that is so mych different than Creature/Volxen? And to note Volxen/Creature WAS NOT A TOWN SLOT! I mean, if it was then MAYBE I would have bought the reluctance, but the fact it flipped NON-TOWN makes me wonder why he is still actively protecting DEB (and why Maria also did! Wait.. why SCUM!Maria (in case you forgot already) was so against a DEB lynch).

@FL: You had better lynch or NK me. Ank is untouchable for you as long as I'm alive, not because you can't push her, but because if I get my hands on that Vig shot you're dead, and that's a promise.

[davesaz]

Nice talk, means nothing while your vote is in the wrong place.

[Gammagooey]

@nom if you think Ank and FB are scum, you should vote Ank today. We can free up A50 to vig, which forces scum to pick between dave, the doctors, and A50.

@EP - this was I think right before you posted about FL's potential slip post - were you talking with FL about voting elsewhere in the group topic or earlier that real life day that you remember? I'm leaning towards it making more sense that Maria was considering voting FL and pushing it (as she had indicated she might in her in-thread posts around then) and FL-scum wanting her to stay on Ank for now, but you're the one with the actual context to go along with it - you seemed pretty focused on Ank atm and I don't see why FL asks you to be on one of Ank/Maria there when you're already on them unless there is some indication of indecision or consideration of changing your vote there that FL would have seen.

[Almost50]

I know I'm going to feel like Sisyphus here, but the correct play is to lynch FL. I don't care if EP uses his Lightning Rod or not afterwards (would prefer him not to, but it's his call).

VOTE: FL

P-edit: I am furious at you too, dave. In fact..

VOTE: dave

You are still like 90% Town in my eyes, but hell if I care. You want to play your way? Fine. I'll throw and blame it on you.

VOTE: FL

^^ Actual thought process in real time.

[davesaz]

Very interested in discussion relating to 6780.
Subtle reminder that it's possible to make strong points with few posts...

What sort of discussion are you looking for regarding 6780? I didn't see any new material + most of your points are effectively, "it's a dice roll" or "we'll have to wait to see."

I see it as mostly new material.
Maybe 90% of the thread has been a never ending series of 1v1 with practically no wholistic view imo.
Only one of the pairs is a dice roll, the A50/ank where any of the 3 likely outcomes is possible and I haven’t been able to dig deep enough. A50’s most recent leans strong town so I’m almost down to ank or nobody in that group.

[davesaz]

I'm going to break one of my favorite personal guidelines here. ^**

VOTE: Flavor Leaf

Spoiler: **

That guideline being, always follow the mechanically optimum path

[Gammagooey]

I'm going to break one of my favorite personal guidelines here. ^**

VOTE: Flavor Leaf

Spoiler: **

That guideline being, always follow the mechanically optimum path

You mentioned you townread FL independent of his role before Almost and my (and EP's) posts about FL

Can you give a brief post on why you did and which posts since then changed your mind?

Also don't quicklynch FL before Ank gets to do the posting she wanted to do but since we've still got 10 players and 6 to lynch that's not an immediate issue

[kuribo]

vote: Flavor Leaf

I'm bout to head into work, but on my break I'll share some stuff Xtoxm posted about FL this morning

[kuribo]

unvote

Hold up no shenanigans till then

[EspressoPatronum]

@nom if you think Ank and FB are scum, you should vote Ank today. We can free up A50 to vig, which forces scum to pick between dave, the doctors, and A50.

@EP - this was I think right before you posted about FL's potential slip post - were you talking with FL about voting elsewhere in the group topic or earlier that real life day that you remember? I'm leaning towards it making more sense that Maria was considering voting FL and pushing it (as she had indicated she might in her in-thread posts around then) and FL-scum wanting her to stay on Ank for now, but you're the one with the actual context to go along with it - you seemed pretty focused on Ank atm and I don't see why FL asks you to be on one of Ank/Maria there when you're already on them unless there is some indication of indecision or consideration of changing your vote there that FL would have seen.

My 5 posts before his potential slip were all 100% clear I was staying on Ank. FL was suggesting FB or nom as an alternative to Ank, but I told him I was staying on Ank. I said something to the effect of, 'at least with MariaR and nom there's some possibilities of them flipping town or scum... with Ank, it's 100% scum.'

Him telling me he needed my vote on Ank or Maria doesn't make a lot of sense in the context of me being so confident on my Ank read.

[davesaz]

You mentioned you townread FL independent of his role before Almost and my (and EP's) posts about FL

Can you give a brief post on why you did and which posts since then changed your mind?

Why the TR? I'm susceptible to a reasonableness and activity bias. In the absence of things that trigger me, I tend to townread people who seem to be actively sorting and seem to be reasonable. FL's specific behavior toward me this game has fluctuated between near-buddying and scumreads in a way that felt like natural progression. Basically the good put him above the line and there wasn't anything noticeable to pull him back below.

What changed? I tend to dismiss "slips" as evidence because (1) I have a non-scientific feeling that they are pointed out by scum more often than town and (2) even when town point them out they tend to be much ado over nothing. One solitary ", Maria" felt too nit picky to me. A pattern of behavior is something else entirely. Especially if it matches up temporally with in-game events in a suspicious way.