Astronaut wrote:Seol wrote:Astronaut wrote:Just because you decided three days ago that I am to be lynched, that doesn't mean that the rest of town agree.
Huh? Where does that "three days ago" come from?
Well, how about:
Seol wrote:When I believe I'm right, such as I do now (and did yesterday, and the day before) I will push my views very strongly until someone gives me a reason to rethink. Right now, Astro is the right lynch.
Ah, sorry, I always read "day" as "game day". Yes, three days ago I was sure you were the right lynch, and I'm still sure, but that's my opinion. Let me point out that you have three votes (one off lynch) a fourth person is suggesting you suicide, and the only other remaining player is probably your scum-buddy. The rest of the town seems to agree to a fair extent, actually.
Astronaut wrote:Seol wrote:If you don't think you're a good lynch, then maybe it would be an idea to respond to my arguments against you?
And what are your arguments? A) I'm scummy, B) I have a questionable voting pattern and C) I don't want to suicide? As I've been telling you for the last couple of days, there's not much to do about A) and B),
So let me get this right - your official position on those is you have nothing to say in your defence? I thought that was what you were saying, but I wanted to make sure I had it right.
Astronaut wrote:as for C), I think I explained that in my last post.
Astronaut, in the aforementioned last post, wrote:Why don't we have a look at things from my perspective? I kill myself, you lose a pro-towner and have to do a new lynch with no new info. I don't kill myself, we go into night (possibly gaining new info) and then we do the lynch.
I've already elaborated on this, but I'll repeat myself in a nice concise manner. All of this is assuming you are town, and there are two Mafia left, as if there's just one Mafia left the situation is strictly better for the town:
You kill yourself, we lose a pro-towner and have to do a new lynch with the only additional info being that you are indeed a townie. However, as you're dead, that lynch can't be you, so it stands a chance of hitting scum.
We lynch you, we lose a pro-towner and are 3 town to 2 Mafia and lose.
We no-lynch, we lose a pro-towner and have to do a new lynch with the only additional info being the scum's nightkill choice (see later on for my thoughts on the possibility of there being any more useful information). The next day we lynch you and lose.
Currently you have three votes. Half the town - including
both
cop-cleared players remaining - think you're scum. It's not hyperbole to say you're on the verge of being lynched, especially as you don't seem to be able to defend yourself or even suggest a good alternative lynch. Hell, by voting no-lynch you've put yourself in a position where you
can't
argue for an alternative lynch.
Furthermore - and this is a new argument that's only just come to light, we do get useful information from your suicide. You were on three votes, and both Sineish and Windslicer posted after you. If we had two Mafia, and either of them had voted then, that would have won them the game. Therefore, if you're town, that either clears both Sineish and Windslicer or there's only one Mafia left, which is actually really useful information. Therefore, we both get better information and we eliminate an almost inevitable game-losing mislynch if you suicide.
But, of course, you can't and won't.
Astronaut wrote:Seol wrote:Astronaut wrote:If I'm being lynched tomorrow it probably doesn't matter if we wait one day, but that's no reason not to play by the book. I'm looking for an over-night miracle, there might be pro-town power roles at work that you and I don't know of. Or maybe you do know of them, you just don't want to give them time to act because you're the godfather. Either way, we know the mafia are capable of one kill each night, but we don't know what town are capable of. Yes, I know we did the mass claim, but there are times when it is beneficial for a pro-town not to reveal his abilities.
Oh right - so it's not a theoretical argument about the odds (the "by-the-book" play, which I've already said I don't think applies here), like you've been arguing before, it's a vague hope for an unclaimed power-role that we have no evidence exists?
It's both the theoretical argument about the odds(the "by-the-book" play, which I'd like to hear why you think doesn't apply here),
Because those numbers are contrived to the point of being useless - they refer to a theoretical situation where everyone is looking equally suspicious, which doesn't reflect the current situation. If everyone did stand a 1/6 chance of being lynched, and we had no information on which to base that lynch, you'd be 100% correct. However, what information we have indicts you, and I can't think of anything that could happen overnight that would change my mind about you being the correct lynch. If you're the correct lynch, then there's no reason to no-lynch now.
I could just as easily argue that, if we no-lynch and there are two Mafia left, it would only take one townie voting for another townie to lose the game whereas at the moment it would take two townies to vote for another townie to lose the game, therefore we're in a safer position lynching today. I think that argument is actually slightly less fatuous, but it's still not a good argument.
Astronaut wrote:and it's the vague hope of an unclaimed power role.
Seol wrote:The only circumstance in which no-lynching is superior to your suiciding for the town is if you are a power-role. If that's what you're hinting towards here, quite frankly, I don't buy it.
Bah, how obvious does one have to be... I'm no power role, I made an honest claim. But in case you didn't notice, we had no nightkill on night seven. Which means they targetted Vesuvan, or there is a power role out there. I know which one I find more plausible.
I'd completely forgotten about that. However, I don't think it makes any difference - one of the following is true:
1) Something prevented the kill at its source (eg roleblocker, redirector who redirected to Vesuvan).
2) Something prevented the kill at its target (eg doctor, self-protect [this includes the Mafia having targeted Ves] - and I agree that in this situation it is correct for the role to not claim their ability).
3) There was no kill attempt to prevent - there was a deliberate no-kill.
Let's assume one of the first two is true. Two things could happen at night - another kill could be prevented, or the kill could go through.
What if the kill is prevented - what does that tell us? It only helps us in one case - case number 1, where the roleblocker/redirector/whatever proves who's scum (which has been used successfully behind a lynch once already this game, on Thok). If that was the case, then that's our explanation for the night 7 missing kill too... in which case why wouldn't the blocker have told us already, yesterday, netting us a scum? On that basis, I think we can discount case number 1.
In case 2, all we have is a no-lynch night with no kills, which puts us back where we are now, other than the knowledge that either there is a doc or a self-protecting role in the game, or the scum skipped their kill again. That information doesn't help us with our lynch. If that's the miracle you're hoping for, all it amounts to is effectively being as if we didn't no-lynch in the first place.
If the kill goes through, though, the situation is no different to the one with no hidden role, so we revert to standard no-lynch arguments. Even if there is a power-role out there (based on the night 7 no-death), it's not the sort of role that would help us in a no-lynch situation.
Good mornin' to ya'll.
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