In post 724, chauchaudotcom wrote:Why didn't you choose new targets N2 if you didn't manage to get a QT night one? Assuming you kept your one shot, wouldn't you be able to submit new targets?
Oh no. The idea is that I send in who I want to neighborize and we get a QT the following night.
I would only have kept my shot if the person who I got the QT with died the night I sent in my results or something like that.
Lannister - I was pretty sure Nova wasn't fakeclaiming, since the inventor role would be a ridiculous claim. The VC doesn't reflect that since I didn't get to post after his claim (the day had already ended when I got home to check the thread).
Game(s) where I have in fact been the last survivor, or been among the last survivors: 1
In post 719, House Lannister wrote:Chau: we asked the mod because we didn't understand how you could have seen our three targets when we got a "no result". That's why we also asked him what would our result be if we had been roleblocked or if our target had been visited by a ninja.
Here's the problem I have. I claimed at 1:11pm. You responded at 2:28pm. It just seems like a really short time frame given how long it took for mod to get back to me. But that's probably more of my paranoia then anything. A watcher tracker combo just seems too strong to me so I'm starting to get weary of believing anything =.= But I can't see why you would confirm my role as scum though. So. Let's see what we have.
Town Inventor
Town Doctor
Town Tracker
Town Watcher
Mafia Goon
Mafia Rolecop
Mafia Roleblock
Which might be balanced, but then throw in:
1-Shot Vig
1-Shot Neighbor
If 1-shot vig is town, then probably another mafia PR.
unvote
I don't want a lynch yet. Let's discuss first.
So the thing about LS is this. His claim didn't match my results. But then I kept thinking about it. Aren't scum typically super-self aware? So there's no way a scum LS wouldn't make sure to match my list. If we're seriously considering the possibility of a ninja, then chk would be the person. That's only if LS is telling the truth. Bah *flips table*
But anyway, reason I want to wait for a lynch, maybe we should continue with the popcorn claim so we can deal with all claims today. Thoughts?
im not 1 shot, i've already explained why i didn't shoot
In post 677, Lastsurvivor wrote:I was a one-shot neighborizer. I chose three people and was randomly given a QT with one of them to use the next night. If I didn't get a QT then I'd still have my shot...however, once I got the QT the shot was gone.
N1 I chose {Nova, Jal, chkflip}. Nova I chose in hopes to convince him that I was town despite his silly thoughts otherwise. Jal because I trusted her and thought we could discuss things. Chkflip because I wanted to find out wtf his problem was yesterday D1.
If chauchau targeted you on N1, he would have been able to see all of your buckshot role targets.
In post 673, chauchaudotcom wrote:
I am Town Tracker. I get to choose three people to track and see who they go to but do not get to see who visits who. Note, I only track who they go to, not who they target.
N1 Results: HavingFitz, Rob13 and Lastsurvivor visited inte, NovaDragon, Jal, Method and Chauchaudotcom.
We believe chauchau is indeed a Tracker because he listed all of our Buckshot targets for N2.
Therefore, you have to be lying.
Let it never be said that House Lannister does not reward those who serve it.
Hydra Account: Zar +
In post 724, chauchaudotcom wrote:Why didn't you choose new targets N2 if you didn't manage to get a QT night one? Assuming you kept your one shot, wouldn't you be able to submit new targets?
Oh no. The idea is that I send in who I want to neighborize and we get a QT the following night.
I would only have kept my shot if the person who I got the QT with died the night I sent in my results or something like that.
Lannister - I was pretty sure Nova wasn't fakeclaiming, since the inventor role would be a ridiculous claim. The VC doesn't reflect that since I didn't get to post after his claim (the day had already ended when I got home to check the thread).
If Pony isn't picking up your target you claimed n1 (chkflip), why is that? Is Pony scum? Is chkflip scum?
In post 728, House Lannister wrote:If chauchau targeted you on N1, he would have been able to see all of your buckshot role targets.
No shit.
There's some sort of scum role that messed with the results. I have no real clue what...maybe a bus driver or some sort of tweaked framer. My point being, with both a tracker and a watcher, there's gotta be some sort of role that's messing with the results you guys got. There's a lot of potential for a role like that to wreak havoc.
In post 729, PeregrineV wrote:If Pony isn't picking up your target you claimed n1 (chkflip), why is that? Is Pony scum? Is chkflip scum?
How am I supposed to know?
Chau is not scum, I already said that. I'm pretty sure chkflip is scum, but not because he didn't appear in the results. Just because he is.
VOTE: Chkflip
Game(s) where I have in fact been the last survivor, or been among the last survivors: 1
In post 728, House Lannister wrote:If chauchau targeted you on N1, he would have been able to see all of your buckshot role targets.
No shit.
There's some sort of scum role that messed with the results. I have no real clue what...maybe a bus driver or some sort of tweaked framer. My point being, with both a tracker and a watcher, there's gotta be some sort of role that's messing with the results you guys got. There's a lot of potential for a role like that to wreak havoc.
In post 729, PeregrineV wrote:If Pony isn't picking up your target you claimed n1 (chkflip), why is that? Is Pony scum? Is chkflip scum?
How am I supposed to know?
Chau is not scum, I already said that. I'm pretty sure chkflip is scum, but not because he didn't appear in the results. Just because he is.
VOTE: Chkflip
You would speculate based on the fact your role PM says town, and we are all looking at you like scum, because someone who is suspected of being VERY town has results that differ from yours.
If you expect me to buy chkflip=scum, you need to explain how your targets differed from Pony's. Or speculate, if you will.
In post 731, PeregrineV wrote:You would speculate based on the fact your role PM says town, and we are all looking at you like scum, because someone who is suspected of being VERY town has results that differ from yours.
If you expect me to buy chkflip=scum, you need to explain how your targets differed from Pony's. Or speculate, if you will.
My first instinct is a bus driver. A buck-shot variation I assume would be choose three people and two of those three are switched. Or perhaps choose two groups of three and one is chosen randomly from each group and they are switched. The latter scenario goes against the information given about the buckshot mechanic, but it makes more sense really.
Anyway, chkflip was swapped with someone. Maybe Method?
Game(s) where I have in fact been the last survivor, or been among the last survivors: 1
Well, we basically know we have a scum RB, a fourth scum with PR seems unlikely, especially one that has avoided being seen by our watchers/trackers.
Since both chau and LS confirmed their stories, we should go ahead and lynch one of them. House has confirmed chau's N2 results were pretty accurate, chau questioned fitz's claim, while LS supported the claim, while his own is questionable and unconfirmable. LS should be the lynch today, no matter what he says now under the spotlight.
We should probably go ahead with the mass claim (in case there is a bus driver or something, it's likely he'll be caught in either a lie with a fakeclaim or if he claims vanilla, gets caught by one of our watcher/tracker).
"Fuck you. I opened up my heart to you and you stabbed it a thousand times." - Gamma, to me, right before confessing to being the town vig and murdering my scum partner N1.
Also, if we accept the "being roleblocked" claim for N2 by Lannister as accurate (and I believe it is), then that qualifies as something that messes with watcher/tracker results. LastSurvivor's trying to avoid the noose by saying that there must be something to interfere with the results from chau and Lannister, which I totally agree with. He's ignoring the fact that we already know about a roleblocker, which fits that bill but doesn't help his case at all.
I think at this point we have to lynch Last Survivor. We can second guess ourselves all day long, just like I started to do with Fitz yesterday to some degree when I started hypothesizing about what should happen in case he flips town, but that will get us nowhere. At the end of the day, despite anything anyone says, the things he's said conflict with chau's night results and that's a problem. If we lynch LS and he flips scum, then awesome. If we lynch him and he flips town, then we know that either chau is scum (so unlikely) or there is a role out there such as a busdriver that is interfering with our watcher/tracker results in addition to a roleblocker. That by itself is useful information to have and would be worth the lynch of a scummy-looking VT to confirm if he does happen to flip town. I see this as a win-win. We either actually win (or at least lower the number of scummy-scums around here) or we get a very important piece of information about the reliability of our night results at a relatively low cost.
We now have three claimed VT's. If Chau targets us all and we go nowhere tomorrow night (with a kill still occurring), then we're more-or-less confirmed. I highly recommend this if we go into another night phase.
In post 687, PeregrineV wrote:Am reading an looking over claims. About had a heart attack when thread locked.
Reads fake. Claim or let us know why you haven't yet. Thanks.
"Fuck you. I opened up my heart to you and you stabbed it a thousand times." - Gamma, to me, right before confessing to being the town vig and murdering my scum partner N1.
Bah. Been super sick these past few days. Getting diseased after being free from finals. Sad.
Anyway, thanks for the clarification inte.
How come no one else is concerned about how OP town is right now? Even if LS is lying. We have a doc, vig, watcher, tracker and inventor. And let's assume there's a four man scum team, I don't see this balancing. But this is also my first theme game so I am fairly new to balancing weird roles but...asflakjf I have no idea.
Rob wrote:We now have three claimed VT's. If Chau targets us all and we go nowhere tomorrow night (with a kill still occurring), then we're more-or-less confirmed. I highly recommend this if we go into another night phase.
This is assuming I live. Which may not happen given what PV pointed out.
I do want to hear your thoughts on something. What do you think about PV's suggestion that mafia NK's aren't buckshot and are directed. I think this might change my view of the game a little. I was working off the assumption that the mafia NK's were buckshot but with such a claimed strong town, it doesn't seem likely anymore. And I went back to the original post by mod and it doesn't claim that all PRs are buckshot. There's a reason I'm asking all of this. But I want to hear everyone's thoughts about this matter first.
Buckshot vig is actually pretty anti-town. Vig already has a pretty high chance of hitting town, and spreading that out over three people only increases that chance. Inte was pretty smart to not shoot last night when we already had 2 scum dead.
Inventor may have been a red herring to add to the confusion of all the night actions. I think the scope does nothing except add to the number people targeting people overnight.
I'm not worried about how overpowered town is, and here's why:
We don't know a good deal about the scum team or even the town team. Many things to consider here:
- Town Inventor could do a whole lot of nothing. We have no guarantee the scope has any effect, or that that effect is a large benefit.
- We don't know how the Buckshot mechanic applies to scum PRs. What if Mafia Rolecop worked in a similar way to Town Watcher/Tracker and they choose three people and get back how many non-VTs were in that bunch? That would be crazy powerful, potentially. These are things we can only speculate about, but it has a huge impact on the power of the scum team.
- We don't know if all scum PRs follow the buckshot mechanic. It's possible, for example, that there kill is not buckshot. I don't think there's much use speculating over all this. It wastes our time and we will never get a clear answer.
- There could be four scum.
- The full vig claim could be a fake claim to draw an NK. Inte could have chose not to fire a second shot because he doesn't have one.
- Doc could not be 100% effective. We don't know if he's a normal doc.
This is what I came up with in like 5 minutes. This is by no means an exhaustive list. I could go on for a very long time. The reality is that we don't know the setup of the game or how the mod balanced it. We won't know that until the end-game because some things can only be speculated. I do not think that inte, chau, or Lannister are lying (other than possibly inte lying about full vig vs. one-shot). I'm not going to change that opinion based on setup speculation because I don't think setup speculation is useful in a game that has such a unique mechanic as this one.
In post 738, chauchaudotcom wrote:I do want to hear your thoughts on something. What do you think about PV's suggestion that mafia NK's aren't buckshot and are directed. I think this might change my view of the game a little. I was working off the assumption that the mafia NK's were buckshot but with such a claimed strong town, it doesn't seem likely anymore. And I went back to the original post by mod and it doesn't claim that all PRs are buckshot. There's a reason I'm asking all of this. But I want to hear everyone's thoughts about this matter first.
Don't really like to speculate with mod-guessing to have things blow up into my face later; but a general mod guideline I've gotten from reviewers for games I've designed (since I tend to like building quirky setups) is that making mechanics that trample with the Scum Kill would give them a serious disadvantage. ~Zar
Let it never be said that House Lannister does not reward those who serve it.
Hydra Account: Zar +
In post 738, chauchaudotcom wrote:How come no one else is concerned about how OP town is right now? Even if LS is lying. We have a doc, vig, watcher, tracker and inventor. And let's assume there's a four man scum team, I don't see this balancing. But this is also my first theme game so I am fairly new to balancing weird roles but...asflakjf I have no idea.
Well, the only game I can relate to here is "Murder in The Louvre", which had about the same about of players than this one.
The town was all-roled, including a Vig, a Forensic Investigator, a Tracker, a Doctor, a Bodyguard, At least 2 FlavorCops, A Dreamer, what have you. The scumteam on the other hand had a Charmer (combined RoleCop + Guard), and a Posessor (a modified Framer that could fool the Tracker). Still, the game did have multiple parties (including some crazy Untargettable Survivor) and perhaps the most OP Serial Killer I've seen in a long time.
Has anyone here played other Phillammon modded games? Are his games normally heavy in power?
~Zar.
Let it never be said that House Lannister does not reward those who serve it.
Hydra Account: Zar +
I had the chance to briefly discuss the claim business with EP last night, we're still trying to sort it out.
We both agree that unless chauchau is a medium in Real Life he HAS to be a Tracker; we don't see how he could have put our targets correctly in his N2 list otherwise. Granted, this doesn't mean he's town for sure; but we think this makes him least likely to be a Goon Partner to NS/fitz in the scenario of a 3-member scumteam.
~ Zar
Let it never be said that House Lannister does not reward those who serve it.
Hydra Account: Zar +
This is a really long post, I'm going to divide it.
Since I'm a bit lost at to what the hell is going on here, I decided to look into the vote interactions on Day one. Below is the summary of the Vote counts for the Whole Day One Phase. This content is 100% Zar; EP hasn't been much around and we've barely been able to discuss the claiming. So I'm publishing my raw analysis.
The first thing I'm a bit paranoid about the Traitor bomb dropped earlier by I can't remember whom... I tend to think Traitors go out of their way to let buddies in despair know they're not alone, so I'm not willing to discard the posibility of the traitor drop being a signal.
MOD: please double/triple check your counts before posting, I encountered several mistakes along this summary that you were carrying, and they had been pointed out before.
PART I:
Day two was a very short Day Phase driven by uncovering Fitz' lie; so I want to focus on the interactions here first to scrutinize everyone.
The interactions between drmyshotgun and fitz point away from them being partners, actually. Looking through the vote counts and the little yada-yada fitz provided I'm willing to put chauchau's slot in the town/not Mafia with fitz pile; Based on his behavior here, I don't think Fitz would have been aggressive enough to put a partner in danger so early on day one.
Truth is, Fitz first two post/comments on drmyshotgun in #15 and #35 does not look like the kind of attack a goon would push onto another. Adding to this is drmyshotgun's countervote. Does not ring to me like early distancing. Scum Fitz with drmyshotgun would've/could've found something else to hop by rather than keep his vote clung to this slot all through close to post #176.
Void's post on ProHawk doesn't tell us much since we already have ProHawk's alignment. Noticing, however that Method is the only living player that remains from ProHawk's early wagon.
The reasoning behind Void's vote on Rob13 strikes as kind of an opportunistic hop. His response to Rob in #88 does not strike me like the kind of argument partners would have in thread. The tone is aggressive and dismissing. Void's #94 also discourages me from thinking Rob could be a third member for their scumteam; Void's attentive lineup is convenient and works for lining up either's death to pursue the other; I don't think a Goon would be so eager to shut the door for themselves so early on.
Fitz swings in a FoS on Method, the way I see it, the soft suspicion Fitz makes them possible partners in a rising wagon. (Noticing that at this point all of the players within Method's wagon are now dead (so far, all have been innocent).
Still think Nobody Special's jump into Toon Fighter/PeregrineV in #122 makes them less likely to be Goon Partners. So willing to rule him out as the Hypothetical Third Mafia Killer.
~ Zar.
Let it never be said that House Lannister does not reward those who serve it.
Hydra Account: Zar +
For a second, toying with the theory of the Vig being scum (Assuming Phillammon was an evil-mod that gave the scumkill a Buckshot Vig.)
I believe inte is a vig based on him targetting ProHawk. If the scumteam had nothing to fear with Vig-shot they wouldn't need to remove him. Plus, inte calling fitz out on meta and fitz's reaction to it strikes me it as improbable to come from a potential partner. Adding to this is NS's willingness to get inte lynched. So, he's also unlikely to be a hypoThird Member.
VC#16 is the time by which the steam on fitz starts to build up, so will look into that:
Spoiler: Vote Count #17-23
Rob13 unvotes
Rob13 Votes Nova
Chauchau votes Nova
: inte, House Lannister, Method- (L-4)
(3) Not Voting:
havingfitz
,
Jal
,
Void/NS
As the fitz votes pile up, he hops into the Method Wagon rather than the Rob wagon with his vote in #448. I could see Fitz's behavior here like an attempt to spread the wagons further. The problem with this is that at least to me, Rob doesn't really fit like a partner to Void, at least from the earlier interactions between these slots; Fitz could just have felt pressured to look busy and vote off the big alternate wagon to avoid looking survivalistic.
Also, the way fitz reacted to Method's vote strikes me as not coming from a likely partner either, especially on the tone. chkflip's comment about Fitz on #418 however looks like an early attempt to set base for a future vote. Noteworthy is that chkflip has no outstanding interactions with either NS or fitz.
Here we have four wagons, and we know that at least one of them was on scum. I would expect a hypothetical third buddy to attempt to dissolve the fitz wagon by keeping his vote elsewhere, in any of the viable non-partnered alternatives.
Slots with non-outstanding voting off the fitz wagon here include: CommieX/chkflp & LastSurvivor.
Spoiler: Vote Counts #25-27
Vote Count #25-#26 (based on #471 and #475)
Rob13 votes fitz in #465
In hindsight, Nobody Special seemed to be looking for an opportunity to decide whether or not it be fruitful to hop into the Fitz wagon. He mentions two other slots that we have no alignment from; but they were all wagons at the time. The only wagon he didn't consider looking into was ProHwawk's, but he's confirmed innocent.
~ Zar.
Let it never be said that House Lannister does not reward those who serve it.
Hydra Account: Zar +
Chkflip proceeds to vote off the fitz wagon into the other alternatives, quickly following fitz' pattern of votes. This behavior makes me think chkflip could well be the missing Goon or a possible Traitor.
Spoiler: Vote Count #29
Method unvotes in #501.
chauchau votes NobodySpecial #506
NovaDragon votes LastSurvivor in #507
inte votes LastSurvivor in #508
chkflip votes LastSurvivor in #509
Given that based on interactions I've made hypothetical Partnerships between PeregrineV, Method, Rob13, The Pony, and the confirmed scum least likely, I'm left with looking into the votes of both chkflip and LastSurvivor, who went out of their way to ignore both wagons.
Spoiler: Vote Count #30
chkflip switches back to NovaDragon in #512
Method votes LastSurvivor in #514 based on NovaDragon's role being confirmable
ProHawk switches to LastSurvivor in #516
chkflip votes LastSurvivor again in #521
fitz votes Jal in #525
Jal votes NS in #536
Rob votes NS in #540
PeregrineV votes NS in #547
inte votes NS in #548
Actually, I think Method's reasoning for his vote #514 makes him least likely the hypo-third partner of NS+Fitz. chkflip goes back to vote LS rather than either of NS/Fitz. Fitz evidently tries to vote away from his partner, but ends up being caught by the momentum and being unable to do anything to save him so he hammers away in the next post.
V/LA until Thursday morning (12/27) for various holiday plans. There may be some posting from me during that time, but I can't guarantee it.
I don't really have much to add at this point. Everything I could say is contingent on how LS flips, since the LS flip will either end the game or give us a lot of important new information. Haven't read Zar's wall yet, and I don't think I'll be getting to that until after my V/LA.
