Newbie 694 (over)

[magicrabbit]

I do.

Unvote Vote Xtoxm

[hambargarz]

I believe that's a hammer

[hasdgfas]

The players conversed and all said
someone must get strung up by his head
it took them a bit
to choose who'd get hit
and decided on one who'd be dead

The one that they chose was Xtoxm
he did not fight nor did box 'em
and once he'd been hung
he sang as he swung
and said "Woe be the life of a

Townie

"





If you want it in non-limerick form(but why would you want that?):

Xtoxm

has been lynched. He was a

Townie

.

It is now Night 2. Night actions please. I'll be finding a replacement for ClockworkRuse overnight and won't be ending Night until I've found one.


EDIT: fuzzylightning replaces ClockworkRuse

Night actions due on 1/28

[hasdgfas]

extending deadline for night actions by 24 hours due to unforseen V/LA

[hasdgfas]

sorry about the slight delay.

The sun rises, and you see that someone else is missing.

It's magicrabbit. You look in his house, and it's plain as can be.

magicrabbit has been killed night 2. He was a

vanilla townie

It is now day 3. With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. Get to it.

[hambargarz]

Care to report your findings CarnCarn?

[fuzzylightning]

Hello everyone, currently working on a full re-read of the game, have read the beginning (first 15 or so pages) and the end (last 7 or 8). I believe that is enough to get a decent enough read on people because I don't really get a good read on people until I see how they interact with people while I am observing, so replacing and re-reading doesn't really help me all that much. But, enough of my introduction. Let's play some mafia.

I realize that the person I am replacing had lurked, or disappeared, toward the end of the day. I have not taken the liberty of looking up his last post on this website, because he decided to play the game the way that he wanted, but oh well, just makes it more interesting for me. I also understand that I will have to answer for CR's actions to a point, so in order to expedite this game and get it under way, at least from my perspective, I would appreciate if those left in this game could direct questions towards me about maybe why my predecessor acted the way that he did. It just makes it easier, this way I don't have to wade through nearly 900 posts to figure out what everyone wants to know.

As far as who I think is scum right now? All that is left is:
CarnCarn- claimed Cop (if it's to be believed then that's confirmed town)
Hambargarz- slight scum read based on end of day play, basically being scared to hammer, having already drawn suspicion for other actions, i could understand why you might be reluctant to hammer but i just didn't like the feel of it
GIEFF- Pro-town read throughout
Amished- my top suspect right now, he attacks saying there is faulty logic, now as i have said, i haven't done a complete re-read yet, but i plan on it.

Right now, I am seeing a Ham/Amished scum team but that's just individual reads, i will have to go through and see how they interacted with each other, or how they lacked interaction between them.

One thing we need to be aware of is that we are now in LyLo so please be careful with your vote. One misplaced vote and its a quick L-1 and hammer from the scum team that we know is still left.

Once again, I realize this is an early wall of text but it's necessary with the point of the game I am replacing into, but I just ask that you re-post anything you would like me to address regarding my predecessor, and I will answer anything to the best of my ability but I do not know CR and have never played a game with him, so I can't even speculate as to why he did anything, I can just try and interpret his play.

[GIEFF]

... this is nuts. Well, if everybody is telling the truth, I'm pretty sure I know who the scum actually are... /is so confused

Well, if CC is telling the truth, and I still think you're townie, xtoxm is town, and the innocent on MR, that leaves me, ham and CR. Obviously I know I'm not scum, so that would leave ham and CR. CR lurking for a while now (haven't really seen a case against him) and ham are the only two left. Ham was #2 on my list for a while, but with CC's claim and result, my #1 and the person I thought about also voting for are both cleared. That would leave ham and then probably xtoxm for people I have a read on, and I plan on looking more into CR tonight.

I'll be off for a while tonight (be back later) but I'm going out to eat and visit a friend. With both @ l-2 now (thanks gieff for unvoting) it should be safe until I get back.

You knew that Xtoxm was town. You know that I am town. You are scum, and you saw the lylo-endgame coming, and tried to prepare for it.

There was no reason for a townie to believe Xtoxm's VT claim, but you believed it instantly. Did anybody else see Xtoxm's claim and suddenly think to themselves "oh, well if he's telling the truth, then I know who the scum is?"

And if you really believed in CC'c cop-claim, why did you continue to vote for MR? You only changed your vote to CR after I questioned you about why you suddenly became so suspicious of him after not expressing much suspicion before.




magicrabbit, I wish you hadn't changed your vote. I'd like to think I would have voted for CR, but I probably still would have ended up voting Xtoxm. I would have appreciated the extra day to think about it as I asked for, though.

[Amished]

From my reads of both of you (especially later on when I was more and more sure of xtoxm) I believed his townie claim cause I thought he acted extraordinarily townie. Are you saying I shouldn't believe you if you say you're townie? What kind of reasoning is that? If you almost believed that xtoxm was townie, and you believed that CC was cop, lynching either of them was going to make this a lylo situation.

As to my vote, I knew MR was going to be in no danger of a quick-lynch, and I didn't know who else I wanted to vote for. So instead of unvoting unnecessarily I left it there while I debated who was more scum like to see if my read on them was correct.

I believe I've stated why I was not as suspicious of CR before on several occasions, and it comes down to the way he posted at the time. He wasn't lurking, and I didn't notice his lack of answers so much as I was not asking many of him.

Fuzzy, welcome to the game and hope you're able to get caught up soon. Personally, I'm interested on your views on whether or not you view CR's posts to answer much of anything or not. Also, I would encourage you to write as much as you want, as that wasn't much of a wall of text compared to stuff that others (myself included) have posted.

[GIEFF]

When I voted for you yesterday, you said:

I can do it too. What is that supposed to mean at all? I haven't seen you have a case against me (nor I against you) but then there's a vote out of nowhere? ... I don't even know what to say. I'm baffled, but then I don't know if I should be offended, patient to find out reasoning, or what. It doesn't make any sense to me, especially considering the current situation.

I haven't seen you have a case against CR but then there's a vote out of nowhere?

You also said the following to ham:

And then we come back to ham, who says his suspicions haven't even really been on you lately (why no unvote ham?) but apparently not really?

So you ask ham why he didn't unvote, yet you don't unvote someone cleared by a cop investigation?

More things you said about Xtoxm before saying that you believe his VT claim:

I tend to agree with GIEFF that you (xtoxm)were not only derailing a lynch on MR as to yourself as well. I think this is slightly scummier than normal, as you can try to prove yourself innocent (like a normal townie would try to) and still keep suspicion high on another person that you find suspicious.

I guess I would be ok with either lynch, but with CarnCarn's recent actions, I'd lean towards him being a lynchee, with mr/xtoxm being tomorrow higher on my scum list.

The above quote was the last thing you said about Xtoxm before his VT claim, at which point you claimed to have worked out who the scum were.

A VT claim should not be enough for someone to go from being high on your scumlist to cleared town.


You knew Xtoxm was town. You are scum.

[Amished]

I was speculating, if you go back to my worked out post, I said *if* people were telling the truth. *After* the VT claim, I saw so many things from xtoxm, after ham and me talking about lynching him (there's a bit of time that you're omitting) that swayed me to the firm belief that he was telling the truth. After I truly believed him, then I looked at who was left.

If you go back to my iso post 34 (right after my speculation) I even state there that it's a big if. I didn't vote for him til after my iso post 44, which looks like a case to me. Are you missing these?

As to ham's not unvoting, I wanted to hear his reasoning. It's stuff like that that I try to do to get a read on the people behind the roles to see if I can believe them or not about certain points in their case.

If I see a claim, I will go on looking for evidence before and after the claim, and try to gauge their reactions. After xtoxm's VT claim, I felt his reactions were so townie that I crossed him off my scum list. Obviously my read was correct, so you're accusing me of seeing something that either you didn't believe or didn't see as quickly as I saw.

I could damn near guarantee that xtoxm was town. I am not scum.

[GIEFF]

Obviously my read was correct, so you're accusing me of seeing something that either you didn't believe or didn't see as quickly as I saw.

... or you knew he was town because you are scum.

I didn't vote for him til after my iso post 44, which looks like a case to me. Are you missing these?

In the post immediately before your iso 44, I found your behavior toward CR suspicious. You said you re-read him twice, and didn't say anything scummy.

Forgive me if I don't give you brownie points for only making a case AFTER I said it was suspicious that you hadn't.



Waiting to hear from CarnCarn.

[Amished]

I believe I already explained my thoughts regarding my delayed case against CR. Both times I said I was going to reread him we were close to lynching other people. Also, have I ever withheld my opinion if somebody asked for it? No. I take extra time out of other aspects in my life to try to give as much info about me and about others as I possibly can.

Question for you, GIEFF: Is it that hard to now believe xtoxm about his suspicions? He was telling the truth about how he felt mr was town, even before the cop innocent, if you're town, he's telling the truth about you, if CC is cop, he was believing and telling the truth about him, why can you not believe him about me? What about me makes me the exception to the rest of his read on the game?

I, too, am interested to hear from CC, and hope to hear about FL's analysis on the game. Ham, if you have any thoughts to add, I would also like to hear from you.

[GIEFF]

Are you trying to argue that because Xtoxm was town, he can't make mistakes?

You slipped up again. You pretty much just admitted to knowing that I am town, and seem to be admitting you know that CC is town.

If you were really town, for all you would know, both CC and I are mafia, and to use the argument "well Xtoxm was right about you two" would be very silly in that case.

[Amished]

Everyone can make mistakes, but so far I believe that xtoxm's beliefs were right. I didn't slip up at all, I firmly believe that you're town. If you're not, you deserve to win for fooling everybody. I'm relatively certain that CC is town, but I want to hear more out of him.

You're right, if I was mafia, it'd be completely stupid to admit that I "know" (quotations in bold if I could) who was who. I just have roles that I'm pretty damn sure that I know is occupied by who, which is why I'm slmost certain sure you're not scum, same as with xtoxm.

[hambargarz]

I think we are at lylo today so my complete thoughts on this day are:
GIEFF is pretty low on the scum list
CC could be lying (NKing MR to help his case) but I'm willing to risk believing him given that cop claiming first is generally quite risky for scum.

So if CC and GIEFF are indeed scum, they played quite well and deserve to win.

So from where I'm standing, that leaves just Amished and CR/Fuzzy as the scum pair.

which is why I'm slmost certain sure you're not scum, same as with xtoxm.

Somewhat of a scumtell in my opinion. Scum tend to be more certain of scummy-ness and townie-ness as they obviously have all the information.
A townie wouldn't put so much certainty on his convictions like that. Either you are a master genius at reading people or you are scum that already knows.

You also said you were so sure xtoxm wasn't scum before he was lynched. Why then didn't you mention anything? You DID mention that you were getting town reads from him, but your posting in no way reflected the level of certainty you are expressing now.

CC's report will reveal alot, so I'm waiting on him

[GIEFF]

CC hasn't posted in this game in 10 days (although almost half of that was night phase). He is active elsewhere on the site. I'd think a legitimate cop would be more eager to inform us of his results.

[CarnCarn]

CC hasn't posted in this game in 10 days (although almost half of that was night phase). He is active elsewhere on the site. I'd think a legitimate cop would be more eager to inform us of his results.

yo, I'll get to this later tonight. My activity has pretty much died site-wide.

[fuzzylightning]

Alright, some of these posts are way too long. I am working on reading the rest of the game and hope to have a post up by Wednesday at the latest. Sorry its taking so long, but I have limited computer use due to mine crashing, and school comes before mafia.

[hambargarz]

I would also wonder why CC posted, yet did not state his result, it takes a very small amount of time to do that and would help our discussion alot.

By saying something like "I'll get back to this" implies his post will take a while to compile. It takes no time to just state your night result and more time to fabricate one.
hmmm, fishy.

[fuzzylightning]

to be completely honest, I don't really think it takes all that much time to fabricate or state a result, as the cop you just send in a name and get a result back, really easy to do. he probably has more to say regarding everything, and is going to make one big post rather than many small ones

[GIEFF]

HOS: CarnCarn

[CarnCarn]

Alright well, just got out of lab and things have been really hectic last week or 2. Don't expect any change to that soon.

So, everyone wants a result. Me, too. I didn't get one. I investigated fuzzylightning and got no result. I simply got a note back saying that I had no result.

In any case, this is possible LyLo (not sure if a mislynch here results in automatic endgaming or not). I know there must be a doc in this game because there is no way for me to not get a result without a Mafia RB being in the game. And since there is a Mafia RB in the game, there must also be a doc.

I'm thinking massclaim, and then we'll have two confirmed innocents (well, technically only confirmed from my viewpoint, I guess; it really depends on how willing rest of town is to believe that I am cop). Your thoughts? This is probably LyLo, so holding back the info now isn't helping the town anymore. There are a few things for the town to think about here if a doc claims/doesn't claim:
- If a doc claims, either I and the doc are both innocent, or both lying scum. Analyze whether you think I and whoever the doc is are a likely scum pairing and come to a conclusion about whether we're both scum or both innocent.
- If a doc doesn't claim, then I'm lying scum (there can't be only a cop and a Mafia RB). Lynch me.
- A doc claims, but I'm lying about being RB'd. Well, this is the toughest situation and honestly there is nothing more that I could do to prove anything. I know, of course, that this scenario is wrong, but anyone who isn't me won't be able to rule it out as a possibility.

As for the dialogue between GIEFF and Amished on the last page, I'm not sure at all how GIEFF came to the conclusion that Amished "knows" anything about GIEFF from the post he quoted. He did say "Xtoxm is town" before Xtoxm was lynched, which is strange. And:

magicrabbit, I wish you hadn't changed your vote. I'd like to think I would have voted for CR, but I probably still would have ended up voting Xtoxm. I would have appreciated the extra day to think about it as I asked for, though.

This is also a bit strange. Why would you like to think you would have voted CR?

As for lynching Xtoxm, I was going to post this before he got lynched, but the thread was locked very quickly after the hammer:
I fully believed that Xtoxm was the best lynch at the time yesterday, because his fishing to lynch people pre-claim was just absurd coming from town. I asked him repeatedly to explain what protown motivation there would be for it and he NEVER explained. He was the correct lynch on a percentage play because I consider that a pretty huge scum-tell.

Anyway, back to the present.

I would also wonder why CC posted, yet did not state his result, it takes a very small amount of time to do that and would help our discussion alot.

I don't know if posting "No result" would really have the same effect and I honestly had a lot more to say about it than time would permit.

[hambargarz]

Going back to my thoughts on Amished and CR as a logical conclusion for being a scum pair. I've been looking back at their actions between each other. Amished could have easily have joined the wagons on either Xtoxm and CC on the previous day, he instead at the last minute attacked CR and almost got him lynched. It's either extreme bussing or one or both of them is town.

This would mean one or both of my 2 lesser suspected players are likely to be scum. I'm willing to believe CC for the time being which means my scum pair at the moment is GIEFF and CR. I agree a mass claim will be good, and may help me decide the validity of CC's claims.

Looking back it makes sense, We have limited attacks between the two, The Amished initiated wagon on CR with 2 confirmed townies on it, was initially opposed by GIEFF. In fact, I think GIEFF has attacked everyone BUT CR.

I don't know if posting "No result" would really have the same effect and I honestly had a lot more to say about it than time would permit.

Dunno, If I were a claimed cop and got no result, I would have blurted it out first post, but thats just me I guess.

HOS: CarnCarn

What's the HOS for?

[GIEFF]

Thanks, CC. I agree that the doctor should claim ASAP.

This is also a bit strange. Why would you like to think you would have voted CR?

Becuase Xtoxm is 100% townie at this point, and CR (now fuzzy) isn't; therefore, I should have chosen CR. I know this sort of thinking does us no good; I was just a bit upset that I didn't have the chance to think it over that I had asked for. I agree that Xtoxm looked extremely scummy for the majority of the game.

As for the dialogue between GIEFF and Amished on the last page, I'm not sure at all how GIEFF came to the conclusion that Amished "knows" anything about GIEFF from the post he quoted. He did say "Xtoxm is town" before Xtoxm was lynched, which is strange. And:

My first slight clue came from GIEFF. All along he's seemed like the most pro-town to me, and apparently to many other people. (Obviously only counting d1, as d2 would have no bearing on the NK). I felt that an experienced player would take away the most townie, leaving many slightly suspicious players for d2 to fight out. I've read this in a couple other theory threads around, and it's the general consensus among almost all the experienced and well known players out there. This led me to two conclusions: the mafia are probably less experienced (+1 good point to the IC's) and were looking to target a power role, which is probably better to take out than a townie in their opinion. Heck, if they got a power role, they'd be much better off, though it's a risk if they didn't (which they didn't).

Why didn't you consider the possibility that I wasn't killed because I am scum? And why did you assume the scum would assume I am NOT a power role? (You implied that not voting for me = targeting a power role).

I look like town. Scum likes to kill those who look like town. I was not targeted by scum. Assuming it was optimal play for scum to kill me (I don't necessarily agree, but Amished does), there are two possible explanations.

1. I lived because the scum played sub-optimally
2. I lived because I cannot die (i.e. I am scum)

Amished immediately focused on the first explanation, and gave town points to the IC's because he figured they would not play sub-optimally. The fact that he didn't even consider the second explanation makes me think he KNOWS it cannot be true.

Given the recent postings, I'm convinced now that if CC is lynched and flips town, Xtoxm is probably very likely to be scum. And if Xtoxm is lynched today and flips town, CC is very likely to be scum.

Does this logic still apply?