Pick Your Power II - Looks like the wine is gone (SCUM WIN)

[Pomegranate]

Official Vote Count

Players needed to lynch: 12

Bouncy.Bouncy

- 1 - RedCoyote - (L-11)

Dramonic

- 1 - TonyMontana - (L-11)

Fate

- 9 - Hoopla, Socrates, Ellibereth, Cobalt, Bouncy.Bouncy, Porkens, Faraday, Devotress, The1fifi - (L-3)

FeFiFoFum

- 2 - Jack, Fate - (L-10)

Jack

- 3 - Rayfrost, StrangerCoug, wolframnhart - (L-9)

wolframnhart

- 1 - curiouskarmadog - (L-11)

Players not voting: DocPotter, Dramonic, Farside, FeFiFoFum, Pomegranate

Hi, confirm and all.

Spyrex should already know from PYP 1, but

I will always be V/LA Friday afternoon until Saturday evening. It is a weekly V/LA

. I may be able to read the thread in hour or two, but don't count on it, because the V/LA will kick in soon, and I have other things to do.

[farside22]

okay so a bit of a look on the list and the talks thus far:


Jack votes TM when 2 other people had 1/1 as their number. Plus hoopla did announce in the thread the numbers she picked so........???


Question to TM and Dramonic why did you pick the same number has Hoopla when she stated what her numbers where in the sign up?

socrates

The scum doubled up on one of their picks, mark my words.

I disagree with this. I think maybe at the most 2 people in the scum group picked the same first number but I can't imagine they all did this then the likelihood of getting a PR goes down and why would scum not want to be in the best position for a PR?


Why fos socrates from FeFiFo?

watching the following of the fate wagon 10 to 1 scum is on it. People just gliding by with a bw vote.
*note to self look at bouncy

Jack what is with the single value number. Do you really think numbers picked from scum where 1 - 9 and no higher?

1fifi is right about eli.

vote: bouncy

(gut)

fos: socrates and jack

Just them saying scum would only pick the smaller numbers and soc saying he could see scum doing 2 of the same numbers so as not draw attention rubs me the wrong way.

[Jack]

I don't think that scum would only pick the 1-9 numbers. I was confused about what FeFi was saying. I thought he was saying scum would pick the smaller X numbers, but he probably was paraphrasing what hoopla said about the "only picked once" (singular) X numbers. His post still seems weird...

[FeFiFoFum]

i did mistype my post, I was agreeing with the before statement of hoopla, since scum could talk before hand they were allowed to make sure they didnt pick the same number

[Socrates]

socrates

The scum doubled up on one of their picks, mark my words.

I disagree with this. I think maybe at the most 2 people in the scum group picked the same first number but I can't imagine they all did this then the likelihood of getting a PR goes down and why would scum not want to be in the best position for a PR?

um, thats exactly what I said, Farside.

Did you think I said that all 5 members of the scum team picked the same X number? That would be madness.

[Hoopla]

People who are rejecting the concept of number analysis are idiots. It is as much wifom as vote/wagon analysis and other mainstream scumhunting techniques.

We know scum were able to coordinate before/during the draft (despite a few people pleading ignorance to this, some genuine, some probably not). Lets think about it logically though. Some people are trying to sweep this under the wifom rug, and although there are options for scum to take, some are illogical and detrimental to scum's win condition.

Optimum scum strategy is to spread your numbers across 5 different X values, and try to pick up as many of the powerful roles as possible. This is probably the easiest way to cripple the town, by getting power on your side. However, scum may suspect town will figure out what their optimum strategy is, which lowers the effectiveness, and in turn scum may choose to throw the town off. However, there is only so far they can go, before giving too many roles to the town is a negative net result for them.

The good news for town is, we can already pick out unlikely combinations of scumpairs/teams based purely on numbers. At the very most scum would have doubled numbers once - any more than that leaves them too far down the draft. And frankly, if they have done that I'm thrilled because our roles will probably catch them before they can the reap the benefits of illogical number partners.

Right now, the best assumption is that scum have spread across at least four different X numbers. The beauty of this is, if we can keep groups of 3/4 players alive, we have a solid chunk of

probably

town players. This forces scum to kill in these pools, the places where our good roles probably aren't.

Trust me, number analysis will win this game for us.

[Cobalt]

People who are rejecting the concept of number analysis are idiots. It is as much wifom as vote/wagon analysis and other mainstream scumhunting techniques.

We know scum were able to coordinate before/during the draft (despite a few people pleading ignorance to this, some genuine, some probably not). Lets think about it logically though. Some people are trying to sweep this under the wifom rug, and although there are options for scum to take, some are illogical and detrimental to scum's win condition.

Optimum scum strategy is to spread your numbers across 5 different X values, and try to pick up as many of the powerful roles as possible. This is probably the easiest way to cripple the town, by getting power on your side. However, scum may suspect town will figure out what their optimum strategy is, which lowers the effectiveness, and in turn scum may choose to throw the town off. However, there is only so far they can go, before giving too many roles to the town is a negative net result for them.

The good news for town is, we can already pick out unlikely combinations of scumpairs/teams based purely on numbers. At the very most scum would have doubled numbers once - any more than that leaves them too far down the draft. And frankly, if they have done that I'm thrilled because our roles will probably catch them before they can the reap the benefits of illogical number partners.

Right now, the best assumption is that scum have spread across at least four different X numbers. The beauty of this is, if we can keep groups of 3/4 players alive, we have a solid chunk of

probably

town players. This forces scum to kill in these pools, the places where our good roles probably aren't.

Trust me, number analysis will win this game for us.

uh, did you play the last game?

[Hoopla]

Right now, the best assumption is that scum have spread across at least four different X numbers.

The beauty of this is, if we can keep groups of 3/4 players alive, we have a solid chunk of

probably

town players.

This forces scum to kill in these pools, the places where our good roles probably aren't.

This might read ambiguously. I meant, if we keep groups of 3/4 players

with the same

number alive, it means there will always be mostly town there.

[Hoopla]

uh, did you play the last game?

No, but I skimmed it. The difference between that game and this one, is that scum

weren't

able to coordinate during the draft.

[Fate]

People who are rejecting the concept of number analysis are idiots. It is as much wifom as vote/wagon analysis and other mainstream scumhunting techniques.

We know scum were able to coordinate before/during the draft (despite a few people pleading ignorance to this, some genuine, some probably not). Lets think about it logically though. Some people are trying to sweep this under the wifom rug, and although there are options for scum to take, some are illogical and detrimental to scum's win condition.

Optimum scum strategy is to spread your numbers across 5 different X values, and try to pick up as many of the powerful roles as possible. This is probably the easiest way to cripple the town, by getting power on your side. However, scum may suspect town will figure out what their optimum strategy is, which lowers the effectiveness, and in turn scum may choose to throw the town off. However, there is only so far they can go, before giving too many roles to the town is a negative net result for them.

The good news for town is, we can already pick out unlikely combinations of scumpairs/teams based purely on numbers. At the very most scum would have doubled numbers once - any more than that leaves them too far down the draft. And frankly, if they have done that I'm thrilled because our roles will probably catch them before they can the reap the benefits of illogical number partners.

Right now, the best assumption is that scum have spread across at least four different X numbers. The beauty of this is, if we can keep groups of 3/4 players alive, we have a solid chunk of

probably

town players. This forces scum to kill in these pools, the places where our good roles probably aren't.

Trust me, number analysis will win this game for us.

Assumptions are bad. If someone flips scum in the (1, 1) group, should we lynch you based on your own policy? What about the other pairs?

You really think scum is going to shoot 'probable townies' (based only off number choices, I might add) in lieu of probable power roles?

Another problem is that "optimum scum strategy" is the

same

as optimum town strategy. I picked numbers I didn't think anyone else would pick, worked out pretty well for me.

There are a lot more town than scum. This obscures the data. So far, the only unlikely "team" we can rule out is: Hoopla, TonyMontana, AND Dramonic.

So if two flip scum the third is automatically cleared? Call me a purist, but I rather rely on other, more traditional techniques. Instead of "follow the numbers." Also, if one of the "doubled up teams" (Pomegranate+Faraday, WRM+fifi, etc.) flips scum, we're supposed to grill the other one?

I'm sure there is some merit to your theory, such as more scrunity based off of it, but it shouldn't be relied on too heavily.

@Farside: I agree there is scum on my wagon. I predicted either a Socrates wagon or myself, as having either of us (prob PR) claim would be beneficial to scum. Though if your 'gut' goes off based off two one-liners from Bouncyx2, I'd be amazed.

Unvote

Vote: The1fifi

For post #66. Assuming my plan is to be lynched, and rolefishing.

[Jack]

Hoopla, I was scum a while back in a game where everyone sent in information, and the scum could coordinate. The town spent the first five pages discussing it, and ended up concluding that one of my partners was innocent. I don't remember if the game stagnated after the setup talk was done, but it's always a risk. Like right now, how are you supposed to get a legitimate scum or town read off of this post?

If it's useful, it will be later in the game.

[Hoopla]

So if two flip scum the third is automatically cleared? Call me a purist, but I rather rely on other, more traditional techniques. Instead of "follow the numbers." Also, if one of the "doubled up teams" (Pomegranate+Faraday, WRM+fifi, etc.) flips scum, we're supposed to grill the other one?

You're not a purist. You're a drone incapable of applying critical thinking to a game of mafia - using wiki tells isn't playing mafia.

This game is a unique concept, rich with juicy information just ripe to be analysed, and you want to throw it away?

Assumptions are bad. If someone flips scum in the (1, 1) group, should we lynch you based on your own policy? What about the other pairs?

Again, I hate to break it to you, but your 'traditional scumhunting techniques' are based entirely on assumptions. Traditional concepts, such as bussing, stem entirely from guessing games back and forth between optimum scum strategy, and what town

thinks

optimum scum strategy is. Number choices are no different - you've just not encountered them before, and refuse to use your brain to figure it out and make rational predictions.

Another problem is that "optimum scum strategy" is the

same

as optimum town strategy. I picked numbers I didn't think anyone else would pick, worked out pretty well for me.

But scum have the advantage of

knowing

five sets of numbers before they enter, which can dramatically improve their chances of winning, or placing better overall compared to a random sample of five townies.

[Hoopla]

To respond to a couple of your questions;

1) If someone flips scum in the (1, 1) group, should we lynch you based on your own policy? What about the other pairs?

2) You really think scum is going to shoot 'probable townies' (based only off number choices, I might add) in lieu of probable power roles?

1) No, the opposite. As it means it's highly like the players in the '1' group are town. This is based on scum not having 2+ of their members bid the same number. I maintain, that scum will have spread their numbers across 4 (probably 5) different X numbers.

But I want to ask what you think. As scum, would you deliberately bid the same number as a teammate? How would you organise your team's number choices? Because you know if you picked the same numbers, it's automatically going to ruin your chances of good roles. Do you think it's likely scum doubled somewhere? Or they are spread across 5 different numbers?

2) If they were smart, yes. This would be a pretty bad situation to be stuck in for them (the result of going after the singular/doubles);

StrangerCoug (3,1)
The1fifi (3,7)
wolframnhart (3,7)
Devotress (8,3)
Porkens (8,9)
DocPotter (8,10)
Ellibereth (1,2)
Dramonic (1,1)
Hoopla (1,1)
TonyMontana (1,1)
Farside (6,3)
curiouskarmadog (6,12)
Pomegranate (6,4)

Town could easily eliminate A LOT of possible scumteams if there are fewer brackets of numbers. I repeat, the scum WON'T be in the same 2-3 numbers.

[Ellibereth]

I don't get how the whole number thing applies

now

. Can someone explain it to me like I'm an idiot?

[Hoopla]

I don't get how the whole number thing applies

now

. Can someone explain it to me like I'm an idiot?

It applies now because we don't have any other information to work with. We don't have wagons/votes to analyse yet or any confirmed alignments. Number analysis eclipses an unnecessary RVS.

The facts are, singulars/doubles have the highest chance of being scum due to scum

probably

spreading their choices over 4+ different X numbers. The only way this point can be disputed is if you think it's likelier scum would have bid the same 2-3 X numbers. And if so, I'd like to hear your logic behind that.

Do you have any thoughts on the number issue?

[StrangerCoug]

Unvote: Socrates
Vote: Jack

for dodging questions.

StrangerCoug, you should know better...

My opinion on the numbers debate: There is nothing to be gained in terms of scum hunting from the draft order, even if the scum had been able to talk before submiting numbers (which it doesn't sound like they were able to,to me) it's just a huge wifom trap.

Yes, this is somewhat my position. It could possibly be useful at some point, but it's a terrible starting place.

I also disagree that the numbers are of use in determining alignment in the long run.

Also, I predict another mountain climb. Damn large games that I can't seem to get my head into anymore...

[Ellibereth]

We have a wagon on Fate.
I get that it's most likely that scum are on the single numbers, but that doesn't reduce the list by that much anyway.
I'm curious why you lied about your picks in the signup thread.

[Hoopla]

We have a wagon on Fate.
I get that it's most likely that scum are on the single numbers, but that doesn't reduce the list by that much anyway.
I'm curious why you lied about your picks in the signup thread.

Only about the Y number which doesn't count for very much of your chances of a high pick. My tactic was to come in and claim '1' early to scare everyone off it (an assumption based on nobody wanting to sacrifice their own draft position). However, most people didn't understand the system or probably submitted their numbers before reading my post.

[Jack]

It applies now because we don't have any other information to work with. We don't have wagons/votes to analyse yet. Number analysis eclipses an unnecessary RVS.

We have Fate at L-3, which is a wagon you had a big part of. You thought he was suspicious for reasons not regarding number analysis.

In contrast to dramonic's (seemingly genuine) clueless response about the drafting system, this seems like Fate is piggybacking on this mindset to look town. The lame, forced question at the end quantifies this, and just looks like unnecessary words to fill a post that might otherwise had stood out.

Saying we don't have any information to work on contradicts your accusation of him, so it sounds like your accusation wasn't genuine.

unvote:FeFi, vote:Hoopla

[Hoopla]

Jack, I think you're taking my words too literally. There are never times when you have 'no' information. You always start a game with knowledge of a player, your role and the previous posts. I'm stating that numbers are a primary source of information - they should hold more importance than whatever scumtell you can generate from a few pages of voting.

Thank you for conveniently cutting out the bit about numbers from that quote you posted of mine, to make it look like

that

was my sole reasoning for my vote.

[Fate]

But I want to ask what you think. As scum, would you deliberately bid the same number as a teammate? How would you organise your team's number choices? Because you know if you picked the same numbers, it's automatically going to ruin your chances of good roles. Do you think it's likely scum doubled somewhere? Or they are spread across 5 different numbers?

2) If they were smart, yes. This would be a pretty bad situation to be stuck in for them (the result of going after the singular/doubles);
StrangerCoug (3,1)
The1fifi (3,7)
wolframnhart (3,7)
Devotress (8,3)
Porkens (8,9)
DocPotter (8,10)
Ellibereth (1,2)
Dramonic (1,1)
Hoopla (1,1)
TonyMontana (1,1)
Farside (6,3)
curiouskarmadog (6,12)
Pomegranate (6,4)

Town could easily eliminate A LOT of possible scumteams if there are fewer brackets of numbers. I repeat, the scum WON'T be in the same 2-3 numbers.

I would definitely not pick the same number as my teammates. That is what I would do, but I don't know what scum in

this

game has done. Maybe they did spread their choices out, maybe they did double up. But people are selfish, who is going to agree "sure I'll double up and likely not get a role." Also the fact that they only had so much time to choose their numbers, I don't know if they debated the issue enough.

Call me "dumb" and "uncreative" all you want. I don't want to get to lylo, and see the town vote someone based off numbers, and then lose the game. It is comparable to outguessing the setup, in my mind. I also said there was "some merit" to your case, but not for use now.

So you do think scum will go after the less prob town roles with their kills, all right. Now I was reading the other game, and assume we have a vig. Who do you think a pro-town vig would aim for? Singulars? People doubled up? Why?

@Ellie: What do you think of the wagon on me? You're on that wagon, are you going to share your reasons? I know you're whole meta is "never post anything than two sentences, that way if I'm scum I can hide behind it." I also remember the game where you came out as a cop D2, saying "bah I hate being cop. Here's my investigation, see ya I'm dead tonight."

Great addition to town we have here -_-

[Fate]

Thank you for conveniently cutting out the bit about numbers from that quote you posted of mine, to make it look like

that

was my sole reasoning for my vote.

Simulpost. So you admit you really did vote me for being a singular number? I was hoping that was a last bit "RVS' joke...

[Ellibereth]

I love the wagon on you. Fara put why best:

First 2 paragraphs are just there and to me look like an attempt to look town. I'm having a hard time explaining why but it just feels off. Stuff like 'Any scum want to claim and tell us' is something I think scum are more likely to say.

The thing with Socrates is just horrible. Trying to cast doubt on the higher draft picks for no reason is stupid this early. And it's funny considering he's next. So I guess if you don't die soon Fate we should lynch you too huh?

I also remember the game where you came out as a cop D2, saying "bah I hate being cop. Here's my investigation, see ya I'm dead tonight."

Wtf are you talking about. Either my memory is a fail or you're metaing is a fail.

[Hoopla]

Thank you for conveniently cutting out the bit about numbers from that quote you posted of mine, to make it look like

that

was my sole reasoning for my vote.

Simulpost. So you admit you really did vote me for being a singular number? I was hoping that was a last bit "RVS' joke...

It was a combination of reasons. I will likely want to lynch you or Socrates or a double today, and will probably pick the scummiest one of that set of players (barring significant slips from low draft picks). You are currently the scummiest of that set, for reasons outside number analysis.

[Cobalt]

It was a combination of reasons. I will likely want to lynch you or Socrates or a double today, and will probably pick the scummiest one of that set of players (barring significant slips from low draft picks).

You are currently the scummiest of that set, for reasons outside number analysis.

Trust me, number analysis will win this game for us.