Newbie 955 - Game over

[Exemption]

Equinox (1) RayFrost
Exemption (3) Adaham, LobsterCatapult, Hoopla
kingcod (3) redtail896, Me=Weird, Equinox
Hoopla (1) kingcod
(No vote) Exemption
9 alive; 5 votes lynch.

dam sorry I worked it out wrong (did 4 days from Thursday but included Thursday)

unvote

just for now.

[Equinox]

Hi Equi, it's us three again! You, Me, and Ray.

\o/

How 'bout some epic 3-way finger pointing? [/kidding]

the appeal to emotion of a lynch for a lynch's sake doesn't sit well.

Hoopla is correct. We need to lynch to improve town's chances of victory. The only scenario where it's okay to No Lynch would be when we're in a mislynch-and-lose (MyLo) situation.

I backed off a popular wagon because I wasn't convinced (Sandman), I've lead a vote on Hoopla, and I have been extremely careful where I point my accusations. Bad call.

1. Proving that you backed off the MrSandman wagon independent of any other people's analyses would be very difficult, considering that redtail896 declared MrSandman as "leaning" town between your suspicion of MrSandman and your unvote.

2. Your case on Hoopla is not very well founded. Much of it is due to difference of opinion, which is not a scum tell.

3. I've addressed this previously, but I do have something to say about this point.

I must say being responsive to the developments in this game seems to be taken as a sign of weakness by a few of us. I've been trying damned hard to take account of the views of the rest of town, noting where I agree and where I disagree- but not using it as some kind of bandwagon opportunity. I give a reason for each and every one of my votes, but unlike some have the good grace to identify if and when I have been mistaken.

It is good to keep updated on where the game flows, but I don't think scum hunting should be dependent on this. Town need not keep detailed tabs of where the rest of the town sit; they only need to watch for individuals whose eyes shift a bit too much.

What I'm getting from reading your posts in isolation is that you're being too careful. Scum need to be careful when they're hopping on wagons, so they'll be reading this thread more thoroughly than town would, and they would take more care with their cases than town would.

On the other hand, my gut says you're town. ._.

[kingcod]

OK I can see why Exemption has voted for me - I'm a wagon, and he stated he would do this if no one else joined the Hoopla vote. No one has, but then we have AWOL players. Thats a shame.

I'm going to role-claim as this is pretty much my last chance before the first town lynch of the game.

I'm vanilla town.

(and an obvious point -

no one else roleclaim

)

What puzzles me is why getting a lynch day one is so much of an absolute necessity to some people. A number of people have voiced their doubts but are still voting me because of this fear of a no lynch.

Lynching me will likely reduce town by two players tonight since mafia will find another victim alongside me. No lynch will only give scum one victim and will give town time to start to piece together what scum are doing.

There has been some interpretation about whether I go with the flow or go my own way - and you know what? neither is really a scum tell. I really fail to see how I have ended at L-1 because of this.

One last observation - the frustratingly high drop out rate from this game is not leading towards sound decisions. I have no doubt that the new players are contributing as best they can, but if they were scum it is now doubly hard to assess them. Which leaves the old guard who have been in since day one:
Adaham , LobsterCatapult, kingcod , RayFrost , Hoopla

Who of these has been most active recently and who has ended up being L1? That woud be me. I think I had better just shut up as its just leading to a bad day one lynch.

[Equinox]

We're in a war for information. The mafia have started out with the requisite knowledge. The only way we can fish them out aside from endless posting and PR abuse is to lynch people. Lynches give us confirmed information we can work with.

For every dead townie, we know more about how people interacted in the game and what sorts of accusations were made. This sort of thing keeps the game going, and scum have a harder time hiding the more the player list is narrowed down.

Further, the necessity of a Day 1 lynch is backed by empirical data. Town's chances of victory are abysmal when they do a Day 1 No Lynch, across all setups and in general.

Regarding the replacements, I would argue that it's not doubly harder to assess them; rather, it's easier. You're getting two different perspectives and play styles from the same role. You can still look at motivations, content, accusations, and semantics as usual.

I would much rather have a player list that is filled with active replacements than one filled with very quiet originals.

Okay, I'm done with the theory.

My gut is leaning more and more toward kingcod being town, despite his play. It's something about how he's reacting.

Unvote, Vote: Exemption

L-2

I think I had better just shut up as its just leading to a bad day one lynch.

Never

give up. Even if you're absolutely positive you are going to be the lynch of the day, even if you have no doubts that we are making a bad decision, even if someone just laid the hammer on you, do not give up.

Death is not the end. If you flip town, we use what you've left behind in your posts and others' interactions with you. If you give up, you deny us this information and thus hurt town's chances of victory. Don't stop hunting and accusing until the moderator takes your last breath from you.

[LobsterCatapult]

hey sorry, im here. ive been out of town and now reading up and i still like my vote where it is. im glad sandman was replaced by someone who is a bit more active thanks equinox! haha i barely recognize this game anymore from the players that it originally comprised.

anyway, ive read up and i have to say that im kinda leaning towards kingcods claim being legitimate. however, town vanilla is what mafia would fake claim. i agree with equinox's opinions on the game, i don't really like how kingcod isn't willing to go all out for the lynch, after all this time spent this day one, i would like to get a lynch going, even if we town make a mistake, like equinox said, we can use the info to perhaps avoid a similar mistake d2 or later days.

@equinox, is your vote on exemption based on making him L-2, or do you find him scummy as well? sorry if i missed a post saying that you thought he was, im going to reread the last page.

[redtail896]

Hm...

So, I'm sitting here deciding where my vote should rest. Kingcod: I've admittedly been very against you for almost the entire time I've been in the game. You seem to be panicking a bit in this most recent post. Trying to argue for a no lynch seems like a last, desperate stand, and I agree with Equinox's comments on replacements (of course, being a replacement might influence my thinking in that vein somewhat). And honestly, I'm not sure that you've addressed the points thrown at you particularly well.

However, perhaps that's my fault. Perhaps I've been unfair to you. I want opinions on this: have I been unfairly attacking kingcod? Are my attacks even answerable? Am I unpleasable?

Honestly, I'm still happy with the kingcod lynch. I don't have Equinox's gut town read; at best kingcod is a null to me. And I would be happy to lynch kingcod for what I believe is scummy behavior... and then this Exemption wagon started. And to be honest, it's looking mighty fine to me.

Let's start with AdumbroDeus. This is what I wrote about him in my first post:

AdumbroDeus

: Moderately suspicious in my mind. His early posts didn't have a whole lot of content, and then there was that whole "kill weak players" thing. I'm suspicious of that viewpoint from the getgo; if I'm voting for somebody, it's because I think they're mafia. Besides, we have enough running around now that we should be able to make some educated guesses. And on top of that, he jumped on the sailorpallas bandwagon (that wagon rubs me the wrong way). Verdict: Leaning Mafia

And you know what? I stand by that and more. Reading back, not only do his early posts not have a whole lot of content, but neither do his later posts. His most serious vote was actually for kingcod, but for that bizarre buddying up argument that I don't think anybody understood. Most of his posts consisted of defending his ideas and methodology, not scumhunting. And in some weird way, I think that this actually made me

less

suspicious of him; I guess I thought that he was doing so little scumhunting that he had to be town (no mafia would be

that

roundabout, right?).

And then Exemption replaced it. These are the major bullet points that I get from him: voting Hoopla despite having a null read on her, voting kingcod despite having a town read on on him/her, and unvoting earlier today for no apparent reason. And again, I'm struck by almost thinking that he must be town, because these actions are almost

too

scummy.

Maybe I'm just ranting to myself now, and I'm sure you all want me to get to the point. I stick with kingcod for now, but Exemption is directly in my line of sight.

One last think. Equinox, what happened in the space of 24 hours to make you go from this:

kingcod, that was the impression I got while going through the thread. Since I read this game in one go, I'm more likely to consider the whole than weigh recent events more than others. I can't say I'm impressed with your reaction just now (sounded kind of like how politicians present themselves in voting season... not comfortable), but I'll take a closer look at what you've been doing more recently.

To this?

My gut is leaning more and more toward kingcod being town, despite his play. It's something about how he's reacting.

Specifically, I'm wondering what in his play is giving you this read.

[Equinox]

@equinox, is your vote on exemption based on making him L-2, or do you find him scummy as well? sorry if i missed a post saying that you thought he was, im going to reread the last page.

Exemption was on my top 3. Since kingcod is no longer in the running, he's next for the noose.

i don't really like how kingcod isn't willing to go all out for the lynch, after all this time spent this day one

Equinox, what happened in the space of 24 hours to make you go from this:

kingcod, that was the impression I got while going through the thread. Since I read this game in one go, I'm more likely to consider the whole than weigh recent events more than others. I can't say I'm impressed with your reaction just now (sounded kind of like how politicians present themselves in voting season... not comfortable), but I'll take a closer look at what you've been doing more recently.

To this?

My gut is leaning more and more toward kingcod being town, despite his play. It's something about how he's reacting.

Specifically, I'm wondering what in his play is giving you this read.

I think it has something to do with how I usually react when I know I'm town but can't convince anyone otherwise... He's acting quite similar to that. I don't think scum is going to give up so easily on Day 1, considering that they'll be pretty much screwed all game if they die that early. kingcod's frustration sounds genuine.

[Adaham]

Became later then I hoped, so I´m going to be short, unfortunately. Life´s a bit too busy to concentrate on this, but I´ll keep going. Hopefully the next day I´ll have a higher availability.

I like the way Equinox worded her opinion on kingcod, and I have similar feelings that make me doubt whether he´s the best lynch right now. Hoopla has done her share to be mentioned among the possible lynches, but most strikingly Exemption has taken over AD´s legacy with a strange air of wishy-washyness. Almost each of his statements is being negated in the same sentence and he´s very busy distancing himself from his previous incarnator. This means he at least hasn´t given me any reason to think of him more innocent than I thought of his predecessors guilt. While with Hoopla and kingcod I have considerable doubts about their guilt keeping me from commiting myself to a vote on them, Exemption/AD is as safe a bet as it gets on day 1 (at least in my view). Therefore stick with my vote (I never voted AdumbroDeus, I guess my vote was transferred to Exemption?).

Of the people playing I´m inclined to trust redtail, lobster, equinox. To finally answer redtails question, it is obviously very unrealistic to only expect well founded accusations on day 1, but while some WIFOM is necessary to make a case on somebody, the way it´s used and the alleged purpose behind it is what can make my scumdar go off. There´s a difference between "it´s day 1, we haven´t got much to go on, but from what I´ve seen I think X is suspicious because of Y" and "It´s day 1, we haven´t got much to go on, so let´s vote randomly instead of trying to dig deeper". Granted, this is never that outspoken, but some peoples attacks exert more of a feeling that they are not conceived honestly.

[Adaham]

rename vote: Exemption

Just so the mod can see.

[Me=Weird]

If exemption's still at L-1 tomorrow near deadline, I'll vote, but he's not my preferred lynch.

[LobsterCatapult]

@equinox, is your vote on exemption based on making him L-2, or do you find him scummy as well? sorry if i missed a post saying that you thought he was, im going to reread the last page.

Exemption was on my top 3. Since kingcod is no longer in the running, he's next for the noose.

I think it has something to do with how I usually react when I know I'm town but can't convince anyone otherwise... He's acting quite similar to that. I don't think scum is going to give up so easily on Day 1, considering that they'll be pretty much screwed all game if they die that early. kingcod's frustration sounds genuine.

so, kingcod is "out of the running" in your opinion because of his claim, and his attempt to shake people off him when he cant think of any other viable options? im not writing off kingcod as "out of the running" so easily. i dont think anyone should.

yeah. he could be just reflecting a newb townie trying to get people off his ass by waiving a "im just a nilla! y the lynch?", but i dont really see it that way. i see it as..."if i claim, at least some of them will be my ass and maybe i can sit back on this. "

i mean, since the roles are clearly laid out in this game with 4 scenarios, claiming vanilla is easy and predictable. i feel a bit the same, though in reverse, as redtail, where i dont like kingcod, but i dont like exemption more. i wouldnt mind a kingcod lynch, but exemption is my perferred lynch.

and...c'mon ray. where you at?! i feel like we are letting ray coast by under the radar a bit....

im kinda frustrated like hoopla is, yeah i havent been around the past few days, but this inactivity and all the need for replacements is disheartening, i just hope it's better d2 :/

[Exemption]

I agree with Equinox I'm getting the feeling that Kingcod is town.
I think other people are feeling the same as well, so I think it's time I role claimed.
I'm a cop

Anyway I love the way redtail completely ignored what I said. Yes I did vote for someone I thought was town. We NEED a lynch. As explained I thought it was the last day and so placed my vote on the biggest bandwagon so that I could make it happen. However when I was corrected that it wasn't the last day I removed my vote. This was because I didn't want to lynch kingcod unless I had to.

The more I look through the more I'm leaning towards hoopla being scum. Mainly for the way she seems to be waiting for a lynch to happen without posting much content at all. I understand she just wants the day over. So do I but I think posting stuff should still be a top priority.

vote hoopla

I think it is time to put my vote back where it was. Yes this does look like vote flipping, but please understand it would be here if it wasn't for the necessity of a lynch. Still I hope I survive, probably won't though as ether I'll be lynched or die in the night. Please don't lynch me, but I'm pretty certain I will die in the night, so i would suggest I am a better lynch than kingcod. As I really believe him town.

[Adaham]

Spicy shit, what do you guys think of all this role-claiming? I mean, kingcod´s "I´m a vanilla townie" didn´t really add anything new to the standard "trust me I´m innocent", but Exemptions claim is rather bold and I´m as of yet undecided whether to trust it or not.

I´m mostly interested in what Lobster, Redtails and Equinox have to say on this. Should we go for Hoopla instead? Right up until the cop-claim I had doubts going for Hoopla and kingcod, but not for Exemption.

BTW, if he really turns out Cop, that was a very bad play for a special on day 1, from both incarnations.

[redtail896]

Anyway I love the way redtail completely ignored what I said. Yes I did vote for someone I thought was town. We NEED a lynch. As explained I thought it was the last day and so placed my vote on the biggest bandwagon so that I could make it happen. However when I was corrected that it wasn't the last day I removed my vote. This was because I didn't want to lynch kingcod unless I had to.

Okay, I admit that I kind of misunderstood the unvote then. I didn't fully understand the reasoning behind it. But I still think that you could have argued for Hoopla. Saying that you think kingcod is town but voting for him anyway looks bad. My apologies though for misrepresenting you. I'm sorry.

The cop claim is interesting. On the one hand, if he's the cop and we lynch him, we're in bad shape. On the other hand, if he's a mafia member at L-1, claiming a cop is a nice last ditch effort. Remember, there's only a 50% chance that there's a cop in the game. Plus with so many people checking in relatively rarely, and being right up against the deadline, he could be hoping to get by. This could be a scum calculated risk.

As for the Hoopla vote, I can't argue with it too much; Exemption says most of the stuff I would have said (add in all my suspicions from previously).

[Equinox]

Oh, hell no.

/me headdesks

Unvote

I'm going to go gather my thoughts and then come back to this mess.

[Hoopla]

This is really bad - two roleclaims is very bad for town on Day 1. It has outed a powerrole (if it's true). Without a counterclaim, it is probable, for now. I think kingcod is town too, due to his claim. Which leaves us in an awkward scenario, where we're lynching another person, so we need ANOTHER roleclaim.

Unvote, vote: Equinox

[Equinox]

That sounds awfully fishy, Hoopla. Do you really think more claims are going to help?

[Hoopla]

You're in favour of lynching one of our claimed players then?

[Equinox]

Where did I say that, Hoopla? I was just accusing you of fishing.

[redtail896]

You're in favour of lynching one of our claimed players then?

Yes. Yes, I am. Kingcod claimed vanilla town, and I haven't moved my vote. That's because (in my humble opinion) a claim of vanilla town is a complete null tell. If he's scum, it's simply the easiest thing to claim. If he's town, it's statistically the most likely. Kingcod's claim of vanilla town has had 0 impact on my opinion of him. Has it changed yours?

[Equinox]

Okay, so I finally got around to reading the posts following the role claim.

im not writing off kingcod as "out of the running" so easily. i dont think anyone should.

kingcod is out of the running for a Day 1 lynch. It's not so much the role claim or the shaking as the way he did them.

---

Whether or not Exemption's claim is believable is irrelevant. What we really need to decide is whether or not to lynch Exemption.

If Exemption's claim is true, he's pretty much screwed. The scum know what kind of setup this is now; if they have a roleblocker, Exemption will be just another vanilla, and if they are two goons, Exemption is dead.

redtail896 also has a point when he says it could be a last ditch scum move. If this is the case, Exemption needs to die.

Vote: Exemption

L-1

(I know I said L-2 last time. I miscounted. It was actually L-1.)

For the record, I do believe Exemption is cop.

[Hoopla]

Where did I say that, Hoopla? I was just accusing you of fishing.

What is the point of fishing, when there is a real chance there are no more other power roles in the game? It's possible our cop is lying, but I'd rather use him at NK-bait on the probability he is truthful.

It isn't rolefishing - if we lynch outside of kingcod and exemption, they will HAVE to claim. That is what we need to weigh up.

[Me=Weird]

Soooo... You think Exemption is the cop(assuming there is one), Equi, but you're voting him anyway? Where does logic fit into this?

[Equinox]

What is the point of fishing, when there is a real chance there are no more other power roles in the game?

Scum would know if there are power roles remaining.

It's possible our cop is lying, but I'd rather use him at NK-bait on the probability he is truthful.

On the other hand, Exemption might not get NKed at all, and scum would then have a much narrower field of potential PRs to work with. Exemption is, at best, useless.

if we lynch outside of kingcod and exemption, they will HAVE to claim. That is what we need to weigh up.

Not necessarily. Townies don't need to claim. Either they wiggle themselves out of L-1 or they die. Claiming and staying alive just makes it easier for scum to kill PRs. You might not be directly fishing, but you're helping scum fish.

[Me=Weird]

You're ignoring my post?