No deadline. Now we have to be careful not to drag this game into apathy mode. By the time we've hit the mod's baseline minimum in activity, it likely will have been too late to generate active scumhunting material with the way we drag on. Doesn't have to be a 3 page lynch, but if you feel yourself hitting a wall and we're talking in circles, please by all means shout and say "get on with it". Of course, make sure you're happy enough that your vote is on your top suspect at that point.
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Shall we begin? I'd like to see if shotty's crapshoot picks finally come around and work for him. It's a 1/15 chance he's nailed it from his perspective and mine, but surely he's played 15 games by this point, so I'm banking on statistical inevitability.
Now there's one complication to this issue, if shotty's drawn a scum role, he's wrong himself. So 2/6 of the time, I can conclusively call the statement false. That therefore means that 4/6 of the time, he's got said 1/15 chance of calling it correctly. That therefore means I have to multiply 4/6 by 1/15. That gives me a 4/90 = 2/45 chance that shotty's prediction is correct. Statistically in the long run, he should have it right in a 7P setup every 1 in about 23 games.
Then I need to realize that I'm being an idiot here. The chances of him getting it right each time are independent. I therefore have to base it off the fact that he's had a 0% success rate in all likelihood making these picks, given his complete idiocy and ineptitude at finding scum. Now I have to reverse this probability chain and figure out the probability that, given that he's wrong, what the probability is that he's scum. I come to the conclusion, based on all this, that the probability is slightly greater than 1/3, about .34. That's marginally better than my 1/3 chance.
But wait, something's up here. What if this one time, shotty actually does have it right? If shotty's called the scumpair, that obviously means he's got it right. But that's a 1/15 chance. If that's the case, this entire model crumbles.
As you can see, statistics make absolutely no sense in a game where nothing has been introduced yet. But because it's fun, and because I think shotty makes a good lynch in any game regardless of alignment, I'd like to start off with him.
Vote: drmyshottyizsik
Random vote.
