New York 138: OxyMoron Mafia :: Game Over!

[Empking]

Pretty sure that's game.

Empking's acting like caught-scum.

Paraphrased, it's like he's literally saying, "Dang. I thought I had a chance. So, what was it that gave me away? *after reasons are given* I can't believe I was hammered over such poor reasoning!"

You realize that if I was scum I'd've claimed it rather than trying to hide it after I was hammered. I'm town with no real clue who the last scum is.

[mastin2]

Alright. I'll humor you and for a moment, assume that you're not the SK.

That we are going into night.

And you-know-who dies tonight.


In 4P mylo, I'd advise against the usual auto-hammer-no-lynch. I'll explain if we get there. (And that's a huge "if".)

[ObliviousDruidMuncher]

Empking, a

Vanilla Townie

, has been lynched by the town. It is now Night 8. The deadline for Night 8 is November 18, 2011 at 8 PM ET.

[ObliviousDruidMuncher]

I'm going to be gone until the 20th. Take the extra time to reread the game and go into Day 9 fully prepared.

[ObliviousDruidMuncher]

Thor665, a

Voyeur

, was chiasmused to death Night 8. It is now Day 9. The deadline for Day 9 is December 4, 2011 at 8 PM ET.

[redFF]

Alright. I'll humor you and for a moment, assume that you're not the SK.

That we are going into night.

And you-know-who dies tonight.


In 4P mylo, I'd advise against the usual auto-hammer-no-lynch. I'll explain if we get there. (And that's a huge "if".)

ok

[Oversoul]

...

fuck this game.

[Nobody Special]

Alright. I'll humor you and for a moment, assume that you're not the SK.

That we are going into night.

And you-know-who dies tonight.


In 4P mylo, I'd advise against the usual auto-hammer-no-lynch. I'll explain if we get there. (And that's a huge "if".)

Were you correct in your NK speculation?

And, since we're here (and I'm with Oversoul: FTG), now what?

[mastin2]

If you were expecting some master plan from me, I'm afraid you were sadly mistaken.
I suppose it's a postin' time.


Right. So at the end of yesterday, I said we shouldn't (immediately) No Lynch. This probably surprised people, especially when they know I have reasons to strongly suggest it's a good idea. (Neruzian.)

"Everyone could die, right?"

Theoretically, yes.

That, itself, is a change from my previous stance that "everyone except for mastin could die, since mastin has a free pass to lylo as our primary suspect."

Then I realized...I really don't. I honestly, truly...could die.

That itself wasn't enough, though.

What tipped me over the edge?

Realizing that it WASN'T anyone who would die. That the SMARTEST Serial Killer kill would actually be me.

"...what."

Yeah, well, think ahead to lylo.

There are three scenarios.
1: The Serial Killer 1V1s me. This is a fight they very well may lose. Sure, it's possible to enter this scenario and win (after all, before my current meta of getting NK'd every single game, I had the opposite type of meta ), but it's a huge risk.
2: The VT votes me, SK hammers. This situation would be ideal, but also incredibly unlikely. No player here would be that trigger-happy to attack me.

Or

3: Either the SK crossvotes with the VT, or nobody votes 'til a couple days before deadline. Either way, it's a Sexy Sedilla Situation.

Nothing wrong with that for a SK, right? I mean, I had to use every single last minute of my time in Sexy Sedilla before casting the hammer vote. No problem, right?

Wrong. 'Cause guess what: I eventually

won

Sexy Sedilla, even if it took me forever. Any SK familiar with that situation would realize that bringing me to lylo when I'm willing to pull multiple all-nighters to find the scum is quite frankly foolish. That's not all.


Because there's another reason beyond being nearly impossible to lynch which makes me a very bad choice for lylo: the exact same thing which is the main reason people think I'm the SK--forethought. I have the ability to see into the future and predict things.

...Including, say, who the SK would be if *player1* died. And how that is different from who the SK would be if *player2* died. Because I'm capable of doing good nightkill analysis, well, it is a slight double-sword, in that it proves that I could be the SK setting up the situations I describe...

...But it ALSO means I'm an incredible THREAT to the Serial Killer, since getting inside of scum's heads is something of a specialty of mine. And because I'm good at it, that makes me incredibly dangerous to the SK.

Sure, I *could* be wrong about my NK analysis (I did it on Day Eight), but the Serial Killer is taking a HUGE risk with this. They don't know if I'm right or wrong. (And I quite frankly don't intend to tell them, for obvious reasons.) If I'm right, then I basically have them nailed, and they're screwed.



So, both because I'm incredibly hard to lynch, and incredibly likely to nail the scum, I'm basically the person the SK LEAST wants in Lylo.


Does that mean we'll be lynching today?





Oh, heck no. I fully support a No Lynch.

Just not immediately.

What *I* want, is to *USE* today. Use every single minute of Day Nine to analyze, interrogate, etc. Try to figure out who the SK is today. Get all the work done now, rather than later or never. And after all of that, then the day can end. (Basically, we don't end the day before we're ready. And if we're not ready before deadline, well, then we'll have used the whole time since at deadline the default is a no-lynch.)


That way, I can die having scumhunted, instead of having died giving the town nothing to work with.


So, uh, yeah. Not some master strategy, a grand master plan to win the game.

Me wanting to die scumhunting.

[mastin2]

Now with that in mind, I created questions for you to answer overnight.

OVERSOUL: Right now, who is your top townread?
Top SK-read?

NOBODY SPECIAL: How much time have you put into this game?
How much of it have you read?
You've stated previously that you trust neither Oversoul nor myself. Has that changed?
If so, to what?
If not, then who between us do you think is more likely to be scum?
What's your read on redFF?

REDFF: Are you still suspicious of Oversoul being the SK?
If not, who is your new top suspect?



Yeah, yeah, I know. Not the best questions in the world. Basically, they're filler while I undertake my work.

[redFF]

im honestly a little lost. im busy atm but im going to reread sometime this week as im pretty much free all week starting tomorrow.

[redFF]

to answer your question mastin, im suspicious of everyone and i have no idea who the sk is, hence the reread.

[mastin2]

Oh, and a small warning.
Bad weather coming to my area--possible power outage in the next couple of days (during which I have no internet) and then there's Thanksgiving after that, so I'm *potentially* V/LA for roughly a week, though I don't think I will be.

to answer your question mastin, im suspicious of everyone and i have no idea who the sk is, hence the reread.

Alright. Let's try some different questions, then.

How did it feel to no longer become undefeated, red?
If we had won Underground and you were still undefeated, do you think you would be playing this game any differently?

What changed your view here that one of {Me, Empking} was scum?
Do you remember your thoughts here?
You mention Oversoul suspicion, and you've shown mastin suspicion.
But no NS suspicion, yet you claim to be suspicious of everyone.

What happened to NS?


(Dang it. I really suck at these.)

[Nobody Special]

NOBODY SPECIAL: How much time have you put into this game?
How much of it have you read?
You've stated previously that you trust neither Oversoul nor myself. Has that changed?
If so, to what?
If not, then who between us do you think is more likely to be scum?
What's your read on redFF?

I'll be honest: I've put more time into this game than I thought I would have to (I seem to usually get NKed pretty quickly when I replace in, for some reason). And the fact that I'm still alive, which truthfully surprises me, means I'm going to have to put even more time into it.

When I initially replaced in, I started reading from the beginning. That didn't last. I got probably 40 pages in and just ...stopped. I have gone back and read certain isos, though, since.

I still don't trust either you or Oversoul. My most-town read right now is redFF. I'm especially more distrustful of you, now, precisely because you ARE still alive. I share your reasoning that any rational SK would've killed you. I mean, I don't have a lot of history with you, and if I were SK, I'd have killed you. You're fearsome, and I'd really hate to be in lylo with you as an adversary. That said, I do need to see about history with Oversoul/redFF and you; perhaps they don't know how good you really are (although your performance in this very game should be a freaking

clue).

Right now, my gut tells me to look toward you (mastin), both for the aforementioned reasoning as well as some back-of-my-mind suspicions I've had, off and on, for a short while.

My current read on redFF remains essentially what it was when we almost-lynched him: Oversoul is apparently conftown (although I

still

don't understand why; I really have to go back and re-read that Day); mastin is pretty much town (except for the whole STILL BEING ALIVE THING); and I'm town, so by PoE, redFF is the SK. EXCEPT THAT DOESN'T WORK ANYMORE AND THE WHOLE THING HAS COLLAPSED IN A BIG HUGE PILE OF FNARGLE.

Wifom. WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM.

My head hurts so bad. I cannot even fathom the permutations of interactions I'm gonna have to read to even have the right questions to ask.

I agree we should use the next two weeks to do scumhunting. It's probably gonna take that long, truthfully.

[redFF]

oversoul isn't confirmed town.

[mastin2]

I just realized that I didn't ask any questions for myself.

I'll leave any others you want to you, but I should give you this much:

As of right now, most likely to least likely is roughly Oversoul-redFF-Nobody Special. It's mostly based off of gut. NS has a lot pointing to him being town, from a lot of his overall play, to his townslip, and then to his post above. (Though admittedly, that might just be due to how much he is reminding me of...well, me. ) There *are* a few things *against* him, but they are few and far between, requiring a stretch of logic.

It's pretty similar for redFF, though it's more even. A lot says he could be the SK, but there's at least an equal amount saying he isn't, and my gut wants to say he isn't.

...Which by process of elimination has Oversoul at the top again, much to my horror. My gut? Dead silence from it. It refuses to speak on the matter of Oversoul right now. "I don't want to talk about it." My head's going through a similar pattern. "NO! Not him!"






So, my solution:

I'm going to try and forget everything here. I'll try to review the facts.
Review my info.
Review it all.

Read all 85 pages.

Look for the clues.

See if I can find

anything

, but do it from a clear mind.
Keep track of votes if I can.

Whatever is necessary. But I need to enter it with a clear mind. I can't go in with the above biases, or the above biases are what I will finish with.

Honestly, this is incredibly hard. Oversoul's more or less right about how things have played out: all the extremely pro-town players are dead. All the extremely anti-town players were lynched. Now, we're left with four people, who all have things pointing to them being town, who in any other circumstance would probably be taken for granted as being town...

...Yet we know for a fact that one ISN'T, and looking at everyone without taking for granted they're town, there's a lot of evidence suggesting they COULD be scum.

The middle of the road, so to speak. Grah.

[mastin2]

I do need to see about history with Oversoul/redFF and you; perhaps they don't know how good you really are (although your performance in this very game should be a freaking clue).

At the start of this game, this was apparently one of redFF's first games with me. I can't seem to recall his presence in any game other than Underground Mafia, where I pretty much nailed all four scum upon replacing in and put into a motion a plan which ended up lynching 3/4 of them, despite being NK'd the moment I replaced in. (Not due to my reads, as awesome as that'd be, but because I was triple-confirmed-town, via gunsmith, masonry, and rolecop.)

Oversoul, I've had more experience with. There was Brightest Day, where I accidentally 'crumbed too hard (I didn't know how obvious it was! >_<) an anti-cult role...when Oversoul was in the cult. Whoops, dead

Night One

The Minute Day Two Dawned. (Immediate dayvig day two.) Posthumously, I named 4 scum in a list of 5. One of them (Cult Leader) was cult, the others were mafia. But while alive, my reads were pretty meh, if I remember correctly. Decent, but not great.

There's RPG mafia, where I got...pretty much nothing before being NK'd. (Sensing a disturbing pattern? )

In the dead QT, I didn't figure it out for the longest time, and when I did it was because of some dead giveaway clues in the dead QT, so nothing gained from the thread helped me. (Though I did point out multiple scumslips from Hindu after I knew it was him.) So, uh, not great there, either.

The only other example coming to mind off the top of my head is Sexy Sedilla, and you presumably have figured out how that went. My reads were Meh almost the entire game, with a few highs and a few lows. The ultimate "low" in that game, however, was my Magister Ludi scumread, to the point where I gambited "Lynch him, and if he flips town, lynch me." He flipped town. I caused the treestump to 'stump as well, removing his vote from the game.

And it was lampshaded how if I were scum, I had just basically played a perfect scum game. But, nope, was terrible town. Who somehow was left with the hammer after Oversoul/MrZephr crossvoted. (Why, I still have no clue. I was the main suspect going into lylo, yet I had the hammer.) Working 'til the day of deadline and pulling an all-nighter, I eventually hammered MrZepher, ending the game with a town win, but it was a very,

very

close call. I think the end percentage was something like 53-47.

So, uh, redFF: seen me be awesome.
Oversoul: seen me be better-than-average, but not what I'd call awesome.

Of course, they're free to correct any holes in the above, since I'm basing this entirely off of memory.

[Oversoul]

I killed you in Brightest Day.

Mastin, where did your analysis of the RVS questions go? I remember you promising and promising and promising to do them and then all of the sudden.... you didn't do them despite your constant proddings and pokings to get people to answer them.

Why were Secret and I such obvious scum reads of yours in the beginning of the day and why haven't you fleshed out that idea other than the suspicion you threw on me yesterday despite the situation of this game now?

Your first 50 posts of this game could be classified as IIoA. Do you agree with that sentiment?

@all

What do you think about redFF falling for my trap when I said that the SK was too stupid to shoot Pine and he took offence to it?

I think we are all asking the same question (well maybe except for redFF). Why haven't we died? NS being a townread... really only comes from that one post of his the other day.

[mastin2]

I'll answer in a minute, Oversoul.

But one question to you. Absolutely vital:

How did you know the neighborhood was randomized?
How was the neighborhood randomized? Do you know? Because "Random town plus a maf" and "completely random" are two entirely different things.

Trust me, I just did nearly half an hour's worth of work, so I need an answer.

[Oversoul]

It says in our role PM that the neighborhood was completely random as in random.org. That is why we got two power roles in there.

I took a chance in fakeclaiming gunsmith in the Neighborhood to try and draw the nightkill should any of the active players been mafia. Then when none of us died night 1 I fakeclaimed the guilty to get rid of the only outlier in the group.

[mastin2]

Mastin, where did your analysis of the RVS questions go?

Buried in my QT. It has over a hundred posts in it, more than I've given to any other QT except for multigame hydra QTs. (So, it's the most posts I've ever had in a QT for a single game. ) The first twenty-five or so are where the RQS are. Don't worry, I haven't forgotten about them. They are to play a part in my reviewing. I've got the flip info from almost everyone to help the data, though it's going to take me a long time to compile. And I have a few other things higher on my priority list. But they are there, and they are important still.

Why were Secret and I such obvious scum reads of yours in the beginning of the day and why haven't you fleshed out that idea other than the suspicion you threw on me yesterday despite the situation of this game now?

Neighborhood. When I learned you were a neighborhood, with one scum in it, I instantly clicked to the thought "all others are confirmed town". As anyone else would have. When I learned there was a SK, though, one of my early thoughts was SK-in-neighborhood. I thought you were the gunsmith, so if you recall, I attacked Secret/Evil who I thought was the SK. And when that changed to him being the tracker, and you being the VT, suddenly, your positions were switched in my mind. I don't remember when this was, exactly, nor the details around it, but you should get the idea.

Your first 50 posts of this game could be classified as IIoA. Do you agree with that sentiment?

Yes and no.

Were they all IIoA? No, I did some real scumhunting there, though I'm too lazy to do an ISO right now and point out which were scumhunting and which were IIoA.

Were most of them IIoA?

Heck yes they were. Expecting me to deny it? The simple truth is that's what they were.

I think we are all asking the same question (well maybe except for redFF). Why haven't we died?

The kills for the last two nights have an obvious explanation. Evil/Thor were dead men walking. No SK had a chance if either were brought into lylo, and we all know that.

What's vital is tonight's kill, and the kills BEFORE that.
Why wasn't there an SK kill the first three nights?
Why Pine?
(No question about TOGTFO; that was obvious. But...)
Why XERAS?!?
Why *insert who dies tonight*?

THOSE are the important questions. I can answer the last. I can answer for TOGTFO/Secret/Thor. The others, however, need a little more explaining. I'm going to do another review of what I know of night actions.

[mastin2]

So I'm still on my desktop, meaning no access to my notes, meaning this'll be a little more difficult than normal. But I thought I might as well start with the setup, and the combinations possible. There's pretty much only one variable, here: Oversoul.

If Oversoul is the Serial Killer, the setup looks like this:

Town Even-Night Vigilante
Town Even-Night Commuter
Town Bodyguard
Town JOAT
Town Voyear
Town Jailkeeper-Neighbor
Town Tracker-Neighbor
(7 PRs)
VT x 8

VS

Mafia Goon
Mafia Goon-Neighbor
Mafia Watcher
Mafia Roleblocker

VS

Ninja-Neighbor-SK.

OR

There is a chance of it being

Town Even-Night Vigilante
Town Even-Night Commuter
Town Bodyguard
Town JOAT
Town Voyear
Town Jailkeeper
Town Tracker
VT x 8

with two randomized players chosen. (OR: Two randomized PRs chosen.)

VS

Mafia Goon x 2
Mafia Watcher
Mafia Roleblocker

with one player randomly chosen.

VS

Ninja-Neighbor-SK. (Not random.)


OR



Oversoul was truthful; the neighborhood was entirely random, which creates a setup almost identical to the above, with it actually being:

Town Even-Night Vigilante
Town Even-Night Commuter
Town Bodyguard
Town JOAT
Town Voyear
Town Jailkeeper
Town Tracker
VT x 8

VS

Mafia Goon x 2
Mafia Watcher
Mafia Roleblocker

VS

Ninja-SK.

Four randomly selected players (which just so happened to have a SK and mafia member among them).


So of these.
-Neighborhood Fixed; Oversoul was BS'ing.
-Neighborhood has two random town, one random maf, and the SK; it was semi-random.
-Neighborhood has two random PRs, one random maf, and the SK; it was coordinated randomness (if that makes sense).
-Neighborhood was completely random; Oversoul was not lying.

I doubt the first one. I may be underestimating him, but I doubt Oversoul has the skill to lie *that* convincingly.
-I also somewhat doubt the second one. It seems okay, but it requires incredible amount of chance to land both on PRs.
-The fourth creates an incredible stretch on credibility, so it becomes doubtful itself.
-So if Oversoul is the SK, the Neighborhood was Two Random PRs, SK, and One Random Mafia. (That seems balanced enough.)




Now working from Oversoul-is-town, the setup instead looks like this:

Town Even-Night Vigilante
Town Even-Night Commuter
Town Bodyguard
Town JOAT
Town Voyear
Town Jailkeeper
Town Tracker
VT x 8

VS

Mafia Goon x 2
Mafia Watcher
Mafia Roleblocker

VS

Ninja-SK.

Note the lack of the first scenario, since if Oversoul were town, he would not be lying. But still, just because the neighborhood is random, does not mean it was entirely random.

As I see it:
-Neighborhood had two random PRs, one random VT, and one random mafia.
-Neighborhood had three random town, and one random mafia.
-Neighborhood had completely random selection.

Are the only three possibilities. Honestly, I'm not sure which of these would be the most likely. The fourth is the fairest from a moderator's perspective, but the least likely from a player's. (The neighborhood just so happened to coincidentally end up with two PRs, one VT, and one scum?!? It just doesn't seem likely at all.)

The first seems oddly specific from a moderating point of view, but I can see it happening and it does kinda make sense from a player's perspective. But I'm not sure about it.

The middle seems like a happy medium between the two. It's not very specific as a moderator; you just want one scum in the neighborhood, no more and no less. And it doesn't require as much of a stretch as the third. But it still *is* a stretch, in that it still requires that two of the three town players were coincidentally PRs.

So as I see it, overall:

-If Oversoul were the SK, the Neighborhood was Two Random PRs, SK, and One Random Mafia.
-If Oversoul were town, the Neighborhood was three random town, and one random mafia.



Seems pretty likely.














...This...doesn't seem to match what Oversoul just said, though. :/

[Oversoul]

.This...doesn't seem to match what Oversoul just said, though. :/

What? I just said that everyone was chosen randomly.

[mastin2]

Oversoul: Did the mod say it was completely random?

I understand that you obviously can't get too close to the original wording without getting modkilled,
But the specific wording is VERY important.

I need you to tell me as best as you can his phrasing. It makes a HUGE difference.

[Oversoul]

Neighborhood. When I learned you were a neighborhood, with one scum in it, I instantly clicked to the thought "all others are confirmed town". As anyone else would have. When I learned there was a SK, though, one of my early thoughts was SK-in-neighborhood. I thought you were the gunsmith, so if you recall, I attacked Secret/Evil who I thought was the SK. And when that changed to him being the tracker, and you being the VT, suddenly, your positions were switched in my mind. I don't remember when this was, exactly, nor the details around it, but you should get the idea.

I must not be remembering the same things... I don't think it quite worked out this way...

hold on. let me iso you.

I think you are talking about a completely different situation, Mastin.

I was talking about this vote and the posts naming before that named me and Evil as scum

Oh, forgot to do this.

Vote: Secret Project

.

Should always get a vote out.