NY 150: Mob Money Mafia GAME OVER

[Twistedspoon]

the main things I notice are that

Pine is almost conf. town after BB interactions and everything else
PM death incriminates Knox
BB actually wasn't a traitor =p

@neighbours: what did you discuss in your qt last night?

I'm unsure if it's Knox/spitz or BL.

It is now Day 6, with 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

OP being updated.

hmm

are there not 5 alive?

[T-Bone]

Unless I'm being stupid (which is quite possible)

Alive

2. Twistedspoon
3. Splitfarvle

Knox Pizzadudes7

6. Mastin2
10. Pine
17. Bunnylover

Is the playerlist.

I am being stupid.

5 alive, 3 to lynch

[Pine]

Okay, I just reviewed BB's ISO. He mentions ProjectMatt twice, neither in a negative context. He votes Pizza once with a bad reason, then doesn't mention Knox AT ALL.

I think we should vote Splitfarvle (Knox's replacement) tomorrow.

Your thoughts? We're probably scum's primary targets, so we should be ready to carry on the other's opinions if needed.

This was the only post in the QT last night. BL didn't respond. It's actually rekindling some BL suspicion, as I suspect I may have been the bodyguarded target last night.

[Bunnylover]

Sorry Pine, I haven't checked the QT in forever, assumed nothing would be happening with it.
I'm pretty sure this is how it went down if both bodyguards died using there effects:
Nacho protect Mastin (100% sure). Only problem is Nacho just had as good of chance of been shot as Mastin did.
Matt protect Mastin/Myself (60%/40%). Edit: After reading Mastin ISO, I'm 90% sure Matt protected Mastin due to Mastin last post.
I don't think Matt would have picked anyone else other myself and Mastin, the only other person I would consider would be Pine but looking at his interaction the past two days I doubt Matt would protect you.

Truthfully with 5 alive ruling out Mastin as somewhat obvious town and Pine and I as Neighbors who should be Masons it leaves Twistedspoon and Knox replacement.
Vote will be placed on Knox replacement so far.

[Twistedspoon]

Truthfully with 5 alive ruling out Mastin as somewhat obvious town and Pine and I as Neighbors who should be Masons it leaves Twistedspoon and Knox replacement.

forgive me if I fail to recall this, but why are you masons now?

[Pine]

Because of the Traitor flips. Scum Neighbor in a 2-Neighbor setup is a negative utility to scum, like Miller or similar is for Town. Traitors are also somewhat negative utility. The scum setup is probably 2 Traitor PRs and 2 Goons, so having one of those goons further disadvantaged would be unreasonable for scum.

Ergo, BL and I are pretty close to Masons.

[Twistedspoon]

gotcha

[mastin2]

VOTE: Split. I can run with that.

[splitfarvle]

Looks like I'm at L-1 already? Haven't even finished reading the game yet, so let me get my thoughts out before hammer, okay?

Until then, I'll claim. I'm the tracker.

The results the Mod sent me seem to have a gap, so let me confirm them with him and then I'll reveal my predecessor's results.

As for myself, I tracked Matt because his vote on BB seemed fake and forced. Matt visited no one.

Repeat: Matt the bodyguard visited no one last night, so I assume he chose not to protect anyone.

[Pine]

Such bullshit.

Bodyguard protected no one? I don't think so.

[Pine]

Plus, we already had a full cop flip. Likelihood of a second investigative role is slim.

[mastin2]

Yeeeeeeeeah...a valiant effort, but you lost this game before you even replaced in.

[splitfarvle]

Alright then, let me report Knox's actions and I'll hurry with my final thoughts so you can lynch me.

N1- Andy visited no one.
N2- Twistedspoon visited no one.
N3- No action
N4- No action

[mastin2]

Six nights, and you give results for only five?

You're missing a night.

Yeah......

[mastin2]

Further hole--during N1, knox was Pizza. It wasn't until D2 that knox came in.
He showed no reason at all to track Andy, either.

knox showed no hints at having tracked Andy, and while there are a few things suggesting TS was THEORETICALLY a possible track, it doesn't look probable given knox's posts.

[splitfarvle]

So it seems mastin is might be confirmed town due to Sly's investigation. I would say that his playing seems off sometimes, with flipflopping on some players without providing reasoning. Generally pro-town though.

I can't find much in Twistedspoon's post history to take issue with.

Pine seems town, so I'd vote BL over him. Also, with how many town PR's there have been, I want to vote BL as the scum part of the neighborhood.

VOTE: BunnyLover

p.edit: My mistake in counting, Mod just said that Knox submitted no night actions after N2. The PM clearly stated that Knox tracked on N1. That mistake is the mods, not mine.

@MOD: can you confirm in thread that in your PM to me you said it was Knox that performed the N1 action?

I don't expect he will, but it can't hurt to ask.

[splitfarvle]

Ah, and I just received a PM that states Pizza tracked Andy.

[Twistedspoon]

hmm

I can buy that PM bodyguarded no-one. I always thought optimum bodyguard play was to never bodyguard; but I've never had the role myself.

Tracker cop is an awkward setup though. However the delay in result communication could be a genuine error. The reasons for tracking PM seem good too.

I actually want to believe this

[Pine]

It makes zero sense for scum to kill Matt. He was obvious mislynch fodder, and probably would have gone next.

[Bunnylover]

Vote:splitarvle

[splitfarvle]

Does this mean we lost? If not, lynch Bunny tomorrow.

[mastin2]

Two bodyguards and (if your claim is truthful) a tracker does bump town's power up reasonably...but five scum? Even with two as potentially-no-qt-access traitors? With the claimed neighbors not being neighbors? When they have two strong PRs against only our few weak ones? (Other than our cop.)

No. 5 scum's the realm of 20-player games, not 17-player games.

Admittedly, the thought that both neighbors were fakeclaiming scum did cross my mind, since it seemed like the kind of gambit Pine WOULD pull off, but the setup suggests otherwise.

[mastin2]

Basically, we have
-A cop. Strongest PR.
-A miller. Weakens the cop, especially since it went unclaimed.
-Two bodyguards. And the setup reviewers would be incompetent if they did not anticipate the possibility that one would claim and then be CC'd, costing the town both of them at the same time. Not to mention, the fact that they DIE if they do their job correctly.
-A claimed tracker, not a strong investigative role.

...Against
-A rolecop (one who most likely did not have access)
-A jailkeeper (when there is no killing role for the town, so just a roleblocker--and probably had QT access)
...And three goons?

The town's PRs work on destroying themselves, while the scum's PRs augment and support each other, while still being viable claims to make and be considered town--the scum could have truthfully claimed to be a jailkeeper and likely would not have met much suspicion (at least not until both bodyguards died), and they truthfully claimed rolecop and could have potentially gotten away with it if it weren't done in the most scummy way possible.

If that's true? If that's the setup? I'm not going to take the blame for losing, man. That setup'd be DESIGNED to DESTROY the town. The town's PRs do not work at all together, they in fact quite hinder one another, and the scum are basically set up perfectly in order to win easily, since with five scum, they control nearly a third of the town from the start.

[mastin2]

Beyond that, what'd be required for split to be town?
Matt would have specifically had to have gone nowhere last night for the claim to be truthful, when Matt knew he was on the mislynch block and the only way he could realistically escape was to do his job and die for the town. And as a PR, he had no reason NOT to take an action last night, and no-actioning would be pretty much playing against a wincon.

And if he did, but was blocked? That'd require a second scum blocking role, which again bumps their power up to insanely high levels.
And how would the scum even know he was a PR, anyway? He dropped no visible hints, and their rolecop was eliminated. (Again, if they had another, insanely high scum power beyond anything approaching reasonable.) Just for the NK-wifom? Again, sabotaging their chances, since he was primed for a mislynch.

There's no reasonable scenario where split is town and there's five scum.

[Pine]

Where do you get five scum from? There's no evidence of that.