Open 435: Great Idea Mafia (Day 4)

[DoubleJD]

Well...shit. I think i lose lol

[DoubleJD]

OK

I have decided to go against my gut. Skip a bit to get to my reads if you want them instead. Im talking about theory right now.

Based on my reads...i can see two plausible scenarios.

Scenario A: Two baddies. If this is the case, it is correct for me to hide who i think they are. This is so, becasue the only way to win in Scenario A is to somehow get the baddies to night kill eachother after a nolynch or intentional mislynch. This would involve me and the other vt both fakeclaiming correctly after a nolynch/mislynch and also for the baddies to agree. I feel that the chance of success in such a scenario is very very remote. Itd be fun to try, but it likely wont succeed at all. In addition, following along with Scenario A will force a loss if it is actually Scenario B due to the fakeclaiming schtick. Theres also some counter play involved if the baddies realize whats up. Obviously since im saying all this...it means im going along with

Scenario B: 1 baddie. We win so long as hes lynched today or tomorrow. Very unlikely to have a mafiadayvig imo, so whatever we do doesnt matter. However, it means we lynch him...which if right forces a loss if it is actually scenario A.

Anywho...reads time

AXXLE: Town. There are two separate instances where he refuses to support/follow a townie wagon and instead elects to vote for a ww and a mafia. 1 instance is when pacman(town) is at L-1 and he decides to vote and raise questions about kondi instead. The wagon was such that it seemed unlikely that a hammer would be suspicious and the wagon has been there for a bit. The other instance is where he pulls pressure away from the Gararararar vs Izak thing, which clouded the yellow wagon, to continue to pressure yellow. At the time, a vote for izak instead would be perfectly acceptable.

Both of these instances support axxle as town. Both could be bussing, but i think its unlikely. Points against him are for being generally lurky and not posting his thought enough outside of these instances.

MISTER X: Werewolf. This is a long argument. I hate linking posts, but if any point requires clarity i will do so. The first thing i noticed was that Zoraster made a deal out of proclaiming kondi as scum. It is shortly after this that bb does his whole 'lyncher' thing. MrX pops in to talk about BB...but doesnt say a peep about kondi which was an equally interesting topic. He didnt say anything at all regarding kondi (wolf) when zoraster was going all "found scum guys!" on him.

Second thing: Later on, much later, the kondi wagon has some steam...and when questioned he mentions how the kondi wagon is awesome. This is weird for someone that ignored it origionally. Why not share agreement before hand but make such a supportive notion of it later? This instance does look like busing to me.

Third thing: He goes out of his way to emphasize how there are likely two scum teams...and iirc is the only one to do so. Theres a probability argument here, but he seems pretty damn sure with how persistent he is about it. I think he brings it up a total of 3-4 times.

Fourth thing: When pacman fakes a dayvig...his immediate reaction is "mafia 1shot dayvig" from the rules.

Fifth thing: Points out, while hopping on the izak wagon, that it was "kondi that started it?". This is weird as well. If you know who started it, why make it a question? If you dont know, why does it matter at all? If the thought process while making the post was "im gonna hop on kondi's izak wagon"...then maybe by making it a questionable thought it breaks a possible relationship with a wolfbuddy. This is probably my weakest point.

Sixth thing: Extensive 'helpful townie' look. Asking for prods, asking people to be active, etc.

Seventh thing: Mr X is fine with a vig shooting BB. If mrx was mafia, i think he would know yellow was a lover with bb. This is if they have daytalk.

Eighth!: Thinks izaks interaction with garararr was scumlike. Noway jose.

Ninth: Mcstab pressures mrx late.

Tenth: Discredits my attack on katsuki with a 'cough'.

The combined points, though very shakey individually, paint a picture of mrx as a very likely WW and also as unlikely mafia.

CDB: Heres where the issue of Scenario A and B came up in the first place. Arguments for Town
-Is against the massclaim, supports the cop claim
-excited, not scared posting.

Arguments for scum
-It makes NO sense why he would think izak was mafia. CDB 'liked' a post petapan had made stating my reasoning for izak not being mafia was flawed. This implies that he thought izak could then be mafia. However...izak was seen visiting mcstab the night of mcstab's death. Since when do mafia kill other mafia? His claim sucks here.

I pretty much stopped there, and couldnt make heads or tails of the rest of his posts. On the one hand, he sounds like a legit cop. Someone that is excited about their role is doesnt want to be massclaimed day1 and lose it instantly. On the other, wtf his claim is crap. So either hes lying, and thus mafia (because 2ww 2t doesnt work) or hes truthful but just not making sense. Gut says liar...but the odds of winning in scenario A are too remote for this to matter.



TLDR:
Axxle: Town
Mister x: Specifically WW
CDB: Maybe town, maybe mafia. If mafia, we're screwed. So lynch mister

[Axxle]

... that fails to explain the night kills. There's at least 1 mafia left.

[Axxle]

... that fails to explain the night kills. There's at least 1 mafia left.

So we should no lynch and hope they kill each other, according to your theory.

[DoubleJD]

then i just completely fucked up and there is only scenario A....unless mr somehow isnt a baddie :/

UNVOTE: mr

[ChannelDelibird]

Btw, few things:
<snip>
-Nobody has daytalk.

Just some things I clarified with the mod.

^ re: mafia knowing a buddy's lovers.

One thing I noticed from JD's analysis is that Mister X's reaction to pacman's fake day kill might have been that of a mafiate without a day gig in his team trying to cash in on it.

Re: petapan's post, at that point I was indeed of the belief that izak was a werewolf. I didn't mind what took people to the lynch as long as he was lynched (we could deal with the wagoners after we'd lynched him) so I welcomed petapan shooting down the reasons not to vote izak.

So I'm pretty much comfortable with a no lynch now. I don't think there's much chance of it changing anything but it looks unlikely to harm us.

UNVOTE: Mister X
VOTE: No Lynch

[ChannelDelibird]

Should be "day vig" above. Stupid bloody iPad.

[DoubleJD]

I mean, its possible mr is mafia, considering they didnt have daytalk. Theres a few times where he posts too closely with other wolves that bugged me, but hes a baddie one way or another. The only question is cbd...but if hes scum we lose. So w/e, lets

VOTE: no lynch

and see what happens.

[Axxle]

Cdb, should we coordinate our actions or just use them independently?

[DoubleJD]

Independent is best i think. You get fake coordination most of the time, and when you both hit the same target its good anyway. If cbd is alive tomorrow, he should out his result first though.

Also, if there are two baddies...prisoner's dilemma. Have fun.

[ChannelDelibird]

Yeah, we need to keep 'em independent.

[quadz08]

A Lynch Has Been Reached.

Votecount 3.2

No Lynch (3) - Axxle, ChannelDelibird, DoubleJD
DoubleJD (1) - Mister X
Mister X (0) -
ChannelDelibird (0) -
Axxle

Not Voting: (0) -

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Please let me know if there are any errors in the votecount.

Night 3 begins now.
Night actions are due in (expired on 2012-08-30 11:17:43).

[quadz08]

Night 3 is over.

Axxle was killed. He was a

Town Cop

.

Day 4 begins now!

Votecount 4.0

DoubleJD (0) -
Mister X (0) -
ChannelDelibird (0) -

Not Voting: (3) - ChannelDelibird, Mister X, DoubleJD

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch.

Please let me know if there are any errors in the votecount.

Deadline is in (expired on 2012-09-13 21:10:05).

[ChannelDelibird]

Oh hey, thread opens just as I go to bed.

VOTE: Mister X

Tracked him to Axxle.

[DoubleJD]

Mister, why should i vote CDB over you?

[DoubleJD]

Im content sitting on my ass and waiting for Mister to say something.

[ChannelDelibird]

You're really gonna do this, eh, X?

[quadz08]

I will look for a replacement for Mister X, as he seems to have siteflaked.

[quadz08]

Sir Elton Hercules John (a hydra of xRECKONERx and Untrod Tripod) will be replacing in for Mister X, effective immediately.

[ChannelDelibird]

Hi guys. Die guys.

[DoubleJD]

I lied. Im really not all that interested in sitting on my ass. You got till September 4th, then i just gamble that CBD isnt scum and go against all the warning bells in my head.

Points
1) I am town, and this is obvious by the game not being over right now (CBD still has a vote on you)

2) Obvious town doesnt get lynched. Therefore its you v cbd. That is all you have to worry about.

3) No lynching a potential single mafia v townies is hilarious.

So get to it. Why should i vote cbd instead of you?

[Sir Elton Hercules John]

Hello there, this is the Reck half of the hydra reporting for duty.

When quadz08 asked us to replace in, he just said it was a three-player LYLO. I agreed to replace in and convinced UT to do it too because quadz said that CDB was in the LYLO, and my immediate thought was, "Holy shit, CDB is easy to read, this will be simple if we end up town."

I am sad now to see that CDB has a vote out on us, and DoubleJD hasn't hammered, which means CDB is confirmed scum.

Haven't read the thread yet, but I guess there's no harm in claiming

Retired Werewolf Hunter

. What are the other claims out there?

The two of us will be reading this thread at some point, though I suppose it'll mostly be us reading the two of you specifically and ignoring everything else.

[Sir Elton Hercules John]

EBWOP:

Vote: CDB

Why you gotta be scum, man? You soil the name of The Shirt.

[DoubleJD]

So, you guys just want me to flip a coin then? I already know you're gonna vote for each other. Im asking for guidance because i really cant make heads or tails of it.

[Sir Elton Hercules John]

Heh, just realized we town-slipped by claiming Retired Werewolf Hunter before even reading the thread after Mister X already claimed the exact same role.

Our predecessor was shit and has little content in his ISO.

DoubleJD, all I can tell you is that if you feel like giving a few days, I can reread and give you actual thoughts/guidance. But I just got done having Scummers at my house for the past 1.5 weeks and need a few days to destress and unwind a little bit before I can even attempt to read 20 pages of a game that's already in LYLO.

We're town. Consistency in claims is about the only thing I can say at this point. CDB is scum and the only reason I know that is because he voted us right out the gate and you didn't hammer. I can make a more compelling case eventually.