A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[MagnaofIllusion]

(I've sent my jailkeep vote in.)

[Shadow1psc]

I've sent my jailkeep vote in.

[Benmage]

Before I send mine in.. we're doing townreads aye?

Whose some list of 3-5 people have been using?

[Shadow1psc]

Before I send mine in.. we're doing townreads aye?

Whose some list of 3-5 people have been using?

We haven't publicly posted a list. Obviously you want to protect strong town reads or claimed PRs.

[Minimum]

I've sent my jailkeep vote in.

[Magua]

*begins reading the thread*

*has not sent in a vote yet*

[Benmage]

Sent

[kortul]

Vote sent.

[Tyene Sand]

*has not sent in a vote yet*

[Shinori]

I Haven't sent in my jailkeep vote yet.

[Plessiezarus]

Don't really like the rush to end the day early when there are still several people who've yet to really check in (and/or who might be replaced). Not really thrilled by how the discussion of today's jailing mechanic just dried up, either. Though the people saying it's best if everyone votes to jail a town-read (but that people shouldn't give away any more information about their vote than that) are probably right, so. Meh.

Going back over the day 2 events.

Based on the flavor of the night events

, DCLXVI killed one of the masons.

The bolded seems like a really weird choice of words. "Based on the flavor"? DCLXVI was

scum

, had an

unstoppable kill

and

nobody else died last night except the masons

. Why do you need to consider the

flavour

to work out that DCL killed one of the masons?

This really feels like the sort of thing somebody would say to avoid giving away inside knowledge they might have, or to avoid giving the impression they have such knowledge.

I wouldn't find it odd for bvoigt-scum to claim after Shadow1psc's Torturer claim, actually. 1) He could be distracted and missed Shadow1psc's claim (did he mention it before claiming? I should check but lazy etc.), in which case his faction probably doesn't have daytalk; 2) He thought he could get away with it, because deliberately blocking a vig on the night he can kill might not be in town's best interest. Odd-night vig can be a sleek claim for scum to make, because there are fewer 'missing' kills than with a full vig.

I don't

think

(1) works -- bvoigt moved his vote from Shadow after the claim and started listing Shadow as a town-read. But rereading him, he never seemed all that enthused about the idea Shadow was scum, despite the vote, so I guess it's just about possible (he never explicitly commented on the claim). (2) is probably right, I guess.

Starbuck might be some weird third party.

Lots of the reads seem really odd here, and you're being

far

too confident and definitive for this stage of the game, but this in particular seems to be crying out for an explanation. What led you to this conclusion?

For one if you think I'd buss in a multi-ball on D1 you're kidding yourself or don't know me at all

I think you're trying to create this imaginary scene in which you pushed so hard on DCL and lead his wagon with a fiery passion. You didn't. Reality is, he comes in, you basically attack him and say you don't like his replacement entrance. Then you just start pointing out things that any person would've already saw

This is silly. Regfan didn't single-handedly get DCLXVI lynched (Tyene for one deserves as much or more credit, I think), but he certainly did a lot to make it happen. He clearly wasn't just "pointing out things that any person" could have seen (except in the trivial sense that it was all information available in the thread). Lots of people saw what Regfan pointed out and didn't suspect DCL because of it.

You were one of these people.

A little humility might not go amiss.

We're not lynching until Maguatroll catches up on some of the reading and posts his thoughts as well as all the people who just got prodded (Feysal/Mocking/Starbuck) come in and post. I still think Shinori outting whatever information he has today rather than in the future is better.

Yes. I really don't understand the rush to end the day. I want to have a read on Magua. I want to sort out my null reads. I want to know who, if anybody, is being replaced and to get a read on them. How does ending the day quickly help the town?

I don't have much to say other than that Pless's strong scumreads list looks great, but the weak scumreads list just looks like reads they can't convince themselves to let go of.

Assuming you mean our weak scum-reads on Minimum and Tyene here, not the weak scum-read on kortul? (If you think we're wrong about kortul, then why -- has your own read changed since yesterday?)

Should everyone confirm that they've sent their jail vote before we finish this lynch?

Yes. And vice versa, too -- I don't understand the rush to end the day before everybody has had a chance to work out who they'll be voting for.

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

(Kortul isn't scum)

From your Stefan wagon analysis Jal,

Kortul

, Staeg and Sapor look the worst.

Does this mean you've changed your mind about kortul being town? If not, could you explain in more detail why you think (or thought?) that?

~ Pless

[Plessiezarus]

Anyway, doubt it matters much since so many people have already sent in votes, but ... jailing Shinori sounds like a terrible plan. Would much prefer -- given that he's softclaimed to start with -- that he reveals any information he has now.

I don't want to waste a jail on a scum-read just because he tells me he got some information last night which he doesn't feel like sharing with the town yet. (Why would somebody soft-claim a power role then asked to be jailed, anyway? Shinori was doing nothing to make himself a likely night-kill before he did that...)

Requesting to be jailed for what it's worth. I'll keep the rest of my info to myself as I'm not to sure of it YET.

Ugh. No. I can't stand any of these posts:

(1) You suggest, out of the blue, that you might have some information that could, potentially, clear bvoigt.
(2) You refuse to reveal it until

after

bvoigt is lynched.
(3) You repeatedly and unsubtly soft-claim a power role.
(4) ... and then you ask to be jailed?

Why would you do this?

Shinori reads townish, and that "I have something important to talk about" seemed townish as well, but frankly if the alternative is for him to be the jail target, I'd just rather he outed his info now and the jailing be kept private.

Shinori has already suggested that whether to share the info wasn't such an obvious decision. I don't particularly feel like making that decision for him. The jailing thing isn't that good anyway.

Shinori hasn't done or said anything to make me think he's going to be better at making the decision than the town as a collective. The jailing thing

isn't

great, it's true, but the one obvious positive it does have is that, by not saying who we'll jail, we can force scum to second-guess themselves and perhaps let people live they'd rather kill (for fear of wasting a shot by targeting a player that is protected).

Announcing who we'll jail -- even if it was somebody I'd want to ensure was alive tomorrow (ie. "somebody not Shinori") throws that away. And for what? So that Shinori can wait a day before revealing or making up whatever information he claims to have? Ugh.

I don't mind a Shinori jail

Why are you still generating such massive hydra dissonance when you're a single head? How did you get from 1617 to here? One minute you're in love with Benmage's plan, then kortul suggests jailing Shinori and suddenly you're the game's biggest champion of

that

idea. Make your mind up, please.

~ Pless

[kortul]

The bolded seems like a really weird choice of words. "Based on the flavor"? DCLXVI was

scum

, had an

unstoppable kill

and

nobody else died last night except the masons

. Why do you need to consider the

flavour

to work out that DCL killed one of the masons?

Pless, i am methodical, and i am taking notes along with my reading, it helps to remember details. The day started with a long flavour text for night events, several names where mentioned there, and from the flips after the scene i understood that both character names were in that flavour, so i made a note that "Based on the flavor of the night events, DCL killed Snowstorm", at that moment i thought that it may be important. Then i began to look at all this from different angles, trying to figure out why both masons were dead, and whether this can help us to determine is it multiball or not. Since the fact that SnowStorm was mason is more relevant for the logic than his name, i changed his name in my post draft to the "one of the masons", it was easier than operating with mason names later on.

[Plessiezarus]

After rereading day 1 we're moving Starbuck back into our (weak) town pile. Still arguing with Zar over some of the other null reads.

We've sent our jailkeep vote in.

~ Pless

[kortul]

Pless, is there something in particular that you think was a town tell for Starbuck? Or was your read improvement based on something else? I was doing her ISO recently, and your impressions may help to read her (or understand you) better.

[Pandora]

I've sent my jailkeep vote in.

[Lyanna Stark]

@Lyanna

Jal spent most of yesterday without a vote or a choose out there. I defended their lack of vote to edd as they said they needed to iso a few people and then would vote, but still they did not vote until deadline. The timing of their choose is suspect as well. In Post 1391 is a vote count with feysal at 8 choose votes and dcl with 12 votes. In Post 1395 jal says that dcl looks town and that she can't get a read on feysal so would prefer him.

I voted for Edd in my first post. In my third post I changed Edd to my Choose (to line up with the bigger wagons) and voted Snow.

I had no choose for approximately 3 hours after taking it off Edd. So other than my first two posts and about 3 hours on Sept 3 - how is that going without a choose for most of the day?

You have more of a case with with my vote, though which I admit I didn't put down on anyone for a long awhile

towards the end of the day

. Mostly because the wagon I actually wanted (Sap) didn't look like it would go anywhere and I hadn't at the time gone through and looked at everyone I wanted to. Still hadn't looked at the Stefan ISO at the end of the day, actually. Except to see his claim and the stupid references to Tyrion some claimed.

When did you "defend" my lack of vote to Edd? I tried looking at your ISO, but Ctrl-F can only go so far. Also, how would that relevant to anything? If you did defend it - so what?

How was the timing of my choose choice suspect? You just listed how many votes were on each when I voted, but you fail to explain why it is suspect. Actually, you just listed that information with nothing corresponding to it.

Okay, that still doesn't change the fact that when you removed your vote you went without one until deadline. My apologies for mistaking how long you went without a choose, I thought it had been longer.

I...don't have a case. I was merely noting your voting/choosing patterns along with Feysal's because CDL listed you both as scum. Considering, as I said, he listed one of his partners as scum in the scum game he provided it could point to a pattern as some people do feel the need to list one of their partners as scum and make sure to mention them. And, yes even though you want to argue against it, some scum also feel the need to give their partner a vote early in the game/soon after replacing in. Your arguing that he wouldn't irrelevant if it's a type of behavior that he engages in. It's not an exact science and is why I asked if anyone had any experience with scum DLC before.

For the rest, why am I having to spell out the obvious?

1. I didn't defend you; I was mistaken. I defended Mockinjaye for not voting when Edd was saying it was suspicious. So, I'm not a hypocrite. Yay! I think it's quite obvious that if I'm saying that an action is suspicious now. It's an acknowledgement of a previous stance that (I thought) I was reversing.

2. This one is even more surprising that you need spelled out. Feysal was the only other available wagon counter to DCL. Feysal had 8 votes and DCL had 12. You added a vote to the Feysal wagon. Well now that DCL flipped scum, it looks like you tried to throw momentum onto the counter wagon. This doesn't need to be explained as it's self explanatory. It's like when Zdenek brought up a post of mine and said if bvoigt flips scum then it would weaken the town read on me. I knew exactly what he meant because it looks like I avoided the bvoigt wagon and gave him a weak distancing read. I didn't have to ask for clarification because I knew and answered directly for what I did, and since you've played mafia before I have to believe that you would already know this bit about counterwagons so I'm really not following on why you needed it explained.

[Lyanna Stark]

That's not really an answer.

Actually, it is an answer. Just not the type of answer you're apparently looking for. So what

are

you looking for?

Nacho has usually been much more reserved in games I've been with him in.

How many games are you basing the meta read on?

[Minimum]

Shinori hasn't done or said anything to make me think he's going to be better at making the decision than the town as a collective.

Shinori actually knows what the relevant information is.

[Lyanna Stark]

*have not sent my vote in*

I'll get back to this tomorrow.

[Staeg]

Yeah excuse me but plessiezar kinda entered the thread and towned everything up a notch or twenty; I pretty much agree with everything he says.

Also, I sent in my jailvote.

[Eddard Stark]

Each of the nine constituent regions of the Seven Kingdoms have bastard surnames decreed by custom. Bastards are given these surnames to hold them apart from their fathers' houses. They are: Flowers, Hill, Pyke, Rivers, Sand, Snow, Stone, Storm, Waters.

Day 2, Votecount 7

bvoigt (10) - Dolorous Edd, Staeg, Benmage, Shadow1psc Mastermind of Sin, Shinori, kortul, Pandora, BBmolla, MagnaofIllusion

Saporerint (1) - Tyene Sand

Not Voting (13):

Minimum, Lyanna Stark, Mockingjaye, Plums Yo Mamma, Magua, Regfan, Zdenek, Bvoigt, Plessiezarus, Feysal, Saporerint, Starbuck, Jal

With 24 alive it takes 13 to lynch.

• Deadline
  : 22nd September at 00:39am Ireland time. (GMT+1)
  
• Countdown to deadline
  : (expired on 2012-09-21 19:39:47)

[Jal]

@Zdenek

:

Ideally, descriptions of his play as town and scum, and why his play here is closer to his scum play.

Have not played scum with him, and I think he's playing differently than what I'm used to seeing him (I'm used to him being more reserved) as town. That is the best way I can put it. He usually seems a bit more. . . methodical.

I have watched a scum game of his, though. Open 436 https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=22927 where he seems more emotionally driven, which seems similar to how I feel he is playing here. That is why I asked Plum who wrote the one time, because I don't know how Plum writes and that didn't seem very-Nacho-like to me.

@Kortul

:

Jal, your presentation of several of my reads is not even close. Vote does not equal scum read, and you yourself said good words about compromises on day 1. If it wasn't intentional and you were just skimming at that moment and all of this is from memory, then take another look. And i have two questions.

So, which do you think are not presented accurately?

Here's the deal Kortul. Almost everyone you looked up you either voted or chose. Sometimes you didn't initially say they were scum when voting or choose in, I give you that, but sometimes you would reinforce the idea that you actually really did they were scum all along (your Shadow choose). I'll give you Greenknight though. Why did you choose him?

In the post 1285, that you mentioned, Sapo was scummy for you (even more then his predecessor), you commented that "There's a 75% chance I won't be riding the Shadow gravy train today. Apologies.", and you didn't give your opinion on bvoigt, and their wagons were close (6, 8, 8). You suspected Benmage of pulling people towards Shadow wagon, and thought that Sapo is scum, made a big post of it, isn't it a perfect time for a push and vote placement?

And a second question. Is Saporeint still you scum read? Because after that big post you forgot him for the rest of the day 1 and day 2.

1. I ISO'd Sapo, gave my thoughts, asked questions, wanted to see any reactions and answers. I then wanted to ISO more people before actually putting down a vote. Either way, part of me thought it would be useless anyhow if I did vote due to some strong town reads people were getting from him at the time.

I mentioned Shadow because I believe Min posted about him while I was writing. I already had formed an opinion of Shadow by then anyway, whereas someone like Bvoight hadn't posted much and I hadn't noticed him.

I hadn't looked up Bvoight yet I believe. So why would I mention him?

I forgot about the Benmage stuff way later on to the point it didn't matter, which is why I wanted to bring it up now. However, I was only focusing on Sapo when I made that post, so Benmage's recent superman of Bvoight wasn't of concern then.

By the way, I wanted your opinion about what I said regarding Benmage and his pulling off Bvoigt's wagon. What are your thoughts?

2. I do think Sapo is still scummy. I said what I've wanted to say D1. Don't give a crap about the pm/qt thing, as it doesn't change my opinion of them. I'll tell you if I change my mind to otherwise.

@Lyanna

:

How many games are you basing the meta read on?

Two finished ones. He was a replacement for both.

Newbie 1239 and Newbie 1245.

[Jal]

I...don't have a case. I was merely noting your voting/choosing patterns along with Feysal's because CDL listed you both as scum. Considering, as I said, he listed one of his partners as scum in the scum game he provided it could point to a pattern as some people do feel the need to list one of their partners as scum and make sure to mention them. And, yes even though you want to argue against it, some scum also feel the need to give their partner a vote early in the game/soon after replacing in. Your arguing that he wouldn't irrelevant if it's a type of behavior that he engages in. It's not an exact science and is why I asked if anyone had any experience with scum DLC before.

For the rest, why am I having to spell out the obvious?

1. I didn't defend you; I was mistaken. I defended Mockinjaye for not voting when Edd was saying it was suspicious. So, I'm not a hypocrite. Yay! I think it's quite obvious that if I'm saying that an action is suspicious now. It's an acknowledgement of a previous stance that (I thought) I was reversing.

2. This one is even more surprising that you need spelled out. Feysal was the only other available wagon counter to DCL. Feysal had 8 votes and DCL had 12. You added a vote to the Feysal wagon. Well now that DCL flipped scum, it looks like you tried to throw momentum onto the counter wagon. This doesn't need to be explained as it's self explanatory. It's like when Zdenek brought up a post of mine and said if bvoigt flips scum then it would weaken the town read on me. I knew exactly what he meant because it looks like I avoided the bvoigt wagon and gave him a weak distancing read. I didn't have to ask for clarification because I knew and answered directly for what I did, and since you've played mafia before I have to believe that you would already know this bit about counterwagons so I'm really not following on why you needed it explained.

More of a case, meaning, you have more of a point to make.

For the rest of your post, don't try to turn this back on me. Spell it out for me, eh?

I had to make you aware of your mistake. Also, I never called you a hypocrite or even insinuated it, so stop that bullshit now. Yeah, when you say stuff which isn't true, expect to be both asked and called out about it. Get over it. Your over-defensiveness of having me point this out to you is scummy as shit. The other problem is, it's that you feel a need to almost somehow distance yourself from me. There's no reason, at all, to bring up how tried to defend me to Edd even though you're wrong.

This

is odd and I don't like it one bit.

For the next part, I'll ask this: Other than choosing Feysal towards the end of the day, in what way would you say I was actively trying to get momentum for his lynch instead of DCL?

Also, did you go back through and reread the part where I said DCL leans town, or did you ISO me?