Micro 32: Think Twice

[GreyICE]

Welcome to Micro 32, think twice!

These are mostly the same rules as for Micro 14, as they worked pretty well there. Some changes to the setup that you should probably review!

Rules

- For the love of god, follow the rules of the website
- Don't be a total dick
- No trying to break the game by quoting PMs, timestamps, any shit like that.

Deadlines, et al

- Deadlines will be every 10 days
- You will be prodded if you have not posted in 48 hours (Weekends will count as 24 hours for the entire weekend).
- On the third prod you will be replaced, deadlines will be extended until replacement is found.
- If there is no lynch at deadline, the first time deadline will be extended 4 days. The second time, scum get a kill (this probably means they win)

Special Mechanics

The first lynch of day 1 is special. If you lynch town, I will reveal their alignment in the thread. They will die at the end of day 2. If you lynch scum, they will die as normal

Three Players have received the following Role PM:

Town Role PM

Yo, you're town. That means you can post and vote and stuff.

You win when all the evil, evil scum (who are also terrible people) are dead and buried.

One player has the following PM:

Goon Role PM

You're a normal goon! That means you're terrible, horrible, and evil. But you do have a streak of loyalty. If your godfather dies, you will commit suicide. I guess you're actually a member of the Yakuza, not the mafia. Your godfather and you may chat for 24 hours after the game opens in <THIS QT>

You win when there's the same number of town as there are scum. Because then you can gun them down in cold blood. You monster.

One player has received this role PM

Godfather Role PM

You're a mafia godfather! That means you're scheming mastermind of evil. You have one minion who has sworn his undying loyalty to you. Too bad you don't care if he lives or dies! Perils of being a minion of an evil overlord. Your minion and you may chat for 24 hours after the game opens in <THIS QT>

You win when there's the same number of town as there are scum. Because then you can gun them down in cold blood. You monster.

This is a modnote. If you manage to duplicate THIS, it has to be intentional. I won't be very amused.

Players

IceGuy
Klick
basketballstar24
Darger
Seanald

[GreyICE]

PMs now out!

All players have confirmed!

[Klick]

So this is just Vengeful, but the Vengekill is decided by the town?

VOTE: Seanald

[IceGuy]

VOTE: basketballstar24

[basketballstar24]

Hello everyone.

Vote: Klick

for posting first

[Seanald]

VOTE: basetballstar

for not having anything related to basketball in your avatar

[Darger]

VOTE: Seanald. For having shit in your avatar.

[Klick]

VOTE: basketballstar

Yes, I'm gambling on a 50-50 chance.

[GreyICE]

Um, okay, that was quick!

Basketballstar is

Town

He will die at the end of Day 2.

Day 2 now begins!

[Klick]

-_-

[IceGuy]

Yes, I'm gambling on a 50-50 chance.

No, you weren't "gambling on a 50-50 chance".

There is absolutely no reason to quickhammer in this game. The D1 lynch should go to somebody who is scummy but not the prime suspect - you either get rid of scum or you confirm a potential mislynch as town. To pinpoint somebody like that, you need interactions.

That's assuming you're town, of course.

What is much, much more likely is that you're the goon, and that was a gambit. Your quickhammer deprived us of any information we could've gleaned from D1.

You're now pretty much confirmed scum, but you don't care because either way, we only have one lynch, and we must pinpoint the godfather: If we lynch you today, basketballstar dies at the end of the day, and we're in 2-1 LyLo. If we don't lynch you, we either hit the godfather today (again in a 2-1 situation) or lose immediately (mislynch and basketballstar die, leaving us at 1-2).

[Klick]

That automatically confirms someone on his wagon as scum; therefore, someone's vote was scum-motivated.

VOTE: Seanald

PEdit: And if I'm town, I -was- gambling on a 50-50 chance.

[IceGuy]

That automatically confirms someone on his wagon as scum; therefore, someone's vote was scum-motivated.

VOTE: Seanald

PEdit: And if I'm town, I -was- gambling on a 50-50 chance.

Look, we already know you're scum. You don't need to make those fluff-filled posts with the WIFOM vote cherry on top.

[Klick]

Alright, let's assume I'm scum. You're still proposing that someone else be lynched.

First of all, I'm obviously fine wih that either way; If I'm town, I literally can't be lynched, or else we lose. If I'm scum, it literally makes no difference whether we lynch me or not.

[Klick]

And your confirming of me as scum is literally just based on the assumption that a town player would never gamble like that.

[IceGuy]

Yes, that's why I said the part of you becoming essentially confirmed scum didn't deter you from the gambit. There is simply no reason why a town player should attempt such a gambit.

[Klick]

Look at it from my PoV.

I have four players, two of which are scum, and one of which, when lynched, will give an instant victory.

This means there's a 50% chance of success and a 50% chance of failure.

I'm not confirmed scum because I didn't play like you thought I

should

have.

[Klick]

Oh god, LyLo. UNVOTE:

VOTE: IceGuy

[Seanald]

if you know hes scum, why no vote on him ice?

and klick either way you look at it, this is a team game and you denied the team the opportunity to work as a team which makes your quickhammer look real scummy. I get hung up on you because itd be too stupid to make that move as scum, or your going for the quick win and you don't give a shit and your hoping wifom will work its magic like it is on me....fuck tits.

[Klick]

Seanald, if I had hammered mafia, what would your reaction be?

[basketballstar24]

"If" is a good word to avoid here.

Fuck you Klick. I waited a fuckin month for this game and I get quicklynched. Thanks a lot.

Anyway, I have strong feelings that Klick is scum.

This is total WIFOM shit but Klick voted Seanald in RVS. Then IceGuy voted me. Then Seanald voted me. At last Klick hammered. Since mafia have time to talk first 24 hours of game time, they probably planned this (seanald putting me at L-1 and then Klick hammering). I'm totally leaning to the scum pair {Seanald, Klick}. Let's lynch one of them.

Okay, Klick I'll calculate the actual probability of you lynching scum.

If you're scum: 100% of killing town.
If you're town: 50% of killing town.

There's something out there called expected value that I must introduce to you. Thus, since there is a 2/5 chance of being scum and 3/5 chance of being town, the probability is less than 50%. Think twice.

Vote: Klick

,

FoS: Seanald

[Klick]

It's LyLo. If you keep your vote on me, we'll lose.

And, since it's from my perspective and I can eliminate myself from the equation, there was actually a 50% chance of ME hammering scum.

[basketballstar24]

Yeah, try convincing us that you are. How should we know? My vote stands.

[Klick]

That's a terrible argument, as it could be used against everyone to the same effect.

[IceGuy]

We are not lynching Klick.

I repeat, we are not lynching Klick.

"But IceGuy, you said he's scum?! Did you change your opinion?"

No.

There is only one scenario where lynching Klick is a good thing, and that's the case he's the godfather.
That would mean he, as a player who immediately loses upon getting lynched, attempted a gambit that involves him getting lynched with a high probability.
There is a minuscule probability he's town, but him being godfather is even less probable.

Klick is the goon.

That means we have the following situation today (from a neutral POV):
basketballstar as confirmed town.
Klick as goon.
Of {Darger, Seanald, IceGuy} two are town and one is the godfather.

If we lynch the godfather, we win. If we don't, we have the following situation:
Klick as goon.
One godfather.
One town.
meaning we lose.

If we would lynch Klick today, we'd have the following situation tomorrow (from a neutral POV):
Of {Darger, Seanald, IceGuy} two are town and one is the godfather.

If we lynch the godfather, we win. If we don't, we have the following situation:
One godfather.
One town.
meaning we lose.

We are in LyLo either way. The only difference is that today, we have basketballstar as an extra voice and vote of confirmed town, and quickhammers aren't that easy because scum needs to coordinate two votes instead of just hammering.

Therefore, lynching Klick is a bad move although he's pretty much confirmed goon.

If you do not understand this concept, please replace out immediately and never play Mafia on this site again. Thanks.