Micro 45 - Artemis Fowl Game Over

[Shamrock]

Lieutenant Briar Cudgeon, VT.

Chaos goes next.

[ChaosOmega]

Commander Julius Root, one-shot RB, blocked Shamrock N2.

Kmd is next.

[Kmd4390]

Chix verbil, VT

[Kmd4390]

And that's everyone since mala already claimed.

Mala, remind me. Why didn't you use your ability N1? Getting killed was more valuable?

Chaos, why shamrock? And why N2?

Shamrock, what did you want to say after massclaim.

Prohawk, without using the words "I'm town", why is someone more worthy of today's lynch than you?

It looks like scum got some pretty intense fakeclaims considering my character is the only one who isn't a huge deal in the first book. The one that really jumps out is cudgeon as a VT.

Actually. Chaos, what is the flavor for Root as a RB.

I think I have a slight lean towards a Prohawk/shamrock team. I can easily see a scum RB claiming town RB though so I have doubts. The big thing in Chaos's favor though is that I think scum jumped all over "let's lynch GNR for lurking". I have to look back, but I believe it was prohawk who was the worst offender of that for voting but saying he wasn't pushing the lynch or something like that (all from memory, not looking back yet, so could be wrong). If I remember right, shamrock was a big part of that as well.

I still think mala is town because the claim seems to elaborate to be fake although I realize that could be flawed logic. Mala, do you have flavor for only being able to commute N1?

Actually, mala and chaos's one shot claims kind of support each other although there is the chance of copying on chaos's part.

So yeah that's where I'm at right now. Leaning prohawk/shamrock. Open to possibility of chaos scum although I'm not leaning in that direction. Mala is my strongest town read.

I'd like everyone else's thoughts on every player as well.

[Malakittens]

I did use my ability Night 1. It was the only Night I could use it and I couldn't pick another night.

What do you mean getting killed was more valuable? Considering I am a Night 1 commuter if I drew the nightkill to myself on Night 1 instead of someone else we wouldn't have lost any players.

What made you think that I just wanted to die instead of using my role?

Why does your beginning post, but then the ending of your post towards me totally contradict each other? Beginning of your posts seems to me that you didn't understand my role at all, but the ending you totally do.

---
In a Day 2 post Mala wrote this:

I'm Captain Holly Short. I have the ability to commute Night 1, but

only

Night 1. Basically for me stating that I have a PR in Day 1 was me trying to get the Nightkill directed towards me, so we don't lose someone from the N1 NK. It failed because the scum did not target me, but they went after Mehdi.

[Shamrock]

Okay. I was putting this off because I had a lot of work to do and wanted to reread the thread before posting.

I am reasonably confident that Malakittens is town. I did a skim of her recent games and she's been scum very rarely, which means her scum game is underdeveloped and I don't think it's likely that she'd pull something like that claim as scum. In the one closed game I found where she was scum she claimed VT and played pretty orthodox. Additionally, her posts feel very town to me.

Assuming Mala is town, then, that leaves three possibilities:

ProHawk/Chaos: This doesn't seem terribly likely. The eagerness with which ProHawk pursued the policy lynch on GNR seems out-of-character for ProHawk based on his posting. And the way Chaos was at his throat so quickly after replacing in makes this less likely.

ProHawk/kmd: Not impossible, but not likely either based on their day 1 interactions, which just don't look like scum/scum to me. Their posts during RVS don't look like reactions that scum would have to each other, and there is too much of a sizing-up feel to the dialogue that follows between them.

kmd/Chaos: This seems like the most likely pairing. kmd was soft-fighting the GNR policy wagon. I don't see any interactions that make me think it's unlikely. Chaos hasn't mentioned kmd a single time since replacing in, which is in line with how he played when we were scum together in a mini.

[Shamrock]

kmd, can you explain what reversed your reads on ProHawk and on me? You've been calling ProHawk town all game and I'm really not liking the way you come into lylo calling for a lynch on your townreads without even looking seriously at Chaos.

[Kmd4390]

My scum reads died and flipped town. And like I said, I'm sure the wagon on GNR was scum motivated which would make that slot likely town. But to say I'm not "seriously looking" is a huge stretch when I clearly said otherwise.

[Shamrock]

Scum motivated? That makes no sense; it was led by Mehdi. You seem to be completely disregarding the possibility that he is scum.

[ProHawk]

Hey guys, I apologize that my day has been crazy busy. I can't sit down to make a proper post with my reads until tomorrow, just a heads up.

[Kmd4390]

Shamrock, more often than not, the leader of such a movement is town. It's the sheep that are usually scum.

While I'm on a computer rather than phone and in a mafia playing mode, let me look over that whole thing now:
-Let's see. Mehditown votes GNR because scum is in the "useless pool" (GNR/mala)
-abstatown follows, obviously wanting a reaction.
-Then Prohawk "Reason: Lurking, handing the game over to scum." Translation: GNR is town, but he's giving scum the game, so we can blame him after we mislynch him.
-Then Shamrock. "Nobody is hammering shos until GNR posts something useful, and if he does not post something useful, then we are lynching him instead." So we lynch someone who isn't "useful" rather than someone who we think is scum.

See, it's pretty much how I remembered it. Two now known town players jumped on someone and the two I think are scum followed for reasons that DONT EVEN SHOW A SCUM READ.

But wait. We have lynching wagons too:
Shos (5-LYNCH): kmd4390,

Robocopter87

, ProHawk,

absta101, Mehdi2277

^I've been on the site for four years and have seen exactly one Day 1 mislynch that didn't contain scum on the wagon and that lynch happened on Page 1. I know myself to be town, so Prohawk is scum here. Almost 100% guaranteed.

absta101 (4-LYNCH): Shamrock, kmd4390, ProHawk, Robocopter87
^Day 2. There's Prohawk again. Although I admit this day leans more towards Chaos as a buddy with Shamrock on the wagon with Prohawk (DGB always says scum won't put all their eggs in one basket) and Chaos with his vote sitting without any danger on Prohawk. However, Prohawk's Day 1 GNR vote looks so much like scum going after town and I find that to be a stronger tell than this one.

Hell, Prohawk/mala isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Either way, this is the equation I'm seeing:
Prohawk+X=TheScumTeam

[Shamrock]

Do you think a ProHawk/Chaos scumteam is a possibility

[Malakittens]

What I don't see is how a RB'er would be useful in a game this small to the town.

[ChaosOmega]

Chaos, why shamrock? And why N2?

At the end of D2, I thought ProHawk and Shamrock were scum, and I had a feeling ProHawk wouldn't want to do the kill with all the pressure on him, so I tried to block who I thought was his partner. ProHawk/Shamrock could still technically be possible if ProHawk performed the kill N2, but I'm inclined to think that's not the case. Mala's likely town, which leaves ProHawk/Kmd.

Actually. Chaos, what is the flavor for Root as a RB.

I can target a player to yell at them and prevent them from doing anything else at night.

I'll wait to read over ProHawk's post before placing a vote, but I'm almost positive I'm voting for ProHawk.

[Shamrock]

ProHawk/Shamrock could still technically be possible if ProHawk performed the kill N2, but I'm inclined to think that's not the case.

Why are you inclined to think this?

[Shamrock]

What the heck is that tag doing in there

[Shamrock]

Oh nvm I can't read.

[Kmd4390]

Shamrock, a possibility? Absolutely. Maybe he saw a buddy being wagoned, panicked, and decided to bus. That's absolutely possible. It's just not the direction I'm leaning in.

Chaos, if I'm prohawk's buddy, why am I coming up with him as scum in my analysis?

[Malakittens]

To distance?

[Kmd4390]

In LYLO out of nowhere?

[ProHawk]

But wait. We have lynching wagons too:
Shos (5-LYNCH): kmd4390,

Robocopter87

, ProHawk,

absta101, Mehdi2277

^I've been on the site for four years and have seen exactly one Day 1 mislynch that didn't contain scum on the wagon and that lynch happened on Page 1. I know myself to be town, so Prohawk is scum here. Almost 100% guaranteed.

absta101 (4-LYNCH): Shamrock, kmd4390, ProHawk, Robocopter87
^Day 2. There's Prohawk again. Although I admit this day leans more towards Chaos as a buddy with Shamrock on the wagon with Prohawk (DGB always says scum won't put all their eggs in one basket) and Chaos with his vote sitting without any danger on Prohawk. However, Prohawk's Day 1 GNR vote looks so much like scum going after town and I find that to be a stronger tell than this one.

Either way, this is the equation I'm seeing:
Prohawk+X=TheScumTeam

KMD, in answer to your question. The reason being is that lynching me would end the game.

Now for my scum reads, thank you for the detailed analysis to help me see this one by the way. Take a look at the first Shos lynch.

I think its an interesting plan by scum to have killed off the majority of the players on the first lynching squad except two. Myself and KMD. Your explanation of the D1 wagon smells like you had this planned to me.

If I was scum on a wagon, there is no way I would have killed off the townies if I were on the wagon, it would be self incriminating should town decide to lynch from that pool and there were few people remaining that hadn't flipped town. I don't think it would be a good strategy, UNLESS I wanted to use it as a "stronger tell" argument to get a townie lynched. You are so sure that this is fact, that you have it almost 100% guaranteed. So, if I am not scum, then likewise

you

must be scum. Again, I think that after absta was lynched, you saw an opportunity to kill Robo, thereby giving you this final argument to present in LYLO.

The fact that Robo was the last kill, being the third to last person on the shos wagon, which left only two people on the wagon, and then argument was presented by one of the two on the wagon that could incriminate the other by lying about his alignment suggests to me that you are indeed correct that almost 100% guaranteed scum was on the wagon and you are him.

---------------------------------------------------------------

My second scum read is on Shamrock.

At the beginning of the game, I had noted his play as seeming calculated and cautious. His Day 2 play was lack-luster as well, with a few arguments to try and throw doubt into Mala's claim, and then asking for a hammer, and discrediting absta's claim.

I am going to guess a KMD/Shamrock scum team, however KMD is for sure scum.

[Nexus]

"Caveman glasses off. Cool voice, by the way. Doh ray me and all that."

Votecount 3.1:

Not voting (5): Shamrock, ProHawk, ChaosOmega, kmd4390, Malakittens

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch. Deadline is in 10 days, at 8am GMT on the 27th October 2012.

[Kmd4390]

Prohawk, do you realize how much of a stretch that is. That as scum, i'd kill robo JUST to point out the day 1 wagon that I was also on? It would be a guarantee that you would come after me, which you have.

[ProHawk]

Does anyone else feel like its a stretch? I don't.

[Kmd4390]

I'd be intentionally implicating myself.

Look at it this way. Under the basis that all Day 1 lynches include scum, killing someone off the wagon makes it 33% for each of you, robo, and myself. Once robo is dead, it's 50/50.

So either scum wasn't aware that the lynch would come up today in this context or this is a weird ass game where the entire Day 1 lynching wagon was town and they are trying to set one or both of us up.

I personally think you and your scumbuddy didn't think to look at the wagon and killed robo out of fear that he'd lead the town to a lynch on scum. And now that I look back at robo's ISO at the end of Day 2, I'm pretty sure he'd have come after you and/or chaos. So if a robo kill was an attempt to set you up, it's a pretty piss poor attempt because they could have just left robo alive and let him come after you.