NY 160: Terrible Melodrama Mafia (Game Over)


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Post Post #950 (ISO) » Fri Jan 04, 2013 12:08 am

Post by RedCoyote »

It's very possible that a number of things could've happened yesterday. 4nx didn't necessarily visit anyone. Additionally, he could've visited someone he already knew of to be safe and been shot normally. I was also under the impression that there was an odd-night Vig, but it's still possible there's something like a three-shot Vig, although unlikely. The odds on favorite right now is that there is an SK and scum left. The fact remains that I am objectively the worst choice for lynch today given that, one, I have something that can be proven, and two, that the only clear thing we can take away from 4nx is that he definitely would not have visited me yesterday. No other player can make that claim.

---

GB 936 wrote:RC knew his only chance today was pushing against us and a fuckload of what he just said is literally blatant bullshit. In the middle of a family gathering though so I'll elaborate on it all in a little bit, probably an hour or two.


Before getting into any of the more meaty segments, I want to start by saying this sort of tone sounds very odd coming from Reg. I don't know if any of you have the same experience playing with him that I do, but I do know that he's pretty cool, collected, and level-headed. This sort of over-the-top outburst is generally not what I'd expect from him. So, I mean, right off the bat (and it's not every really right off the bat given that I've had these feelings through a lot of the game as he was trying to run up F-16 but I never really acted on them so there's no evidence I can point to for that), he's coming on too strong and too emotional. This is not what I'd expect of townReg.

GB 938 wrote:Also reading either us or F-16 or literally anything that's happened in this game should make it abundantly obvious that we're town.


You're not incapable of bussing, Reg. Nice try. That said, I'm not even sold you were bussing. My case doesn't rely on you being Mafia (like yours against me does). I think you could be either scum or an SK (although it's more likely you're the former... it doesn't make as much sense for you to shoot F-16 as SK, I think, but a case can be made).

As to your case. There's little I can address with regard to C+B and F-16. They had their interactions with me. I have no control over what they may or may not have said, just as GB has no control over Senjai's attempts at distancing from G+B that I pointed out in posts 163 and 256. So, I mean, that's definitely a wash.

As to my interactions with F-16, he was pretty middle-of-the-road with me. I think that much is apparent. GB is trying to make it all out like I was planning some elaborate scheme to keep F-16 at just the perfect distance, but the truth is never that complicated. I have no problems bussing my teammates, and I have no problems agreeing with my teammates in scum games. I don't need, nor do I try, to tiptoe around them. The truth is, I always had bigger suspects than him, and around the time that I was really committed to actually pushing for his lynch, he claimed a Cop. That claim seemed very reasonable to me, and I made it clear earlier that I expected this town would have more power than had already been revealed. I was reluctant to hammer based on that. I made my reservations of that known. If anything, I was worried GB was being a little "too sure" that F-16 was scum.

In any case, GB's case can be broken down into two things: what others have had to say about me (which Senjai/F-16 are just as guilty of), and that F-16 and I have had a massive conspiracy going on this whole game. I can assure you that this just isn't the case. I don't do scum half-assed, as GB would suggest here. I'm very deliberate and calculating, not wishy-washy. I have had trouble reading F-16 in previous games. I just finished a game where I was wrong when I called him scum very fervently. I'm still smarting from that game a bit. Right or wrong, it makes me more reluctant to push on F-16. This is Occum's Razor at work, folks. This is not a performance I would turn in with F-16 as my partner... but GB's arguments get worse from here.

GB 945 wrote:there was pretty obviously no intention of "drawing a night kill" but rather an attempt to save your own ass from a lynch by softing a PR.


That happened, sure, but this is a red herring. I have consistently hinted at having a power, but that was just my most blatant move. I also laid it out there about having additional investigative roles. I have always wanted myself associated with scum thinking that I had a power. I did a poor job apparently, but it doesn't make it any less true.

GB 945 wrote:His reaction at the end of the last day phase also seems to come from the perspective of someone who knows our alignment.


You're reading way too much into it for your own benefit. Again, I can point out examples in his ISO of him calling you, Emp, and N town. The only person that I think 4nx really supported strongly throughout the game was plan B. Hell, just reading his last two posts you can tell that 4nx was frustrated with you and the way you'd been going about the game. It definitely does not give the impression that he was certain of GB as town:

  • 4nx 892 wrote:really... now... ? if things don't go your way, you have a tantrum...

    4nx 894 wrote:seriously fuck that noise reg, i wanted to hammer nost a week ago and waited paitently because you asked. i even took the time to write out a fucking wall because you asked. and now you tell me to fuck off and say you're not going to play because we might've lynched wrong...


As frustrated as he was with you, he would've bit his tongue here. This is not the last impression a Weak Doctor wants to give off of one of their confirmeds.

---

N 948 wrote:I think VCA can be useful, but I'm not sure sure when we haven't actually lynched any mafia.


Fair enough. The fact of the matter is, between Emp and GB, those two are in compromising positions in our lynch wagons. Moreso than either you, me, or ArcAngel. I think we should lynch one of them.

N 949 wrote:I'm not sure why a serial killer would be so blatant. If he's sk, he could have very easily claimed vig; I mean, if he is, he's shot two mafia and at least one highly-suspected/null town.


As WIFOMy as it is, I really wouldn't. I actually think the SK was on the money doing what he did. I think the only reason he broke it up was because he must've read F-16 as town, which I surely did not (whereas Emp did).
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Post Post #951 (ISO) » Fri Jan 04, 2013 12:10 am

Post by RedCoyote »

EBWOP: and it's not
even
really right off the bat

I wonder if I have some mild dyslexia or something for all the times I mistype words when thinking too fast.
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Post Post #952 (ISO) » Fri Jan 04, 2013 3:33 am

Post by ArcAngel9 »

In post 946, Gentlemen Bastards wrote:
In post 943, ArcAngel9 wrote:Am here, what do you want to know?

We're massclaiming. Please claim your role in your next post.


What is yours and did others do it as well?
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Post Post #953 (ISO) » Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:44 am

Post by RedCoyote »

In post 952, ArcAngel9 wrote:
In post 946, Gentlemen Bastards wrote:
In post 943, ArcAngel9 wrote:Am here, what do you want to know?

We're massclaiming. Please claim your role in your next post.


What is yours and did others do it as well?


I just wish there was just some way we could effectively communicate with one another about stuff like this. If only there was some sort of, like, invention where players could gather and reveal these sort of things. Like if there was a public Internet forum with these individual comments called posts from each of the players... and between one another we could... read them?
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Post Post #954 (ISO) » Fri Jan 04, 2013 1:29 pm

Post by N »

ArcAngel, you are really slowing the game down. I just had a look through your iso and there is nothing of interest there at all. Are you playing stupid, or have you overcommitted to too many games?
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Post Post #955 (ISO) » Fri Jan 04, 2013 1:36 pm

Post by N »

In post 950, RedCoyote wrote:It's very possible that a number of things could've happened yesterday. 4nx didn't necessarily visit anyone. Additionally, he could've visited someone he already knew of to be safe and been shot normally. I was also under the impression that there was an odd-night Vig, but it's still possible there's something like a three-shot Vig, although unlikely. The odds on favorite right now is that there is an SK and scum left. The fact remains that I am objectively the worst choice for lynch today given that, one, I have something that can be proven, and two, that the only clear thing we can take away from 4nx is that he definitely would not have visited me yesterday. No other player can make that claim.

I actually hadn't thought about this. I was assuming that 4nx had visited GB several times.
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Post Post #956 (ISO) » Fri Jan 04, 2013 11:44 pm

Post by Empking »

In post 949, N wrote:
In post 947, Empking wrote:RC claimed BP; he's pretty clearly a SK.

I'm not sure why a serial killer would be so blatant. If he's sk, he could have very easily claimed vig; I mean, if he is, he's shot two mafia and at least one highly-suspected/null town.


The set up clearly made a Vig a fake claim. BP is more eh; sop is why a BP SK would claim that.
Plus, if you guys want to make a point, skip the walls, because everyone else in the game does as well. - Magister Ludi
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Post Post #957 (ISO) » Sat Jan 05, 2013 2:19 am

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

Will get to responding to from RC in two to three hours as well as leave you with whatever thoughts I have as it'll be my last post before leaving / having internet connection unavailable for my trip. If anyone has anything they want me specifically to answer you'll need to ask before then.
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Post Post #958 (ISO) » Sat Jan 05, 2013 4:55 am

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

Alright, I hate doing wall-quotes and find that nearly no one reads them when I do so I'll try and keep this short re; 1) It's impossible for 4nxiety to have visited anyone that's alive and had them been shot as they'd also be dead so the only two ways he'd have died would have been A) Hiding behind someone that was mafia or SK(?) or B) Not hiding at all and just being plain shot. Leaning towards B) being the case because I don't think he'd have taken an unnecessary risk after being pretty much the sole reason we lynched Nost yesterday. 2) You're not wrong that I'm being more emotional in this game than I am in most of my games, I try and hold it back a lot because I find that people listen and respect me more when I calm myself down and try and talk through things clearly but this game has been incredibly-fucking-annoying to put it blunt and given that it's my last game in a while I've decided that I don't particularly care if they think I'm an asshole, that said I have had some emotional games in the past (Flame Warriors especially where I told Amrun that she is a piece of shit and that she ruins games ect. ect.) and it comes out in me a here and there as town, as scum I'm very uh 'unconnected' or 'unattached' to the game I suppose is the word that I'm looking for.

3) You're tip-toeing around calling us mafia or SK - if you were town I'm pretty sure you'd actually be hunting
deeper
into everything and not just saying 'Well VCA has these people in bad positions, lets lynch both of them' but there's no deeper effort from you, instead you're just trying to slip by saying that us thinking ToonFighter and Piggy were mafia is a scum-tell which is something you were also doing; if you were town you'd realize that means that it'd be possible for town to suspect both of them therefore negating the effectiveness or usefulness of VCA but you're not, you're manipulating it to your agenda; see what Empire said about you doing it in his previous game where you were scum too. 4) His 'frustration' with us was because we told him he was a fucking moron essentially, and him responding to that and not 'keeping his tongue in his chin' just means he couldn't step back and realize how fucking dumb hammering Nost was there and instead retaliated.

And wow, that was much longer than I wanted it to be. Anyway while I'm pretty sure it's RC-Scum and Empking-SK and that the game will probably come down to if ArcAngel actually reads the thread or not I'll go over everything one more time, mostly because this'll be my last game for a long time and don't want to lose based on not looking bad and missing something. So I'll get through these one at a time. Then I'll probably take a deeper look at 4nxiety for solid breadcrumbs.

Spoiler: Possibilties
1. N is mafia
2. Arc is mafia
3. Empking is mafia
4. RC is mafia

5. N is SK
6. Arc is SK
7. Empking is SK
8. RC is SK


N's interactions with DoomYoshi in and is a point against him being mafia, though seem to remember Empire thinking this was a lot of a stronger point than I did. Don't think his interaction with C+B is likely to come from partners either in , , and , in fact that entire interaction is super super super super unlikely to come from partners and just from that alone I'm happy enough to rule him out as mafia completely not to mention that his 'What's an encrypter' comes across as very very very genuine in combined with the fact that his play here isn't reminiscent of his scum play
at all
means very very very happy to say that 1 is not the case.

Spoiler: Updated Possibilties
1. N is mafia

2. Arc is mafia
3. Empking is mafia
4. RC is mafia

5. N is SK
6. Arc is SK
7. Empking is SK
8. RC is SK
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Post Post #959 (ISO) » Sat Jan 05, 2013 5:46 am

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

God I tried skipping ahead and hunting for his crumbs in more detail first and jesus fucking christ he didn't make them clear or easy at all, or not anywhere near as well as he should have unless I'm blind. His comment D1 points towards him hiding behind DY which makes no sense given that he didn't die that night, only thing we've figured is that NC blocked him which doesn't match NC's scum-reads list either but wouldn't put it past him to essentially randomly roleblock and thus means that 4nxietys push on NC or suspicion towards him despite town-reading him late D1 is slightly understandable. As for later crumbs the only thing I can find from him is on Plan B, N and us and even those aren't as solid as they should be. We're thinking that if he did hide last night he agreed with us that RC-F-16 was the scum-team and decided that meant hiding elsewhere is safe and hide behind someone less likely to die ie. Empking explaining his death but really isn't anywhere near concrete.

It's nearing 4am though, so going to hit the hay and finish the rest of the possibilities tomorrow before I lose internet so it'll have to be fairly early on.
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Post Post #960 (ISO) » Sat Jan 05, 2013 4:54 pm

Post by N »

I'm really annoyed at ArcAngel right now. We have 5 days until deadline and she's pretty much refusing to join in the massclaim.

In post 956, Empking wrote:
In post 949, N wrote:
In post 947, Empking wrote:RC claimed BP; he's pretty clearly a SK.

I'm not sure why a serial killer would be so blatant. If he's sk, he could have very easily claimed vig; I mean, if he is, he's shot two mafia and at least one highly-suspected/null town.

The set up clearly made a Vig a fake claim. BP is more eh; sop is why a BP SK would claim that.

I'm not sure what "sop" is a typo for. "Cop" or "so" (or something else)?

In post 958, Gentlemen Bastards wrote:
Spoiler: Updated Possibilties
1. N is mafia

2. Arc is mafia
3. Empking is mafia
4. RC is mafia

5. N is SK
6. Arc is SK
7. Empking is SK
8. RC is SK

I really hope you're planning on continuing with this. If your whole plan with that wall was to say you don't think I'm scum, which you've already said multiple times, I'd start to suspect you're stalling.
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Post Post #961 (ISO) » Sat Jan 05, 2013 10:07 pm

Post by Empking »

In post 960, N wrote:I'm really annoyed at ArcAngel right now. We have 5 days until deadline and she's pretty much refusing to join in the massclaim.

In post 956, Empking wrote:
In post 949, N wrote:
In post 947, Empking wrote:RC claimed BP; he's pretty clearly a SK.

I'm not sure why a serial killer would be so blatant. If he's sk, he could have very easily claimed vig; I mean, if he is, he's shot two mafia and at least one highly-suspected/null town.

The set up clearly made a Vig a fake claim. BP is more eh; sop is why a BP SK would claim that.

I'm not sure what "sop" is a typo for. "Cop" or "so" (or something else)?


so (which would probably be better)
Plus, if you guys want to make a point, skip the walls, because everyone else in the game does as well. - Magister Ludi
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Post Post #962 (ISO) » Sun Jan 06, 2013 3:49 am

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

I'm drunk as a skunk (that's the saying right????) been stuck at a 22nd celebration of mine all day forced to drink. Going to see if I can get through another one or two people before morning (Found a way to steal neighbors internet) but might fall asleep during in which case will post whatever is left tomorrow when I wake up.
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Post Post #963 (ISO) » Sun Jan 06, 2013 9:30 am

Post by DeasVail »

Vote Count 5.01


Not Voting: N, Empking, ArcAngel9, RedCoyote, Gentlemen Bastards

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline


(expired on 2013-01-11 04:00:00)
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Post Post #964 (ISO) » Sun Jan 06, 2013 2:48 pm

Post by N »

In post 1, DeasVail wrote:19) If someone accumulates 3 prods over the course of the game and I feel they are not active enough, they will be replaced.

How many prods has ArcAngel had?
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Post Post #965 (ISO) » Sun Jan 06, 2013 10:42 pm

Post by DeasVail »

In post 964, N wrote:How many prods has ArcAngel had?

One.
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Post Post #966 (ISO) » Mon Jan 07, 2013 1:58 am

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

Spoiler: Updated Possibilties
1. N is mafia

2. Arc is mafia
3. Empking is mafia - Possible.
4. RC is mafia

5. N is SK
6. Arc is SK
7. Empking is SK - Possible.
8. RC is SK


Looking at Empking, he never really mentions F-16, he sticks him in his initial reads list under town with a whole lot of other people but never really comments on anything that he or his predecessor did. F-16s has a very fence-sitty read on Empking, the "No idea why Empking has JacobSavage as very town. I still doubt Emp-scum would so blatantly buddy his buddy - but then again, that may be what he wants us to think. And he votes obvtown Senjai - yeah, I am not liking Empking. Could be a chainsaw defense." but doesn't stick him in his scum-reads pile at the end of the post. Empkings reaction to our cases saying that he thinks it's just bad play rather than scummy play in and then ignoring us stating that F-16 isn't an incompetent player looks really bad, he kind of tries to avoid the situation as much as possible. Empkings pushing of the Nost lynch at a time when F-16 was in danger also comes across as really bad. His spiel of lynching Nost will clear F-16 and using that as an excuse not to do more really doesn't make all that much sense nor is the lack of reaction to Nost flipping town and F-16 flipping scum. Really interaction wise don't see anything that points against him being mafia at all. Only issues I'm having is that I still find his 'really thea?' comment to be a town-tell but the fact that he's not a vig like we've been thinking he was all game really kills a lot of the town-read we had on him. Killing two birds in one stone; We can see him as SK shooting DY after Piggy flipped town given his initial reads list and we can see him shooting UT (We're fairly sure that scum shot Jacob there) given that he was suspecting him all game and pushing on him, not so sure about the F-16 shot, only thing we can think of is that he felt that he HAD to hit scum and was secretly harbouring a scum-read on him but pushing a mslynch, gets a bit foggy there but overall think he fits as both scum and SK so both 3 and 7 work.
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Post Post #967 (ISO) » Mon Jan 07, 2013 2:02 am

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

Spoiler: Updated Possibilties
1. N is mafia

2. Arc is mafia
3. Empking is mafia - Possible.
4. RC is mafia

5. N is SK

6. Arc is SK
7. Empking is SK - Possible.
8. RC is SK


This'll be short because we're fairly sure it's not the case but N as SK barely works. We don't see anything in DYs ISO that points towards him being a threat towards N nor is there any hint of suspicion towards DY from N so him shooting DY N1 over pretty much the whole room doesn't make much sense. I think the N1 shot was the SK attempting to set up a vig claim, one they realized they couldn't maintain at this point which requires them to show suspicion towards the player they shot. Also don't see him shooting UT and keeping us alive this long given that we're probably both decently good at reading him so really happy to rule this one out.

Going to take a break and then look at Arc.
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Post Post #968 (ISO) » Mon Jan 07, 2013 2:29 am

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

Spoiler: Updated Possibilties
1. N is mafia

2. Arc is mafia

3. Empking is mafia - Possible.
4. RC is mafia

5. N is SK

6. Arc is SK - Possible.
7. Empking is SK - Possible.
8. RC is SK


Truthfully Plan Bs interactions with F+16 are really bad - specifically the lack of commenting on C+B and the reasoning behind his town-read on F+16 being "He has different reads and opinions than others and that's a town-tell" in when 1) Stating different opinions isn't a logical town-tell at all and 2) He wasn't stating different opinions, a lot of people stating a FoS on Jacob at the time, he was just pushing a mslynch and given that Plan B read Jacob as town F-16s push on him being a town-tell is nonsensical. His "F-16s hammer on Toon was a town move" in is something else that I don't understand at all. That said Empire pretty much told me I'm an idiot for even considering that we have the read wrong here (In much nicer words) and says that , and never come from partners in a million years and I agree with him so while Plan Bs interaction with F-16 is incredibly bad his interaction with DY rules him out of being mafia.

Moving onto the other front I can see being him setting up a vig claim shot on shooting DY so that works. Given his read on UT I can also very very very much see him shooting him and I can see Arc random shooting honestly so F-16 dying there from her is plausible. I also think that Plan Bs SK hunting early game in was weird and can see him doing that sort of reasoning for a FoS as a SK and explains Arcs lurking too.

Will get to RC in an hour.
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Post Post #969 (ISO) » Mon Jan 07, 2013 2:38 am

Post by N »

I think, if you're sure that there's a serial killer, that it's most likely to be ArcAngel. Nothing about her play (because she hasn't really done anything), but Plan B said quite a few things about 3rd parties and second scum teams.
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Post Post #970 (ISO) » Mon Jan 07, 2013 2:49 am

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

Well given that there's no vig claim and we've gone through everyone I'd say there has to be a SK.

And yeah, not sure why we ruled out Arc as a SK today or never really considered it until now, tried messaging Empire asking him if I'm missing or forgetting something but haven't got a response from him, he's probably asleep. That said I can see Empking SK too.
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Post Post #971 (ISO) » Mon Jan 07, 2013 3:17 am

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

Spoiler: Updated Possibilties
1. N is mafia

2. Arc is mafia

3. Empking is mafia - Possible.
4. RC is mafia - Possible.

5. N is SK

6. Arc is SK - Possible.
7. Empking is SK - Possible.
8. RC is SK


We've already gone into RC-Mafia and think it's quite likely so won't waste time going over that again but will rather focus on whether RC-SK is possible. From what we know of him (Which is actually quite a lot) he likes removing threats to him or to the game ie. Shooting stronger players or players that suspect him and don't see [DY/UT] matching that at all. Also don't see anything of this that looks like an attempt at vig crumbing to explain a SK nk of DY make sense coming from him.

So end of the day only people I can see being scum are Empking and RC and think RC is much more likely than Empking and the only people I can see being SK is ArcAngel and Empking and which one is more likely I'd have said Empking before but reading back through Plan B I'm honestly not sure and if forced to make a decision right now I'd probably say that Arc is slightly more likely but really really want to talk to Empire before I leave in like 8 hours, actually less.

But summarizing I'd say from most likely to least likely:

RC-Scum, Arc-SK
RC-Scum, Empking-SK
Empking-Scum, Arc-SK
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Post Post #972 (ISO) » Mon Jan 07, 2013 3:17 am

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

But serious last time that if you have anything you want me to look into or any questions for me it needs to be ASAP.
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Post Post #973 (ISO) » Mon Jan 07, 2013 3:55 am

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

Also we can very very very very much see Nero having RBed Plan B N2 which explains the lack of second kill there so yeah, Arc-SK is looking likely.
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Post Post #974 (ISO) » Mon Jan 07, 2013 4:00 am

Post by Gentlemen Bastards »

In post 504, Nero Cain wrote:Vote: PLANB

No town SK hunts like he’s doing.

This is NC's last vote and one of his last posts on D2, on N2 there's only one death. It's very very very likely that he Rb'ed Plan B with him being SK thus 1 death.

And talking with Empire at the moment he's agreeing so it's RC-scum and Arc-sk more than likely, happy with either lynch.
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