Mafiascum.net

Anyone can use a cop, not so with vig.

In post 91, callforjudgement wrote:Probably the best option (if there's known to be a vig but not who it is) is simply to vote for two players to lynch every day, then lynch one and vig the other. This makes the game effectively double day, and that's widely considered a townisded mechanic.

So with this plan, a vig is the equivalent of a double day enabler. Hmmm... Too bad I have never seen a town agree to this. There is always someone who argues that that this removes accountability from the vig, making it more difficult to determine the vig's alignment. Or some other variant of "directing vig kills is bad".

i feel like that would harm the vig accuracy simply because it would lead to the vig getting manipulated by people's overall reads + the voice of the scum

In post 102, petapan wrote:i feel like that would harm the vig accuracy simply because it would lead to the vig getting manipulated by people's overall reads + the voice of the scum

So double day is anti-town?

In post 96, Yosarian2 wrote:

In post 95, UberNinja wrote:

In post 56, Yosarian2 wrote:

In post 52, UberNinja wrote:
Objectively speaking, they both do about the same amount of damage to scum,

if both are played somewhat competently

, yet not perfectly optimally.

...

You do realize that a cop with 3 innocent investigations in a mini-game=automatic town win, and a vig with 3 tonwie kills=almost automatic town loss, right?

You do realize you forgot to read and respond to the entire sentence, right? (Hint: Three straight town vig targets is not somewhat competently.)

Next time, read/think before you post, Y2.

Um, I do think and read, thank you very much.

Alright, if you say so.

In post 96, Yosarian2 wrote:Are you a competent townie? Has there ever been a game when you voted for town 3 times in a row? I bet there has been.

If you can find an instance of that, I'll give you mad props. I lynch scum more often than town, and there's not many times I've lynched 3 scum in a row. I can count them on one hand. So if you find three town lynches in a row where I am on the wagon, I will be pretty shocked.

My games are in my sig.

In post 96, Yosarian2 wrote: I know I have, I'm sure any townie has. There just aren't that many scum; most of the time, if you try to target a scum, you'll target a townie. That's just how the game works, "competent" or not.

Again, if you say so. You have just lost the ability (if you ever had it) to think critically and make the plays that help town out in that X factor way. You're a logician, and if scum can be logical, they can evade your nose until kingdom come. Mix it up a little bit, Yos.

In post 96, Yosarian2 wrote:Realistically, a competent townie is one who votes for scum somewhere between 33% and 50% of the time. At those odds, there are still going to be plenty of games where you shoot 2 or even 3 townies in a row, even if you know what you're doing.

My scum lynch rate is above 50%.

In post 96, Yosarian2 wrote:And vig shots are usually less accurate then votes, in my experience, at least for night vigs.

My vig ratio is 100% scum actually.

In post 96, Yosarian2 wrote:

Oh, I see Hoopla has already poked a hole in your brilliant plan of not claiming as a Cop in a Mini until Day 4.

Earlier I was talking about 2 investigations, which is pretty normal. A cop who waits until day 3 to claim (unless he's about to get lynched, or unless his n1 innocent is about to get lynched, or unless he catches a scum) will usually manage it; scum only get 2 kills by then, and they have 11 townies to pick from. Unless the cop drops cop tells, he has less then a 20% chance of getting nightkilled before day 3. (Of course, that's assuming that there's just one killing group. If there's also a vig, the cop might have to claim earlier, because the vig basically doubles the odds of the cop getting shot by night 3 if he doesn't claim.)

Alright, Day 3 then. This is still you throwing numbers at the wall and using logic again in hopes that the scum don't hit anywhere better than random. But let's forget about that convenient little detail for the sake of de-escalating an argument which we're both looking at through very different pairs of spectacles.

In post 96, Yosarian2 wrote:I'm not saying that's always the best option, but it certainly is a reasonable one. And if you do it, town is in great shape.

Yes, it's mostly reasonable to wait to claim until Day 3 in a mini game. It's just a lot safer to claim Day 2, and hope that a protective role can give you at least one more shot to make your plays. Two guaranteed inspection results for town is a lot better than three wasted ones. And it's got a chance of being even more, if the doc is unknown and the cop gets to investigate freely for at least another night (or perhaps even two).

And yes, at that point, it really does break the game. Follow the cop is very strong, but it's only strong if the cop's alive. Capiche?

Actually, I just looked it up in my personal stats. I have only lynched 3 town in a game twice, and in one of those games I also lynched three scum. In neither of the games did I lynch three of them in a row, there were always scum in between. Turns out I've only ever lynched 3 town in a row as scum... and that's multiple times, obviously.

In post 100, Axxle wrote:Anyone can use a cop, not so with vig.

Said the hero vig of Scummer of Love Invitational.

In post 103, LlamaFluff wrote:So double day is anti-town?

Well no. Not inherently given that lynching is inherently the strength of whatever faction Dayplays better.

The better question is - is DoubleDay Pro-Town? I don't think there is any statistical indication (aka enough DoubleDay games to draw a conclusion) to say so. Thus using a Vig as a 'second' lynch is only a good idea under the correct circumstances.

In post 106, UberNinja wrote:

In post 100, Axxle wrote:Anyone can use a cop, not so with vig.

Said the hero vig of Scummer of Love Invitational.

^ that

Not "lynched" 3 townies in a row as town, UN. Voted 3 townies in a row as town. The difference being that you don't actually control the lynch, so that's not a good analogy.

In post 103, LlamaFluff wrote:

In post 102, petapan wrote:i feel like that would harm the vig accuracy simply because it would lead to the vig getting manipulated by people's overall reads + the voice of the scum

So double day is anti-town?

That's not even remotely implied. You could say he thinks a lynch is less accurate than a vig, but that'd not make lynching anti town. So...uh yeah?

In post 110, Faraday wrote:

In post 103, LlamaFluff wrote:

In post 102, petapan wrote:i feel like that would harm the vig accuracy simply because it would lead to the vig getting manipulated by people's overall reads + the voice of the scum

So double day is anti-town?

That's not even remotely implied. You could say he thinks a lynch is less accurate than a vig, but that'd not make lynching anti town. So...uh yeah?

Well if the arguement is that a vig shouldnt let their shot be concensus... concensus is basically a lynch creating a game like

You can lynch A and B, both flips occur at once (which might make for an interesting game really).

Given the INaccuracy of vigs, lynches are more accurate in normals. Maybe somehow this shifted recently, but I dont think it has.

t/dr anyyyything.

Policy Lynch Vig Shot. Period.

Oh, by the way UN, I knew I wasn't crazy.

Yosarian2 wrote:
Are you a competent townie? Has there ever been a game when you voted for town 3 times in a row? I bet there has been.

The very first game I played with you, mini 1372, you voted for three townies in a row (Kanye, then Parama, then me, then back to kanye.) So yes, you have voted 3 townies in a row as town.

I don't know why you're trying to make this theory discussion into something personal anyway.

In post 103, LlamaFluff wrote:

In post 102, petapan wrote:i feel like that would harm the vig accuracy simply because it would lead to the vig getting manipulated by people's overall reads + the voice of the scum

So double day is anti-town?

cute logical fallacy

i just think vig-voting falls flat and doesn't produce the same kind of pressure that an actual lynch does, it also can't be informed by the flip from the lynch which is a pretty huge thing but this is just ~feelings~ i certainly can't back it up with anything

if you have ever killed town in a game when you were also town, then you were wrong and will continue to be wrong always and should therefore never try again because you will always fail. that's how things work.

if I'm a vig I'd self vig so I don't end up voting confirmed town in lylo

In post 46, LlamaFluff wrote:I found some of the old data, think this was the first 100 or so MN games after we started checking them, it needs an update which I will do eventually. A good vig may help the town, but I think more often then not the vig ends up doing more harm than good.

N1 vigs Shoot Scum 12.5% of time
N1 random vig is 25.9%

N2 vigs shoot scum 0% of time
N2 random vig is 27.9%

N3 vig shoots scum 0% of time
N3 random vig is 16.7% of time

Total vig hits scum 7.1% of time
At random it should be 26.2% of time

Do we have access to the actual underlying data here?

Vig shoot be shooting in pretty much any situation as it will often give the town more town controlled kills, and breaks even on that aspect at worst.

I'd like to see teaching on vig play that stresses more of shooting a major bandwagon as a vig when we're telling people with limited scumhunting ability how to play the role. At least in that situation a flip of a major wagon gives you more information than one where a weak player goes with their gut.

Why should a player be punished for using the role that he has been given? Why should the mod modkill them for doing something just because they don't agree with it? A mod should stay unbiased in the game.

In post 118, Zachrulez wrote:
I'd like to see teaching on vig play that stresses more of shooting a major bandwagon as a vig when we're telling people with limited scumhunting ability how to play the role. At least in that situation a flip of a major wagon gives you more information than one where a weak player goes with their gut.

Problem is the same as with so many things in Mafia: people don't often realize they have "limited scumhunting ability".

dunning-kruger effect etc etc

Damnit peta, that's like three posts of yours in the last 48 hours I've agreed with.

Nothing wrong with agreeing with petapan. He's often right.

In post 109, Yosarian2 wrote:Not "lynched" 3 townies in a row as town, UN. Voted 3 townies in a row as town. The difference being that you don't actually control the lynch, so that's not a good analogy.

Psh, I usually vote just about everyone in the game, whether in RVS or for reactions, so statistically speaking it's a near impossibility that I haven't voted 3 townies in a row at some point in just about . What's your actual point again? I'm sorry, it's gotten completely lost in the folds of your eagerness to prove a point that never really made sense to begin with.

The point is that if you think a vig is going to be right 100% of the time in the long run you don't actually understand how mafia works.