NY 164: Maniacal Street Mafia (Anticlimatically finished.)

[penguin_alien]

^ I can't tell if you want my input on why I unvoted Nacho or not; if so let me know, otherwise I'll leave you to it. I think I've covered it in this thread earlier, but it might be buried in a wall, not sure.

I would enjoy you saying it again.

And so if I were in the business of pleasing scum, I would.

[mastin2]

Yeah, you don't exactly need fancy votecounts anymore. Might do it for the heck of it later, but for the time being, am out of time, sooooo...

Nachomamma8 - 1 (penguin_alien)
penguin_alien - 1 (Nachomamma8)

Deadline's Tuesday, November 19th.

This is in five days.

[Nachomamma8]

^ I can't tell if you want my input on why I unvoted Nacho or not; if so let me know, otherwise I'll leave you to it. I think I've covered it in this thread earlier, but it might be buried in a wall, not sure.

I would enjoy you saying it again.

And so if I were in the business of pleasing scum, I would.

That's just rude

[PeregrineV]

Peregrine, what do you think of what we've brought up before?

I haven't looked over it closely.

do you think the answers are already out there, or are better gotten from each of you?

[Nachomamma8]

The reasons that I find most convincing are already out there. We usually look for different things, though, so it's likely that questioning will help a lot.

[penguin_alien]

Depends what aspects you're not sure of. I would be surprised if Nacho's BP, given that Oversoul was, and none of the town-red-blue PRs have been repeats in the flips.

[mastin2]

With

3

alive,

2

is a (no-)lynch.

Deadline for Day Nine is Tuesday, November 19th, at 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-11-19 12:30:00).

A reminder.

If deadline hits with no majority, Nachomamma8 is lynched.

[Nachomamma8]

PEREGRINE

[mastin2]

With

3

alive,

2

is a (no-)lynch.

Deadline for Day Nine is Tuesday, November 19th, at 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-11-19 12:30:00).

A reminder.

If deadline hits with no majority, Nachomamma8 is lynched.

Thanks to me not compensating for the upcoming site downtime, I'm pushing the deadline to Wednesday, November 20th, at the same time.

[PeregrineV]

Ok sounds good.

[PeregrineV]

PEREGRINE

Yes?

I know, I'm deciding.

The CTD lynch is about the only thing in your favor if I buy into the whole "One blue mafia" left, since I think you are red.

Penguin looks to be blue mafia if you follow the posts from Bulba in 6518.

Anyone want to address those posts by Bulba?

[penguin_alien]

In those posts he was attacking me because I thought that ThAd's vig shot on him failed due to Seanald protecting him (which at this point I assume was correct; the whole JK theory is bunk), which made him red scum. He couldn't paint me as red after the Seanald lynch, so he tried to say I was blue. He kept it up, even though if we're assuming it was anything more than a read of convenience, and even if not, I'm guessing he blocked me N5. Since it had no effect, but he couldn't explain that, he kept up the bogus suspicion of me because I wouldn't dismiss the 'Seanald protected you' theory.

[PeregrineV]

In those posts he was attacking me because I thought that ThAd's vig shot on him failed due to Seanald protecting him (which at this point I assume was correct; the whole JK theory is bunk), which made him red scum. He couldn't paint me as red after the Seanald lynch, so he tried to say I was blue. He kept it up, even though if we're assuming it was anything more than a read of convenience, and even if not, I'm guessing he blocked me N5. Since it had no effect, but he couldn't explain that, he kept up the bogus suspicion of me because I wouldn't dismiss the 'Seanald protected you' theory.

I mean these. Note Bulba's flip as

RedScum Roleblocker

the night following a single Desp kill (5993):

ffullisade: AK, Nacho, and Bulbazak haven't even checked in yet. Which actually makes me suspicious of that whole group, as I'd expect scum to want to see the lay of the land before picking a line of attack.

I'm going through ISOs, like I always do during Mylo/Lylo.

My reread of yours + Baby Spice's ISO confirms my blue scum read.

ffullisade, I know I sound like a broken record, but PLEASE explain to me how, knowing that ThAd's shot on Bulbazak was absorbed by protection, only a completely inept JK would use a night action to hinder a vig proving himself, and red scum likely had the only other protective role, Bulbazak isn't scum. I get that people say KK had a town read on Bulbazak, but keep in mind that was also before Slandaar's flip made Bulbazak the counterwagon to a town lynch. Flips -> information -> changed reads overnight.

KK argued with me a lot after my plan to have CTD protected. Then there was that whole deal with the Slandaar wagon that happened at the end of the day. I'm actually not that surprised that KK JK'd me.

ffullisade, you said you're nervous about PV. Based on stuff from last page, I can see a scenario where he's red scum, but it's weak. I'm also not thinking that the push to lynch him two days ago fits in with that theory very well.

PV is conf. town! Why are you even softly suggesting PV-scum? He's not being lynched. Period.

Going to sleep, and then back to ISOs.

I'm not sure if this is for everyone or just AK, but I'm going to answer anyway.

Who is the blue scum?

PA

Who is the red scum?

I'm not sure, which is why I'm going through ISOs. I'm currently 1/3 of the way through Nacho's, after which I'll be going through B&B/Ffullisade (5 pages...).

You are legit red scum hunting. Not blue scum. Red.

And? I've already found blue scum. The next logical step is to try to find red. It just turns out that it's more difficult.

My priority today is red scum. If you were town, you would be straight up red scum hunting

I thought your problem with me was that I was "legit red scum hunting". But then you say that your priority today is finding red scum and that I should be red scum hunting if town, which is why you are finding me scummy. So why am I scum again?

not going after someone who is likely either red or town and calling them blue.

I think PA is blue scum

. Do you think that she's red or town, and if so, why?

Also, if you think I'm scum, what team am I on?

[penguin_alien]

Either the scum doubled up on targets and he decided to take advantage of it or he blocked blue scum Nacho after blocking me N5 did nothing and figured he'd eke a mislynch out of it. Or he deliberately no-killed to decide who to run up depending on what the day brought, as he could imply that he'd roleblocked anyone.

Bottom line, if he legit thought I was blue scum he would have blocked me N5. There's no way a red scum team of Doctor-RB-Tracker thought they were up against Goon-Goon-Ninja, so even if we town couldn't be sure if CTD's lynch ended the blue team, red scum would have suspected that wasn't the case. Yes, it might have appeared that blue scum was totally eliminated that way, but he's still better off verifying blue scum's identity sooner rather than later.

There's no motive for him to reverse his 'read' when his own roleblock proved him wrong, especially since when Day Six opens with three kills the night before, everyone would assume there's likely one blue scum left; fake blue scum-hunting to eliminate that NK is a perfectly reasonable pastime for red scum who wants to avoid scrutiny.

On the other hand, he had zero motive to find blue scum

accurately

, since eliminating blue scum meant the heat would turn up on red scum.

[PeregrineV]

Either the scum doubled up on targets and he decided to take advantage of it or he blocked blue scum Nacho after blocking me N5 did nothing and figured he'd eke a mislynch out of it. Or he deliberately no-killed to decide who to run up depending on what the day brought, as he could imply that he'd roleblocked anyone.

Bottom line, if he legit thought I was blue scum he would have blocked me N5. There's no way a red scum team of Doctor-RB-Tracker thought they were up against Goon-Goon-Ninja, so even if we town couldn't be sure if CTD's lynch ended the blue team, red scum would have suspected that wasn't the case. Yes, it might have appeared that blue scum was totally eliminated that way, but he's still better off verifying blue scum's identity sooner rather than later.

There's no motive for him to reverse his 'read' when his own roleblock proved him wrong, especially since when Day Six opens with three kills the night before, everyone would assume there's likely one blue scum left; fake blue scum-hunting to eliminate that NK is a perfectly reasonable pastime for red scum who wants to avoid scrutiny.

On the other hand, he had zero motive to find blue scum

accurately

, since eliminating blue scum meant the heat would turn up on red scum.

I'm going to track down this logic chain, but I will be using the following:
1) I don't think Bulba would ever "look for red scum" no matter what he says. He was searching for blue, so for the most part I will ignore his arguments of color designation.
I will accept arguments of color designation only in instances of bussing.

2) At a glance, I am thinking he blocked you night6. Walk/talk me through player-by-player, point-by-point about why he would block you night5, and how it's relevant to this current thoguuht of him blockig you night6.
For my part, I will look at his day6 play to see if his play is similar to his day7 attitude.

So any posts that can support your claim would help.

[penguin_alien]

Look back further; he was calling me scum on Day Five. It got more intense when I concluded that ThAd's vig shot was stopped by a protect one night and a roleblock the next, implying that he'd been protected before Seanald's flip.

If he ever actually thought I was scum, he would have blocked me N5. Red scum had to have figured there was only one blue scum left after CTD died. That meant the last man standing had to do the kill. Blocking him blocked the kill. A successful block paralyses the blue scum killing power. Cephrir and Bulba sure didn't use it on the vig. (Sorry if that's overly 'Dick and Jane' but it's been a rough Monday)

(I'm assuming from this point on that it was a three-man red team; anything else would make you red, and I just can't swallow that)

Once Cephrir died N5, Bulba was solo, but he could hope that town didn't know that. As such, he could paint blue scum hunting as more important to eliminate the NK from that team. But once he accurately helped the town lynch blue scum, they'd turn on him. So, throw other people on the gallows. When we lynched PV he probably didn't know who blue was, since roleblocking me had no effect on the NKs. Whether he figured it out N6 or not, continuing to push me, the professed bleu scum read, gave him more breathing room.

PV, if I were blue scum blocked N6, why would I waver in the slightest from his wagon? My own logic had the roleblocker as red scum, and I was pushing him as red scum from D5 on. Mislynching there would have screwed me completely.

Short on time and not on my PC ATM; if you can't find what I'm referencing here directly or in my discussions with Nacho today I'll pull quotes late tonight.

[penguin_alien]

Reading back through Bulba's ISO shows that his arguments for HD being scum are pretty weak, and he mostly suggests that HD is red scum, best summarized here:

@Bulba-

Run me down a scenario of blue and red remaining, IYO, if there are 2 teams of 3.

Then repeat for 2 teams of 4.

2 teams of 3:

Blue - CTD
Red - One of HD and Baezu. I originally thought that they were scumpartners, but HD's recent attacks on Baezu has started to make me doubt that. If you put a gun to my head, I might pick AK.

2 teams of 4:

Blue - CTD and PA. She appeared to soft defend Thez on d2, and that stuck out for me at the time and made me think that she could possibly be blue. The only other thing that sticks out scum-wise for me is BS's crappy Nacho case d1, which seemed awfully stretched to me. PA has given me more of a town vibe recently, though, so I may be way off here. Outside chance that HD might be blue scum for similar, albeit more subtle, reasons.

Red - One of HD/Baezu, as explained above. After that, I don't know. Maybe AK. Maybe Ffullisade. Maybe Cephrir. We're really getting into the realm of my townreads here, so I can't really give a solid answer. Really, I'd probably see what one of HD/Baezu flipped and reevaluate from there. To be honest, before I'd give another red scum read, I'd need to go through ISOs side by side with Seanald's. There's also still the chance that both HD and Baezu are red scum, which means that I'm not wrong about my townreads, but I doubt it.

To be honest, I'd rather lynch CTD-scum, get the information from the flip and the NK, and then go from there.

Is there a point to these questions? Because they seem strange, and they're making me very uncomfortable.

Yet the next day he's hopping on board the HD wagon even though everyone's trying to lynch blue scum. Given the events of D5, if we can assume anything he said was remotely reflecting his opinions, post-CTD lynch he'd have expected me to be blue scum and blocked me, full stop. So D6 he should know that I'm not blue scum. His own logic had his case on HD as more strongly red scum. But we get:

Vote Human Destroyer

I think PA is likely to be blue scum due to her soft defending Thez d2 and for BS's horribly stretched case on d1. I still don't know what to make of AK. Can somebody explain why PV might be scum?

And after I call him out on it, he does switch his vote. But it's obvious he would have preferred to hold onto my mislynch, since he could ride Nacho's mislynch push on HD otherwise for the day and hold onto me for the next day, as he attempted to do.

With 20/20 hindsight, we know that HD was a scummy mislynch. Bulbazak wouldn't have blocked him, as he knew he wasn't red, and most of his case on him was based on him being red. That leaves him blocking me N5, still to no effect.

Depending on how the NKs went down on N5, he either blocked Nacho N6 or counted on Nacho NKing Desperado and just no-killed to let things look like a kill was blocked and gambled on being able to push a mislynch (likely on me) off of it. Problem for him was that after his D5 talk, it made no sense for him to have blocked me N6 and not N5.

We're at 25 hours to deadline, and I'll be around intermittently if you want to hash this out more. But it's pretty clear to me, just based on Bulbazak flipping Roleblocker, I'm not blue scum or red scum, despite my less-than-stellar town play this game.

[Nachomamma8]

Depending on how the NKs went down on N5, he either blocked Nacho N6 or counted on Nacho NKing Desperado and just no-killed to let things look like a kill was blocked and gambled on being able to push a mislynch (likely on me) off of it. Problem for him was that after his D5 talk, it made no sense for him to have blocked me N6 and not N5.

The strongest reason you have for clearing yourself is that Bulbazak blocked you N5 because of the way he talked D5. But you also brought up that there's a possibility he no killed on N6 because he bet on me killing Desperado, which shows that there's a wealth of possibilities of what could have happened N5. He could have been pushing you as a mislynch because his scum pool was narrowed down to only a few players, then secretly blocked me during the night. He could have known you were blue scum but didn't block you because he didn't think you would kill him since he was a potential not-you lynch at that point and he needed numbers whittled down. Bulba's suspicion of you D5 doesn't clear you in any way; your logic is warped pretty badly to even reach that conclusion in the first place.

[penguin_alien]

I know I'm not scum, therefore the missing kill wasn't a result of Bulbazak blocking me. PV asked why the night results wouldn't indicate that Bulbazak blocked me and in doing so prevented a kill. Given his suspicions, if he blocked me it would have been N5 in all likelihood. It's possible he never blocked me too; I have no way of knowing. My previous post was addressing that question of PV's.

The simple answer is that he blocked you N6, but we don't know; you two could have overlapped on the NK or he could have no-killed.

[PeregrineV]

I think that if Bulba wanted to get rid of someone, he would shoot them first.

I saw his hard push on you day7. I don't recall a hard push on you day6.

[penguin_alien]

Look at #5839 quoted above, then go to his ISO and read what follows. And it wasn't a matter of getting rid of people, it was a question of keeping mislynches around.

[Nachomamma8]

Peregrine, you have 2 hours. Please don't let this go to a deadline lynch. Hammer penguin.

[Nachomamma8]

Fact: I make no fucking sense as blue scum. I can see where people got the idea that I was redscum, but I don't make sense as bluescum.
Fact: There is no possible power role that the final blue scum has to balance out the three power roles on red side. See this game for an example of uneven teams if you'd like that to help convince you. Hence, there is one scum left. It is a blue. It is penguin_alien.

[Nachomamma8]

With

3

alive,

2

is a (no-)lynch.

Deadline for Day Nine is Tuesday, November 19th, at 12:30 PM PST, which is in (expired on 2013-11-20 12:30:00).

A reminder.

If deadline hits with no majority, Nachomamma8 is lynched.

[Nachomamma8]

sorry, not 2 hours
1 hour
this game
this 6 month game
is going to end on a deadline lynch on obvious town and I can't fucking believe it