Open 561: Farmer's Market (Game Over)

[mathbandit]

Just to be clear, innoventvillager:

Are you saying you would prefer an interesting mechanic that gives Town an X% chance to win over a boring mechanic that gives Town a higher than X% chance to win?

[Robocopter87]

Havingfitz replaces Marcrell.
Formerfish replaces ashura525.

WELCOME THEM!

[Formerfish]

Blind posting. Will read later.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Hello fishy and fitz. Welcome to stupid setup speculation.

Math, are you 100% sure the other plan is optimal?

I think by this point we have to go with hayato's plan because we aren't finding scum atm. Also, unfailing fruit circle plan IS a subset of hayato's plan, so yeah.

Also, bulge just looks like scum to me.

VOTE: The Bulge

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Assuming you mean go with the list order plan but don't make it mandatory...

1) Scum can lie about giving fruit. Read the setup. You are not informed of how much fruit you received. Multiple people can give to the same player and the recipient won't be notified of it.

This is weird. When you look back, TSO and I both completely misunderstood hayato's plan. Bulge didn't initially then DID in his later post? What?

[mathbandit]

Hello fishy and fitz. Welcome to stupid setup speculation.

Math, are you 100% sure the other plan is optimal?

No, I'm not. But unless you can give me a second plan than guarantees a result better than an extra mislynch, then it's the best plan I've seen. I

am

100% sure that the other plan proposed (arrange an order of fruit-giving but don't make it mandatory) is significantly worse, though.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Also, TSO, I don't think aronis is scum. He's right, idiocy and scum-ness are not linked. It's not a ploy by him to make everyone overlook him because he's being dumb.

Could you give why you think he's scum if it's something else?

[havingfitz]

I think I prefer the" Everyone gives fruit option" but I'll look it over more later.

VOTE: Siveure

I'll comment more this evening.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Any reason to vote me?

[T S O]

Also, TSO, I don't think aronis is scum. He's right, idiocy and scum-ness are not linked. It's not a ploy by him to make everyone overlook him because he's being dumb.

Could you give why you think he's scum if it's something else?

Neither do I - I wanted to get out of the stage where we were all posting once a day with set-up spec and actually play.

Unvote

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

If you want to be playing the game where we find scum and lynch them, i've found scum with bulge, help me lynch him?

[Aronis]

If you want to be playing the game where we find scum and lynch them, i've found scum with bulge, help me lynch him?

Why are you so certain Bulge is scum?

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Because everything looks like it could have come from scum-bulge.

[The Bulge]

Assuming you mean go with the list order plan but don't make it mandatory...

1) Scum can lie about giving fruit. Read the setup. You are not informed of how much fruit you received. Multiple people can give to the same player and the recipient won't be notified of it.

This is weird. When you look back, TSO and I both completely misunderstood hayato's plan. Bulge didn't initially then DID in his later post? What?

I don't understand this... what are you trying to say? That I didn't understand at first, or that I did? Either way, how is this so strange?

Because everything looks like it could have come from scum-bulge.

Good reasoning A+

yea yea OMGUS whatever
VOTE: Siveure
I don't like how he's been posting lately and I'm pretty sure he's scum. More to come when I have time.

[T S O]

I really hate that vote.

[The Bulge]

I really hate that vote.

Nothing I didn't expect. Hence the "yea yea OMGUS whatever". But I'm not gonna let the possible threat of being targetted stop me from voting who I think is scum.

[T S O]

it's probably time to tell me why you think he's scum, then.

[The Bulge]

I don't have as much time right now as I would have liked. But if you insist. Gimme a sec to put it together.

[T S O]

Don't rush it - I want to be impressed.

[T S O]

I can wait, but I'd prefer quality not be compromised.

[The Bulge]

Spoiler: Part I - The Night Strategy

I know you guys are tired of talking about this so I'll be brief.

I still think doing the fruit-circle on two nights is the optimal strategy, we just gotta work out which nights.

Anyway, the best we can hope for is we prevent two night kills at night. That means we have to win in the day. Everyone post once that they're on board for targeting below them (i'm on aronis), then we shut up about it because it's taking up space needlessly.

I was thinking about this, and it's risky. And it's also a bit silly. I was focusing on getting an extra lynch and it's pretty much impossible.

Hayato, what about the information an extra lynch would give? What about the information we get from the people who would have died? "Information" is so nebulous it's not really worth it.

I think he actually believes his strategy is optimal. I really don't think he realizes our strategy is optimal and is trying to get us to do something suboptimal as scum. His proposal is completely alignment neutral.

I kinda see what hayato is planning.

But yeah, I say we just run it the other way. There aren't enough people who get it for us to not just get wiped out at night and screwed over.

Up to this point, Siveure has made it quite clear which plan he's more keen on using. Note that this plan is clearly much harder for scum to get around. I shouldn't have to explain why, but just in case, here we go. The original plan is simply
1) everyone passes fruit to a designated target (person below is easiest way to do this)
2) if there is a night-kill, lynch anyone who claims to have screwed up in order to keep the plan airtight. Zero tolerance.
Hayato's plan leaves the door waaaay open for scum to lie and exploit the flaws in the plan. Benefits are that (if played well) we get information over more nights, but this simply does not outweigh the advantage it could give scum.

I think by this point we have to go with hayato's plan because we aren't finding scum atm. Also, unfailing fruit circle plan IS a subset of hayato's plan, so yeah.

But wait! Suddenly, we should go with hayato's plan? All for the sake of not wasting time? But weren't more people on board with the original plan?

yes.

And doesn't hayato's plan benefit scum?

yes.

And doesn't this sudden switch of opinions seem terribly lazy?

it should.

What I strongly believe happened here is this. As scum, Siveure had no choice but to go along with the town's plans. When hayato posted an alternate plan, Siveure looked at it and realized the plan would be better... for him, at least. But he couldn't instantly jump to the new plan without raising suspicion against himself, so he stuck to the original plan and waited for an opportunity to "give up" and just go with hayato's. Convenient.

(

Note:

the original proposition of a plan that helped scum was the cause of my initial suspicion for hayato as well)

Spoiler: Part II - Case against The Bulge

(Hey that's me!)

Anyway looking at the people who jumped onto the wagon.

VOTE: the bulge

It starts here. Obviously. Doesn't bother me too much because ok, fair enough, wagons can be scummy. Still wondering what makes me scummier than the other two, though...

About my vote, I distrust everyone on your wagon. Votes for something that is obviously dependent on playstyle instead of alignment is horrible for town, and bulge is pushing you the most suspiciously.

Oh now I get it! I'm scum because... I followed through with my vote?

I'm not voting you to "further my plan", I'm voting you because I think you are scum. Where did this assumption come from? Your plan makes it easier for scum early-game, so I think you are scum. It's that simple. This is nothing but OMGUS.

I'm not pushing for his lynch, I'm pushing my plan.
Also, isn't voting for me based on only this also dependent on playstyle instead of alignment?

So you're voting without pushing for a lynch? Instead, you're pushing your plan? Why exactly aren't you trying to lynch him if you think he's scum?

But I thought I was scum for backing myself up? Now you want me to give more proof? Hm.
Also, there's nothing wrong with voting without explicitly pushing for a lynch, especially this early in the game.

Here's what points to you being mafia.

1) Your "playstyle" seems to be trying to keep us with no player information, which is indicative of scum. We lose out a lot by discussing how we use the fruit all day then having to compromise deadline lynch, and you seem to have 0 intention of talking about anything but the fruit.
2) You've decided he's scum to be lynched really fast.

I still stand by the fact that these are weak-ass reasons. Night actions are extremely important, and we hadn't decided on anything. Only scum would want strategy discussion to stop.

Bulge might be scum I'm just worried I could be confbiasing it because some of his stuff weirds me out.

Glad you acknowledge your reasons are weak. "Weird" is not a scumtell. It is, believe it or not, a playstyle issue. If I'm not mistaken

I'm not

, you strongly advocated against voting based on playstyle. And this is exactly what you're doing here.

Assuming you mean go with the list order plan but don't make it mandatory...

1) Scum can lie about giving fruit. Read the setup. You are not informed of how much fruit you received. Multiple people can give to the same player and the recipient won't be notified of it.

This is weird. When you look back, TSO and I both completely misunderstood hayato's plan. Bulge didn't initially then DID in his later post? What?

Still don't understand this at all. See my last post.

Also, bulge just looks like scum to me.

VOTE: The Bulge

lol

If you want to be playing the game where we find scum and lynch them, i've found scum with bulge, help me lynch him?

lol

Because everything looks like it could have come from scum-bulge.

lol

[Bins]

Bulge isn't scum and I'm 99% okay with the Siveure wagon. First, I wanna hear what havingfitz has to say.

(I also need to get on a computer so I can say shit).

[don_johnson]

hm. if 120 checks out fact wise, then I'd say its a good post. I hate sorting out walls though.

fitz: long time no see. what do you make of this nonsense and where do you sit on the fruit plans?

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Assuming you mean go with the list order plan but don't make it mandatory...

1) Scum can lie about giving fruit. Read the setup. You are not informed of how much fruit you received. Multiple people can give to the same player and the recipient won't be notified of it.

This is weird. When you look back, TSO and I both completely misunderstood hayato's plan. Bulge didn't initially then DID in his later post? What?

I don't understand this... what are you trying to say? That I didn't understand at first, or that I did? Either way, how is this so strange?

You understood his point at first, then your second post implies that you didn't. How does multiple fruit happen if we "go with the list order plan but don't make it mandatory?"

About playstyle versus alignment, there's 3 Sivs. Town-Siv, who got a town role pm. Scum-Siv, who got a scum role pm, and Null-Siv, who didn't get any role pm at all. Anything null-siv says has to be thrown out in regards to alignment. That's all my playstyle/alignment malarkey comes down to.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Alright, time to go at the case.

Um. Looking over this, apparently I think bulge is an absolute moron. And I'm also addressing this to him. Welp.

Big long spoilered case about me jumping suddenly to hayato's plan

#79 is me saying "The info from hayato's plan is better, but nobody besides us gets the plan so the information will go completely to waste if we do it because we'll die in the interim." Also #103 WAS fairly facetious. At this rate, we'll still be talking down to hayato about how bad his plan is and we'll no-lynch.

Anyway looking at the people who jumped onto the wagon.

VOTE: the bulge

It starts here. Obviously. Doesn't bother me too much because ok, fair enough, wagons can be scummy. Still wondering what makes me scummier than the other two, though...

You weren't the first on it, and you most aggressively pushed our plan as opposed to looking at hayato's. Aronis just didn't get it but he was trying to look at hayato's idea. TSO was the first onto the wagon and voting hayato wasn't the first thing on his mind.

About my vote, I distrust everyone on your wagon. Votes for something that is obviously dependent on playstyle instead of alignment is horrible for town, and bulge is pushing you the most suspiciously.

Oh now I get it! I'm scum because... I followed through with my vote?

I'm not voting you to "further my plan", I'm voting you because I think you are scum. Where did this assumption come from? Your plan makes it easier for scum early-game, so I think you are scum. It's that simple. This is nothing but OMGUS.

I'm not pushing for his lynch, I'm pushing my plan.
Also, isn't voting for me based on only this also dependent on playstyle instead of alignment?

So you're voting without pushing for a lynch? Instead, you're pushing your plan? Why exactly aren't you trying to lynch him if you think he's scum?

But I thought I was scum for backing myself up? Now you want me to give more proof? Hm.
Also, there's nothing wrong with voting without explicitly pushing for a lynch, especially this early in the game.

Basically, your vote was a gesture so you could appear to be participating while driving us all into endless setup speculation and madness!

Here's what points to you being mafia.

1) Your "playstyle" seems to be trying to keep us with no player information, which is indicative of scum. We lose out a lot by discussing how we use the fruit all day then having to compromise deadline lynch, and you seem to have 0 intention of talking about anything but the fruit.
2) You've decided he's scum to be lynched really fast.

I still stand by the fact that these are weak-ass reasons. Night actions are extremely important, and we hadn't decided on anything. Only scum would want strategy discussion to stop.

Oh, Now I see why you ran the two spoilers. This makes NO sense next to what you said in the other one. I was "waiting for the opportunity to jump onto hayato's plan." Where does this opportunity come from if the strategy discussion stops?

At the point I said this, I was fairly firmly in the camp that compulsory circle of fruit was the best. So were the majority of people. Why have all the pointless discussion when it's obvious what we're gonna do at night? IMO, it's more likely that scum want a large pointless strategy discussion to the exclusion of all else. You'll note I did keep talking about strategy despite voting you.

Bulge might be scum I'm just worried I could be confbiasing it because some of his stuff weirds me out.

Glad you acknowledge your reasons are weak. "Weird" is not a scumtell. It is, believe it or not, a playstyle issue. If I'm not mistaken

I'm not

, you strongly advocated against voting based on playstyle. And this is exactly what you're doing here.

Okaay. I think I addressed the whole playstyle thing in last post. And this is ALSO confbias, if you're even town. What exactly are you addressing with this post? You have no idea what I meant by "weirds me out" do you? (Tbf, I'm not even 100% sure I get it. You're also not sure what I'm talking about with playstyle based on what you put into this case... so yeah, I really dislike that you're trying to wreck my arguments with my own arguments misapplied. Could give examples but too lazy atm.

The mindset behind that post was "when I look at bulge, everything looks like scum... am I confbiasing?" The later posts were "When I look at bulge, everything looks like scum... IDGAF he's probably scum."

Assuming you mean go with the list order plan but don't make it mandatory...

1) Scum can lie about giving fruit. Read the setup. You are not informed of how much fruit you received. Multiple people can give to the same player and the recipient won't be notified of it.

This is weird. When you look back, TSO and I both completely misunderstood hayato's plan. Bulge didn't initially then DID in his later post? What?

Still don't understand this at all. See my last post.

Also, bulge just looks like scum to me.

VOTE: The Bulge

lol

If you want to be playing the game where we find scum and lynch them, i've found scum with bulge, help me lynch him?

lol

Because everything looks like it could have come from scum-bulge.

lol

Lol.

Hmm. Can someone who isn't tunneling really hard sort us out?