Twin Trap (Game Over) [TM2015]

[Brian Skies]

Hi! I have work soon but I should be caught up by tonight or tomorrow.

[Brian Skies]

Just checking in to say I'm still around and I'm on page 37. This game isn't very much fun to read and I need a break. I'll finish up later.

[Brian Skies]

Okay, so, I was going to finish catching up, but I think I'm just going to read pages 37+ when I no longer feel like this game is sucking the life out of me. I want to read it for context, but we only have about a day left and I kind of just want to talk to people. So I'm just going to throw out all my thoughts at this point and continue reading the other pages some other time.

First off, I think the Alchemist wagon was awful because he was townflailing like a champ, but I'm not going to harp on it because my predecessor and my teammates thought he was scummy at the time. And not only do I know I'm reading this game from a biased standpoint, I also know that I'm probably one of the few people that would read his posting as town. I have other thoughts about it, but I'm leaving it for the post game.

I don't really know most of you that well, and I do think this is a really difficult game, but here are my reads (towniest at the top):

Quilford

- I didn't like his early posting and I had some of the same thoughts as Alchemist early on in that Quilford's early read flip looked like him moving from a posture into an opportunistic wagon vote. I also didn't like him discrediting everything Alchemist said by claiming he wasn't scumhunting. However, I disagree with Alchemist in that Quilford wasn't scumhunting early on and I can see Quil taking some offense to that. I also think it's possible the read change was as a result of a reevaluation of Alchemist's posts. There's also some weird buddying that goes on between him and Mina, but I find it a little too blatant to come from actual scumbuddies. I don't remember which post it was, but I did find it a little weird that Quil was only interested in a towncase on him existing instead of the actual case. Other than that, I did like a lot of his more content-filled posts where he lays out his thoughts, and I thought a lot of them looked like they were coming from town. I also liked how he didn't just let ETL hammer Alchemist based on emotion. My predecessor and my teammates have generally thought he's town, and I'm inclined to agree with them.

BBMolla

- I didn't understand the townreads on BBMolla as I was reading through this game, but I'm hesitant to call him scum based on the conviction he displayed when he pushed through the Alchemist wagon. I didn't like how he mostly just scumread Alchemist off of an RVS comment he made during a time ETL and Mara were arguing about the RVS stage, and it surprises me that no one else pointed this out. I was also disappointed that he ignored Mara's plea to not lynch Alchemist (which was the whole point of her claiming Tracker) when he thought Serra was scummy regardless of Alchemist's alignment. Like, I can understand not wanting to lynch Patrick, but Mara was an uncc'ed claimed tracker and he was scumreading Serra (he does explain Serra had only 9 posts, but it's really ). I guess if he really thought Alchemist was scummy, I can see him going super tunnel mode (especially considering I fall victim to this a lot myself), but it makes me pretty unhappy to see. I also think it's possible that a lot of his read had to do with the Serra comment he quoted here. The fake hammer was kind of dumb, but I've seen enough terrible reaction tests that I don't have any thoughts on it and don't really care that it happened. I also had this small tinfoil theory that he was partners with Serra, but that was squashed when BB opened Day 2 stating he wanted to vote Serra.

Mina

- I don't know what it is, but I keep getting this nagging feeling that this could be scum. I had some concerns regarding the buddying between this slot and Quil's, but I guess it could just as easily be two town townreading each other, or one town getting buddied. I still think it's too blatant to come from two scumbuddies. There were some posts I didn't like from her, but I don't have the same issue with them after seeing them again.

ETL

- I didn't like her early on, but I know she can be a bit bullheaded in the early game and I've been in my own TvT with her before (see Snork v Brian here). I remember seeing a lurking related comment, and some of my teammates seemed a little suspicious of her earlier, but I can think of at least one other [recent] instance where she admitted she was struggling with real life obligations. While I've seen her as town a lot, I've only seen her as scum once (here) and from what I remember, she wasn't really that engaged in the game or trying very hard. A lot of her play here feels like her town game to me. I think the biggest thing that concerns me is her Serra read, but I think I can see why she'd be townreading him. I have a small worry that if she's scum, she could have been trying to distance from Serra early on this day phase or bus him because he's expendable from the tracker flip. I also did see some of her teammates thinking I could be town for replacing in as a chronic lurker, which I guess makes some sense if I think about it, but I don't know why it's even a thing. I don't know if it's been asked/answered, but I noticed my partners wanted to know why ETL was voting for Patrick yesterday when Mara's reasoning for the lynch wasn't that satisfactory. Also some comments from STD/Ceph wondering why ETL voted Patrick despite not being a top scumread of hers regardless of Alchemist's alignment and being less likely to be scum if Alchemist were town (this isn't something I remember very clearly and I need to check up on it).

Serra/Johnny

- The only game I think I've been in with Serra is this one. He was a lot more active there, but I get the same feeling from his thoughts and progression. I haven't had much of a chance to read through Johnny's posting, but the thing that stands out most to me is the way he's catching up. I guess the game's pretty dense and I'm not surprised to see him want to go a few pages at a time as I have done it before (town, scum; I think there's a pretty big difference between my two catch-ups, and not just because the PbPA I did in the scum game was completely unnecessary ). But the only other times I've seen someone else do it that way were when Penny did it here and Jagged did it here. And in both instances they seemed pretty forced. Johnny's catch-up also reads more like a commentary than an actual analysis.

I don't actually have a placement for Patrick right now (if I did, I'd have him about on par with Mina). I've generally had the feeling he's been trying to figure the game out, but I don't actually remember what his thoughts have been as I've mostly been glazing through his posts and this game has been a pretty dense read. My teammates have stated a townread here at some point, as well as a small paranoia that we're fucked if we're dealing with a Patrick/Mina scumteam.

I've also been wondering about the Day 1 lynch and wondering why there wasn't a counterwagon. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the scum didn't join the wagon, and it's one of the reasons why I have ETL near the bottom of my list (the only people left off the wagon are my slot and hers).

I know there isn't a lot of time left, but it's 6 in the morning and I'm going to sleep. I also believe I can convince you I'm town before the end of this day phase.

[Brian Skies]

Brian, I think if I was reading your comments on people without knowing that your list goes from town to scum, I wouldn't much idea what your overall opinion was on most of the players. You have bbmolla as second most town, but your entire paragraph about him seems pretty negative. ETL is your second scummiest but reading your analysis of her it sounds more like you think she's town:

While I've seen her as town a lot, I've only seen her as scum once (here) and from what I remember, she wasn't really that engaged in the game or trying very hard. A lot of her play here feels like her town game to me. I think the biggest thing that concerns me is her Serra read, but I think I can see why she'd be townreading him. I have a small worry that if she's scum, she could have been trying to distance from Serra early on this day phase or bus him because he's expendable from the tracker flip.

Is your biggest concern about her just that the serra read might be distancing from him? Even though you can see where it comes from?

I also did see some of her teammates thinking I could be town for replacing in as a chronic lurker, which I guess makes some sense if I think about it, but I don't know why it's even a thing.

Can you clarify this? Which teammates of ETLs said this and where?

Is Johnny your top suspect at the moment? Your list implies he is, but I can't get a good feel from your comments on what you find suspicious.

That's fine. I think someone else had the same impression of my last major reads list in Survivor Mafia and it's why I said the towniest was at the top. I just condensed my concerns into my reads so people can help me sort out my thoughts.

I'm not confident in my reads, but that's where I'm leaning. I do think ETL can be town and BB can be scum, and I've stated why. That's just where I have them in relation to everyone else right now.

I think I confused ETL's teammates comments on Quil as them commenting on me replacing in. I was skimming the posts after I replaced in to see if people needed something from me like a claim. I can see why ETL might think Serra's town from his posting because they look similar to his town posting, but I have no idea why she was town reading him.

Yes, I am leaning towards lynching Johnny. I don't know his circumstances, but my predecessor generally got the feeling Serra didn't care that much about this game. I did look at some of those games Johnny provided and it seems he does catch up in the same way when he replaces in as town, but it's not something I don't think can easily be faked. I also want to lynch him because I think his flip can shed light on BB and ETL's alignment.

I do think ETL may have been distancing. If ETL isn't scum, then town let scum push a mislynch through a whiteknighting claimed tracker (which is still a very real possibility, but not the one I'm leaning towards right now. And if that is the case, then I think people should be more skeptical of how some players treated Mara's insistence that Alchemist was town instead of trusting a strong read from an uncc'ed tracker.

Did ETL ever explain her vote on Patrick yesterday?

What are your reads? I see you have them, but you seem heavily invested in getting information and don't make any strong pushes anywhere. It seems really cautious.

[Brian Skies]

Survivor Mafia references: reads list, reiteration, comment

[Brian Skies]

The legit Brian from Anything Goes is from two years ago and was in that game from the beginning, not replacing 43 pages into the game with little over 2 days left.

I also don't understand what you mean by Brian bot. You're near the top of my reads list and I'm not even pushing to lynch you.

I'm not saying you have to sheep her scumread because she never explained it, but considering she outed herself to save someone she was convinced was town, I'd like to think people would want to consider what she's saying instead of discrediting her and calling her bad. It's like, you have someone who just confirmed themself as town to you and most people in this game preferred to ignore the possibility of working with her and would rather let the possibility of scum manipulate their reads.

This

is my issue with the Alchemist wagon and why people should be a little skeptical of it if it's not a Serra/ETL scumteam.

[Brian Skies]

Also, I've reached the point where even though I'm not confident my reads are correct, there's no way I'm ever getting lynched this game.

[Brian Skies]

Sure, most people seem to be paranoid of my slot and I don't see my role being that useful aside from miraculously lynching the watcher-immune goon today. And I agree that we don't have a lot of time left for me to convince you I'm town instead of using this time to lynch someone that's not me.

I'd also love to see your reads knowing that my slot's town.

[Brian Skies]

My teammates didn't think my action would be useful with a claimed tracker on Day 1 unless the scumteam sent the wrong person in for the kill, so BPC checked Quil for the lolz. Obviously, no one visited him.

[Brian Skies]

Probably, but I don't consider myself someone that's easy to read for most players.

[Brian Skies]

I feel bad for my teammates that I had to claim, but the deadline is an issue and I want to hit scum today.

[Brian Skies]

Me claiming doesn't actually do anything for my reads. Js. Unless you're all pretty set on townreading each other and scumreading the Serra/ETL pair, in which case, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. I still haven't read pages 37-43, and I don't know if I'm ever going to.

@ETL: Why did your read on Serra drop from here to here?

[Brian Skies]

Vote: Johnny

In case I'm unable to post tomorrow.

[Brian Skies]

I was at work and that's why I voted yesterday.

[Brian Skies]

CES hasn't said much about bbmolla, except a few days ago when he said that all of (Mina, Quilford, bbmolla) look sufficiently town that we could probably win by just lynching everyone else. That was before Brians claim though.

I don't understand why my claim would change this if you still think scum can be in etl, serra.

[Brian Skies]

I think that if Serra flips tracker immune, there's a good chance etl's scum. If he flips anything else, then I think the players who let the alchemistime lynch through should be scrutinized. I was bothered a bit by Mina'a cheerleading there, but her reactions this day phase currently make me think otherwise.

[Brian Skies]

BB serra is more likely in my opinion because he tried to push through alchemisr lynch despite saying serra was a scum read regardless of alchemists flip. I don't know if he's the type to try and tie his buddies to townflips, but it's something I do as scum and scI'm hunt for.

[Brian Skies]

Brian, though I would like it to be Johnny/ETL, it doesn't mean your claim has no effect whatsoever. You were a major suspect before.

Yea, but it doesn't change your lynch pool except that in the case one of serra or etl are town, you have to replace me with someone else.

Who do you think might be scum if it's boy both of them.

[Brian Skies]

Not*

[Brian Skies]

I'm also pretty sad ETL hasn't shown up to answer my question. I have no idea why her read on serra dropped during that time span and it bothers me that it does after marathon claims tracker.

[Brian Skies]

The first time I saw it I thought he meant espionage as well and thought Quil was an espeonage alt.

[Brian Skies]

See you all in the post game.

[Brian Skies]

Why those two?

[Brian Skies]

Idk. I think this is a game I'd be relieved to not be in lylo.

[Brian Skies]

Is your gut good at this game?

[Brian Skies]

That's goodd to hear. What show did u put on?

[Brian Skies]

Happy belated b day etl.

[Brian Skies]

@ETL: Why did your read on Serra drop from here to here?

[Brian Skies]

I don't understand if you had a claim from Brian why didn't you lynch me? this makes so sense...

I'm trying to think in what scenario this post should make me feel dread in lynching Johnny over ETL, but I can't think of one.