NY 183 - Apocalypse Mafia

[Rubicon]

You also literally argue that Dave is scummy because of the way he uses emoticons.

You say he only uses them when he's laughing off the idea he's scum (which is scummy how?) and then you point out that he used one to talk about Creative in 499... which wasn't about him being scum, but that doesn't seem to bother you...

[Rubicon]

1939 Tries to argue any associatives with Boonskiies should be disregarded, on rather shaky ground.

Boonskiies was a traitor. How is that shaky ground?

Your reasoning is so weird here. You think the scum team knew Dave was scum -- so your other scum suspect, Grib, knowingly killed his own partner? What?

[Rubicon]

I dunno man, you talk a lot about dave's position on mislynch wagons, but he was also on all three scum wagons (Boonskiies, Klingoncelt, and ika) which probably puts him in a better position than you.

[Drixx]

I don't ever defend the play of a player who was on the slot before me, unless absolutely necessary.

I'm sure you can find things that don't make perfect sense in my post. That's what happens when you read through 100+ posts and context and try to evaluate them honestly. You don't have to agree but you seem to have just looked for reasons to dismiss it. Anything that you couldn't dismiss you didn't address at all.

As a basic axiom of mafia:

Town players tend to just say what they believe, from memory, and don't tend to check every little detail to make sure everything lines up.

Scum players have to fake being town, so everything they do is a narrative. As such, they are constantly checking the details to ensure they line up.


You basically just outed me as town by pointing out my case has flaws and contradictions. Thanks... I guess?

[Grib]

You basically just outed me as town by pointing out my case has flaws and contradictions. Thanks... I guess?

what

[Drixx]

You basically just outed me as town by pointing out my case has flaws and contradictions. Thanks... I guess?

what

If I were scum, don't you think I would have spent those hours putting together a more convincing narrative?

If you don't think I have it in me, go take a look at the SMITE game that recently ended.

[Rubicon]

Townies can make flawed cases, but the effort you put into twisting

everything

he said in a negative light implies you're not evaluating him honestly, but trying to make him look as bad as possible to get him lynched.

[Rubicon]

What do you guys think about the following reasoning? This may seem unimportant but I'm going somewhere with it.

Drixx was tracked going nowhere on the night RIP claimed to receive No Result. Therefore he wasn't responsible for the No Result, and can only be scum with a partner who was responsible for it.

davesaz was checked as town by Grib. Therefore he can only be scum if he's a Godfather. Therefore he wasn't responsible for the No Result, since a Godfather can't roleblock people.

Conclusions:
- If there is only one scum left, it's neither Drixx nor davesaz.
- If there are two scum left, it's not Drixx and davesaz

together

-- one or the other, but not both.

Does this make sense?

[Rubicon]

I think I may have figured this game out.

[elusive]

I sort of follow but I will also sheep you even though your old man avatar scared me today.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I think I may have figured this game out.

I'm interested in what you have to say.

[RIP]

Yes rubi, say what u found and let's get the game going ffs

[RIP]

Let's ignore claims and lynch scummy mofos. I lost a game already where scum had good claims and knew which roles weren't in the game etc.

[Drixx]

If you've figured out the game and it has me in the scum pile, go back to the drawing board.

By the way, what you described might better be referred to as "confirmation bias". Davesaz laid out a naked vote (despite criticizing them earlier ... a pattern I noticed when I read his ISO ... he's a very "Do as I say not as I do" figure in this game) and it felt scummy. So I went through his entire ISO looking to see if he was consistently scummy. Yep. Lots of stuff in there that I wouldn't expect to see in a town ISO. One could easily argue that I went looking for scum indicators and so confbias showed them to me.

I would like to think I'm a little better at thinking about what I read than that, but I guess we'll see how it plays out.

[Rubicon]

tl;dr -- At least one of RIP/Nero/Vampirate is mafia. Lynch RIP -> Vamp -> Nero -> one of dave/drixx (do them last) and win.

Who should we rule out as lynches? Since BBT is the only PR left who can still use his power, he's going to die soon if he's town. So strategically, we can set him aside for the moment. elusive is town for the N1 no kill and by her meta. Grib is town because we don't have a mafia vigilante who shot his own partner for no good reason. And because I know how to read Grib and he's just 100% town.

That leaves RIP, Nero Cain, Vampirate, Drixx, Dave.

Based on 4282, one of RIP, Nero Cain and Vampirate is mafia.

We have four lynches left. If there is only one mafia (which I believe), lynching those three first wins the game.

If there are two mafia, lynching those three first will snag at least one, maybe both. If you run the numbers, in the worst case that puts us in LyLo having to decide between Dave and Drixx. But with another scum dead, we may have enough information to solve that based on interactions.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

OK, can we do Nero first then?

[Rubicon]

I'm okay with doing them in any order, though I personally think Nero is least likely.

[Vampirate]

I'm okay with doing them in any order, though I personally think Nero is least likely.

Why RIP first though? Are you trying to get the most information out of the lynch?

[davesaz]

Replying to Drixx:

Reaction test. Did you ask me about it, or use it as an excuse to go searching for borderline things you could call scummy?
It's also a reaction test for some others -- do they pile on or question what you posted.
The one I thought was townier questioned what you posted. The one I thought was scummier piled on. Though I doubt, if there were two scum, that both would jump so quickly and so hard.
Someone is absent from the discussion. I considered waiting on this reply...

To Rubicon: With one scum, one of RIP and Nero Cain have to be lying. Unless we have a town PR who hasn't revealed, which would be a huge derp at this point. With two scum, then I agree that lynch pool pretty much has to yield at least one scum. The only way it wouldn't yield scum is if we had two and it was both you and BBT, which I just can't see with the posting records.

Pedit: I had something written on the subject of Nero or RIP first, but would like to see BBT's reply.

[davesaz]

EBWOP: the naked vote was a reaction test...

[Rubicon]

Vampirate, I put RIP first because (1) him lying about his No Result is the

simplest

explanation for what happened, and (2) I can think of more reasons for you and Nero to be town than him. But again, as long as we lynch those three first, we should win no matter what order we do them in.

[Drixx]

Bull - Shite. Period.

[Rubicon]

Pardon?

[Drixx]

Directed at Davesaz trying to claim he was reaction testing me with the naked vote.

He was setting up a vote on my slot for a long time, ergo the "I've been thinking about this for awhile" comment he made (paraphrasing from memory, feel free to see exactly what he said) along with the vote.

[Rubicon]

Oh. What do you think of 4282 and 4289?