Mini 1701 - Modified Werewolf 13er

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Alright, so the first thing I noticed is that there are three votecounts (two wagons) where we have no flip and my first thought is, is that intentional?

We have the early RC wagon (418) and the Absta wagon (891 and 972). Keyser is the only person on both those wagons. It's a minor point, but it caught my attention. Another thing that caught my attention is Keyser being reluctant to join wagons - he sits in the 'Not Voting' section way too much for my liking, especially for someone as active as he was.

OK, so starting from the beginning I focused on what happened to the Woody wagon - Keyser was first to unvote. I initially thought this unlikely to come from scum because Woody just kept getting scummier with every response, however, after looking over Keyser's post I don't really get why he unvoted? Like, he seems to suggest he unvoted because Woody is an easy lynch...not because he has done anything town. In fact, in his unvote post (207) he outright states that Woody has reacted 'negatively/poorly' to the pressure applied on him.

I think Keyser was jumping off a wagon that he expected to go through. The timing of it is interesting as well because it's not long after Bulba joined it - two scum on an early wagon like that isn't ideal for VCA purposes.

Next, we see the arrival of two new wagons - Boon and Absta (550). We can see the Absta wagon was town driven - town driven wagons are like a goldmine for scum. Boon and Redff hop on board the Absta wagon. I feel like Redff's vote is solidly reasoned in 531, Boon's however, is not.

Boon's scumread on Absta starts back in 326 - it's very vague though. He 'doesn't like Absta's answers to some of the questions', he does elaborate a little further in 327 but it's weak and I don't know how Boon is getting a scum read from that post. He states in 338 that he is null/lean scum on Absta - does this read ever change? From 338 until Absta was lynched, did Boon ever reevaluate that read? In fact, I'm struggling to remember Boon reevaluating any of his reads and this is a serious red flag for me - he is repeating the exact same behaviour with Redff now.

459 and Asbta becomes his top scum read...he begins to think Keyser could be town. Note - there is no elaboration on his earlier reasoning for Absta being scum.

485 and 487 - This is reaching. Boon is looking hard to find reasons to justify his vote, he knows his earlier reasoning isn't solid enough to push that wagon. Fuck, Boon might be scum. Is that why I'm still alive? You want bragging rights Boon? I have pretty much had you as town all game and have paid very little attention to you up until now.

Up to VC in 55p - breaking it up in the hopes people actually read what I'm saying.

UNVOTE:

PEdit - Red, can you not like lie down and die please? Thanks.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Not much has changed in 678 - Kmd has jumped ship from the Absta wagon to the Boon wagon.

However, Banakai is just starting to gain some attention. We know Banakai is pushing the Boon wagon - ballsy move if Boon is his buddy but certainly possible. We also know Bulba is not voting - what is Banakai's other buddy doing? Surely both scum are not sitting in the 'Not Voting' section as their buddy starts getting some heat? I think the other scum is much more likely to be pushing another wagon - making sure their vote counts. This, again, points to Redff and Boon. For reasons explained earlier, Boon is much more likely to be scum here.

Moving onto 728 - Bulba and Boon have joined the Banakai wagon. They join the wagon on the same page, there's not even 2 hours between the votes. I'm having serious trouble seeing both scum jump on their buddy like that - that would annoy the shit out of me if I was scum being bussed like that. Boon's vote is, again, seriously lacking explanation (710). Is this scum theatre? Are Boon and Banakai trying to distance from one another? Banakai's 'case' on Boon was shaky at best and as we can see, Boon's vote is out of the blue. In fact, I noted at the time that the change in Boon's read on Banakai concerned me.

840 is an important VC - we have 3 competing wagons and we know one was on scum and one was on town. The problem is that Absta's wagon has so many unflipped people on it - is this intentional? Is that where the last scum is hiding and he doesn't want to narrow down the lynch options? This is based on Boon not bussing though and I have to admit that I find it hard to believe both Bulba and Boon bussed their buddy like that - seems extreme. Unless Boon prioritised his own life above Banakai's, which is entirely possible.

The Absta wagon has sprung up from nowhere - this is the second time this has happened. Redff, Keyser and Doctor have joined it. Redff joined the wagon and began pushing it as a 3rd option to Banakai and Boon - starting another wagon to counter Banakai? He can't join the Boon wagon after stating it had 'scummy looking players on it' (782) so Absta is his next best thing if he is scum with Banakai and wants to save him. If he is scum with Banakai though, why even mention Boon wagon is bad? He could just jump on it otherwise. Yeah, I'm OK with this vote.

Keyser's reasoning for hopping on board the Absta wagon is...non existant? (805). Like, he states most of his town reads are on Banakai wagon (great reason to join it, no?) and most of his scum reads are on the Boon wagon but due to him town reading Boon he didn't want to join that wagon either. I actually don't see any reasoning for Keyser joining the Absta wagon other than he doesn't like the two leading wagons at that time...despite having enough reason to jump aboard the Banakai wagon. He states he dislikes the Banakai wagon because of possible opportunistic votes from myself and Asbta - votes that could only be opportunistic if Banakai was town - which we know he was not.

Doctor's vote on Asbta is also lacking any real explanation - I mean, what the hell was that? (808). For that point in the game, Doctor's vote on the Absta wagon was seriously shaky...how the hell did I miss that. I feel scum!Doctor would be much more likely to want to keep Boon alive (because of his antics) than Absta who had spells of solid posting.

Not much change into 891 - a Tony wagon picks up and I jump ship from Banakai to Tony.

Finally, we have the Banakai lynch and a completely unflipped wagon on Absta. Based on D1 VCA, I think Boon could be scum. However, my gut is telling me that the last scum is hiding on the Absta wagon - the wagon has no flips. Doctor has been doing VCA for some time, I could absolutely see his strategy coming from him. Based on his play overall though, I still think he is town.

It's between Boon and Keyser for me and I'm actually starting to think it could be Boon.

Hoping to get some D2 VCs and VCA done tomorrow night.

[Doctor Who]

BBT - I am reading what you are posting.

Keyser asked the mod who confirmed that the scum don't have daytalk. Without being able to coordinate on Day 1, they would be playing relatively vanilla. Nothing ballsy. At 728 you pointed out Boon and Bulb joined the Banakai wagon. That's too ballsy.

You have also noted that Day 1 reasons for votes were weak, I'd argue that Day 1 votes are generally weak. You've assigned weak votes to more players than there are scum remaining.

[Doctor Who]

BBT - when you get to Day 2 I'm curious to know your take on this lynch wagon.

Day 2: 6 votes required out of 11 players - Deadline is (expired on 2015-08-07 13:30:00); updated through post 1311
Name_______________Count___Voters (Post)

Zoronos

_____________6______

RedCoyote (979), Kmd4390 (1001),

Keyser Söze (1148), redFF (1259),

absta101 (1285)

, Boonskiies (1311)
BlueBloodedToffee___1______Doctor Who (1014)

Kmd4390_____________1______Zoronos (1033)

redFF_______________1______BlueBloodedToffee (1177)
TonyMontana_________1______

Bulbazoor (1194)

unvote______________1______

TonyMontana (1211)

[Doctor Who]

Finally, we have the Banakai lynch and a completely unflipped wagon on Absta. Based on D1 VCA, I think Boon could be scum. However, my gut is telling me that the last scum is hiding on the Absta wagon - the wagon has no flips. Doctor has been doing VCA for some time, I could absolutely see his strategy coming from him. Based on his play overall though, I still think he is town.

Here's that lynch wagon. It'd be way too ballsy for all three scum to be on the lynch wagon - this is part of why I think you and Boon are town. This game isn't completely vanilla - there is a cop. That adds to the riskiness. A scum team that didn't have an opportunity to collude wouldn't all vote one of their own out day 1.

Wagon 4

Day 1: 7 votes required out of 13 players - Deadline is (expired on 2015-08-07 13:30:00); updated through post 964
Name_______________Count___Voters (Post)

Banakai

_____________7______

Haschel Cedricson

(502),

RedCoyote (649)

,

Bulbazoor (702)

, Boonskiies (710), BlueBloodedToffee (940),

absta101 (941)

,

Banakai

(964)

absta101

____________3______redff (790), Keyser Söze (805), Doctor Who (808)
Boonskiies__________2______

Kmd4390 (592), TonyMontana (839)

TonyMontana_________1______

Zoronos (850)

[Doctor Who]

BBT at this point, I doubt he had a guilty. If he did, why not out it straight out. Anyway, I think it is bbt/redff with a hint of tony in it. Real angel should out since we need a clear to lead us today.

You doubt he had a guilty? The only person who shouldn't have any doubt is town-bulb. So I'm starting to doubt that town-bulb is in this game.

If you want Angel to claim, maybe you should claim Angel.
If I'm alive tomorrow, I'd rather be alive with an angel alive, because sacrificing our last card today doesn't seem very beneficial.
It's LyLo tomorrow if we don't get scum today. LyLo with an angel sounds better than an angel "leader" for the day.

p-edit: I'm keeping my vote off for now, BBT, I want to ensure we hear more from everyone. But I'm onboard.

Also, just wanted to point out something that caught my eye, RC on the topic of seer claiming:

I don't think the Seer should claim, guilty or no. That's easy enough to figure out later down the road (if they have a guilty and are killed before they tell us).

Granted, this was on D2, but it could be instructive as to whether RC would've claimed if he did have a guilty.

Seer flipped, a seer who came straight into D3 with a vendetta against Bulba.
This was no coincidence, and it is also why RC got killed, because it must have been clear as day to scum that RC was the seer.

VOTE: Bulbazoor

I was all about "hey, let's talk it over", but I think we have an advantage now, so let's run with it.
Insha'Allah, the angel will get through yet another night.

Interesting comment - does this clear BlueBloodedToffee?

This comment stood out to me as well, sounded like BBT was not an option to him. In other comments he doesn't seem to write off BBT as a potential candidate, so I'm not sure now..

BBT - I re-read Tony a bit too. The above three posts were a decent indication he was the Angel right before he was NK'd. Part of your reasoning was "why am I still alive to push redFF if redFF is scum", well this could be explained by the last scum gunning for the Angel.

Tony made a good point about LYLO - having the angel around for that would basically mean that the angel would determine the final lynch.

Further, look who were both onto Tony Day 3:

is absta and tony too obvious a scumteam here?

i feel like the kmd kill and flip is supposed to make us look at the first few votes on the zoronos wagon, but i think absta's hop on it reeks of opportunistic scum, same with his hop on the banakai wagon day 1, except that was a bus

vote:absta

Y the way things went, I would lynch red or tony. Add bbt.

[Shinobi]

Vote Count

redFF

(2):

Doctor Who, Boonskiies

Not Voting

(3):

BlueBloodedToffee, redFF, Keyser Söze

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2015-09-17 14:30:00)

[Doctor Who]

So the thread has been a little slow, so I thought I'd look into redFF some more.

Note the reaction to Woody's claim.

goddamnit why did u claim we're not even 12 hours into day 1 lol

villager is what a mafia would claim since its an open setup so u claiming early does nothing to show that you are town

why would u claim lol

godammnit

woody is scrub overly defensive town or werewolf

Contrast that to asking Banakai for a claim. Night and Day. Really looks like he's playing nice with his scumbuddy as if to say "claim something to get off the hook".

intent to hammer
claim pls

"Darn, someone lynched my scumbuddy but that won't stop me from getting town cred."

danmn i wanted the hammer

redFF pretty clearly disavows being the Angel with this post. This is important because the last NK was on the Angel. The last thing scum-redFF wants is to be in LYLO with the angel. Since he can't counterclaim, the angel claims and decides who is being lynched. Scum would rather have more control in LYLO.

haschel was the obvious nightkill, not sure what angel was doing

im fine with lynching absta or bbt

[Shinobi]

Prods out.

[redFF]

doctor who stop being bad im town

[Doctor Who]

doctor who stop being bad im town

Then make your cases. Do some research. Hunt scum or be hunted.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Not much has happened - I'll be here tonight to start D2 VCA.

People should start posting.

[Boonskiies]

Not much has happened - I'll be here tonight to start D2 VCA.

People should start posting.

[Keyser Söze]

I hope to post my read on BlueBloodedToffee in the next 24 hours.

7 days til the deadline.

[Doctor Who]

If there is a dead QT, I wonder what they're saying about the game at this point.

"So close to victory"

"Win one for the Gipper"

"Its kind of ironic that DW is doing the most posting now"

[Doctor Who]

You know, now that I put all the pieces together about all the players, I'm pretty convinced that the last two scum are in {redFF, Bulba and absta} anyway.

[Doctor Who]

Where have all, the players gone?

[Shinobi]

redFF is being replaced.

[Doctor Who]

redFF is being replaced.

Or we lynch him. You know where my vote is.

[Shinobi]

Mass prods out. Again. This is the last mass prod that I will be sending out this game - mass replace/modkills will be my next course of action if people don't start playing.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Sorry guys, super busy at this time of the year.

I think I have some free time tomorrow night - I'll get to this then.

[Boonskiies]

I have really nothing to say.

[Doctor Who]

Between keyser and bbt we just need one vote. Come on people.

[Shinobi]

Dierfire replaces redFF.

[Doctor Who]

Dierfire, the seer nailed you as scum: any last words?